All Forums > SimLeague Baseball > SimLeague Baseball > Pitching Fatigued: Effect of and on BB and K Rates
12/17/2013 3:01 AM
I haven't had a chance to plug in the data from my previous league yet, but the one I'm currently playing through can be seen here:
whatifsports.com/mlb-l/view.asp

Team is Stretching Things Out

Brown is finally pitching more fatigued, but still has a decent stat line
Maddux is pitching excellent and with 20 games left on the season already has as many IP as his PH. 

This team didn't originally start as a test team, I just wanted to use a couple of 2013 players, but ended up not using any of them and mostly drafted a staff resembling one of my test teams, so I decided to use it as such. Once I get a chance I'll plug this team and the previous one in together with the data from above. 
12/17/2013 1:29 PM
Posted by mensu1954 on 11/29/2013 4:49:00 AM (view original):
Excellent info j4m...thanks!
Just a quick suggestion for the low IP pitchers like Toney, why don't you set him up as one of the only options out of the bullpen? If he pitches every day we will quickly go to 90% or below  just from the "tired from recent game activity".
12/23/2013 12:37 AM
Posted by seels on 12/17/2013 1:29:00 PM (view original):
Posted by mensu1954 on 11/29/2013 4:49:00 AM (view original):
Excellent info j4m...thanks!
Just a quick suggestion for the low IP pitchers like Toney, why don't you set him up as one of the only options out of the bullpen? If he pitches every day we will quickly go to 90% or below  just from the "tired from recent game activity".
I tried that in the first run, and it's partly what led me to having guys pitching down into the 50% range. They get tired quickly from appearing in too many games and it becomes hard to keep them on track afterwards. The only way to do it well is to keep them from pitching much early in the season and then let them pitch alot towards the end of the season, and I don't have time to manage that closely. 
12/23/2013 12:47 AM
I'm using the '97 Maddux, and there's another iteration of him in the same league as my current test league. With 3 games to go here are their comparative stats:

Rank

Name

SN

G

GS

CG

SHO

W

L

SV

SVO

IP

H

R

ER

HR

BB

SO

OAV

OBP

SLG

WHIP

ERA

1

Maddux, Greg

1997

68

55

0

0

11

13

0

0

257.67

274

96

88

5

21

152

.268

.288

.334

1.14

3.07

2

Maddux, Greg

1997

37

37

7

1

20

12

0

0

284.67

295

113

107

18

24

163

.265

.283

.361

1.12

3.38


Rank

Name

SN

G

Fatigue %

QS

IR

IRS

IBB

HBP

WP

BK

GIDP

GB/FB

BB/9

SO/9

SO/BB

BFP

NP/G

NP/PA

1

Maddux, Greg

1997

68

99.83

4

6

1

0

9

0

0

6

1.2

0.7

5.3

7.2

1070

51.4

3.3

2

Maddux, Greg

1997

37

87.05

27

0

0

0

6

0

2

16

1.2

0.8

5.2

6.8

1161

103.5

3.3



Both Maddux's play in similar ballparks (Safeco & Petco), and the numbers are barely distinguishable despite a nearly 13 point difference on their average fatigue level. 
12/23/2013 1:06 AM
The only thing that jumps out to me is the HR rate... HR allowed appear, in this cursory glance, to be the only major stat affected by fatigue down to the 80s... 
1/4/2014 4:37 PM
Still haven't had a chance to input the data from the last three leagues, but I have another running now that is implementing the things I've been learning so far:

League is: www.whatifsports.com/mlb-l/view.asp 

Team is: Stretching Out Further

I've changed up some of the players, but have kept the core of '97 Maddux, '96 Brown, and '09 Joss and am running them in a 3-man rotation. I kept Toney in the pen and as a early-season spot starter. I've moved the team into Petco to minimize the HR allowed and have built my offense around hit and run prevention and borrowed a few ideas and players from the 212 + Play thread. Even with these pitchers pitching fatigued into the low 80's I expect to have one of if not the best pitching staffs in the league and at least compete for a playoff spot.

