8/2/2013 9:57 AM
Posted by mroylanc on 8/1/2013 1:44:00 PM (view original):
Thanks for keeping up with the daily write-ups. I'm sure it takes a lot of work but I look forward to reading it every single day. And I know a lot of others do to.
For every person who chimes in to say they appreciate reading these, there are probably dozens who feel the same way and just didn't say it.  These threads really add a lot to the game.  Great job by everyone who contributes and please keep doing it!
8/2/2013 10:52 AM
Posted by rednu on 8/1/2013 11:38:00 PM (view original):
Posted by pseudochamp on 8/1/2013 10:26:00 PM (view original):
And by "I'll try to get a quick recap of conference winners up later this afternoon..." I meant that rednu will definitely get a recap of conference winners up later today.

Thanks red!

LOL -- totally didn't see that you'd written that pseudochamp. It just dawned on me as I was setting my team for tonight's game that it was the end of the regular season and I just did what I typically do at season's end. Please tell me you saw that I'd posted all that before you'd spent an hour working on and almost finishng a write-up.
Nope, all I had done was look through a couple conferences and then decide to procrastinate and work on the writeup later.  Worked out perfect.
8/4/2013 3:11 AM
Championship games

ASC -- #1 Hardin-Simmons (26-2, 2) vs. #6 Texas Lutheran (26-2, 9)
Captial -- #20 St. Mary's of Maryland (28-0, 45) vs. Catholic (20-8, 96)
Centennial -- #4 Ursinus (28-0, 10) vs. Dickinson (21-7, 46)
CUNY -- John Jay (23-5, 82) vs. Staten Island (17-11, 141)
CCIW -- #21 Norhtland (26-2, 25) vs. Elmhurst (22-6, 93)
Coast -- Wentwortth (25-3, 47) vs. Nichols (11-18, 304)
Commonwealth -- #5 Susquehanna (26-2, 6) vs. #25 Penn St. Altoona (22-6, 19)
Empire -- Vassar (25-3, 65) vs. Utica (16-12, 132)
Freedom -- Carnegie Mellon (20-8, 123) vs. Drew (18-10, 124)
GNE -- #8 Johnson and Wales (23-5, 4) vs. S. Vermont (20-9, 14)
Heartland -- Westminster(PA) (16-13, 111) vs. Mt. St. Joseph (18-11, 121)
Iowa -- #18 Buena Vista (24-4, 20) vs. Simpson (22-6, 58)
Little East -- UMass, Dartmouth (22-6, 44) vs. Plymouth St. (26-2, 56)
Michigan -- #19 Eureka (25-3, 21) vs. Kalamazoo (16-13, 75)
Midwest -- Beloit (26-2, 55) vs. Lawrence (23-5, 80)
Minnesota -- #11 Hamline (28-0, 39) vs. Bethel (15-13, 204)
NESCAC -- #17 Tufts (27-1, 37) vs. Connecticut (19-10, 142)
New Jersey -- #14 Ramapo (27-1, 36) vs. William Paterson (22-6, 52)
N. Atlantic -- Castleton St. (20-8, 74) vs. Johnson St. (24-4, 95)
NCAC -- #10 Wittenberg (23-5, 12) vs. Wooster (20-8, 31)
Northwest -- #15 Willamette (25-3, 17) vs. Chapman (24-4, 30)
Ohio -- John Carroll (22-6, 43) vs. Muskingum (23-5, 77)
ODAC -- #9 Lynchburg (26-2, 15) vs. E. Mennonite (18-10, 135)
Penn -- Babson (26-2, 84) vs. Alvernia (16-12, 193)
Skyline -- #24 U.S. Merchant Marines (23-5, 23) vs. Mount St. Mary (21-7, 59)
So. Cal. -- #13 Colorado (25-3, 16) vs. Whittier (21-7, 38)
St. Louis -- Webster (24-4, 53) vs. Benedictine (11-18, 262)
SUNY -- SUNY Fredonia (23-6, 76) vs. Brockport (23-5, 85)
University -- #3 Trinity(TX) (24-4, 1) vs. #12 Emory (23-5, 7)
Upstate -- Rensselaer Poly (25-3, 64) vs. New York Univ. (21-7, 94)
USA South -- #2 Piedmont (26-2, 3) vs. Shenandoah (19-10, 40)
Wisconsin -- #7 Wisconsin, Superior (25-3, 8) vs. Concordia(WI) (21-7, 33)

