All Forums > SimLeague Basketball > Theme Leagues > DH $52 Division Draft Analysis / League Prediction
6/7/2013 7:36 PM
Atlantic

Team PPG PPG A Diff efg efg A Diff FTM FTM A Diff
Ash "Funktown" Mustangs 121.3 114.8 6.5 55.60% 51.12% 4.48% 19.0 19.8 -0.8
Big Fun-duh-Mental 121.6 115.0 6.6 53.83% 51.83% 1.99% 16.7 16.1 0.6
For All My Daughters 120.9 122.0 -1.2 52.56% 54.39% -1.82% 20.7 19.1 1.7
Space Ghost 108.5 111.8 -3.3 51.64% 52.96% -1.32% 15.3 15.4 -0.1
The Brothers Brandon 124.7 122.0 2.7 55.26% 54.41% 0.85% 20.0 16.1 4.0
Phi Slamma Jamma 105.5 118.2 -12.7 49.43% 56.07% -6.64% 14.7 17.0 -2.2


Team Tov% Tov% A Diff Orb% Dreb% Cred Poss Poss A Diff
Ash "Funktown" Mustangs 16.15% 15.04% 1.11% 27.98% 74.92% 102.90% 123.1 122.7 0.4
Big Fun-duh-Mental 13.49% 14.18% -0.69% 31.17% 73.42% 104.59% 124.9 122.1 2.8
For All My Daughters 13.81% 14.63% -0.82% 27.85% 71.73% 99.58% 124.2 124.6 -0.4
Space Ghost 14.36% 13.70% 0.65% 26.99% 72.20% 99.19% 115.5 116.2 -0.7
The Brothers Brandon 15.03% 14.39% 0.64% 31.14% 70.80% 101.94% 125.4 125.1 0.3
Phi Slamma Jamma 13.09% 15.46% -2.37% 22.42% 67.01% 89.43% 115.4 118.7 -3.2


6/7/2013 8:02 PM

Atlantic

Doing the best I can with my tables, WIS formatting is a pain.

Note that for the tables I calculated team tov%, oreb% and dreb%; the league averages are:

Tov% 14.90%

Oreb% 28.38%

Dreb% 71.62%

Playoffs look safe

Ash: While only averaging 0.4 more possessions a game than opponents Ash is doing a WHOLE lot more with his. Efg advantage of 4.48%, best dreb% in the division at 74.92%, more than makes up for slightly losing the FTM and TO battles. Ash entered as one of the favorites in the East and continues to be so.

Felonius: Best oreb% in the division at 31.17%, also winning the possession battle by 2.8 per game. Ahead of opponents in every key measurement to date. Felonius continues to look like a very safe bet for the playoffs.

Still in the hunt:

98average: Getting outscored, being out shot, behind on possessions and rebounding, but is winning the FTM and TOV battles keeps 98 on the bubble.

Longtallbrad: actually is behind opponents across the board in key stat areas, but his on paper rebounding coming in to the season was much better than performance to date. His current record keeps him in the hunt for now and his rebounding numbers should get a little better after these next 12 versus the West.

Tar: This team has FAR better comparative numbers than its record. While no longer the favorite for the division IMO this team is very much in the hunt for the playoffs. Tar is losing the TO battle and his defensive rebounding is very low, but his oreb% is near the top, he is winning the possession and shooting battles and outscoring opponents by 2.7ppg, all of which and more is due to his 4.0ppg advantage at the stripe. I still expect tar to make a strong surge and would be more surprised if he missed the playoffs than if he made it at this point.

Still Toast:

ICC: On the bright side this team is winning the TO battle and is far ahead of pace for Vance’s 8-win prediction. The numbers speak for themselves for the remainder of this team’s eval.

