Season 75, D3 Topic

Random thoughts on the big dogs so far this season.

I was trying to predict who may get to the final four. 

Outside of Menlo, I think it may be a toss up.  Menlo almost won it all last year.  But some other great coach got lucky and knocked him out.

Hiram is another very likely candidate with lots of upperclassmen.  Behind Menlo, I would say they are next best sure thing for the final 4.

Obviously N. Carolina Wesleyan is very, very strong.  But their press IQ is a little weak due to an apparent change in defensive philosophy. 

Lynchburg also looks very good, rounding out the currently ranked top 4 teams.

Ramapo is also undefeated, but I don't think they have much of a shot to make the final four.

Interestingly, I noticed that almost all the teams in the top 10 are press defenses.  Leading me to the STAT OF THE DAY!

Out of the current top 10, only 2 teams have a different defense than PRESS.

Lynchburg - man2man/press
Bowdoin - M2M

The first ranked zone defense team is Williamette, at #14 today.

That's the power of the press people.
8/27/2014 1:39 PM
We're about halfway through the conference season so if you hate your team, you're in luck since you only have to suffer through a few more games before you can do something about that terrible mess of a team.  So cheer up, you pathetic bastard.

Last Night
#4 Lynchburg 86   Bridgewater 79
The visitors were down by 3 at the half but they eventually recovered in the second half and took the lead for good about eight minutes in.  It remained close the entire way and Lynchburg only finished off the season sweep thanks to a pile of made free throws at the end.  Lynchburg and googs stayed undefeated and ranked #4 with the win while Bridgewater and diamond are now tied for second in the division with two losses and will need to battle for a conference tourney bye.

Also considered: #17 Louisiana came from behind for the road upset over #6 Emory 58-48, everyone's favorite team Wooster also got a road upset at #12 Earlham 70-60, Trinity pulled away in overtime to top #24 Dallas 68-61, #15 Vassar cruised past Hartwick 102-77, and #23 S.Vermont got past Rivier 77-67.

Sim blowout watch: Richard Stockton kept their opponents to double digits and covered against #10 Ramapo 61-93.

GotN
#14 Willamette (17-2)(bullman17) at #2 Menlo (19-0)(dgravs)
It's a huge game in the Northwest conference as two 9-0 divisional rivals meet for the first of their two games this season.  Both teams have been impressive so far and the winner here will get the early advantage in the standings.  bullman has a 4-2 lead in head-to-head but the home team is favored by 4.

Also considered: #12 Earlham at #5 Kenyon, #11 Millsaps at #6 Emory, #24 Dallas at #17 Louisiana, #3 Hiram at Wooster, and Rivier at #20 Suffolk

Sim blowout watch: Manhattanville is getting a sizable 71 points as they travel to #7 US Merchant Marines.

ITaLRbHAGotN
Greensboro (13-6)(tilldog28) at Christopher Newport (13-5)(mroylanc)
A key divisional game in the USA South east division as these two meet in part one of the home-and-home.  CNU has a one game lead in the standings over G-Boro so a home win here will extend the lead while the visitors will look to tie for the division lead.  tilldog has a big 36-7 lead in the series and the visitors are favored by 1.
8/27/2014 5:21 PM
I think four is not many points to be giving.  I am definitely taking Menlo to cover.
8/27/2014 6:09 PM
Posted by brianxavier on 8/27/2014 1:39:00 PM (view original):
Random thoughts on the big dogs so far this season.

I was trying to predict who may get to the final four. 

Outside of Menlo, I think it may be a toss up.  Menlo almost won it all last year.  But some other great coach got lucky and knocked him out.

Hiram is another very likely candidate with lots of upperclassmen.  Behind Menlo, I would say they are next best sure thing for the final 4.

Obviously N. Carolina Wesleyan is very, very strong.  But their press IQ is a little weak due to an apparent change in defensive philosophy. 

Lynchburg also looks very good, rounding out the currently ranked top 4 teams.

Ramapo is also undefeated, but I don't think they have much of a shot to make the final four.

Interestingly, I noticed that almost all the teams in the top 10 are press defenses.  Leading me to the STAT OF THE DAY!

Out of the current top 10, only 2 teams have a different defense than PRESS.

Lynchburg - man2man/press
Bowdoin - M2M

The first ranked zone defense team is Williamette, at #14 today.

That's the power of the press people.
Press does seem to dominate in Rupp D3.  It's the same in Wooden D3 and has been for years.  But, m2m has typically dominated Naismith D3.  I really think those two defenses are pretty equal with zone being far inferior in comparison.

