All Forums > SimLeague Basketball > Theme Leagues > ODL Evaluation Thread. Natenoy vs Vancem
6/22/2013 2:10 PM
for smokey:

  Q. How does the SimLeague Basketball SimEngine work?
  A. The SimEngine simulates a game one possession at a time. The following is a high-level view of the decision process involved in every normal possession of a simulated basketball game. Normal possessions pertain to almost 95% of all possessions, but do not cover breakaways, put-backs or late-game situations:

  1. We determine who has the ball by looking at every offensive player’s real-life possession rate. This value looks at his real-life field goal attempts, free throw attempts and turnovers. A player’s chance at having the ball for this possession is exactly relative to the real-life possession rates of the other players. If everyone has the same possession rate, everyone will have a 20% of possessing the ball. We use the composition of the team on the floor and the offensive set to determine how much time has come off the clock by the time this decision is made and the possession is terminated.
  2. Now that we have picked a player, we must determine what he will do with the ball. There are three things he can do: turn the ball over (3), shoot (5) or be fouled (4). Every player has a real-life turnover percentage, field goal attempt percentage and times fouled percentage that is relative to his total number of actual possessions. At this point, many factors can adjust those percentages and affect whether we go to step 3, 4 or 5. Generally, we will view the chance that he shoots as the amount remaining after modifications to fouled percentage and turnover percentage. These factors include: the man defending the player, the rest of the defense, the type of offense, the type of defense, a player’s fatigue value, any team under-possession penalty and the player’s over-possession penalty.
  3. If a player has committed a turnover, he may have committed a ball-handling mistake, poor pass or offensive foul. The percentage chance that an offensive foul has occurred is relative his actual personal foul rate. This is figured into the chance in the previous section. Ball-handling and passing turnovers each use a fixed percentage of the remaining chance that is based on historical averages for these turnovers. If it is one of these two types of turnovers there is a chance for a steal. This chance is based on the defenders and is relative the steal weighting used in the decision above. If a steal has occurred, there is a chance for a breakaway. Either way, the player who steals the ball is determined after the steal event is known. Each defensive player’s chance for a steal is relative to his contribution to the steal weighting in #2. If no steal has occurred, the ball simply goes to the other team.
  4. A player has been fouled. This can be a shooting foul or a personal foul on the floor. This decision is determined using historical averages and the player’s real-life field goal attempt rate. If there is a shooting foul, a player has a chance to make the shot. We determine if it is a two or a three in the same way as we will below and the chance of making it is relative to his real-life shooting percentage, but discounted by a historical percentage. Either way, the foul is assigned to one of the defensive players. Each player’s chance of committing the foul is based on his real-life foul rate and is relative to the weighting used to determine if there is a foul in #2. If it is shooting, the shooter will be able to shoot the appropriate number of shots. If the final free-throw shot is missed, we proceed to rebounding (6). If it is not a shooting foul, we restart the possession.
  5. A shot has been attempted. Whether this is a three-point attempt is strictly based on the shooters ratio of three-point attempts to non-three-point field goal attempts. The chance that a player has of making the shot is based on his shooting percentage, the assist rates of his teammates, his defender’s stop percentage (captured by defensive rating) and to a lesser extent the other four player’s stop percentages and the block rates of all five defensive players. If the shot is made, we determine if there was an assist. Assist chances utilize a historical average as a base that is modified by the sum assist rates from the other four offensive players. If there is an assist, every player’s chances are relative to his assist rate compared to the other players. If the shot is missed, we must determine if there was a block. Block chances are relative to the weighting that each player has in the field goal make or miss decision. Either way, if the shot is missed, we must determine who gets the rebound.
  6. Every missed field goal attempt in a normal possession is rebounded. Rebounding looks at the real-life offensive and defensive rebounding percentages of all ten players on the court, though the shooter and his defender generally have less of a chance, especially in the case of a three-point attempt. We look at each one-on-one matchup for this situation (shooting team is still considered offense) to determine if one player has a better than average advantage over his opponent. These players will get a boost to their percentages, while their opponents will see their percentages drop. We then look at all ten modified percentages. The chance that an individual player has of getting the rebound is relative to how his percentage compares. If the ball is rebounded by an offensive player, there is a chance for a put-back. Assuming no put-back, the possession restarts. If the ball is rebounded by a defensive player that team begins its possession on offense.

