9/19/2013 1:40 PM (edited)
Last Night
Hendrix 59   #4 Ozarks 70
Well, jeffsu was glumly predicting a 20+ blowout but instead we got an 11 point loss that was only a 7 point game with about four minutes remaining.  Like an ex-boss of mine loved to say: "Always try to under-promise and over-achieve."  I didn't like him very much.  Moving on, with the victory Ozarks and spike claim at least a share of a divisional title while Hendrix and jeffsu will look to bounce back in the final two games of the conference season.

Also considered: #2 Johnson and Wales pulled away late for a 91-87 win over Rivier, #3 Millsaps had no trouble with Trinity 84-55, and #21 S. Vermont got past Emmanuel 66-54.

Sim blowout watch: McMurry squeaked out a cover against #22 Hardin-Simmons 59-111 while Pacific Lutheran had an easier time covering at #20 Whitworth 55-74.

ITaLRbHAGotN: John Carroll continued their long streak of dominance over Ohio Northern with a 76-66 road win.  The visitors opened up a double digit lead halfway through the first half and then were able to maintain about that sized lead until the end.  With the win John Carroll and whit6r stay tied for the divisional lead and Ohio Northern and ekulka had their lead in the standings cut to one game.

GotN
#10 Suffolk (21-3)(chichisteve) at #2 Johnson and Wales (23-1)(spasticity)

A big cross-divisional battle in the Great Northeast as the two division winners meet for their annual matchup.  J&W is looking to finish off an impressive undefeated run through the conference slate while a road upset for Suffolk would be a very nice post-season resume win.  spasticity leads the series 10-3 and his Spider Monkeys are favored by 4 points at home.

Also considered: #12 Dallas at #3 Millsaps, Sewanee at #4 Ozarks, and #15 Emory at Trinity

Sim blowout watch: Kenyon is getting a hefty 80 points hosting #16 Wittenberg while two spreads are in the 60's: George Fox getting 63 against #20 Whitworth and Ferrum with 62 hosting #1 Piedmont.

ITaLRbHAGotN
It's a double feature in the ITaLRbHAGotN with two games between divisional leaders, each one featuring an undefeated-in-conference team:

Texas Lutheran (20-4)(blapo21) at #22 Hardin-Simmons (20-4)(sublightd)

In the ASC, Hardin-Simmons has a perfect 14-0 conference record but they finish with two tough games while Texas Lutheran has already clinched their division title.  sublightd has a big 30-14 lead in the series and his team is favored by 2 at home.

Eureka (15-9)(usjgt) at #23 Calvin (20-4)(prc56)
Over in the Michigan conference, Calvin also needs two more wins to finish undefeated in conference while Eureka needs one more win to clinch a division title. usjgt has a 14-9 advantage in the series but the home team is favored by 5 in this one.
9/19/2013 2:36 PM
Last night of the conference season tonight, only one more GotN writeup after this one.  Sad face.

Last Night
#13 Suffolk 71   #2 Johnson and Wales
The Spider Monkeys are pretty serious about finishing the conference season undefeated.  J&W took the lead early in the game and stayed on top for pretty much the entire game.  They had four starters in double figures including 21 by Bryan Davis.  J&W and spasticity are now just one win away from conference perfection and look to be a real threat in the post-season.  Suffolk and chichisteve suffered their third loss of the conference slate but have already clinched their division title.

Also considered: #10 Dallas scored a big road upset over #3 Millsaps thanks to a go-ahead basket with four seconds left, making the final score 57-55, #4 Ozarks had no trouble with Sewanee 73-43, and #12 Emory got past Trinity 74-56.

Sim blowout watch: Kenyon is still winless but they still easily covered against #17 Wittenberg 53-76 and both teams with 60+ spreads covered: George Fox at #22 Whitworth 49-84 and Ferrum against #1 Piedmont 71-110.

ITaLRbHAGotN: Both ranked teams with undefeated conference records kept rolling last night with home victories.  #19 Hardin-Simmons cruised past Texas Lutheran 113-85 and #23 Calvin handled Eureka 92-82.