The NT should be interesting in Rupp D3.  Menlo obviously should be the favorite, but favorites rarely seem to win in the end...except Millsaps of course! ;)  Hiram has surprised me.  I thought we would be an NT team, but I assumed the less than elite ATH/DEF (compared to Menlo) would hold us back from being one of the best.  So far I've been wrong, and I guess that just goes to show the power of fb/fcp combined with strong IQs and stamina. 
8/28/2014 12:13 PM
That was me of course.  I keep posting under my D1 account by accident...
8/28/2014 12:16 PM
pep, you really should stop posting to forums with your secret agent "007" account, kinda defeats the secret factor.  That's like Sterling Archer going around advertising himself as the world's greatest secret agent.

Last Night
#20 Willamette 66   #1 Menlo 80
Someone pay bullman his money since his bet on Menlo minus 4 is a winner.  The home team held a 3 point lead after the first half but they came out strong in the second to eventually pull away for the impressive double digit victory.  Menlo and dgravs stay perfect on the season and regained the top ranking with the win while Willamette and bullman drop a game back in the divisional race and six spots in the rankings.

Also considered: #5 Kenyon held on at home to beat #15 Earlham 54-51, #6 Emory got past #16 Millsaps 63-53, #12 Louisiana used a late bucket and some clutch defense to edge Dallas 55-53, #3 Hiram likely cheated to defeat Wooster 75-65, and #17 Suffolk went 6-6 from the line at the end to hold off Rivier 62-59.

Sim blowout watch: Manhattanville had an easy time covering against #7 US Merchant Marines 66-85.

ITaLRbHAGotN: Christopher Newport got a last second 3ptr to go but it wasn't enough as Greensboro scored the slim road victory 92-91.  As a result the two teams are tied atop the division and the rematch later in the season got that much more important.

GotN
#2 North Carolina Wesleyan (19-1)(nastynick60) at Greensboro (14-6)(tilldog28)
It's like European soccer in the featured games as Greensboro won in the ITaLRbHAGotN and got promoted to the headliner.  Fresh off forging a tie for the division lead, G-Boro welcomes undefeated-in-conference NC-Wes to town for a cross-divisional meeting.  tilldog has a 14-7 edge in the coaching series but the visitors are favored by 9.

Also considered: Rhodes at #6 Emory, Trinity at #12 Louisiana, Ohio Wesleyan at #15 Earlham, Stillman at #16 Millsaps, S.Vermont at #17 Suffolk, #20 Willamette at Chapman, and Dallas at #22 Hendrix

Sim blowout watch: Marywood is a 50 point home dog as they face #18 Babson.

ITaLRbHAGotN
Wooster (14-5)(pseudochamp) at Wittenberg (16-4)(goofybowlingguy29099)
Despite Wooster winning the earlier game between these two, the home team is currently sitting one game up in the N.Coast west division standings.  Regardless, it's pretty obvious who pretty much everyone is rooting for.  The series is tied at 18 games apiece and Fighting Scots are favored on the road by 1.
8/28/2014 5:21 PM
We're down to five undefeated teams left in the nation along with just three teams without a single win.

Last Night
#1 North Carolina Wesleyan 97   Greensboro 72
After just a 3 point lead at the start of the second half, NC-Wes kicked the offense into high gear and racked up 56 points in the half to pull away for and impressive road victory.  Greensboro couldn't keep up with the blistering pace, especially after making only 9 of 30 from 3pt land.  NC-Wes and nastynick jump up into the top ranking with the win while Greensboro and tilldog slip a game back in their division standings.

Also considered: #6 Emory took care of Rhodes at home 80-69, Trinity went on the road for the upset over #17 Louisiana 67-59, #15 Earlham got past Ohio Wesleyan 88-80, #12 Millsaps cruised past Stillman 77-57, #13 Suffolk used a huge first half to down S.Vermont 93-61, Chapman knocked Willamette from the rankings with a 58-48 upset, and #22 Dallas swapped places in the rankings with Hendrix thanks to a 63-53 road win.

Sim blowout watch: Marywood barely kept it to double digits and it was good enough for a cover against #19 Babson 61-99.

ITaLRbHAGotN: #24 Wittenberg 63, Wooster 53.  You're welcome for getting you back in the rankings.  You're welcome!

GotN
#1 North Carolina Wesleyan (20-1)(nastynick60) at #8 Palm Beach Atlantic (16-4)(osgonlz)
NC-Wes was so impressive yesterday, we're rolling with them again.  This time they're visiting their division rival for a rematch of an earlier NC-Wes home win.  PBA is two games back in the standings and they'll need this one to have any hope of trying for a conference title.  osgonlz has a slim 17-16 edge in the series but the visitors are favored by 4.