6/22/2013 2:52 PM (edited)
  1. If a player has committed a turnover, he may have committed a ball-handling mistake, poor pass or offensive foul. The percentage chance that an offensive foul has occurred is relative his actual personal foul rate. This is figured into the chance in the previous section. Ball-handling and passing turnovers each use a fixed percentage of the remaining chance that is based on historical averages for these turnovers. If it is one of these two types of turnovers there is a chance for a steal. This chance is based on the defenders and is relative the steal weighting used in the decision above. If a steal has occurred, there is a chance for a breakaway. Either way, the player who steals the ball is determined after the steal event is known. Each defensive player’s chance for a steal is relative to his contribution to the steal weighting in #2. If no steal has occurred, the ball simply goes to the other team.








this option should recieve greater wieghting and trigger a stoppage in time
6/22/2013 4:18 PM
I'll throw out some more commentary tonight most likely.  For now, though, I really like my starting 5.

6/22/2013 4:37 PM (edited)
I like it so far but rush, boozer, and porter are all practically part timers - fortunately you have 10m to make the next 5-6k minutes happen
6/22/2013 5:19 PM
Partial season goodness.
6/22/2013 5:26 PM
                       
    Jason Kidd 09-10 Mavericks PG 14.6 41.7 42.4 55.4 1.8 14.8 31.8 2.3 0.7
    Kevin McHale 86-87 Celtics PF 24.1 60.3 0.0 60.4 9.4 16.6 7.0 0.5 3.0
    Horace Grant 93-94 Bulls PF 18.7 52.6 0.0 52.4 13.2 20.3 11.3 1.3 2.0
    Bob McAdoo 73-74 Braves C 25.1 55.5 35.9 55.4 8.7 24.1 5.7 1.0 3.8
    Walt Frazier 69-70 Knicks PG 20.8 55.1 33.6 54.1 4.2 10.2 21.5 1.8 0.5
6/22/2013 5:28 PM
90,90,82,80,73 for the defense

not my usual high scoring team....but im liking it...still weak on the boards but the defense/efg combo is very good


i might end up using 91-92 ho grant instead but for now im guessing ill need the extra money and the usg/dreb

6/22/2013 5:56 PM
clean, nice efg, good D, poor rebounding, would worry about individual attempts penalty
6/22/2013 6:13 PM
Posted by felonius on 6/22/2013 5:56:00 PM (view original):
clean, nice efg, good D, poor rebounding, would worry about individual attempts penalty
yea...i was actually thinking about running hc...well see how much usg i can add to the bench....i have enough in the starting lineup to run uptempo imo
6/22/2013 6:19 PM

 

Name

 

Team

 

Po s        

 

Usage%  

 

2pt%#           

 

3pt%#             

 

eFG%    

 

OReb%

 

DReb%

 

Ast% 

 

Stl% 

 

Blk%

 

 

 

 

Rajon Rondo

10-11 Celtics

PG

18.4

48.8

23.1

48.2

4.3

9.1

39.4

2.9

0.3

 

 

 

 

Kevin Durant

12-13 Thunder

SF

30.0

53.7

41.4

55.9

1.7

18.9

15.2

1.7

1.9

 

 

 

 

Josh Smith

09-10 Hawks

PF

22.3

50.4

0.0

50.5

8.5

18.6

14.9

2.1

3.6

 

 

 

 

Willis Reed

69-70 Knicks

C

22.1

51.8

33.3

51.5

10.6

23.6

5.4

1.2

2.9

 

