8/21/2013 11:31 AM
Here are my predictions for this year's tourney:

Team Conference Wins Conf Wins Rating Conf Rank NT Overall Rank NT Seed
Piedmont USA South 23.36 14.65 54.89 1 1 1 1
Oglethorpe USA South 23.8 14.24 54.26 2 1 2 1
Johnson and Wales Great NE 22.94 14.59 53.64 1 1 3 1
Susquehanna CC 23.98 15.71 53.14 1 1 4 1
Greensboro USA South 23.03 13.69 52.6 3 1 5 2
Ozarks University 22.76 14 52.59 1 1 6 2
Texas Lutheran ASC 23.63 15.41 52.57 1 1 7 2
Suffolk Great NE 21.86 12.46 52.22 2 1 8 2
Colorado S. Cal. 23.62 14.72 52.14 1 1 9 3
Rivier Great NE 20.19 11.93 51.79 3 1 10 3
Emory University 20.57 12.83 51.76 2 1 11 3
Ursinus Centennial 24.04 15.69 51.66 1 1 12 3
Millsaps University 19.95 12.51 51.47 3 1 13 4
Hardin-Simmons ASC 21.34 14.44 50.98 2 1 14 4
W. New England Great NE 18.96 10.68 50.9 4 1 15 4
Whitworth Northwest 24.2 14.95 50.38 1 1 16 4
Webster St. Louis 23.33 15.47 50.29 1 1 17 5
S. Vermont Great NE 17.36 9.76 50.26 5 1 18 5
Dallas University 19.04 11.23 50.2 4 1 19 5
Ramapo New Jersey 23.96 15.28 50.1 1 1 20 5
CSU, Eastbay S. Cal. 21.54 12.86 49.98 2 1 21 6
Wittenberg N. Coast 22.29 15.3 49.96 1 1 22 6
Concordia (WI) Wisconsin 22.13 15.29 49.91 1 1 23 6
Christopher Newport USA South 17.46 11.24 49.89 4 1 24 6
Calvin Michigan 21.28 14.73 49.87 1 1 25 7
Sewanee University 18.46 10.15 49.76 5 1 26 7
Whittier S. Cal. 19.85 12.48 49.64 3 1 27 7
Wentworth Tech. Coast 21.21 14.92 49.22 1 1 28 7
Emmanuel Great NE 16.73 8.78 48.74 6 1 29 8
Dickinson Centennial 17.97 14.2 48.63 2 1 30 8
U.S. Merchant Marines Skyline 18.03 14.15 48.63 1 1 31 8
Otterbein Ohio 22.75 14.03 48.6 1 1 32 8
Palm Beach Atlantic USA South 14.86 8.7 48.49 5 1 33 9
Louisiana University 15.55 8.82 48.47 6 1 34 9
Howard Payne ASC 17.97 12.13 48.43 3 1 35 9
John Carroll Ohio 20.12 13.91 48.39 2 1 36 9
Vassar Empire 8 23.03 14.66 48.38 1 1 37 10
New York U. Upstate 23.46 14.41 48.29 1 1 38 10
N. Carolina Wesleyan USA South 15.52 8.47 48.27 6 1 39 10
Penn St. Altoona CC 18.6 12.78 48.21 2 1 40 10
St. John's Minn. IAC 20.73 14.57 48.14 1 1 41 11
Emory and Henry ODAC 22.12 13.61 48.04 1 1 42 11
St. Joseph's (ME) Great NE 15.23 6.39 48.01 7 1 43 11
Emerson Great NE 16.18 7.11 47.59 8 1 44 11
Chowan USA South 16.2 8.71 47.41 7 1 45 12
Pittsburgh, Bradford CC 20.27 12.05 47.37 3 1 46 12
E. Nazarene Coast 20.99 13.64 47.26 2 1 47 12
Mount St. Mary Skyline 18.87 12.6 47.25 2 1 48 12
E. Oregon Northwest 19.58 11.76 47.13 2 1 49 13
Ohio Northern Ohio 18.5 12.5 47.11 3 1 50 13
CMHMS S. Cal. 20.41 11.45 47.11 4 1 51 13
Hendrix University 13.51 6.07 47.08 7 1 52 13
Defiance Heartland 20.32 13.58 47.02 1 1 54 14
Medgar Evers CUNY 21.48 13.35 46.96 1 1 55 14
Becker N.Atlantic 21.57 14.1 46.6 1 1 61 14
Framingham St. Little E. 18.86 12.72 46.34 1 1 67 14
Connecticut NESCAC 21.61 13.76 46.25 1 1 71 15
Cornell Iowa IAC 16.57 12.38 45.92 1 1 81 15
Arcadia Penn. 21.03 13.61 45.76 1 1 85 15
Elmhurst CCIW 17.41 11.9 45.71 1 1 86 15
SUNY Oneonta SUNYAC 19.07 13.32 45.61 1 1 88 16
Illinois Midwest 19.79 12.84 45.58 1 1 89 16
DeSales Freedom 19.46 12.15 45.34 1 1 101 16
Mary Washington Capital 20.18 12.47 44.42 1 1 149 16
8/21/2013 11:37 AM
Here is a link to the ratings and predicted wins for all teams in D3:

skydrive.live.com/redir

Here are the rosters for all teams in D3:

skydrive.live.com/redir


8/21/2013 11:39 AM
Nice job on this bullman and thanks again for posting these.  One comment though, I think you misspelled Wooster in the list above.  As in, you've misspelled it with a lot of different letters so that it actually spells a different school.  Easy mistake.
8/21/2013 12:42 PM
Love the predictions - thanks bullman!
8/21/2013 1:01 PM
I would not hate those predictions at all. Two seasons from 0-16 to 11-5 in the toughest conference in D3? Would take it. 
8/21/2013 1:34 PM
My call to win 'em all

