ESPN HOF ballot revealed. Topic

bad_luck
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Posted by MikeT23 on 1/9/2014 1:10:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 1/9/2014 1:06:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/9/2014 1:04:00 PM (view original):
I'm just not jumping thru your hoops because you know who they are.  Or you're simply stupid because everyone else who has been involved in said discussions knew at a glance. 
Dude, they're your hoops, not mine. But if you don't want to reveal them, that's your deal. I don't care.
If you don't care, prove it.   STFU.  

On the other hand, everyone knows you know who they are.    Don't play extra stupid today.
Ok, I'll drop it. Since it was a point you were trying (and failing) to make.
1/9/2014 1:31 PM
tecwrg
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Posted by bad_luck on 1/9/2014 1:31:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/9/2014 1:10:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 1/9/2014 1:06:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/9/2014 1:04:00 PM (view original):
I'm just not jumping thru your hoops because you know who they are.  Or you're simply stupid because everyone else who has been involved in said discussions knew at a glance. 
Dude, they're your hoops, not mine. But if you don't want to reveal them, that's your deal. I don't care.
If you don't care, prove it.   STFU.  

On the other hand, everyone knows you know who they are.    Don't play extra stupid today.
Ok, I'll drop it. Since it was a point you were trying (and failing) to make.
LOL.

You've never dropped an argument in these forums before.  *******, you argued with biz for months about the age of the earth.

So why are you tucking your tail and bowing out so easily this time?
1/9/2014 1:37 PM
bad_luck
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Posted by tecwrg on 1/9/2014 1:37:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 1/9/2014 1:31:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/9/2014 1:10:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 1/9/2014 1:06:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/9/2014 1:04:00 PM (view original):
I'm just not jumping thru your hoops because you know who they are.  Or you're simply stupid because everyone else who has been involved in said discussions knew at a glance. 
Dude, they're your hoops, not mine. But if you don't want to reveal them, that's your deal. I don't care.
If you don't care, prove it.   STFU.  

On the other hand, everyone knows you know who they are.    Don't play extra stupid today.
Ok, I'll drop it. Since it was a point you were trying (and failing) to make.
LOL.

You've never dropped an argument in these forums before.  *******, you argued with biz for months about the age of the earth.

So why are you tucking your tail and bowing out so easily this time?
So you're suggesting I continue trying to badger mike into posting the names of the players he was trying to make a point with?

Odd.
1/9/2014 1:40 PM
bad_luck
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Going back to the 30% WAR thing, David Freese and Alberto Callaspo were worth the just about the same amount in 2013, yet Callaspo's WAR was 100%!!!! more than Freese's.
1/9/2014 1:45 PM
tecwrg
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What I'm saying is you'll argue ad nauseam when you think you're "right".  That's your thing here in the forums.

Now, you're walking away from this particular line of discussion saying that you don't care.

Odd.
1/9/2014 1:46 PM
bad_luck
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Posted by tecwrg on 1/9/2014 1:47:00 PM (view original):
What I'm saying is you'll argue ad nauseam when you think you're "right".  That's your thing here in the forums.

Now, you're walking away from this particular line of discussion saying that you don't care.

Odd.
I will gladly discuss the players. But mike's not willing to say who they are. And everyone has agreed that we need more than oWAR to assess a player's hall of fame case.

You say you know who they are, feel free.
1/9/2014 2:16 PM (edited)
bad_luck
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Posted by bad_luck on 1/9/2014 1:45:00 PM (view original):
Going back to the 30% WAR thing, David Freese and Alberto Callaspo were worth the just about the same amount in 2013, yet Callaspo's WAR was 100%!!!! more than Freese's.
Fun with small numbers.
1/9/2014 1:54 PM
tecwrg
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Posted by bad_luck on 1/9/2014 1:54:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 1/9/2014 1:47:00 PM (view original):
What I'm saying is you'll argue ad nauseam when you think you're "right".  That's your thing here in the forums.

Now, you're walking away from this particular line of discussion saying that you don't care.

Odd.
I will gladly discuss the players. But mike's not willing to say who they are. And everyone has agreed that we need more than oWAR to ***** a player's hall of fame case.

You say you know who they are, feel free.
I'll leave it up to Mike to name them if and when he sees fit.  it was his question to begin with.