 

 

 

George Gervin

76-77 Spurs

SF

24.6

54.3

0.0

54.4

5.0

11.3

9.4

1.4

1.9

 
I like this first five, def is 90, 78, 90, 90 & 78.
6/22/2013 6:38 PM
For eval purposes using 73-74 Swen Natet
6/22/2013 6:46 PM
Name Team Pos Usage% 2pt%# 3pt%# eFG% OReb% DReb% Ast% Stl% Blk%
Kevin Johnson 96-97 Suns PG 22.6 51 43.8 54.6 2.3 8.2 30.9 1.7 0.3
Dwyane Wade 08-09 Heat SG 36.4 52.2 31.3 51.6 3.2 11.6 25.4 2.7 2.2
Joakim Noah 12-13 Bulls C 17.3 48.3 0 48.1 11.3 21.1 14.6 1.5 3.5
Kevin Willis 91-92 Hawks PF 22 49 16.4 48.5 14.1 29.6 6.5 1 1
Tom Boerwinkle 70-71 Bulls C 16.7 50.3 34.2 50.1 12.7 32.1 19.1 1.8 3.8


I didn't go crazy with the D, but I feel like this is an average defensive squad.  We make up for that short coming with rebounding and passing.  I feel like in those two regards my team is one of the more dominant squads.  Now just 10 Mil (slightly under) to fill out the last 4500 to 5000 minutes.
6/22/2013 7:30 PM
    Name Team Pos Usage% 2pt%# 3pt%# eFG% OReb% DReb% Ast% Stl% Blk%
    Jose Calderon 07-08 Raptors PG 17.1 54.9 42.7 57.5 1.5 9.1 34.8 1.7 0.1
    Reggie Miller 89-90 Pacers SG 24.2 54.9 41.8 57.2 3.5 6.7 11.5 1.5 0.3
    Charles Barkley 87-88 76ers PF 26.7 62.6 28.5 60.4 13.5 20.0 9.9 1.4 1.8
    Marcus Camby 07-08 Nuggets C 13.2 45.3 29.8 45.5 9.0 29.7 11.4 1.3 5.7
    Andrew Bynum 11-12 Lakers C 23.9 56.0 28.6 55.8 10.1 24.5 5.3 0.6 3.1
6/22/2013 9:19 PM (edited)
    Name Team Pos GP Min Pts FGM FGA 3PM 3PA FTM FTA OReb Reb Ast TO Stl Blk PF
    Jose Calderon 07-08 Raptors PG 82 2488 922 367 707 79 184 109 120 34 236 678 126 87 6 134
    Reggie Miller 89-90 Pacers SG 82 3192 2016 661 1287 150 362 544 627 95 295 311 222 110 18 175
    Charles Barkley 87-88 76ers PF 80 3170 2264 753 1283 44 157 714 951 385 951 254 304 100 103 278
    Marcus Camby 07-08 Nuggets C 79 2761 721 286 635 6 20 143 202 230 1037 259 118 84 285 216
    Andrew Bynum 11-12 Lakers C 75 2624 1397 552 989 2 7 291 420 239 881 106 189 34 145 130
       TOTALS     14235 7320 2619 4901 281 730 1801 2320 983 3400 1608 959 415 557 933
                                         
                                         
                                         
                                         
                                         
                                         
                                     
6/22/2013 7:36 PM
I'm happy I moved up to get Calderon.  He seems to fit nicely as I needed some ast.  My efg% is high, my D is low.  My TOs and PF's thankfully are much lower than what I drafted in the Funk 52.  I'm a bit light on 3's but the subs I roll with will fill that gap.  Pretty happy overall with how my draft has gone.  Hope I don't hit the individual usg penalty too often...
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All Forums > SimLeague Basketball > Theme Leagues > ODL Evaluation Thread. Natenoy vs Vancem

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