Getting it started late. 

Game 1 the game of the night was the battle for Florida between North (ranked #3, Peach Belt rep) and West (ranked #2, Heartland rep). NFla pulled off the upset, starting off the season playing great ball. 

The GotN (game of the night) for game 2 is #4 Lander traveling to San Antonio to take on #2 Incarnate Word in what might be their first rematch since the season 69 title game. Lander is 0-7 all time vs IW, and getbedarded is an intimidating 0-4 against davefilby. Can the spell be broken on the IW court?

Incarnate wins 58-51. The spell continues!

Great Lakes Valley preview:

Bellarmine returns 9 players from last season's 29-2 team

Mercyhurst is rebuilding after losing 4 players from a 19-10 team

Missourii-St Louis will likely take a step back this season. They were 20-10 last year but have 7 new players

Northern Kentucky is the team to watch in the GLV. They return every player from a 19-12 season

Southern Indiana has had only 2 winning seasons in jbrickey's 10 seasons there. But  they return every player from a 10-18, RPI 187 team

Wisconsin-Parkside had an uncharacteristic 14-14 record in season '79. They return 10 players and should be much better.

N10 Conference Outlook:

Le Moyne starts the season as the strongest team returning 10 players from a 21-9 (2nd Round NT) team last year. They've added two JR bodies in support.

Merrimack will return 9 players from a 22-8 (1st Round NT) team last year. They have a rough 5 game stretch in one of the invitationals early in the schedule. By the time conference play starts they should be once again actively chasing Le Moyne down for a shot at the Southern Conference title and yet another 20+W season and NT selection.

S. Connecticut St. appears to continue it's trend of asking the question "Is this coach active or is not"? No post season here but there are a handful of decent players in it's top 5.

Bentley will have it's work cut out to return to a 3rd consecutive NT Elite 8 appearance after last years 32-1 season. By seasons end, we should see their characteristic high ATH and DEF minded team which can always hope to wriggle it's way deep into the NT. 

Bryant  returns 10 players from a 16-10 record a season ago. Their roster and schedule suggests a possible 20W  season as they look to make a return to the post season tournament scene. This early in the season it appears Bryant has a shot at the NT but will need to mostly run the table in non conference and pick off a game or two from the other 3 teams in conference play or conference tourney.

The predictions are: Bentley (21-5) North Div. champ, Le Moyne (22-4) South Div. champ, Merrimack (21-5), Bryant (20-6)  

CT champs: Le Moyne

NT births: Le Moyne, Bentley, Merrimack

PI births: Bryant
 

Posted by greenhawks on 7/2/2015 4:38:00 AM (view original):
Incarnate wins 58-51. The spell continues!

I feel fortunate to get another victory against a coach of your caliber. Greenhawks absolutely owns me, perhaps he can sit on your bench next time we meet.

CVAC Preview

CVAC EAST

Erksine is the top team in the conference, returning 5 seniors. With  new coach bahul who has had solid DIII success, they will probably be the favorites in the conference. Joseph Brennan might be one of the best guards in DII

Coker has some solid talent , especially in the front court with Michael Reger and James Hunt

Belmont Abbey has some solid depth, strong defense and a lot of tweener jack-of-all-trades players that can do a lot of good things, but they will struggle against press teams due to not having very good passing.

Lees-Mcrae will have to rely heavily on Murillo's shooting. A few of their other starters play good defense. Otherwise, they will struggle, as they have a relatively young team. 2nd year coach Hurkman has some work to do to have them return to the PIT, which is probably a likely best-case scenario for them.

Anderson starts 5 seniors, which is good. However, they are Anderson, which means they never win anything, and their Seniors aren't great at basketball.

Barton has 9 underclassmen. They are coached by a robot. They have minimal talent. So things basically suck for them.

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CVAC WEST

While the strength of the conference has historically been in the west, it doesn't seem that way this season.

Limestone has rebounding, inside, and outside shooters,  and little to no passing. They will need to play isoball and do a great job of rebounding their misses. 2nd year coach Guzzoid is an unknown, but did well his first season in D1.

Longwood has 10 underclassmen.  Their 2 seniors are preseason all-americans, though. The inside-out combination of Lauderdale and Wilson will  have to  carry the team. Expect a lot of slowdown as they will need their starters in the game as long as possible. Also, they're playing a doubleheader tonight in St. Louis Missouri and Kingsville, TX. That's right. I'm sure their kids  will adapt well to the adversity. Or they will just die of exhaustion.

Queens can't pass or shoot from the outside,but they can run,jump, and defend very well. They will need to keep the game as  ugly as possible and rely on fast breaks, rebounds,  steals, and overall chaos. Muskies is a veteran coach and he'll have them playing at their best.

