All Forums > Hoops Dynasty Basketball > Hoops Dynasty > Anybody watching Spurs/Heat game...thoughts?
6/21/2013 4:54 PM (edited)
Posted by dahsdebater on 6/21/2013 4:25:00 PM (view original):
Frankly, though, you're right - I'm probably not going to put much stock in the economic analysis of someone who thinks six figures = millions.

Low 6 figures I might even buy, but on the scope of one of the 30 largest metro areas in the United States a few hundred thousand really is pretty damn insignificant.

Ha!  I wondered if anyone else caught that or not.  Kind of puts a dent in one's credibility, now doesn't it?  Now only that, but it was "six figures many times over".  ****, how many times over can you really go and still stay at six figures?  It's a rhetorical question.
6/21/2013 4:55 PM
http://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2010/06/how_much_is_lebron_james_worth.html

Another on-point article.  This estimates his impact as something like several hundred million.
6/21/2013 5:01 PM (edited)
Posted by spasticity on 6/21/2013 4:51:00 PM (view original):
http://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2010/07/what-cleveland-lost-when-it-lost-lebron/59480/

This article cites a number from the Chicago Chamber of Commerce.  They estimated the impact of LeBron potentially signing with the Bulls to be about $2.5 billion.  I would think the reverse impact from leaving Cleveland would be a lot smaller than that, but that's a big number. 
I saw that, and other contemporaneous predictions.  I'd like to see a retrospective examination of what actually happened since than read about the expectations at the time.

Also, I don't have much confidence in the objectiveness or accuracy of Chamber of Commerce stuff.  $2.5 billion doesn't pass the laugh test... but then that test is different for all of us.

Re: second link in your next post.  The loss of state income tax dollars he would have paid is concrete and real.  That's close to $1 million.  That makes sense.  The rest of it?  Well, the money Clevelanders didn't spend in the bars and at the game still got spent.  Perhaps not as much was spent locally, but nearly all of it still generated economic activity.

6/21/2013 5:02 PM
Posted by spasticity on 6/21/2013 4:55:00 PM (view original):
http://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2010/06/how_much_is_lebron_james_worth.html

Another on-point article.  This estimates his impact as something like several hundred million.
Again, I don't think anybody said that LeBron leaving Cleveland didn't have an economic impact.  The question is how much of that impact would have been avoided if he hadn't made "The Decision" into a national spectacle.  And aside from bistiza, I think most of us agree the likely answer is "not very much of it."  Maybe one or two tenths of a percent?
6/21/2013 5:16 PM
Posted by llamanunts on 6/21/2013 5:01:00 PM (view original):
Posted by spasticity on 6/21/2013 4:51:00 PM (view original):
http://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2010/07/what-cleveland-lost-when-it-lost-lebron/59480/

This article cites a number from the Chicago Chamber of Commerce.  They estimated the impact of LeBron potentially signing with the Bulls to be about $2.5 billion.  I would think the reverse impact from leaving Cleveland would be a lot smaller than that, but that's a big number. 
I saw that, and other contemporaneous predictions.  I'd like to see a retrospective examination of what actually happened since than read about the expectations at the time.

Also, I don't have much confidence in the objectiveness or accuracy of Chamber of Commerce stuff.  $2.5 billion doesn't pass the laugh test... but then that test is different for all of us.

Re: second link in your next post.  The loss of state income tax dollars he would have paid is concrete and real.  That's close to $1 million.  That makes sense.  The rest of it?  Well, the money Clevelanders didn't spend in the bars and at the game still got spent.  Perhaps not as much was spent locally, but nearly all of it still generated economic activity.

Obviously looking back now would give a better answer, but I just spent 30 seconds googling out of curiosity to put some actual numbers out there.  The impact was clearly at least double digit millions, even if you want to be really conservative about it.

I'm not going to try to argue with you about their methods for estimating the impact.  They cited economics professors from MIT and UI-Chicago, so if you don't want to take their word for it then I won't convince you otherwise.
6/21/2013 5:18 PM
Posted by dahsdebater on 6/21/2013 5:02:00 PM (view original):
Posted by spasticity on 6/21/2013 4:55:00 PM (view original):
http://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2010/06/how_much_is_lebron_james_worth.html

Another on-point article.  This estimates his impact as something like several hundred million.
Again, I don't think anybody said that LeBron leaving Cleveland didn't have an economic impact.  The question is how much of that impact would have been avoided if he hadn't made "The Decision" into a national spectacle.  And aside from bistiza, I think most of us agree the likely answer is "not very much of it."  Maybe one or two tenths of a percent?
Well I was seeing numbers like hundreds of thousands being thrown around, so I wanted to put some better estimates forward.

I agree and already said I don't think The Decision really made much difference, except to people's emotions.
6/21/2013 5:40 PM (edited)
Posted by spasticity on 6/21/2013 5:16:00 PM (view original):
Posted by llamanunts on 6/21/2013 5:01:00 PM (view original):
Posted by spasticity on 6/21/2013 4:51:00 PM (view original):
http://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2010/07/what-cleveland-lost-when-it-lost-lebron/59480/

This article cites a number from the Chicago Chamber of Commerce.  They estimated the impact of LeBron potentially signing with the Bulls to be about $2.5 billion.  I would think the reverse impact from leaving Cleveland would be a lot smaller than that, but that's a big number. 
I saw that, and other contemporaneous predictions.  I'd like to see a retrospective examination of what actually happened since than read about the expectations at the time.

Also, I don't have much confidence in the objectiveness or accuracy of Chamber of Commerce stuff.  $2.5 billion doesn't pass the laugh test... but then that test is different for all of us.