Seven games with both teams projected at 65+, bumps the break line down to 57. The shift causes the Upstate to also be an at-large spot eater, break line now at 56. A total of 12 championship games could potentially eat additional at-large spots should the higher-projected team win. So anyone projected 1-44 at the end of play tonight is automatically dancing. Those projected 57+ after tonight will be PIT fodder at best and those seeded 45-56 are praying for as few championship game upsets as possible tonight.

8/4/2013 8:24 AM
I went undefeated in conference and a sim ai coach with 4 conf losses gets coach of the year?
8/4/2013 6:14 PM
If it's a coaches vote, I suspect collusion by the other sim coaches.
8/5/2013 7:00 AM
My "reward" for getting a 3-seed this year is a first round matchup against 14th-seeded Webster and their team rating of 616?!?  Yikes.
8/5/2013 7:01 AM
Posted by whit6r on 8/4/2013 8:24:00 AM (view original):
I went undefeated in conference and a sim ai coach with 4 conf losses gets coach of the year?
A big part of Conference COY is improvement over the prior season.  Kinda silly if you ask me.
8/5/2013 9:15 AM
Thanks Darnoc, that would make sense
8/5/2013 10:10 AM
Posted by darnoc29099 on 8/5/2013 7:00:00 AM (view original):
My "reward" for getting a 3-seed this year is a first round matchup against 14th-seeded Webster and their team rating of 616?!?  Yikes.
You can use fancy math-related reasoning all you like darnoc, but we all know what's going on here.  You fear the Gorlok.  Just admit it, it's ok, no one's going to blame you.

Gorloks!

8/5/2013 11:28 AM
Here are the tourney odds for this year.  darnoc got screwed.