But I was able to figure out both players on the first guess.  And apparently burnsey was also able to figure out both players pretty quickly.  Within the context of recent player "discussions" in these forums, it wasn't rocket surgery to identify both players.

1/9/2014 2:06 PM
bad_luck
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Sure, but I'm on my phone and finding players by oWAR is a pain in the ***.

Like you said, it was Mike's question to begin with and we all came to the agreement that you need more than just oWAR to assess a player's hall of fame case.
1/9/2014 2:16 PM
MikeT23
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Posted by burnsy483 on 1/9/2014 1:31:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/9/2014 1:09:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 1/9/2014 12:56:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/9/2014 12:44:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 1/9/2014 12:41:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/9/2014 12:30:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 1/9/2014 12:16:00 PM (view original):
"By refusing to acknowledge that there's virtually no difference between the two yet having stated that one is a no doubt HOFer and the other shouldn't get a vote, you're proving my point."

Nobody disagrees with your point that simply looking at career oWAR is a poor way to determine HOF candidacy. 
Would you agree that a 30% difference in WAR is insignificant, badluckjr?
Depends. A WAR difference of 1.2 and 1.6 in one season is pretty insignificant.  A career WAR difference of 50 and 65 is much more significant.
So a player who is insignificantly better for 15-20 seasons can somehow become significantly better at the end of his career?    Are you going to break it down to a week again to prove your point?
If you want me to.  I think it was a good argument.

You also understand what when you use tiny numbers, like 1, that 30% more than that really doesn't change much, right?  A WAR that's 30% higher in one year may not be too significant.  That said, take a year's WAR of 10.4, and compare it to one of 8, and you could argue that's a significant jump. A difference in WAR of 2.4 is a lot more than one of 0.4.  

It isn't.   Break down by game, by inning, by pitch.    The smaller the window, the bigger the difference.   As I asked earlier, I think pretty much everyone know a .333 hitter is better than a .286 hitter over the course of a season. 

$10 to $7 an hour is pretty significant, right?   $10 an hour seems like a small number to me.   Would you notice 30% of your salary being slashed.    20 homers to 14 homers is pretty significant don't you think?   The only 30% that doesn't seem to matter is WAR. 

It's not that hard to get from 1.2 to 1.6 in WAR.  It is harder to get from 8.0 to 10.4.  You need to step up your game a significant amount.

So the difference between 3.1 and 3.5 is insignificant, right?

1/9/2014 2:40 PM
MikeT23
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Posted by bad_luck on 1/9/2014 1:31:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/9/2014 1:10:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 1/9/2014 1:06:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/9/2014 1:04:00 PM (view original):
I'm just not jumping thru your hoops because you know who they are.  Or you're simply stupid because everyone else who has been involved in said discussions knew at a glance. 
Dude, they're your hoops, not mine. But if you don't want to reveal them, that's your deal. I don't care.
If you don't care, prove it.   STFU.  

On the other hand, everyone knows you know who they are.    Don't play extra stupid today.
Ok, I'll drop it. Since it was a point you were trying (and failing) to make.
That you're full of **** and can't figure out who the players are?
1/9/2014 2:42 PM
MikeT23
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Posted by MikeT23 on 1/9/2014 9:58:00 AM (view original):
Way to bail on your indefensible statement.

I'll list a couple of players.
Player A:  16 seasons, 9053 PA, 62.7 oWAR
Player B:  23 seasons, 10359 PA, 68.4 oWAR

Would you believe that you've stated that one has no business in the HOF without a ticket and the other is a no doubt HOFer?  Numbers are from B_R.
Just in case you need to look at the numbers again. 

Keep in mind that you've stated one is a no doubt HOFer and anyone who disagrees is an idiot.
And the other guy can only get in the HOF with a paid price of admission. 

Doesn't ring any bells whatsoever?
1/9/2014 2:43 PM
MikeT23
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"Man, I just can't figure this out.   What player, with 20+ seasons under his belt have I touted as a no doubt HOFer?   There's just so many to pick from!!!!!"   -  bullshit_luck circa today
1/9/2014 2:49 PM
bad_luck
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Posted by MikeT23 on 1/9/2014 2:43:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/9/2014 9:58:00 AM (view original):
Way to bail on your indefensible statement.