6/7/2013 9:01 PM
Central

  PPG PPG A Diff efg efg A Diff FTM FTM A Diff
KAJ33+3's 132.8 130.6 2.2 59.31% 56.98% 2.34% 18.6 17.8 0.8
Don't Call It A Comeback 128.0 121.8 6.2 57.14% 52.93% 4.21% 17.5 23.2 -5.7
Three Star Ego Strokers 126.8 123.3 3.5 57.15% 54.52% 2.63% 20.2 17.0 3.2
DurantsDynamicDozen 126.1 123.0 3.1 55.92% 53.42% 2.50% 20.8 19.0 1.8
KT's Nowitzki Loneriders 118.2 121.0 -2.7 53.66% 55.81% -2.15% 19.5 21.6 -2.1
Tsunami Crew 119.5 130.4 -10.9 52.32% 59.76% -7.45% 18.7 19.8 -1.0


  Tov% Tov% A Diff Orb% Dreb% Cred Poss Poss A Diff
KAJ33+3's 15.30% 14.63% 0.67% 27.62% 69.96% 97.58% 125.9 128.5 -2.6
Don't Call It A Comeback 14.99% 15.88% -0.89% 27.21% 74.28% 101.49% 127.3 126.7 0.6
Three Star Ego Strokers 16.78% 15.31% 1.47% 28.74% 72.60% 101.33% 126.5 126.8 -0.3
DurantsDynamicDozen 16.82% 15.46% 1.36% 30.58% 72.28% 102.86% 128.3 128.1 0.2
KT's Nowitzki Loneriders 14.72% 13.16% 1.56% 27.79% 75.77% 103.56% 120.5 117.2 3.3
Tsunami Crew 12.73% 15.52% -2.79% 25.15% 70.19% 95.33% 122.9 123.2 -0.2
6/7/2013 9:06 PM

Central

Playoffs look safe

NONE

Playing for 4 playoff spots or 3?

IMO the biggest question in the Central is how many playoff spots can the top-4 teams claim? All four are exactly 10-3 at home, meaning the winner of the division will be in a FAR better position than the rest come playoff time.

Badja: How does a team lose the possession and TO battles with the lowest dreb% in  the division lead after 26 games? Well, a team efg of 59.31% has EVERYTHING to do with that. I’m not surprised by badja’s shooting as I noted when I updated my initial evals and dubbed this team a playoff contender. Currently this team enjoys a 2-game lead, but opponents efg is at an insane 56.98%. The next 12 games will be VERY interesting for badja, is his high efg due to the weak D of the division? Is his high efg against due to the high efg of the division or his own weak D? These questions should be answered in the next 12 as he will face teams with much lower efg’s and much stronger D. IMO I’d still have to slate badja as the 4th most likely team of the top-4 in the division to make the playoffs, but for now he enjoys the lead.

Sly: Has had some inconsistent runs and giving up 5.7 more points per game than scoring from the stripe has as I predicted been the serious issue with this team. Winning the TO battle, best dreb% in the division, 4.21% efg advantage, and 6.2ppg advantage. Sly is still the favorite, but his ride will be a lot bumpier than he originally thought it would.

Natenoy: FT advantage has appeared to normalize after a 16-5 start during this current 5-game losing streak. Tov% of 16.78 is exactly what happens to a team that uses 75 mpg of .5 usage, another 28 of 1.0 usage, has high tov% PG’s and tries to run uptempo. Too few RL possessions for this team to be running uptempo. Data also indicates that Vance was correct with his assertion that sub-40 D of Daugherty would not be covered up by 90D players as efg% against is higher than others in the division with much lower weighted averages on D. This team is stuck with the issues on D, but is switching to HC for at least the next 12 games in hopes that a significant TOV% reduction will return it near the top of the division. I’m still feeling my 30 home wins and a playoff spot with this squad, but if badja stays where he is, tar comes back, FT advantage drops any further and TOV% isn’t managed by going HC, then this team could miss the playoffs.

DH: Like my team TOV% has been a KILLER. Dreb% a little low but best oreb% in the division and aside from TO’s has an advantage in all remaining areas. This team is still solid and the best from Durant may still be to come, IMO DH will feast on the West over the next 12 and it would take a lot more bad luck than good for this team to miss the playoffs.

Still Toast

Kat: Solid rebounding advantage has this team as the best of the “toast” teams, but as I originally noted this is NOT a good division for Kat because of the horrible matchups. The next 12 games will give a good read on how good this team could have been had DH not screwed it by drafting it in the Central.

Banditone: I won’t be surprised if this team also comes out of the next 12 at no worse than 6-6, but in this division banditone’s lottery ticket for the next draft is very safely in hand at this point.