skydrive.live.com/redir

Seed Team Rating 32 16 8 4 2 1
1 Piedmont 54.24 96.70% 55.14% 27.89% 4.87% 1.07% 0.32%
16 Alvernia 47.47 3.30% 0.14% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8 Hamline 53.87 64.49% 32.66% 15.45% 2.44% 0.48% 0.12%
9 George Fox 52.45 35.51% 12.06% 3.77% 0.31% 0.04% 0.01%
4 Louisiana 54.35 87.95% 47.63% 25.80% 4.64% 1.06% 0.34%
13 Plymouth St. 49.91 12.05% 1.51% 0.20% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
5 Suffolk 54.53 80.30% 46.16% 25.74% 4.90% 1.18% 0.40%
12 Elizabethtown 51.57 19.70% 4.70% 1.13% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00%
2 Wisconsin, Superior 57.71 98.61% 91.57% 51.17% 43.15% 27.21% 19.43%
15 Brockport 49.74 1.39% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
7 Rhodes 52.22 46.78% 3.30% 0.28% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00%
10 W. New England 52.62 53.22% 4.84% 0.52% 0.17% 0.02% 0.00%
3 Texas Lutheran 57.5 98.73% 90.37% 47.03% 39.05% 23.79% 16.33%
14 Castleton St. 49.37 1.27% 0.22% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
6 Eureka 52.82 79.89% 9.02% 0.97% 0.32% 0.04% 0.01%
11 Ramapo 49.92 20.11% 0.39% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1 Johnson and Wales 55.39 97.06% 61.96% 43.66% 15.36% 5.02% 2.17%
16 Carnegie Mellon 48.45 2.94% 0.15% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8 U.S. Merchant Marines 54.47 80.01% 34.61% 20.41% 4.73% 1.04% 0.34%
9 Wooster 51.56 19.99% 3.27% 0.91% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00%
4 Colorado 54 58.63% 32.19% 12.62% 2.54% 0.49% 0.13%
13 Austin 53.16 41.37% 19.81% 6.07% 0.92% 0.13% 0.03%
5 Ozarks 53.31 46.82% 21.47% 6.94% 1.12% 0.17% 0.03%
12 St. Mary's of Maryland 53.71 53.18% 26.53% 9.38% 1.74% 0.30% 0.07%
2 Susquehanna 57.46 98.81% 82.30% 71.79% 60.18% 34.99% 23.89%
15 Westminster (PA) 49.25 1.19% 0.10% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
7 Emmanuel 54.55 70.09% 14.58% 7.90% 3.88% 0.87% 0.30%
10 Concordia (WI) 52.52 29.91% 3.02% 0.95% 0.23% 0.02% 0.00%
3 Southwestern 52.97 79.04% 27.94% 3.68% 1.12% 0.15% 0.03%
14 Beloit 50.15 20.96% 2.66% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
6 Chapman 51.62 18.80% 7.58% 0.45% 0.08% 0.00% 0.00%
11 Shenandoah 54.74 81.20% 61.82% 15.16% 8.03% 1.91% 0.69%
1 Trinity (TX) 53.73 92.57% 50.23% 27.30% 7.84% 2.01% 0.34%
16 Staten Island 48.35 7.43% 0.61% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8 Tufts 48.97 10.75% 1.23% 0.14% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
9 Newbury 53.7 89.25% 47.93% 25.91% 7.32% 1.85% 0.31%
4 Lynchburg 52.08 76.58% 27.46% 9.78% 1.53% 0.23% 0.02%
13 William Paterson 49.48 23.42% 3.32% 0.47% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
5 Northland 50.02 15.59% 5.17% 0.90% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00%
12 Wentworth Tech. 53.79 84.41% 64.05% 35.46% 10.47% 2.76% 0.48%
2 Rivier 54.91 65.00% 52.68% 23.58% 16.38% 6.69% 1.65%
15 Kalamazoo 53.42 35.00% 22.76% 6.01% 3.17% 0.74% 0.11%
7 N. Carolina Wesleyan 51.83 44.69% 9.23% 1.40% 0.48% 0.06% 0.00%
10 Wisconsin, Oshkosh 52.48 55.31% 15.34% 2.97% 1.21% 0.21% 0.02%
3 Wittenberg 52.24 14.90% 6.88% 1.88% 0.72% 0.11% 0.01%
14 Webster 56.16 85.10% 75.51% 57.73% 47.81% 28.21% 11.20%
6 Buena Vista 52.98 86.34% 17.27% 6.41% 3.00% 0.61% 0.08%
11 Dickinson 48.84 13.66% 0.34% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1 Hardin-Simmons 54.58 95.58% 70.69% 50.77% 17.30% 7.42% 1.62%
16 Utica 48.38 4.42% 0.62% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8 Millsaps 51.95 44.95% 11.01% 4.41% 0.55% 0.09% 0.01%
9 Palm Beach Atlantic 52.59 55.05% 17.68% 8.41% 1.37% 0.29% 0.03%
4 S. Vermont 53.49 82.87% 60.25% 27.10% 5.79% 1.67% 0.26%
13 Mount St. Mary 50.07 17.13% 5.87% 0.80% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%
5 Willamette 51.99 62.16% 24.22% 6.66% 0.85% 0.15% 0.01%
12 UMass, Dartmouth 50.84 37.84% 9.66% 1.77% 0.11% 0.01% 0.00%
2 Emory 56.13 91.32% 79.63% 42.87% 32.45% 20.61% 8.06%
15 New York U. 50.99 8.68% 2.88% 0.21% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00%
7 Calvin 52.81 54.31% 10.15% 1.82% 0.66% 0.15% 0.02%
10 John Carroll 52.27 45.69% 7.34% 1.06% 0.33% 0.06% 0.01%
3 Ursinus 56.63 87.14% 67.22% 42.53% 34.34% 23.59% 10.64%
14 Simpson 52.36 12.86% 3.95% 0.72% 0.23% 0.05% 0.00%
6 Penn St. Altoona 54.59 57.41% 18.79% 7.53% 4.33% 1.87% 0.41%
11 Whittier 53.86 42.59% 10.04% 3.25% 1.60% 0.56% 0.10%
8/5/2013 12:47 PM
My call to win it all...