GotN
#1 Piedmont (25-0)(bunkerbuster) at #6 Oglethorpe (23-2)(getiguy)

Quite a few good looking season-ending games tonight but I think this is the obvious top biller.  Our undefeated top-ranked team in the nation will try to finish off a perfect regular season with a visit to the team just one game behind them in the division standings.  Oglethorpe has only lost the one conference game to Piedmont so a win for the season split here would be a good resume builder.  bunkerbuster leads the series 8-1 and the visitors are favored by 6.

Also considered: #25 W. New England at #13 Suffolk, #4 Ozarks at Louisiana, #12 Emory at Hendrix, and Howard Payne at #19 Hardin-Simmons

Sim blowout watch: Winless Anderson is getting 53 points as they visit Defiance and Ferrum is a 40 point home dog vs #5 Greensboro.

ITaLRbHAGotN
Wooster (17-8)(pseudochamp) at #17 Wittenberg (23-2)(darnoc29099)
Huge night in the North Coast at Wooster takes the trip to Wittenberg with hopes of continuing their season-saving winning streak and ruining Wittenberg's bid for an undefeated conference record.  Wooster is squarely on the bubble and an upset win here would go a long way towards easing the nerves of their handsome coach.  Wittenberg is in line for a high NT seed but a season sweep of Wooster would be some happy bragging rights for their homely coach.  The home team is only favored by 5 which seems low given Wittenberg's recent penchant for outright cheating.
9/20/2013 11:36 AM
Now that the conference season has completed, congrats to the five teams that made it through the regular season unscathed: Piedmont, Lynchburg, New York U, Vassar, and Ramapo.  Also an extra special congrats to Fisk on beating sim-controlled Maryville on the final night to just avoid going winless this season.  Nice job.

Last Night
#1 Piedmont 79   #9 Oglethorpe 69
The home team kept it close throughout but they were unable to slow down the #1 team in the nation.  Piedmont was in front most of the way and pulled away a little bit late in the second half to push the lead to double digits.  Piedmont and bunkerbuster finishd off an undefeated regular season with the second highest strength of schedule rating.  Oglethorpe and getiguy suffered their second conference loss but are still in great shape for the post-season.

Also considered: #25 W. New England exploded for a 78-55 road win over #19 Suffolk, #4 Ozarks got past Louisiana 78-68, #11 Emory edged Hendrix 52-46, and #17 Hardin-Simmons finished off a perfect conference run with a 97-92 win over Howard Payne.

Sim blowout watch: Anderson finished winless but covered against Defiance 51-78 and Ferrum covered at home to #5 Greensboro 65-88.

ITaLRbHAGotN: #16 Wittenberg had a big first half and then cruised to a 74-64 win over visiting Wooster, finishing 16-0 in the North Coast in the process.  A hearty and sincere congratulations to Wittenberg and darnoc for that glorious achievement.  I totally mean that.  Wittenberg is practically my most favorite-est school in the whole wide world so that performance makes me just downright giddy.  Seriously.  I love them.  It's awesome.  (loud, extended sigh)

So that finishes off another regular season of the GotN writeups.  I hope everyone was both entertained and enlightened and I'm sure you're all rooting for Wooster to eek out an NT birth.  Good luck to everyone in the post-season, especially Wooster.  They'll need it.

9/20/2013 12:59 PM
Great stuff all season pseudochamp. Thanks ... and good luck to Wooster!
9/22/2013 10:52 AM
Great job this season pseudo!
9/22/2013 9:18 PM
Loved reading the daily write-ups - thanks!
9/23/2013 12:34 PM
Tip of the cap to tiyob90, playing for the Capital title tonight as No. 301 on the projection report with Marymount (12-17). he's facing a simmed Stevenson (19-10) for all the marbles.
9/23/2013 2:19 PM
(Apologies to rednu if he's started working on this.)