Re: second link in your next post.  The loss of state income tax dollars he would have paid is concrete and real.  That's close to $1 million.  That makes sense.  The rest of it?  Well, the money Clevelanders didn't spend in the bars and at the game still got spent.  Perhaps not as much was spent locally, but nearly all of it still generated economic activity.

Obviously looking back now would give a better answer, but I just spent 30 seconds googling out of curiosity to put some actual numbers out there.  The impact was clearly at least double digit millions, even if you want to be really conservative about it.

I'm not going to try to argue with you about their methods for estimating the impact.  They cited economics professors from MIT and UI-Chicago, so if you don't want to take their word for it then I won't convince you otherwise.
You know what?  I skimmed it because I was biased toward looking backward at it.

The MIT guy - "They fill up the restaurants. They go to the bars after the games. They spend a lot of money," said Jerry Hausman, an economics professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who studied Michael Jordan's effect on the National Basketball Association.  He's probably right about that.  I also doubt the fans hoarded all that money, and I wonder if he addressed that end of it in his work.  I know.  I'm overly skeptical.

I take the UIC guy's point about the playoff revenue that otherwise wasn't coming in... except for the same concern.  I'm sure some amount of that revenue is from outsiders.  I don't know how much, and the gross revenue number from playoff games doesn't tell us how much of it wouldn't have been spent into Cleveland's economy anyway.

So yeah, I'd still like to see a backward-looking study.  I do believe that the economic impact was greater than I initially thought.  I don't believe LeBron deserves any **** over it, though.
6/21/2013 5:36 PM
I said hundreds of thousands.  Attributed specifically to The Decision.  I've never said anything about overall economic impact of his leaving, but bistiza has explicitly stated that his problem wasn't with the fact THAT he left but rather HOW he left.  If we're conceding LeBron had the freedom to leave Cleveland at all without being a "**** person," that what makes him a "**** person" is specifically The Decision, then the only relevant concern is the economic impact of The Decision itself.  Overall economic impact of his leaving is totally irrelevant.  Unfortunately I'm pretty sure bistiza was thinking about overall economic impact when he brought it up in the first place, and now in order to avoid ever conceding anything (which I have literally never seen him do), he has gotten himself into the middle of this shitstorm in which he needs to defend a statement that there was a significant detriment to the Cleveland economy specifically associated with The Decision.  Which is frankly asinine.
6/21/2013 5:43 PM
At the end of the day it doesn't matter what people think as far who the better team was. What matters is who took home the brass and gets to be called champions. The rest is irrelevant whining. 
6/21/2013 5:47 PM
Posted by llamanunts on 6/21/2013 5:40:00 PM (view original):
Posted by spasticity on 6/21/2013 5:16:00 PM (view original):
Posted by llamanunts on 6/21/2013 5:01:00 PM (view original):
Posted by spasticity on 6/21/2013 4:51:00 PM (view original):
http://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2010/07/what-cleveland-lost-when-it-lost-lebron/59480/

This article cites a number from the Chicago Chamber of Commerce.  They estimated the impact of LeBron potentially signing with the Bulls to be about $2.5 billion.  I would think the reverse impact from leaving Cleveland would be a lot smaller than that, but that's a big number. 
I saw that, and other contemporaneous predictions.  I'd like to see a retrospective examination of what actually happened since than read about the expectations at the time.

Also, I don't have much confidence in the objectiveness or accuracy of Chamber of Commerce stuff.  $2.5 billion doesn't pass the laugh test... but then that test is different for all of us.

Re: second link in your next post.  The loss of state income tax dollars he would have paid is concrete and real.  That's close to $1 million.  That makes sense.  The rest of it?  Well, the money Clevelanders didn't spend in the bars and at the game still got spent.  Perhaps not as much was spent locally, but nearly all of it still generated economic activity.

Obviously looking back now would give a better answer, but I just spent 30 seconds googling out of curiosity to put some actual numbers out there.  The impact was clearly at least double digit millions, even if you want to be really conservative about it.

I'm not going to try to argue with you about their methods for estimating the impact.  They cited economics professors from MIT and UI-Chicago, so if you don't want to take their word for it then I won't convince you otherwise.
You know what?  I skimmed it because I was biased toward looking backward at it.

The MIT guy - "They fill up the restaurants. They go to the bars after the games. They spend a lot of money," said Jerry Hausman, an economics professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who studied Michael Jordan's effect on the National Basketball Association.  He's probably right about that.  I also doubt the fans hoarded all that money, and I wonder if he addressed that end of it in his work.  I know.  I'm overly skeptical.

I take the UIC guy's point about the playoff revenue that otherwise wasn't coming in... except for the same concern.  I'm sure some amount of that revenue is from outsiders.  I don't know how much, and the gross revenue number from playoff games doesn't tell us how much of it wouldn't have been spent into Cleveland's economy anyway.

So yeah, I'd still like to see a backward-looking study.  I do believe that the economic impact was greater than I initially thought.  I don't believe LeBron deserves any **** over it, though.
To be honest I don't really have a good answer for you on how they would account for the point you raise.  It's a good question.
6/21/2013 6:01 PM
Still getting way off-topic here.  We are specifically concerned with whether or not LeBron is a "**** person," which is apparently determined based on the economic impact of The Decision alone.
6/21/2013 6:09 PM
Posted by dahsdebater on 6/21/2013 6:01:00 PM (view original):
Still getting way off-topic here.  We are specifically concerned with whether or not LeBron is a "**** person," which is apparently determined based on the economic impact of The Decision alone.
Well, if you really want to get back on topic, yes I was watching the game and had thoughts. :-)
6/21/2013 6:11 PM
You need to turn your profanity filter off, sir.
6/21/2013 6:14 PM
I don't understand why it's suddenly on...
6/21/2013 6:17 PM
As far as being a **** person goes, Wade was the one who did this arrogant ****...
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