6/7/2013 9:18 PM
Awesome read Nate. Seeing stats this in depth and the analysis to boot really makes this so much more enjoyable than just any old theme league.
6/7/2013 10:13 PM (edited)
 Midwest PPG PPG A Diff efg efg A Diff FTM FTM A Diff
Living Loving Maid 119.5 118.6 0.9 58.69% 52.88% 5.81% 16.9 19.0 -2.1
King Kong D 119.5 115.2 4.3 53.81% 52.82% 0.99% 18.5 18.0 0.6
Red Hot 106.0 105.7 0.3 50.95% 52.43% -1.48% 17.0 16.1 1.0
So You're Telling Me  114.6 116.5 -1.9 54.52% 52.56% 1.96% 19.5 17.1 2.4
Brave Dragons 116.5 114.5 2.0 52.31% 52.52% -0.21% 17.4 17.6 -0.2
What Was I Doing 103.0 107.6 -4.5 48.72% 52.52% -3.81% 16.8 17.9 -1.1

  Tov% Tov% A Diff Orb% Dreb% Cred Poss Poss A Diff
Living Loving Maid 17.79% 15.95% 1.84% 23.51% 68.99% 92.51% 118.9 124.9 -6.0
King Kong D 15.49% 15.14% 0.35% 34.33% 72.67% 107.00% 124.4 120.4 4.0
Red Hot 13.96% 14.59% -0.63% 30.20% 72.89% 103.09% 113.0 110.8 2.2
So You're Telling Me  17.05% 15.02% 2.03% 26.61% 68.30% 94.91% 118.6 122.9 -4.3
Brave Dragons 14.96% 15.26% -0.30% 30.22% 70.50% 100.71% 122.4 121.5 0.9
What Was I Doing 14.19% 16.38% -2.19% 27.32% 70.08% 97.40% 114.4 114.6 -0.2
6/7/2013 10:10 PM

MW (aka Sun Belt East)

Playoffs look safe

Mikee1: Has won last four to climb back within a game of logain, completely dominating both the possession battle and the rebounding battle. Tov% a little higher than expected and not enjoying the FT advantage like I thought he would at only 0.6 FTM a game advantage. I think this team will really hold its own against the East and IMO will be in first 12 games from now and is still the odds on favorite to win the division.

Is it a fluke?

Logain: Opponents are averaging 6.0 more possessions a game, losing the rebounding battle worse than almost any team I’ve ever seen, insanely high Tov% at 17.79%, losing the FTM battle by 2.1pg, and only scoring 0.9 more ppg than opponents. The good news is that logain is forcing opponents to a very high Tov% of 15.95% and that 140 ast% has translated to a dominant efg in the division of 58.69%, which is an amazing 5.81% advantage. I truly believe this team will struggle greatly against the East, and I’d put it at 60-40 to make the playoffs right now. I am surprised how well this team has done, but I’m still not sold that it can maintain where it is since 36 of the remaining 56 games come outside of the division that logain perfectly built for his team.

A prayer at the #6 seed

Coachcroft: This team has solid rebounding and a very low tov%, it is winning the rebounding, scoring, ft, and possession battles right now. However, this team has an efg of only 50.95% and is behind opponents by 1.48%. Could be a very long next 12 games, but with the relative weakness of the lower end of the West is still in the playoff hunt right now.

Thomcat: Currently has a 6-game losing streak, and is underperforming from the team I originally thought would compete for a playoff spot in this division. Losing the possession battle by 4.3pg is a killer, very high Tov% at 17.05% and only team with worse rebounding in the division is logain’s. However, this team is winning the FT and shooting battles and as with the entire division the relative weakness of the competition keeps it in the hunt.

Seapilots: What keeps hope alive for this team is solid offensive rebounding and a slight advantage in both the turnover and possession battles. And of course the strength or lack thereof for the division.

Steelers: The one bright spot for this squad is that it is dominating the turnover battle. Has a tov% of 14.19% while forcing opponents to a very high 16.38%, meaning an advantage of 2.19%. As with all the teams in the division aside from Mikee the next 12 could be brutal, but the weakness of the division means there is still at least a prayer for a playoff berth.

