That's kind of my point about ADV.

On my two longest term teams, I've saved 500m-600m on ADV.    That's given me a big advantage over those who didn't go 0 quickly.   If I have to pay, and I won't because virtually everyone with knowledge is at 0 ADV, so be it.    What I've done is on me and what I'll do next season will also be on me.   No one makes me make calls.    I do it on my own.

Either I missed it or you did an edit.

Some will, some won't.     Some will win if they do.   One pick, two picks will not be the end of the world.   You adjust.

Posted by hockey1984 on 5/10/2015 9:58:00 PM (view original):
Getting off track again,

Here is my thing with only allowing a 4 million dollar change a year per catagory. For Medical, Training, IFA, Prospect, and Coach budget, I totally agree. If you hadn't planned in the past, you only get to move a little bit. Deal with it. End of story.

My big thing is for the draft for College and High school. Lets say I have a team that is perennially getting into the playoffs either winning a weak division or taking the 6th wildcard spot with 88 to 90 wins, my current HS budget is 6 million and my college is 4. Now lets say in season XX that I drop my HS to 2 and my college to 0 to make a big splash in free agent signing and I get said free agent. Lets say my team underperforms and we end up winning between 70-75, the next season I have the 7-10th overall pick and the best scouting budget I can expect is 6 for my HS and 4 for my college. With the new 'fuzzy projections', I may as well punt the pick for the next 3 years until I can nab a guy that I have a vague idea how he will be.

Thoughts?

Isn't that the biggest argument in favor of the $4M limit? A team that's in pennant races for several seasons should be behind in the draft, having been forced to use resources on FA and retaining players. Without the limit, you could run 0/0 HS/COL while competing. Should you be able to instantly have better scouting than teams that have been less-competitive and thus have poured more resources into HS/COL while you were winning 90 games, helped by FA paid for by the $10M+ you saved by having 2/0? Being able to draft sure-fire solid players with 6/4 is a problem being fixed with this update. It would make no sense for WIS to make that welcome change and then give every team the ability to negate it.

It would also be surprising if fuzzying up prospects were done to such a degree that #7 would be a bust, even with 6/4. You might get the 20th-best player instead of the 10th, but that would be logical since you've neglected scouting for x # of seasons.

Bottom line: Dropping scouting from 6/4 to 2/0 should have consequences.

Wouldn't just making all ratings changes and predictions and projections more variable solve the 0 ADV issue without eliminating my ability to see ratings histories of my competitors' players?

Why do you need to take that away if everything else is more random anyway?

Is it because it won't be random enough? There will always just be a few patterns that are easily guessed?

I'm not sure the patterns can be varied enough, unless they're changing develop/decline patterns into the mid/late 30s of players, that we wouldn't eventually figure them out.

And, if they do that, I'm not sure what projections will show.   We know that current/projections are the same at 27.   So the only "logical" projection, if players are going to develop later in life, is to make them "peak" projections.    Even then, if we could see currents, we'd know a 32 y/o player peaked in power at 24 y/o(or whatever) so the only way to go is down.

Mike, you mentioned you are going to bump all of your teams Adv budget up 4 million next season. Do you have a planned 'sweet spot' to stop at or will this be an ongoing tinkering process to find what works?

I've usually kept IFA/HS/College between 10 and 16 if that was the market I wanted to be in.   I've always felt that 14m gave me enough info to work with(but I had currents).   There will be some tinkering, due to the removal of currents, but I'm hoping 16m will work.   

That's assuming ADV carries the value I'm speculating that it will.   If it carries the value that others seem to believe it will, I won't be moving off 0. 

I found 14 to be a good place for solid insights as well. I used to keep advanced around 14 before moving down towards 0.

Depending on what ADV actually does, it may not be enough now.

I could take my 14m in HS scouting, see an 18 y/o with 42 power and know that he's not getting to 78 like my scouting said.     Now I won't see that 42 so I might be required to go 18-20. 

Admin how about responding to the largest controversy in this thread and telling us if you changed advanced scouting to cover all projections. Should take you all of 30 seconds.

No one, except the following, really needs to know before the end of the week.