Pfieffer is coached by a robot for the first time  in 50 seasons. So sad. Their talent is average  and coach Sim AI will have everyone jacking up 3 pointers as usual, whether they  can shoot or not.

St. Andrews has 8 underclassmen. Their 4 seniors are mostly average players. They will be better once the youngins grow up a bit. 

Mt. Olive has been beaten up in the CVAC West for decades. The perennial  doormats most likely still suck.

Predictions.

East    Erksine 15-1, Coker 12-4, Bel Abbey 10-6, Lees Mcrae 9-7, Anderson 5-11, Barton 2-14

West   Limestone 10-6, Longwood 10-6, Queens 9-7, Pfieffer 6-10,  St. Andrews 6-10, Mt. Olive 2-14

Tourney Seeds

NT - (4)  Erksine #2 seed,  Coker #7 seed,  Bel Abbey #9 seed,  Limestone #10 seed
PIT -   Longwood #3 seed, Queens #5 seed, Lees Mcrae  #8 seed.

Posted by davefilby on 7/2/2015 8:26:00 AM (view original):

Posted by greenhawks on 7/2/2015 4:38:00 AM (view original):
Incarnate wins 58-51. The spell continues!

I feel fortunate to get another victory against a coach of your caliber. Greenhawks absolutely owns me, perhaps he can sit on your bench next time we meet.

I might have to try to get some tips from Greenhawks. Alternatively, I could realize the game is a home game and not make my team fly back and forth to San Antonio the day before the game...that must be why I lost! Haha

Unrelated - Loving these prediction posts. Will try to get one up for the Peach soon.

Yea always a big fan of the write ups. Nice job fellas.

Heartland Preview

HEARTLAND EAST

Drury starts 4 seniors and a junior, so experience is certainly on their side. The early schedule is a bit light, as they like many teams attempt to rack up wins before the brutal gauntlet of conference play. Their athleticism and defense will make them a threat in any game. They make a living at the free throw line; the question will be if they can find enough offense when the refs have swallowed their whistles. SF Alan Thorsen is as versatile a player as you’ll find in D-II.

Lincoln is another team built on athleticism and defense. They start 5 seniors and appear to have a bit more offensive balance than Drury. Their questions will be what happens when the press defense exhausts the starting 5 and they don’t appear to pass the ball particularly well. PF Larry Dobson always delivers buckets from the post.

Oklahoma Panhandle State is all about valuing the ball. They force turnovers, take call of the ball themselves, and more than half of their buckets come after an assist. SF Walter Shaw is the star here, leading the team in scoring in less than 20 minutes a game. Coach winmag is getting the most out this team so far, but it might get a bit tougher once the strength of schedule steps up.

Rockhurst is your classic deep press team. Starting 4 juniors, they are a likely a year away from their peak. They are already the fastest team in D-II and they handle the ball very well. Their potential weakness is the big man skills of rebounding and shot-blocking. Their brand of ball should minimize these weaknesses, but a team with some post presence that takes care of the ball might present problems. Keep an eye on Rockhurst the next couple seasons as their players mature (only 2 seniors on this year’s team).

St Edwards has athleticism, speed, defense, and they take care of the ball. 8 upperclassmen see extensive playing time. They could beat anybody on any given night. There’s a lot to like here, but a lack of front-court depth might result in some games where St Edwards can’t keep their opponents off the glass.

Perennial Power St Mary’s is another team that can beat anybody. They are good at almost everything. Maybe they are a little lighter on scoring options than a typical St Mary’s team, but that’s a high bar. PG Kevin Galdemez is the secret sauce for mduncanhogs, distributing to a trio of scorers. He is as fine a pure PG as you’ll see in D-II.

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HEARTLAND WEST

Incarnate Word isn’t particularly good defensively but they’ve got skilled shooters. C John Hill does provide a presence in the middle of the zone and SG Harry Curl is a talented scorer. They do crash the boards well for a zone team. Only two seniors on this team, they may be a year away from their peak. Junior SF Jerry Williams is improving by leaps and bounds. His improvement may dictate how far this team goes in the post-season.

Montevallo is an interesting team. They’ve built the zone around rebounding & shot-blocking and get their points from the guards and SF. They crash the boards and over 75% of their buckets are the result of a good pass. They are the Liam Neeson of the Heartland, as they bring to the court a very particular set of skills. Victor Beck provides scoring punch and lockdown D at the 3. Marc Heard and Marcus Kroon will be a backcourt nightmare with their ability to score, handle, and distribute. Watch out for these guys, they are good.

Do not sleep on N Alabama. They carry two walk-ons, so don’t be fooled by their team ratings. Their zone relies on their 4 upperclassmen and they will defend their butt off. The quartet of Rubin, Barry, Olkowski, and Declue are good but will they get enough help from the rest of the team? Will they need it? Defensively good enough to win any game.