6/7/2013 10:38 PM
Good analysis We were a lot better 6 games ago but you're right on target. ORBs total is 309 vs  opp. 408. That's killing us. Our possession deficit means we have to shoot in the low/mid 50s and we can't do that on a sustained basis.
6/7/2013 10:54 PM
I'm not even in this league, I just love the detailed breakdowns.
6/7/2013 11:11 PM
Pacific

  PPG PPG A Diff efg efg A Diff FTM FTM A Diff
Hindsight is 20/20 122.6 110.7 11.8 52.74% 48.60% 4.14% 21.7 17.5 4.2
William's Grizzlies 120.1 116.3 3.8 53.60% 51.28% 2.32% 18.7 17.8 0.9
DoneDeal In God We Trust!!! 117.2 113.0 4.2 52.91% 50.18% 2.73% 16.5 17.9 -1.3
Tastes Like HoneyNut Cheerios 117.8 121.6 -3.8 49.92% 53.68% -3.76% 19.3 20.7 -1.3
NoRegard4HumanLife 110.7 119.1 -8.4 49.70% 52.93% -3.23% 16.0 16.9 -0.9
Monte Carlo Sim1 100.9 109.6 -8.7 45.30% 50.47% -5.17% 16.8 18.8 -2.0

  Tov% Tov% A Diff Orb% Dreb% Cred Poss Poss A Diff
Hindsight is 20/20 13.32% 14.22% -0.90% 33.87% 71.05% 104.93% 124.5 123.6 0.8
William's Grizzlies 14.13% 15.41% -1.28% 25.86% 70.24% 96.10% 122.2 125.5 -3.3
DoneDeal In God We Trust!!! 15.76% 14.59% 1.17% 29.71% 72.66% 102.37% 124.5 123.1 1.3
Tastes Like HoneyNut Cheerios 14.80% 14.56% 0.24% 31.29% 73.10% 104.39% 128.1 123.6 4.5
NoRegard4HumanLife 14.82% 14.39% 0.43% 25.99% 71.11% 97.10% 123.0 124.0 -1.0
Monte Carlo Sim1 13.92% 14.71% -0.79% 26.93% 71.65% 98.58% 118.8 117.9 0.9
6/7/2013 11:12 PM

Pacific (aka Sun Belt West)

The Butler of the mid-majors

Vancem: The good news for the rest of us is that Vance proved last season that he’s about as good as tricky when it comes to drafting his own division, because rest assured Vance will finish with a top-4 record. Only two minor flaws (and very minor) in an otherwise completely dominant team is his relatively weak dreb% and possession advantage of only 0.8pg. But when you hold opponents to an efg of 48.60% you can give them as many as you want. Advantage in the Tov battle with lowest tov% of any team with a winning record at 13.32% and an advantage of 0.90%. Very high oreb% of 33.87%, great FTM advantage of 4.2pg, elite shooting advantage of 4.14%. All of those advantages combined translates into an off the chart scoring advantage of 11.8ppg. I am VERY curious to see how Vance’s D holds up against the efg of the East, but in terms of the West it may take divine intervention to knock Vance out of a trip to the league finals at this point.

Playoffs look safe

Theyard2: fresh off an ODL title theyard is climbing the rung of the draft league elite. This team is a little weak on the boards and is losing the possession battle, but is solid in the scoring and shooting battles and is sitting in a safe position for a playoff run.

Tang: Solid boards and winning both the possession and shooting battles translates into a safe position for tang as well in the West. May be very disappointed with his team’s performance over the next 12, but this team has enough separation from the bottom of the West that it is a safe bet to make the playoffs.

WTF Happened?

Eleibowitz: Rebounding is there as predicted, winning the possession battle by a league best, yes I said league best 4.5pg. Only slightly behind on turnovers and FT battle. KILLER for this squad is the shooting battle as the team efg is only 49.92% for a -3.76% disadvantage in the shooting battle. This team did draft one the lowest D’s in the West and one of the lowest ast% in the entire league, which translates into losing the shooting battle at a pace that to date the rebounding advantage cannot make up for.  This IS still the West, so there may still be a ray of hope, but I think the lesson here is that you can only tradeoff so much D and ast% for rebounding and at some point you cross into no-man’s land in terms of what your disadvantages in those areas translate to in the Sim. Right now I’d say it’s about 30-70 for this team to make the playoffs, perhaps the rebounding advantage will mean more for the next 12 versus the East.

Lesson in how NOT to draft your division

Tricky: Behind or completely buried in every key metric. Good news is that tricky was a top-4 team last season and has proven he can build a winner, and there is ZERO chance he’ll have to draft his own division next season coming from the lottery.

