Posted by arcticlegend on 5/27/2015 11:18:00 AM (view original):
Without current ratings showing, the importance of draft And intl scouting has gone up, not down. So why are people thinking of zeroing out those budgets if they weren't doing so before?
That seems to me to be the exact opposite of common sense.
I'd argue the exact opposite. The draft is now closer to a lottery because we have less control over what we're getting.
I've got two hitters on my draft board in Clemens* right now:
19 year old - 81/74/43/73/88 projections
22 year old - 38/74/81/87/91 projections
If I were looking at two veterans with those exact ratings, they're pretty similar in overall offensive quality, even if how they provide it is a bit different. You could make a case for either being ranked ahead of the other. So in a situation like this, how do I decide which to take? Why, current ratings, of course. I look at the 22 year old and go "well crap, his splits are only in the low 50s, he's got no shot of hitting those 80+ split projections" and rank the 19 year old higher. Or I see that his splits are actually in the low 70s, well that's a much safer bet to hit his projections at that age. Maybe the 19 year old has a current eye in the 40s, that 88 eye is pretty crucial to his offensive output, if he's not going to even hit 80 in actuality then that makes him a lot less valuable.
Without current ratings I pretty much have to just go with the 19 year old on the merit that the 22 year old has a better chance of his projections being unrealistically high. God forbid if both were the same age.
No current ratings removes so much of the control we have over who we draft, and if I'm going to be left in a scenario where I'm just taking what appears to be the best lottery ticket out of a bunch of other lottery tickets where I don't actually know if any of them are better than the others, I'm much more inclined just to shy away from the draft altogether. None of this even touches on the plans to make projections "fuzzier" (it would be good to even know what that means), which potentially just adds to the RNG aspect of the whole thing.
Is it worth changing the draft to make it harder for low budgeted owners to find good players in the end of the first round? Absolutely, but there are other ways to do it, and this actually
harms people who invest in draft scouting. It's robbing Peter to pay Paul.