Regular Season Conference Champions

ASC -- #14 Hardin-Simmons (sublightd) went 16-0 for the second time in three seasons to claim their third straight conference title.
Capital -- Hood (Sim) was the best of the simmies with a 13-3 record, first title in four seasons.
Centennial -- #15 Ursinus (barjaz) got the win over Dickinson to finish a perfect 16-0.  The streak of undefeated conference titles is now seven seasons.
CUNY -- Hunter (Sim) won the head-to-head tiebreaker with Polytechnic after they both finished at 14-2.
CCIW -- Elmhurst (Sim) finished 16-0 for the title, two straight for the school.
Coast -- Wentworth Tech (chewchad) once again finished on top with a 15-1 record, extending their conference title streak to forever + 1.
Commonwealth -- #7 Susquehanna (zeuspole) and #17 Penn St Altoona (frankgrimes1) both finished 15-1 and they split their two games.  Susquehanna gets the nod thanks to the better overall record by one game.
Empire -- #21 Vassar (theriddler) was perfect at 16-0 for the third time in four seasons.
Freedom -- Deleware Valley (Sim) one the simmie war to finish 15-1.  I also just learned they're not in Deleware.  Interesting.
GNE -- #2 Johnson and Wales (spasticity) out-spider monkey'd the competition to earn a 15-1 record.  Fourth straight conference title.
Heartland -- Defiance (nm1brownsfan) went 15-1 to get back to the top spot after a one year hiatus.
Iowa -- Coe (Sim) finished tied with Simpson at 14-2 but won the head-to-head battle back in the first game of the conference season.
Lil East -- UMass Dartmouth (pureh21) ran the table to finish 16-0 for their third straight title.
Michigan -- #20 Calvin (prc56) was another 16-0 conference winner, their second straight.
Midwest -- Ripon (Sim) tied another sim for best record at 13-3 but swept their series for the title.
Minnesota -- Hamline (foofighter13) finished 15-1 to win a third straight title.
NESCAC -- Tufts (zmark513) tied a simmie at 15-1 and split the season series.  Tufts gets the nod with the better overall record.
New Jersey -- #10 Ramapo (pgj930) was perfect at 16-0 and also undefeated in non-conference as well.
N. Atlantic -- Becker (Sim) was best of the sims at 12-4, capturing the school's first conference title in 55 seasons.  Nice!
N. Coast -- #18 Wittenberg (darnoc29099) went 16-0 for their second straight season o' cheating.
Northwest -- #19 Whitworth (tim_buggie) won their first title in four seasons at 15-1.
Ohio -- John Carroll (whit6r) was 15-1 to secure yet another conference title.
ODAC -- #6 Lynchburg (googs04) ran the table for the second straight 16-0 season.
Penn -- Arcadia (Sim) edged a fellow sim by one game to finish on top at 14-2.
Skyline -- Mount St. Mary (bstevens07) also won the title by one game, finishing 15-1.
So. Cal. -- #24 Colorado (bdpoor) won the three-way rock/scissors/paper/lizard/Spock competition by one game at 14-2.  Fourth straight title.
St. Louis -- #8 Webster (mschulte24) Gorloked everyone to death to finish 16-0 for their sixth straight Gorlok.
SUNY -- SUNY Oneonta (Sim) held off the mostly simmed competitors to finish 13-3.
University -- #5 Ozarks (spike101) won the cross-divisional game against Millsaps to win the conference at 14-2.  First title in four seasons.
Upstate -- #13 New York U. (ajlillie) went undefeated overall to easily win a second straight title for the school.
USA South -- #1 Piedmont (bunkerbuster) dominated all year for a second-straight 16-0 season.
Wisconsin -- Concordia (hoboman) finished 15-1 for the school's first title in four seasons.
9/23/2013 2:55 PM
Few things:
1) As always, awesome job Pseudo. 
2) I'm on pace for another 3-seed.  I just noticed chewchad's Wentworth Tech team is sitting at #64 on the PPR.  If I get a second straight crazy first round matchup, I might cry. 
3) The cut line for the NT is between 44 (Wooster) and 53 right now on the PPR.  No pressure tonight, Pseudo.