ASC -- Texas Lutheran looks the tiniest smidge better than Hardin-Simmons in what should be a great two-team race.
Capital -- Nobody starts the season ranked over 500, but St. Mary's of Maryland witha 10-player rotation should have enough to win the league.
Centennial -- Ursinus is the preseason No. 1 and there's little reason to doubt they'll carry the league. Better disussion question -- can a team with 38 speed win a national title?
CUNY -- Polytechnic gets my nod ahead of NYCT and Medgar Evers.
CCIW -- There could be some good competition here, but the human factor still makes Northland the team to beat.
Coast -- It's the Coast, so we're talking Wentworth all the way.
Commonwealth -- Typically a two-team battle between Susquehanna and Altoona, this year's call is for Susquehanna as PSA appears in a bit of a recycle.
Empire -- Riddler's Vassar squad is the elite of the Empire this season.
Freedom -- In a human-free league with no real frontrunner, I'll reach down and call DeSales the leader.
GNE -- Five ranked teams to start the season in the Evil Empire, but the presense of my team on that list calls it all into question. Despite that power, Johnson & Wales looks a clear line better than the other four.
Heartland -- Defiance looks to be the clear favorite atop the league chase.
Iowa -- Dare we call anyone but Buena Vista to win the league? No. We do not dare.
Little East -- UMass Dartmouth holding off a simmed Rhode Island is what I'm seeing in my crystal ball. It will be interesting to see how MLA fares.
Michigan -- Always a fun league because year after year it looks so close on paper. This is no exception as Calvin and Eureka grade out very similar. I'll give a slim edge to Calvin.
Midwest -- No team starts over 500. Rose-Hulman Tech, by virtue of being the only human in the conference, gets my nod.
Minnesota -- Even though they're simmed, I'll call St. John's above the human-coached Hamline squad. Moorhead's roster raises some eyebrows.
NESCAC -- In the league that often comes down to Conn and Tufts, I'm going to call this season for Connecticut.
New Jersey -- Ramapo could be underrated at 23 and could easily 16-0 the New Jersey this season.
N. Atlantic -- Maine, Presque Isle looks teh best in a league where the teams are all jumbled up and humans don't seem to matter.
NCAC -- Wittenberg, with some recently proclaimed message board "hate," will back it up with a league title.
Northwest -- Whitworth appears to stand clear of the field in the Northwest this season. Possibly also underranked at 20.
Ohio -- Otterbein is ranked, but is simmed. On paper, they're also the best team in the league. But since I have a suitable human option, I'll go with John Carroll in the battle fo brains vs. bytes.
ODAC -- Emory & Henry gets my nod ahead of Lynchburg.
Penn -- Misericordia and Arcadia are about as evenly matched as two teams can be. Both have humongous junior superclasses. I'll give the slimmest of nods to Misericordia since I have to make a pick.
Skyline -- US Merchant Marines appears to be back to its dominant profile in the Skyline this season.
So. Cal -- How's everyone feel about Colorado? Good? We're good? Good.
St. Louis -- Webster is going for its fifth straight 16-0. They'll likely get it.
SUNY -- Fredonia gets my nod, but nobody is going to strike the fear of God into non-conference foex.
University -- The University starts with 4 of the top 14 teams in the nation this year. Two-time champs Emory have reloaded admirably. But Ozarks is my pick to win the league.
Upstate -- New York Univ. might be simmed for the first time in many, many seasons, but they're still the best team in the league, though RPI could challenge.
USA South -- Home to three of the top five teams in the nation this season, this could be a fun conference to watch. The voters got it right for once as Piedmont is slightly the better of the lot.
Wisconsin -- Concordia(WI) has the best of this league, which produced last season's national runner-up.
 
8/21/2013 2:16 PM
Nice work bullman and rednu. Thanks.

Very cool this thread is already in it's 3rd page.
8/21/2013 3:59 PM
I'm very surprised to see that bullman and I agreed on our favorite to win the Freedom. I really thought I was dipping deep into the pool there.
8/21/2013 4:26 PM
16/17 wins would be nice. wish it could happen
8/21/2013 5:05 PM
Holy cow. You have Hendrix in the NT? I'm amazed. This team has struggled, especially in the UAA, with the prediction for 6 wins. I'd hve to go back three seasons to total that many Conf wins!
8/21/2013 5:57 PM
Great stuff guys. Always look forward to the predictions. No offense to last years teams but there are some monster teams this year. There will be several teams over a 600 team rating will another handful close. Very stacked teams this season. Let the fun begin!
8/21/2013 6:30 PM
Beating  the worst team in the country  by 8 in an exibition means bad things... we'll see against ''the invisible national tournament team. Wooster.
8/21/2013 6:35 PM
Posted by pseudochamp on 8/19/2013 11:09:00 PM (view original):
No worries jlrunruh, it'll take way more than messing up my username to offend me.  I have darnoc in my conference, gotta have a high tolerance if you're going to spend any time with that guy.
If you had any offense take it out on me. Every game counts. (ILL bet about darnoc)

8/21/2013 6:37 PM
I know i'm stressing a bit about playing a non-sim but i have 3 games against non sims all season lemme alone
8/21/2013 7:15 PM (edited)
 I'm very surprised to see that bullman and I agreed on our favorite to win the Freedom. I really thought I was dipping deep into the pool there. 

Picking names out of a hat is probably as accurate as anything else in the Freedom conference.

I am interested to see how Ursinus does.  I have them 12th, but they start off ranked #1.
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