Also considered: #15 Earlham at #2 Hiram, #17 Louisiana at #22 Dallas, #12 Millsaps at Sewanee, #13 Suffolk at Rivier, and Norwich at #18 Johnson and Wales

Sim blowout watch: Salve Regina is getting 46 points at home against #25 Wentworth Tech and Waynesburg is a 44 point road dog at #20 Transylvania.

ITaLRbHAGotN
St. Lawrence (16-4)(drichar138) at Washington (20-1)(laworog)
A big cross-divisional game between Upstate divisional leaders tonight as 10-0 St. Lawrence visits 10-1 Washington.  Winner here gets a nice resume boost and conference bragging rights until a possible rematch in the conference tourney.  This is the first game between these two, the home team is favored by 1.
8/29/2014 4:17 PM
The GotN writeups are taking a hiatus for the holiday weekend, be back on Tuesday.
8/31/2014 9:37 AM
Well I intended to get back to the writeups yesterday but work has been very busy the past couple days so it hasn't happened.  Sorry about that.  I'm thinking we call it a season for the GotN writeups and I'll just skip to updating on the conference winners and night-before bubble report.  Good luck in the last couple nights of the conference season everyone.
9/3/2014 10:18 PM
No problem Pseudo.  Thanks for all the hard work you put in every season so I can have a good read :)
9/4/2014 11:47 PM
Tournament Odds: onedrive.live.com/redir