9/23/2013 3:42 PM
Conference Championship Games

ASC -- #14 Hardin-Simmons (24-4, 18) vs Howard Payne (21-7, 37)
Capital -- Stevenson U. (19-10, 156) vs Marymount (12-17, 301)
Centennial -- #15 Ursinus (26-2, 16) vs #22 Dickinson (23-5, 22)
CUNY -- Medgar Evers (22-6, 69) vs York (18-11, 130)
CCIW -- Northland (19-9, 62) vs Elmhurst (24-4, 55)
Coast -- Wentworth Tech (20-8, 64) vs E. Nazarene (23-5, 84)
Commonwealth -- #7 Susquehanna (26-2, 8) vs #17 Penn St. Altoona (25-3, 17)
Empire -- Utica (19-9, 93) vs Hartwick (19-9, 126)
Freedom -- Scranton (19-9, 144) vs Frostburg St. (17-12, 177)
GNE -- #2 Johnson and Wales (26-2, 2) vs #16 Suffolk (23-5, 9)
Heartland -- Defiance (23-5, 47) vs Westminster (19-9, 109)
Iowa -- Coe (24-4, 46) vs Buena Vista (21-7, 38)
Lil East -- Fitchburg St. (23-5, 72) vs Framingham St. (18-10, 94)
Michigan -- #20 Calvin (24-4, 15) vs Alma (19-9, 56)
Midwest -- Illinois (23-5, 92) vs Monmouth (22-7, 106)
Minnesota -- Hamline (23-5, 52) vs St. Mary's (20-9, 134)
NESCAC -- Tufts (26-2, 43) vs Worcester St. (25-3, 39)
New Jersey -- #10 Ramapo (28-0, 19) vs Rowan (23-6, 59)
N. Atlantic -- Becker (20-8, 132) vs Maine Farmington (18-11, 186)
N. Coast -- #18 Wittenberg (26-2, 12) vs #Awesome Wooster (19-9, 44)
Northwest -- #19 Whitworth (25-3, 21) vs Willamette (19-9, 34)
Ohio -- John Carroll (22-6, 51) vs Ohio Northern (21-7, 66)
ODAC -- #6 Lynchburg (28-0, 10) vs Virginia Wesleyan (21-7, 96)
Penn -- Arcadia (23-5, 97) vs Misericordia (21-7, 111)
Skyline -- US Merchant Marines (18-10, 42) vs Mount St. Mary (24-4, 33)
So. Cal. -- #25 Whittier (23-5, 27) vs CSU Eastbay (22-7, 36)
St. Louis -- #8 Webster (27-1, 14) vs Aurora (22-6, 73)
SUNY -- SUNY Cortland (18-10, 133) vs Buffalo St. (16-12, 166)
University -- #3 Millsaps (24-4, 3) vs #9 Emory (22-6, 5)
Upstate -- #13 New York U. (28-0, 25) vs Brandeis (19-10, 90)
USA South -- #1 Piedmont (28-0, 1) vs #4 Greensboro (25-3, 7)
Wisconsin -- Concordia (23-5, 30) vs Wisconsin Superior (12-16, 207)

Ten games with teams outside the top 64 in the projection report pushes the cutoff to 54.  That now includes the CCIW so the cutoff is 53.  Nine games involve only one team outside the top 53.  After tonight, 1-44 on the project report will automatically be in and teams lower than 53 can hope for the PIT at best.  The teams projected between 45 and 53 will be rooting hard for the higher projected teams in those nine games.
9/23/2013 3:49 PM
Thanks for putting this together!
9/23/2013 4:19 PM
What he said
9/23/2013 7:27 PM
Nicely done pseudo! I was going to try and get stuff up earlier today and just didn't catch a break to focus on it.
9/24/2013 9:53 AM

Tourney Odds: https://skydrive.live.com/redir?resid=12F292D230074904!946&authkey=!AMcTGmcz3ROQr6I

 