Coach kelby03 has positioned Valdosta St for a run at a national title this season. This press team is deep and good at most everything, as you’d expect from a team with 11 upperclassmen. They have offensive balance and share the ball extremely well. Maybe a few more post scoring options would be nice, but this team will attack you in waves and likely go far in the post-season.

W Alabama has athletic defenders and a trio of talented guards. Will they have enough post scoring after George Kimberling to keep teams from crowding the perimeter? 5 freshmen on this team, hopefully coach bowen_brian can keep them from getting exposed. All the zone teams in this division play into his hands.

W Florida is as talented as any team in D-II. Hugh Rogers and Alfred Mathews are absolute nightmare matchups offensively. Darren Valles will lock you up on defense. They have 8 upperclassmen. I am not happy having them (or any of these teams) in my division.

Predictions: Predictions? Seriously?!?! Conference is 32-4 so far. Any of these teams could beat any other team. I’ll say we all go 8-8 and put 12 teams into the NT.

Thanks for the write up everyone, love reading these as well. If I can match Liam Neeson's Oscar with a COY I'll be pretty happy.

We're definitely going to head into Heartland play with the weakest SOS and that's by design. We'll need every non-con win we can get.

Who's bringing us the Peach Belt preview???

Alright alright here it is! The much anticipated Peach Belt review. 

General Outlook - The Peach should be down from last year in terms of top end depth, I would not expect a repeat of last year's NT. There are however several squads who return some great teams, so seeing at least 1 rep in the Final Four would not be surprising. Interestingly, the top 3 teams in D2 at ATH and DEF (individually) all reside in the Peach. And they're the same 3 teams. The strength of the conference has traditionally laid in the South, and, in terms of top-end talent, that looks to continue this season. 

In order of current standings (after game 4) - 

PB North 

Armstrong Atlantic - Old mainstay Kucewicz is back for another run, and he has a team to make some noise. Led by guards Alex Creager (last year's leading scorer) and Brian Cone (athletic, defensive, ball distributing PG), AASU should be very tough. They start 3 SR and 2 JR (one is a SR who will get a SR/5). A lot of athleticism and speed in the backcourt, they could get bullied by a team with athletic, rebounding bigs. They have one elite shooter and one elite post option, but not a lot of great scoring options past that. They are tough on D.

Clayton St - Our first of the ath/def monsters, Clayton should be poised to make some noise this year. Missing out on the NT last year after an upset in the first round of the PB tournament (putting them under .500 going into tournament play), they should be improved this year. Redshirt SR Michael Reid can get buckets on anyone, and Joseph Pero will have to come up big for them. Unfortunately, Pero tore his rotator cuff in game one. With their ATH/DEF, Clayton should be in every game. A threat to any team in the country. 

Francis Marion - Everybodies sleeper last year (NT title game appearance!?), coach skinnycat has this team rebuilding. They signed some very interesting players, a lot of talent a the guard spots. Kevin Foster will hit a lot of threes, Jack Smalls will defend like hell and take it to the rack, and Merrill Warren should create opportunities in the low post. Balanced team that plays tough zone D, even with the influx of freshmen. Due to inexperience, they won't repeat last  year's success but they should still be plenty tough. 

Columbus State - Coach blub has been snakebitten in recruiting recently, and it shows with this Columbus class. Typically one of the best teams in the North, Columbus has had some subpar classes, which, combined with Fran Mar and Clayton's rise will likely make this a tough season for the Cougars. 

Augusta St - After signing the #1 class in the country, the captain is hoping to make a tournament run. The class was a large mixture of JUCOs and transfers, so it will be interesting to see him make the pieces fit. 5 SR and 4 JR should make this team tough, but the IQ isn't where you would expect for such an upperclassman laden team. Will look to pound the ball inside on offense and draw fouls. Can be exposed rebounding the ball. Not sure if they will (or should) take a 3 pointer this season. 

Georgia College - The only press team in the Peach, coach pepsi has them poised to return to form. Strong ATH/DEF team, but with a lot of youngsters. The youth could bite Georgia, as the press generally requires a lot of depth. Should improve considerably over the course of the season due to youth though. I expect them to be positioned on the NT/PIT bubble by the end of the season. 

PB SOUTH


North Florida - Teamvip has his best NFla team yet, and they're poised to make a run. Top 3 (in D2) at ATH and DEF, NFla should dominate defensively. Returning everyone except their starting PF sounds terrifying, but they were also redshirting their highest rated player last season (Earl Bahena). Conveniently a PF, the return of Earl plus the maturation of everyone else should make NFla better than last year's squad. Clyde Anderson and Earl Bahena give teamvip two damn fine post options. On the perimeter they have two guys (Donald Taylor, Daniel Cleary) capable of making 3s to keep teams honest. I'd expect NFla to feed Donald Taylor (SG, 70 LP 91 PER) all year. Their weakspots are on the boards and playing from behind. Without great 3 pt threats, they will struggle to overcome deficits. With great ATH/DEF and great FT shooting at the guard spots, I don't expect NFla will blow any games with a late lead this year. 