Hornsby	34	View	Yes	tony23	0	Simulating World Series
Hunter	33	View	Yes	dizzlebob	0	Simulating Regular Season Games
LOCO	30	View	Yes	drarcher	0	Eligible for rollover starting on 5/12
Munson	27	View	Yes	jefepwnzer	0	Eligible for rollover starting on 5/12
NCAA II	13	View	Yes	hopkinsheel	0	Eligible for rollover starting on 5/14
majors	32	View	Yes	drichter	1	Simulating World Series
The Big Hurt	5	--	Yes	campbell1972	1	Simulating World Series
The Sandlot	31	View	Yes	joev188	1	Simulating World Series

Could be that WifS is deciding whether to scale back/ramp up the change.   May not have even checked in today. 

I have a world that will roll soon and one that has rolled. I'd like to know the basic structure of the game before I decide to stay with those worlds as crickett13 or if I will finally create an alias.

Mays needs 5 and rolled on 5/7, Capra is at game 155.   Neither of them are rolling "soon".   I really wish you guys wouldn't make dishonest arguments that can be checked.

But, just to be safe, go ahead and create your alias that you'll "need" in June.

Anyway, I thought you were going to dump your current worlds and start in new ones.    Did that change?

True.  But this was the last "3 week notice" update.    Pretty big stuff in there.  

Fielding improvements:

• Revamped +/- system. Top notch fielder at a position (across HBD, not just world) should see about 30 plus (+) plays over the course of a season assuming the average number of opportunities. Terrible fielder at a position should see about 30 poor (-) plays. This is also level independent, so a great SS in Lo A should see 30 plus plays and a terrible SS in Hi A should see 30 poor plays.
• Added good and bad fielder chances for fielding bunts (sac or for hit)
• Reduced likelihood of pickoffs/balks when score differential is significant
• Reduced likelihood of catcher pickoff when 9th or later and 2 out
• Improved PH logic to go for power when 2 out, nobody on and tie game or down by one
• It will no longer hold runners on if 2 out in 9th or later of game with big lead
• Slightly adjusted out/safe logic for throws to base when runner trying to advance an extra base on a non-force. Decrease in outs %.

Hitting improvements:

• Reduced upper end of home run frequency. The steroid era is over.
• Adjusted distribution of bunts (more to catcher and pitcher)
• Adjusted sac bunt success rate when corners or if not in
• Slightly increased foul ball out distribution
• Decreased chance of pitcher arguing balls at plate while batting.

Pinch hitting logic improvements:

• Improved PH logic to go for power when 2 out, nobody on and tie game or down by one
• Improvement to logic for PH for a pitcher. If tied and 9th or later, no available pitchers on bench, let the pitcher hit for himself if he has pitches to give and nobody in scoring position or two out.
• Improvement to logic for PH for a pitcher. If tied and 9th or later, nobody on, pitcher has enough pitches to get through another inning and there's not another pitcher in the same or better role, let him hit for himself. Think of situation where 1 out, bases empty, Setup A at plate and no other closers or setup pitchers in pen. Let him hit, rather than risk having to bring in a mopup or long reliever.
• Minor adjustment to logic for deciding to yank a pitcher for a pinch-hitter based on game situation.
• Improved logic so pitcher will hit for himself during blowout.
• Don't PH for position player if he's last pos player available and pitcher due up that inning

Pitching Logic improvements:

• If no hitter late, don't swap out starting catcher for rest or def rep
• If 2 out, nobody on and mopup or long reliever on mound with a significant lead (such as after surrendering a homer), the manager will stick with the reliever long so as not to waste a relief pitcher.
• Improvement to logic for yanking mopup after the score has narrowed.
• When closer in game at start of inning (after he pitched in previous inning), manager will now rely on max pitch count instead of target pitch count when save situation is still in effect.
• Manager will no longer bring in specialist to face a pitcher at the plate
• Improved logic for issuing IBB late in game when OBP more important than OPS.

Roster / Substitution improvements:

• Improvement to PH/PR sub logic. If nobody can play position on bench (def rep/rest hierarchy) and nobody can play based on spectrum, leave the incumbent in rather than waste another player (except for catcher/non-catcher situation). Improved logic so there will be less chance of seeing closers, setup men, specialists play the field in dire situations.

Two important notes related to the update:

1. We had to omit the feature regarding the Rule 5 draft due to an unsolvable scenario and because it added an additional layer of complexity to an already complicated process.
2. If you are currently in any of the following worlds: Second City, Evangeline Leagu, or Wailing Onions the auto DFA'ing of players if you are over the ML roster limit of 25 will NOT affect you this season. It will, however, take affect next season.

So, if ADV stays the same, it's not a BIG update at all.    It hardly moves the needle.