Seed Team Rating 32 16 8 4 2 1
1 Hiram 59.72 95.18% 59.97% 48.51% 29.57% 17.31% 7.06%
16 Rhodes 53.81 4.82% 0.56% 0.13% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
8 Emmanuel 58.93 85.06% 37.54% 27.87% 14.70% 7.39% 2.44%
9 Greensboro 55.22 14.94% 1.93% 0.71% 0.12% 0.02% 0.00%
4 Bowdoin 57.02 73.59% 43.72% 11.68% 3.87% 1.19% 0.21%
13 Maine Maritime Academy 54.74 26.41% 9.50% 0.99% 0.14% 0.02% 0.00%
5 Austin 56.71 75.49% 40.05% 9.57% 2.87% 0.80% 0.12%
12 Utica 54.19 24.51% 6.73% 0.54% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00%
2 Dallas 58.40 93.48% 51.55% 23.73% 10.90% 4.88% 1.38%
15 Beloit 53.07 6.52% 0.57% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
7 Willamette 57.52 42.73% 18.75% 6.94% 2.57% 0.92% 0.19%
10 Newbury 58.21 57.27% 29.13% 12.85% 5.65% 2.42% 0.64%
3 Occidental 59.56 91.14% 66.10% 42.73% 24.69% 14.04% 5.50%
14 Dickinson 54.75 8.86% 2.06% 0.35% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00%
6 UMass, Dartmouth 57.54 53.47% 17.82% 7.74% 2.88% 1.04% 0.22%
11 Wentworth Tech. 57.21 46.53% 14.03% 5.62% 1.91% 0.62% 0.12%
1 Millsaps 59.55 97.66% 75.58% 50.09% 30.81% 17.30% 6.77%
16 Calvin 52.44 2.34% 0.25% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8 Maryville 56.77 48.46% 11.38% 4.37% 1.45% 0.40% 0.06%
9 Earlham 56.91 51.54% 12.79% 5.09% 1.76% 0.51% 0.09%
4 Johnson and Wales 59.04 73.40% 60.35% 31.02% 17.44% 8.85% 3.01%
13 Ursinus 56.77 26.60% 16.22% 4.65% 1.54% 0.43% 0.07%
5 Christopher Newport 55.55 46.30% 10.10% 1.90% 0.42% 0.07% 0.01%
12 Webster 55.90 53.70% 13.33% 2.86% 0.72% 0.15% 0.02%
2 Lynchburg 59.47 91.13% 65.91% 46.44% 26.23% 14.51% 5.57%
15 Mary Washington 54.67 8.87% 2.06% 0.46% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00%
7 Ramapo 57.56 56.27% 19.34% 9.91% 3.65% 1.30% 0.28%
10 Rivier 56.98 43.73% 12.69% 5.72% 1.78% 0.53% 0.09%
3 Louisiana 57.55 80.59% 41.74% 15.92% 5.85% 2.07% 0.44%
14 St. Lawrence 54.47 19.41% 4.20% 0.55% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00%
6 Wooster 57.98 74.21% 44.71% 19.06% 7.85% 3.13% 0.77%
11 Northland 55.63 25.79% 9.35% 1.95% 0.38% 0.07% 0.01%
1 Menlo 61.84 99.31% 92.73% 77.64% 55.55% 43.97% 33.89%
16 U.S. Coast Guard 52.84 0.69% 0.11% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8 Susquehanna 56.85 60.33% 5.13% 1.87% 0.47% 0.14% 0.04%
9 Hardin-Simmons 55.87 39.67% 2.04% 0.56% 0.10% 0.02% 0.00%
4 Hendrix 57.32 71.07% 27.10% 3.72% 1.08% 0.37% 0.12%
13 Baldwin-Wallace 55.30 28.93% 5.80% 0.33% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00%
5 Whittier 58.89 90.27% 64.65% 15.79% 6.88% 3.49% 1.66%
12 William Paterson 54.25 9.73% 2.45% 0.09% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
2 Palm Beach Atlantic 56.43 85.20% 37.76% 6.75% 0.79% 0.21% 0.05%
15 Simpson 52.71 14.80% 1.71% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
7 Trinity (TX) 57.04 51.73% 31.74% 7.06% 1.07% 0.34% 0.10%
10 Vassar 56.88 48.27% 28.79% 6.04% 0.86% 0.26% 0.07%
3 Kenyon 60.85 87.87% 68.23% 59.79% 28.42% 20.04% 13.61%
14 Sewanee 56.71 12.13% 4.41% 2.21% 0.29% 0.08% 0.02%
6 Suffolk 56.49 28.02% 4.32% 2.06% 0.25% 0.07% 0.02%
11 Hamline 58.61 71.98% 23.04% 16.04% 4.19% 2.00% 0.90%
1 N. Carolina Wesleyan 57.04 95.81% 32.29% 13.97% 4.16% 0.63% 0.18%
16 Lake Erie 50.92 4.19% 0.07% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8 Wittenberg 58.99 60.34% 43.12% 27.42% 13.58% 4.05% 1.97%
9 Texas Lutheran 58.01 39.66% 24.52% 13.08% 5.15% 1.11% 0.43%
4 S. Vermont 58.49 57.35% 39.73% 21.40% 9.49% 2.42% 1.05%
13 Wisconsin, La Crosse 57.80 42.65% 26.48% 12.35% 4.59% 0.92% 0.33%
5 Babson 56.69 50.81% 17.38% 6.12% 1.63% 0.21% 0.05%
12 Stillman 56.61 49.19% 16.41% 5.65% 1.46% 0.18% 0.05%
2 Emory 58.35 92.96% 43.79% 18.99% 10.05% 2.44% 1.03%
15 Medgar Evers 53.16 7.04% 0.46% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
7 Transylvania 57.69 34.99% 16.19% 5.95% 2.75% 0.53% 0.19%
10 Chapman 59.13 65.01% 39.56% 20.33% 12.43% 3.89% 1.95%
3 U.S. Merchant Marines 59.92 87.74% 69.68% 44.92% 31.02% 12.08% 7.07%
14 Ohio Wesleyan 55.80 12.26% 4.62% 1.05% 0.29% 0.03% 0.00%
6 Bridgewater 57.20 55.75% 15.44% 5.57% 2.29% 0.37% 0.11%
11 Penn St. Altoona 56.67 44.25% 10.25% 3.16% 1.12% 0.14% 0.04%

9/9/2014 11:10 AM
Really not happy with my seeding at all this year.  My #10 RPI translates into a 7 seed in the tournament.  
9/9/2014 11:14 AM
University conference had a really strong year-great job to them for getting 9 into the tourney.  I see 8-seeded Wittenberg has a higher possibility of making the S16 than top seed in the region NCWC.  I'd love to share the optimism, but there's just been something screwy with my team all year long that I really can't put my finger on.  But we need to figure out how to get out of the first round before even thinking about anything beyond that.


9/9/2014 12:36 PM
The Midwest and South look loaded this year.  In the Midwest the top 3 seeds are stacked and then you have underseeded Willamette at 7 and always dangerous Wentworth Tech and Dickinson at 11 and 14, respectively.  In the South, the Susquehanna, Hardin-Simmons, and Vassar are the 8-10 seeds.  And I think Baldwin-Wallace is going to be a tough out as a 13-seed.   Good luck to everyone in the post-season!
9/9/2014 12:39 PM
I will be interested to see how NC Wesleyan does in the tournament because they have outperformed my rating system all year.  

Willamette is pretty much screwed.  I will be happy to make it past the first round.
9/9/2014 3:47 PM
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