Still Can’t Make A Shot

Maglor: Team efg of 45.30% is ALL you would EVER need to know about this squad. This is a good lesson for everyone that in a 53% efg league you can only sacrifice so much shooting before your team is toast. I’m sure Maglor has learned a valuable lesson and would love to finish 1-2 in the lottery and start with a 60%+ efg LeBron or Wilt next time around.

6/7/2013 11:24 PM
Posted by slymonium on 6/7/2013 9:18:00 PM (view original):
Awesome read Nate. Seeing stats this in depth and the analysis to boot really makes this so much more enjoyable than just any old theme league.
Thanks sly. Doing this actually helps me a lot as well, I'd be tracking the numbers anyway and doing the write-ups gives me the opportunity to attempt to tie it all together and make better sense of what I am seeing.
6/7/2013 11:38 PM
Posted by thomcat on 6/7/2013 10:38:00 PM (view original):
Good analysis We were a lot better 6 games ago but you're right on target. ORBs total is 309 vs  opp. 408. That's killing us. Our possession deficit means we have to shoot in the low/mid 50s and we can't do that on a sustained basis.
Thomcat: my advice is track what happens to my team as I switch from Uptempo to HC for the near future. In my open league I went 54-28 but lost the division to jjmuphy and just had to play a 1st round game as the #3 seed even though I had the 2nd best record in the conference. My team had an insane regular season efg close to 60% but I led the league in TO's at 23.3pg running uptempo all season.

I lost the first two in the series at home (with 31 turnovers in game #2) to the #6 seed and his 46-36 regular season record. So, I switched to HC (and burnt a lot of my best minutes) winning games 3 and 4 on the road and 5 at home. I had to punt game 6 to recover my fatigue levels but I also took game 7 at home to advance. For the last 3 wins I had to's of 19,15 and 17, that's 17.0 or 6.3 below my regular season average. 

Right now in this league I trail only DH with 21.2 to's a game. I have too few RL possession and my PG's have a high tov%, so I'm going to try HC (as much as I HATE the idea) and see if reducing my tov% will translate into more W's. If it works for me you may want to consider the same. GL.
6/7/2013 11:41 PM
Posted by jhsukow on 6/7/2013 10:54:00 PM (view original):
I'm not even in this league, I just love the detailed breakdowns.
Thanks. If a spot opens up next time you should join. I used to prefer the ODL because the lower cap means that EVERY decision is critical (even the five non-drafted players). But once DH took over the $52 and opted to introduce the division draft this has become my favorite league with the ODL a close 2nd.
6/8/2013 10:27 AM
Posted by natenoy on 6/7/2013 11:38:00 PM (view original):
Posted by thomcat on 6/7/2013 10:38:00 PM (view original):
Good analysis We were a lot better 6 games ago but you're right on target. ORBs total is 309 vs  opp. 408. That's killing us. Our possession deficit means we have to shoot in the low/mid 50s and we can't do that on a sustained basis.
Thomcat: my advice is track what happens to my team as I switch from Uptempo to HC for the near future. In my open league I went 54-28 but lost the division to jjmuphy and just had to play a 1st round game as the #3 seed even though I had the 2nd best record in the conference. My team had an insane regular season efg close to 60% but I led the league in TO's at 23.3pg running uptempo all season.

I lost the first two in the series at home (with 31 turnovers in game #2) to the #6 seed and his 46-36 regular season record. So, I switched to HC (and burnt a lot of my best minutes) winning games 3 and 4 on the road and 5 at home. I had to punt game 6 to recover my fatigue levels but I also took game 7 at home to advance. For the last 3 wins I had to's of 19,15 and 17, that's 17.0 or 6.3 below my regular season average. 

Right now in this league I trail only DH with 21.2 to's a game. I have too few RL possession and my PG's have a high tov%, so I'm going to try HC (as much as I HATE the idea) and see if reducing my tov% will translate into more W's. If it works for me you may want to consider the same. GL.
Did run HC after game 3 for 7 games and averaged 2 fewer TOs.  Was 3-4.  Went back to UT to take advantage of our better FG%. The downside of course is allowing more off.  opportunities because of RB deficit. Will experiment some more. One of the drawbacks of going with just enough minutes is lack of flexibility in the rotation. Although not 100%,  would consider giving Kermit some minutes at SF to help with the TRBs but his minutes just aren't there. Thanks  for the advice.     
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