Midwest -- Also known as the "I want my mommy" division, this bracket is loaded! Texas Lutheran was a WTEFF selection, but really any of the top six won't be fun to face. My first impression when evaluating the ASC to begin the conference previews was that Texas Lutheran had the potential to develop into the highest rated team by year's end that my numbers have ever evaluated a squad at. They're not quite there, but they're close. They'd also potentially have to go through Superior just to reach the ELITE EIGHT. Meanwhile, if they can get past George Fox, an undefeated Hamline could be top-seed Piedmont's Round 2 adversary. This is possibly the most loaded region on any bracket I've evaluated as 1-6 all score higher than some teams I've previously picked to reach the Final Four. Can we get the selecton committee on the phone and move my squad elsewhere. Please?
East -- Compared to the Midwest, this division looks like a milk run. Except for the brute squads in the top two seeds of Johnson and Wales and Susquehanna, both WTEFF choices. They're both loaded. Colorado is positioned to make some possible waves and, for an 8 seed, US Merchant Marines scores exceptionally high in my formula. Oh look, both of those teams fall on the JW side of the bracket. Therefore, my pick is Susquehanna to the Final Four.
South -- If there's a division where chaos could reign this postseason, my guess is for the South to be that division. Strip the names away and just look at the numbers and you'd have a hard time determining who was near the 1 seed and who was closer to the 8 seed. For me, Buena Vista rises to the top, which is a little scary considering that they're a 6 seed and have 5 losses, including one to 4 seed Lynchburg early in the year. Still, there's no overwhelming reason to doubt the numbers, nor can a really persuasive case be made for any of the other contenders to go above them.  It'll generate discussion if nothing else. Buena Vista to advance.
West -- The top three in this division are as good as you'll see anywhere in Hardin-Simmons, defending champ Emory and Ursinus. I'm going to go with Ursinus, in part because of a non-con head-to-head win over Emory, but it's hard to lobby against Hardin-Simmons and sublightd's pedigree in the postseason. Penn St. Altoona silently lurks as a 6 seed.

Wait, did I just write a column advocating against all 4 number-one seeds? Yes, yes I did, and fate shall likely strike me down as a result. But until that moment arrives, I'm taking Texas Lutheran and Susquehanna to win their respective national semifinal games. Texas Lutheran hoists the hardware at season's end and I'll sit here saying I told you so. That's how I see it -- let the discussion begin!
8/5/2013 1:20 PM
Great stuff - I am starting to think last season's upredictable tourney is the new norm in Rupp D3.... so many good coaches and teams it's very hard to know who will win it all.
8/5/2013 1:56 PM
Ursinus' only loss is their last game of the season ... and they get a #3 seed? That's hard to figure (* for me).

*opinion certainly not influenced by the fact they are in my bracket and previously defeated me this season.
8/5/2013 2:21 PM
I will be interested to see how Webster does.  I am not sure how they end up with a 14 seed when they have a 22 game win streak and all 4 losses are against really high quality teams.  Unbelievable that they were the last team in.
8/5/2013 2:27 PM
Yeah, I missed Webster lurking down that far with that rating...that's my fault as I cut off my analysis of the brackets at the 10 seed in each, thinking that would cover me for most teams capable of winning a bracket vs. time spent on the project as I have two research papers due today for my master's program. That looks like it could be the hidden heavyweight on this year's bracket.
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