1/6/2014 7:43 PM
Started imputing the last two test seasons of data... only problem is I lost the spreadsheet from season 4, so I'm using season 5 as season 4. 

My general observation is:

Test data seems to show that if you control for the two main variables (HRs and hits) and start with low BB numbers (K's seem to be unimportant, except for maybe increasing the number of pitches the pitcher can throw) fatigue down to the low 80's is negligible at best. 

1/27/2014 3:22 PM
www.whatifsports.com/slb/Boxscore.aspx?gid=21727825&pid=1&pbp=0&tf=10

Just threw a no-hitter with 87% Maddux and three relievers combining to keep one of the leagues five best offenses to only a 9th inning walk.
2/22/2014 2:56 AM (edited)
Posted by just4me on 1/4/2014 4:37:00 PM (view original):
Still haven't had a chance to input the data from the last three leagues, but I have another running now that is implementing the things I've been learning so far:

League is: www.whatifsports.com/mlb-l/view.asp 

Team is: Stretching Out Further

I've changed up some of the players, but have kept the core of '97 Maddux, '96 Brown, and '09 Joss and am running them in a 3-man rotation. I kept Toney in the pen and as a early-season spot starter. I've moved the team into Petco to minimize the HR allowed and have built my offense around hit and run prevention and borrowed a few ideas and players from the 212 + Play thread. Even with these pitchers pitching fatigued into the low 80's I expect to have one of if not the best pitching staffs in the league and at least compete for a playoff spot.

As you can see, I had the best pitching staff in the league despite having most of my staff and all of my starters pitching into the low 80s regularly: www.whatifsports.com/mlb-l/teamstats.asp Team also the the most innings thrown by almost 20 innings. Had a league best 1.07 WHIP a full .40 better than league average and .17 better than the next best. Team had an ERA a full half run lower than the next best team and nearly two full runs lower than league average. 

Key player highlights (aside from the no hitter mentioned in the above post):
Maddux:
RL: 233 IP, .236 OAV, 0.94 WHIP, 2.20 ERA
PH: 255 IP, .271 OAV, 1.21 WHIP, 3.31 ERA
SIM: 298 IP, .249 OAV, 1.06 WHIP, 3.23 ERA (Average Fatigue: 86.85%)

Brown:
RL: 233 IP, .220 OAV, 0.94 WHIP, 1.89 ERA
PH: 256 IP, .254 OAV, 1.18 WHIP, 3.15 ERA
SIM: 294 IP, .235 OAV, 1.06 WHIP, 2.45 ERA (Average Fatigue: 88.55%)

Toney:
RL: 112 IP, .192 OAV, 0.73 WHIP, 1.69 ERA 
PH: 110 IP, .243 OAV, 1.11 WHIP, 2.75 ERA
SIM 131.3 IP, .216 OAV, 0.96 WHIP, 1.99 ERA (Average Fatigue: 88.52%)

Northrop:
RL: 53 IP, .183 OAV, 0.73 WHIP, 1.35 ERA
PH: 53 IP, .242 OAV, 1.12 WHIP, 2.68 ERA
SIM: 68.3 IP, .208 OAV, 0.80 WHIP, 1.58 ERA (Average Fatigue: 82.75%

Final thoughts on this test:
Once controlling for all of the variables it was clear that my pitching staff wasn't pushed nearly as much as it could have been. I'm going to run this same team without the third starter, Joss, and am going to replace his innings with the cheapest disposable innings I can. The starters could easily perform at a lower level and still be successful and the bullpen struggled to pitch fatigued much at all with half of the bullpen finished at 100% or one appearance away from 100%. So, I'm going to cut my total IP down by eliminating Joss, his innings, and his salary. I'm going to put that $9m into my offense and this team should be just about as good as the current one which finished like this:

East W-L PCT GB L10 STRK M Home Away Live GPL Owner Rating
Auburn Tigers 99-63 0.611 - 7-3 L3 1 46-35 53-28 0-0 0 j01ner 51125
Stretching Out Further 99-63 0.611 - 5-5 W4 - 49-32 50-31 0-0 0 wilhoite 1857
Road Runners 98-64 0.605 1 3-7 L5 - 46-35 52-29 0-0 0 Humdogs 29349
Pizzaboy 76-86 0.469 23 5-5 W3 - 37-44 39-42 0-0 0 garygmills 6141
West W-L PCT GB L10 STRK M Home Away Live GPL Owner Rating
Chaos Theory 104-58 0.642 - 8-2 L1 x 55-26 49-32 0-0 0 trippercat 4748
The Last Roundup 80-82 0.494 24 5-5 L1 - 42-39 38-43 0-0 0 rowdybt 1612
Bengals 59-103 0.364 45 4-6 W1 - 30-51 29-52 0-0 0 mldw1313 1008
Pesky Pole 48-114 0.296 56 3-7 W1 - 20-61 28-53 0-0 0 chawks12 847
Central W-L PCT GB L10 STRK M Home Away Live GPL Owner Rating
Busted Flat 100-62 0.617 - 5-5 L4 x 50-31 50-31 0-0 0 marlowe 74582
Hit Men 90-72 0.556 10 5-5 W3 - 46-35 44-37 0-0 0 Grimhawke 46716
tarheel helmets 76-86 0.469 24 8-2 W6 - 40-41 36-45 0-0 0 markmonte -163
State Champs 54-108 0.333 46 2-8 L3 - 29-52 25-56 0-0 0 jajcac89 722
AMERICAN LEAGUE
East W-L PCT GB L10 STRK M Home Away Live GPL Owner Rating
Hell on Wheels! 85-77 0.525 - 8-2 L1 x 40-41 45-36 0-0 0 halanaz 1490
Speaker for the Dead 84-78 0.519 1 4-6 W1 - 41-40 43-38 0-0 0 bgreenblatt 2013
Flavor Splash 70-92 0.432 15 7-3 W4 - 32-49 38-43 0-0 0 icemayhem 1492
YES Network 40-122 0.247 45 1-9 L9 - 24-57 16-65 0-0 0 denirojf -11935
West W-L PCT GB L10 STRK M Home Away Live GPL Owner Rating
DOMINICAN BOGGS OR REGGIE SMITH 100-62 0.617 - 6-4 W1 x 48-33 52-29 0-0 0 ligapelota 373742
Ice Storm Baby! 85-77 0.525 15 3-7 L4 - 40-41 45-36 0-0 0 gyhy 2803
Launching Pad 80-82 0.494 20 5-5 W5 - 39-42 41-40 0-0 0 jfschill 556
LOU'S CREW 70-92 0.432 30 6-4 L1 - 35-46 35-46 0-0 0 loucleve 485
Central W-L PCT GB L10 STRK M Home Away Live GPL Owner Rating
Armageddon OL(a) 94-68 0.580 - 7-3 L2 x 49-32 45-36 0-0 0 garycr14 5703
Epoch122713P 93-69 0.574 1 6-4 W2 - 43-38 50-31 0-0 0 Mhogan 47882
Bob Uecker's A-Team 93-69 0.574 1 6-4 W4 - 48-33 45-36 0-0 0 babad13 6652
Switch Out 67-95 0.414 27 1-9 L7 - 31-50 36-45 0-0 0 calbare -7899

of 2
All Forums > SimLeague Baseball > SimLeague Baseball > Pitching Fatigued: Effect of and on BB and K Rates

Terms of Use Customer Support Privacy Statement

Popular on WhatIfSports site: Baseball Simulation | College Basketball Game | College Football Game | Online Baseball Game | Hockey Simulation | NFL Picks | College Football Picks | Sports Games

© 1999-2014 WhatIfSports.com, Inc. All rights reserved. WhatIfSports is a trademark of WhatIfSports.com, Inc. SimLeague, SimMatchup and iSimNow are trademarks or registered trademarks of Electronic Arts, Inc. Used under license. The names of actual companies and products mentioned herein may be the trademarks of their respective owners.