Posted by tarvolon on 4/29/2014 12:34:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bullman17 on 4/29/2014 10:59:00 AM (view original):

Posted by ajlillie on 4/28/2014 5:49:00 PM (view original):
I just went through my last three seasons at TLU and compared both my actual overall and conference records with the bullman17's predictions. Each number was spot-on or within one game. The NT seeding was a little off, but that's an effective projection formula you're using!

If it was predicting the number of wins accurately within one or so but the seeding was off, you may want to take a look at your scheduling and adjust it if the actual seed you got was worse.  If you had an easy strength of schedule you may want to toughen it up and if your strength of schedule was pretty hard, you may want to lighten it up a little.  

For my part, I notice that you generally predict my record accurately, but at least last year, my seed was significantly better than predicted. I assume that your seed prediction is based on team quality, and that I can effectively beat your seed prediction with strategic scheduling? 

Exactly.  My seed predictions are based upon ratings of each team and do not take schedule into account.  The predicted number of wins does take the schedule into account, so if you are at or near the number of wins predicted and end up with a better seed, your schedule strength is benefiting you.

A good example from last year is Hardin-Simmons.  Based upon the ratings they were one of the top five teams in Rupp D-3 hands down and they went undefeated until the final four, and yet they ended up with a five seed in the tournament.  Had to be the schedule, there is no other explanation.  If they had scheduled tougher, they probably would have gotten a one seed, even if they had lost a game or two.

Posted by ajlillie on 4/29/2014 1:32:00 PM (view original):
I was a #10 seed last season, when the prediction was at #6. Overall I'm impressed with how close it is. How do you generate the estimated numbers of wins? I see lots of iffy equations or analytics on here - I'm wondering how yours is so close.

I have a formula that gives me the odds for a game based upon the difference in ratings between two teams.  For example, if team A is rated 50 and team B is 49, the odds are somewhere around 65 percent for Team A (maybe a little lower than that -- don't remember exactly).  The program then assigns 0.65 wins to Team A and 0.35 wins to Team B for that game.  It does that for each game on the schedule and the total for all games is the predicted number of wins.

In your case, if you ended up with a ten seed but hit the number of projected wins, take a look at the SOS from last year.  There is a good chance that your schedule strength hurt you -- either by being too tough or too easy.

Time for another season of GotN writeups, your life can stop feeling like a lonely, empty shell.  You're welcome.

GotN
#7 Millsaps (0-0)(brianxavier) at #5 Johnson and Wales (0-0)(spasticity)
And we kick it off with quite a tasty matchup between two of Rupp D3's dominant teams and conferences.  The University travels to the Great Northeast in a huge season opener for these top ten teams.  brian leads the all-time series 9-4 (I thought this was a low number of games) and his Millsaps team is favored on the road by 1 point.  Should be a great one.

Also considered: Simpson at #6 Hamline, #11 Hardin-Simmons at Medgar Evers, Newbury at #15 California Tech, #23 Penn St. Altoona at Emmanuel, and #24 Oglethorpe at UMass Dartmouth

Sim blowout watch: We have several spreads in the 40's tonight but we'll kick off the season with Salem St. getting a solid 55 points as they visit #8 Ursinus.

Like always, the ITaLRbHAGotN featured game will return once the conference season starts up.  It likes to be fashionably late and make a dramatic entrance.

It looks like me and the ITaLRbHAGotN have a lot in common then, haha.

I don't think farting when you sit down for dessert is a fashionably late, dramatic entrance.

I could be wrong, you know, I am just a schlub from Jersey.

To stay on topic, I'll take Salem St. and the points!

Posted by Trentonjoe on 4/29/2014 9:53:00 PM (view original):
I don't think farting when you sit down for dessert is a fashionably late, dramatic entrance.

I could be wrong, you know, I am just a schlub from Jersey.

To stay on topic, I'll take Salem St. and the points!

I think you hit the nail on the head in that second sentence...tell snookie I said "call me", haha.

SotD: I always find it surprising when a player plays all 40 minutes in a game. Today there were 10 such players. What surprises me even more is the stamina of these players that play all 40 minutes in a game. 8 of them have stamina under 75. Now for the most surprising aspect of these 40 minute players. 5 of these played in games in which neither team played slowdown.

P.S. This is also my 100th post which could also be the SotD!

You gotta GTL everyday to make sure you're looking your best bro. If your shirt looks bad it makes the whole product look bad.

Last Night
#3 Millsaps 86   #24 Johnson and Wales 83
This one was as good as advertised and extremely close throughout.  J-Dub held a slim 3 point lead at the half and both teams battled back and forth all the way down to the wire.  They were trading the lead repeatedly the last couple minutes of the game when Millsaps got a clutch steal with ten seconds remaining and up by 1.  J-Dub quickly fouled, Millsaps made both free throws, but drama remained when the home team just missed on a tying 3ptr with one second remaining.  Visiting Millsaps escaped with the three point victory and moved up a few spots in the rankings.  J-Dub dropped down to the bottom of the rankings after the heart-breaking loss.