Seed Team Rating 32 16 8 4 2 1
1 Piedmont 57.9 100.00% 95.99% 87.62% 69.35% 50.19% 37.14%
16 Stevenson University 44.76 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8 Willamette 51.14 40.99% 1.18% 0.26% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%
9 Louisiana 51.98 59.01% 2.84% 0.86% 0.13% 0.01% 0.00%
4 S. Vermont 54.02 86.63% 60.19% 8.78% 2.98% 0.76% 0.20%
13 Wooster 50.07 13.37% 3.38% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
5 Dickinson 52.01 42.35% 13.43% 0.69% 0.11% 0.01% 0.00%
12 U.S. Merchant Marines 52.73 57.65% 23.01% 1.73% 0.37% 0.05% 0.01%
2 Emory 55.87 97.70% 77.33% 50.61% 16.22% 7.64% 3.70%
15 Illinois 48.73 2.30% 0.23% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
7 Whittier 53.4 61.53% 16.06% 5.80% 0.66% 0.13% 0.03%
10 Howard Payne 52.31 38.47% 6.38% 1.55% 0.10% 0.01% 0.00%
3 Lynchburg 50.85 75.99% 9.17% 0.81% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
14 Fitchburg St. 48.28 24.01% 0.69% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
6 Rivier 55.13 90.50% 85.50% 40.89% 10.02% 3.83% 1.51%
11 Buena Vista 50.44 9.50% 4.63% 0.32% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
1 Ozarks 56 97.83% 79.52% 56.63% 26.71% 9.48% 4.75%
16 Becker 48.75 2.17% 0.24% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8 Christopher Newport 53.12 92.49% 20.13% 7.67% 1.31% 0.14% 0.03%
9 Tufts 48.04 7.51% 0.11% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
4 Webster 53.98 88.03% 40.68% 13.00% 3.17% 0.51% 0.13%
13 Medgar Evers 49.81 11.97% 1.14% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
5 W. New England 54.6 95.68% 57.90% 22.63% 7.01% 1.47% 0.49%
12 Hamline 48.53 4.32% 0.28% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2 Susquehanna 55.96 99.19% 80.34% 35.93% 20.40% 7.17% 3.56%
15 Hartwick 47.21 0.81% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
7 Concordia (WI) 53.17 60.03% 13.55% 2.26% 0.56% 0.06% 0.01%
10 CSU, Eastbay 52.22 39.97% 6.07% 0.66% 0.11% 0.01% 0.00%
3 Oglethorpe 56.82 96.47% 93.40% 60.52% 40.66% 18.53% 11.20%
14 Trinity (TX) 50.41 3.53% 1.44% 0.09% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
6 New York U. 51.4 75.59% 4.81% 0.53% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00%
11 UMass, Dartmouth 48.88 24.41% 0.35% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1 Johnson and Wales 56.76 99.52% 95.36% 73.55% 64.80% 41.76% 18.92%
16 Scranton 47.3 0.48% 0.08% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8 Mount St. Mary 50.79 50.41% 2.33% 0.34% 0.08% 0.00% 0.00%
9 Hendrix 50.75 49.59% 2.23% 0.32% 0.07% 0.00% 0.00%
4 Hardin-Simmons 54.73 91.65% 69.54% 21.70% 14.46% 5.48% 1.23%
13 Northland 49.82 8.35% 1.78% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
5 Ramapo 52.9 78.01% 26.30% 3.96% 1.80% 0.34% 0.03%
12 Defiance 50.12 21.99% 2.38% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
2 Dallas 53.7 92.91% 51.31% 29.47% 6.33% 1.66% 0.23%
15 Arcadia 48.53 7.09% 0.57% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
7 Whitworth 53.64 64.88% 34.93% 19.80% 4.15% 1.06% 0.14%
10 John Carroll 52.21 35.12% 13.19% 5.25% 0.58% 0.08% 0.01%
3 Wittenberg 53.63 75.13% 55.23% 30.85% 6.46% 1.65% 0.22%
14 St. Joseph's (ME) 51.17 24.87% 11.17% 3.08% 0.19% 0.01% 0.00%
6 Palm Beach Atlantic 52.05 57.58% 21.28% 7.91% 0.82% 0.10% 0.01%
11 Emory and Henry 51.34 42.42% 12.32% 3.58% 0.24% 0.02% 0.00%
1 Millsaps 54.98 98.65% 78.85% 42.05% 15.89% 6.19% 1.53%
16 SUNY Cortland 46.98 1.35% 0.09% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8 Vassar 51.49 41.35% 7.02% 1.14% 0.10% 0.01% 0.00%
9 Emmanuel 52.31 58.65% 14.05% 3.24% 0.42% 0.06% 0.00%
4 Calvin 53.04 44.27% 12.39% 4.23% 0.76% 0.14% 0.01%
13 Wentworth Tech. 53.57 55.73% 18.75% 7.58% 1.73% 0.40% 0.05%
5 Ursinus 55.31 94.84% 68.17% 41.71% 17.38% 7.51% 2.12%
12 Worcester St. 49.52 5.16% 0.69% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2 Greensboro 56.58 99.31% 56.20% 40.03% 28.81% 17.17% 7.41%
15 Westminster (PA) 47.58 0.69% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
7 Colorado 56.01 98.63% 43.78% 28.31% 18.48% 9.65% 3.48%
10 Coe 48.04 1.37% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
3 Suffolk 55.29 73.25% 65.02% 26.63% 15.08% 6.48% 1.81%
14 Sewanee 53.04 26.75% 17.32% 3.09% 0.93% 0.17% 0.02%
6 Penn St. Altoona 52.21 68.26% 14.60% 1.79% 0.39% 0.05% 0.00%
11 E. Oregon 50.46 31.74% 3.05% 0.14% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
9/24/2013 11:26 AM
Final Four predicts