I'll list a couple of players.
Player A:  16 seasons, 9053 PA, 62.7 oWAR
Player B:  23 seasons, 10359 PA, 68.4 oWAR

Would you believe that you've stated that one has no business in the HOF without a ticket and the other is a no doubt HOFer?  Numbers are from B_R.
Just in case you need to look at the numbers again. 

Keep in mind that you've stated one is a no doubt HOFer and anyone who disagrees is an idiot.
And the other guy can only get in the HOF with a paid price of admission. 

Doesn't ring any bells whatsoever?
I'm at my computer now. It's Raines and Williams.

Raines should be in the hall. Williams is at the very best a borderline case and not someone I'd be willing to vote for, less worthy than Kenny Lofton.

The BR breakdown of WAR/oWAR/dWAR isn't expained well. But fangraphs layout makes it easy to understand.

Let's look at Raines, Williams, and Tony Gwynn (to give some context).

For offensive runs above average (the way oWAR is determined but without any positional adjustment):

Raines: 307.7
Williams: 302.5
Gwynn: 390.2

Gwynn is by far the best hitter. Raines and Williams are very similar.

Baserunning runs above average (not factored into oWAR but in WAR):

Raines:100.7
Williams: -12.4
Gwynn: 11.3

Raines gaines a huge amount of ground on the base paths.

Fielding runs above average calculated primarily with Total Zone (UZR after 2002) and adjusted for position:

Raines: -109.6
Williams: -143.0
Gwynn: -92.2

Raines picks up about 30 runs on Williams here.

Note that those include positional adjustments which are large negative numbers for corner outfielders and small positive numbers for CF.

The adjustment is applied every year so if youre reading this and saying to yourself, "bullshit, Gwynn was a great right fielder," well, he was early on and, like most players, got worse as he got older and fatter, but he's also getting hammered by a negative positional adjustment factor every year.

Fangraphs then adds them up, applies factors for league average and replacement level, and gives us a grand total of:

Raines: 638.4
Williams: 459.4
Gwynn: 642.3

Those numbers are in runs above replacement. Divide by 10 to get their approximate WAR.

One of these things is not like the others.


1/9/2014 3:16 PM
burnsy483
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Posted by MikeT23 on 1/9/2014 2:40:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 1/9/2014 1:31:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/9/2014 1:09:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 1/9/2014 12:56:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/9/2014 12:44:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 1/9/2014 12:41:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/9/2014 12:30:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 1/9/2014 12:16:00 PM (view original):
"By refusing to acknowledge that there's virtually no difference between the two yet having stated that one is a no doubt HOFer and the other shouldn't get a vote, you're proving my point."

Nobody disagrees with your point that simply looking at career oWAR is a poor way to determine HOF candidacy. 
Would you agree that a 30% difference in WAR is insignificant, badluckjr?
Depends. A WAR difference of 1.2 and 1.6 in one season is pretty insignificant.  A career WAR difference of 50 and 65 is much more significant.
So a player who is insignificantly better for 15-20 seasons can somehow become significantly better at the end of his career?    Are you going to break it down to a week again to prove your point?
If you want me to.  I think it was a good argument.

You also understand what when you use tiny numbers, like 1, that 30% more than that really doesn't change much, right?  A WAR that's 30% higher in one year may not be too significant.  That said, take a year's WAR of 10.4, and compare it to one of 8, and you could argue that's a significant jump. A difference in WAR of 2.4 is a lot more than one of 0.4.  

It isn't.   Break down by game, by inning, by pitch.    The smaller the window, the bigger the difference.   As I asked earlier, I think pretty much everyone know a .333 hitter is better than a .286 hitter over the course of a season. 

$10 to $7 an hour is pretty significant, right?   $10 an hour seems like a small number to me.   Would you notice 30% of your salary being slashed.    20 homers to 14 homers is pretty significant don't you think?   The only 30% that doesn't seem to matter is WAR. 

It's not that hard to get from 1.2 to 1.6 in WAR.  It is harder to get from 8.0 to 10.4.  You need to step up your game a significant amount.

So the difference between 3.1 and 3.5 is insignificant, right?

For one season, pretty much, yea.
1/9/2014 3:53 PM
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