Also considered: #2 Hamline dominated the second half to blowout Simpson 89-48, #13 Medgar Evers was impressive at home to take care of previously ranked Hardin-Simmons 94-77, #5 California Tech pulled away from Newbury for the 70-55 win, #10 Penn St. Altoona got past Emmanuel on the road 65-49, and UMass Dartmouth used a late tip-in to force overtime and then out-lasted Oglethorpe 63-58.

Sim blowout watch: Salem St. got the cover on opening night, falling to #8 Ursinus 60-84.

GotN
#3 Millsaps (1-0)(brianxavier) at #1 Piedmont (1-0)(bunkerbuster)
I try not to pick the same team twice in a row but Millsaps is making it impossible by playing a second straight top five opponent on the road.  Our top ranked team gets a big test in this one as the USA South welcomes the University to town.  I was surprised again by this being the first meeting between these two coaches, how have they not played before?  Weird.  Anyway, the home team is favored by a slim 2 points.

Also considered: #10 Penn St. Altoona at #4 Nichols, #2 Hamline at Dominican, Wabash at #12 Greensboro, Wittenberg at #14 Chapman, Ramapo at #18 Webster, Dubuque at #20 Grove City, and Christopher Newport at #22 Lynchburg

Sim blowout watch: Easy choice tonight as George Fox is a massive 77 point home dog as they play host to #5 California Tech.

Had to consult the urban dictionary for that one, pseudo.  Nice work.

Wise words from The Situation...

To my knowledge Bunker and I have played at least once.... in Iba.

This is all by memory, so I could be wrong. But I am pretty sure his team was the victim of my first national championship in D3.

I was coaching Cabrini before I moved up to Limestone at D2.

Bunker was coaching a D3 school in Texas and we met in the finals. After than, bunkerbuster went on to win numerous titles at that same school.

For whatever reason we haven't played in Rupp until now - but I knew my team would be good this season, so I was looking to beef up the schedule and he was the obvious choice. Many times I have avoided him because I knew I had no chance!

(edit: I looked it up - sure enough in season 47 he was the coach at Texas, Dallas in Iba and we met in the finals... not sure why it says we have never played?)

I'm guessing the display of coach records against opponents is only counting games in that particular world.  That fact allows me to claim that I've beaten darnoc 273 straight times in worlds other than Rupp and hope that others are too lazy to do the research to doublecheck my claim.

I believe you Pseudo! I don't know what GTL means, though.

Congrats Carson on the 100 posts, I think I am probably somewhere around 100, lost track at some point. EDIT* - only 78, my bad.

About the SIM blowout watch, right now George Fox is ranked the 9th worst team out of the 288 I have plugged in. On that note, I plugged in 96 more teams today (8 more conferences). It's been an interesting ride using google. Sorry I am still missing all of the USA South conference and some other good teams like Whittier, but now we have Bullman and googs' teams and some other good ones that were missing. I'm hoping to have the last 8 conferences plugged in by game 5. Each workbook takes about 3 minutes to load and then one of the formulas doesn't display correctly upon opening so that takes an additional 2 minutes to correct each time. Plato is eventually going to help me with a workaround to opening the workbooks and correcting the glitchy formula each morning, so I don't have to manually do it (which would take around an hour each day to update the scores. The workbook will not autoupdate unless it's opened each day. So for now, expect the Starr Scores to be updated for game 5 and then again every 5 games after. As of right now, the 24 plugged in conferences are all up to date.

As always, please let me know if something doesn't seem to add up correctly. I encourage you all to go and take a look at Nathaniel Crowley, a dream player under tarvolon's command. My money is on him for player of the year, when the voting begins, at least for now. He might have the potential to pass the 100 mark.

http://starrengine.yolasite.com/rankings.php

EDIT* - Scratch that, I've finally got all 32 conferences plugged in for DIII Rupp, updated through game 1. I'll update again for game 5 and so forth. Here are the top 3 in each category:

1 Millsaps 70.4
2 Palm Beach Atlantic 64.8
3 Penn St. Altoona 64.4

1 University 55.9
2 N. Coast 53.2
3 Great NE 52.8

1 Nathaniel Crowley Sr. Dallas C 82 27 70 83 61 93 17 22 9 78 94 70 B- 706 A- A- C 91.3
2 Rex Futch Sr. Allegheny C 69 36 95 85 79 73 21 35 12 82 73 81 C- 741 A+ A- PF 89.9
3 Joseph Mikkelson Sr. Rivier C 74 36 98 54 69 95 31 1 29 63 63 54 B- 667 A A+ C 89.5

Just visit the link to find your team and player ranks. You might find the Starr Engine loves you more than the WIS engine. Man I am starving right now but need sleep! I used to sleep walk and still do sleep talk, wish I could sleep eat once in a while... stupid inefficient body :P

Last thing, you will all see the scores for best player, best team and best conference are on different levels. What do you guys think, good how it is, or should I try to balance it so the 3 categories are more similar (i.e. the best conferences and teams would be closer to 100 at season end, like the best player scores). I wonder if it would make for easier comprehension of the score values if I did this. Your input is greatly appreciated, always.

SotD: My team is currently leading D3 in FT%. My team has 9 players that have yet to miss a FT. (Now I have just jinxed myself  ) The most on another team that I could find was 7, which is still impressive.