Midwest Region -- What a top of the bracket! Undefeated Piedmont. Undefeated Lynchburg. And sandwiched between them is the two-time defending national champion, Emory. I'll be honest, I'm skeptical that Lynchburg is the real deal. I have no similar reservations about Piedmont or Emory. Also worth keeping an eye on here is the six seed out of the GNE, Rivier. But let's be honest, this season is all about the dominance of the USA South (the fact that the University and GNE combined for 15 tournaments seeds notwithstanding). This bracket is all Piedmont's to lose.

East Region -- Let's be honest, this season is all about the dominance of the USA South...and I'm picking Oglethorpe to win the region. It isn't as clear cut though. Top seed Ozarks out of the University looks like a strong contender. The four seed of Webster won't be an easy pass and I'll cast my own team under the 5-12 bus by saying W. New England (at some point I really should go online and see if that W. stands for West or Western...) could make waves as well if we catch a wave of consistency. That said, I still think Oglethorpe has a little more in the tank than any of us to position them well for the bracket. They're also on the opposite half of the region from every other team I just named.

South Region -- Fiftheen coaches have a Spider Monkey on their backs and its name is Johnson and Wales. The GNE heavyweight is looking strong, having lost just twice in the regular season. The best challengers to be found might be four seed Hardin-Simmons, in what would be another clash of two Rupp Hall of Fame coaches, and the scary seven seed of Whitworth, which has way better numbers than the seed would indicate. Two seed Dallas is strong up top, but I'm concerned about depth for this stage of the proceedings.

West Region -- Strongest bracket, top to bottom, in the tournament in my opinion. Any of the top five seeds plus seven seed Colorado have a legitimate claim to be able to win the thing. Top seed Millsaps is tough. Greensboro held their own in the mosh pit that was the top of the USA South this season. Suffolk was top dog in an insanely stacked half of the GNE this season and Calvin is always tough. But I like Ursinus the best here by a whisker over Greensboro. Everythign after opening night in this bracket is going to be an absolute war though.

Final Four -- Advance Piedmont and Johnson & Wales out of the national semifinals. Hand the trophy to...J-Dub, who will avenge a non-confnerece 10-point loss to Piedmont to hoist the hardware. Hey, I just column like I see 'um...now it's your turn to make some noise!

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