Lander - One of last year's Final Four participants (losing to Fran Mar!), Lander is poised for another run. They lost their starting PF (who was 1st team AA as jr, 3rd team AA as sr), and that will be a large hole to fill. Hopefully the development of the other guys will make up for the loss of Ryan Baldwin. Lander is the last of the ATH/DEF monsters, ranking top-3 in all D2 at both. Should defend like hell, and have just enough scoring options to get buckets. Juan "on Juan" Sanchez is back for another go at the basket, and he should draw lots of fouls. The rest of the scoring is TBD, but with one elite shooter off the bench the should be average to above-average offensively. One thing holding Lander back this year are freshman promises, so expect them to underperform heading into the NT. An underseeded, but very dangerous Lander team is eagerly awaiting the NT this year. 

USC Upstate - Like Clayton, USC Upstate missed out on the NT last year due to winning percentage. They were also upset in the first round of the PB tourney. They responded by winning the PIT. With only two SR and a boatload of FR (5), this is a re-building year for Upstate. Still tough ATH/DEF (59/59), they certainly won't be a pushover. Besides Ryan David and Ralph Kang, I'm not sure anyone on the team knows the purpose of playing offense. They will take their lumps this year, but with some interesting recruits should be on the rise again soon. 

USC Aiken - Historical punching bag of the PB South, only 1 SR. Doubt they win a game in conference play. But hey, a great opportunity for a new coach...lots of postseason money, low expectations....eh? eh? No takers?? They won't matter this year. 

UNC Pembroke - Another one of the two openings in the Peach, coach Simmy could pull of an upset or two during conf play. With 4 SR and 3 JR, Pembroke might catch someone sleeping. This is the best available job in the Peach, far away from other PB schools. The only drawback is that it is right in the heart of CVAC country. 

Kennesaw St - The 3rd Final Four participant last year, Kennesaw is rebuilding with 4 new freshmen and a JR transfer from Ohio State (yuck) University. Tough ATH/DEF (61/60), they should play solid D and have a chance in every game. Doubtful there is any high volume, high efficiency scorers on the team this year, so they will have to defend. Starting 3 SR, 1 JR and 1 SO so they should stick with teams until the bench comes in. With zero perimeter threats, I expect coach Julius to pound the ball inside, draw fouls and make games ugly. Not going to be fun playing these guys. 

North - AASU, Clayton, Fran Mar, Georgia, Augusta, Columbus

South - NFla, Lander, Kennesaw, Upstate, Pembroke, Aiken

NT - AASU, Clayton, Fran Mar, NFla, Lander

PIT - Georgia, Kennesaw

POY - Juan "on Juan" Sanchez (Lander)
FOY- Bradley (Fran Mar)
DPOY - Anderson (NFla)
COY - Wildblue (Clayton)

Strong start to the seasonal thread this year. Wow. Great job.

I'm 0-3 against the Heartland. All 3 games at home. And closest I came to beating one was 8-point loss to Valdosta St. That may be the strongest conference I've seen.

#2 Valdosta St taking on #3 Lander for the Yarnell title tonight. It should be a good one.

 

In the villainous, upstart Northern Sun, look for 4 teams to represent in The NT and bust your fictional simulated office’s Iba D2 bracket. Here’ a breakdown of how the teams look heading into conference play.

Northern Sun East

Minnesota- Duluth: yungs has a squad with 4 juniors and 4 seniors coming off an NT appearance. UMD has won the East 6 out of the last 7 years, coinciding with how long yungs has been at the helm of the Bulldogs. This year’s squad, while running man, has been using a balanced approach offensively. The top two scorers thus far are post players, yet 3pt specialists account for nearly a 3rd of their shots. Look for UMD to gain consistency this season by winning the East again and returning to the NT. The challenge will be how far UMD wil be able to advance against elite teams.

Others: Bemidji St. (sim) has provided a challenge the last couple of seasons going 13-3 in conference play both years, but they do not have the team they recently have had. If any sim has a remote chance to make UMD sweat the east at all, it is Northern St (sim) and their superior BH and passing in the flex system. Like Bemidji St., it looks like they will be good a couple of seasons, as the team only has 3 seniors. Most of all, the conference needs human coaches to try to challenge yungs in the East.

Northern Sun West

Wayne St (NE): jtreeves72 is the manager emeritus of the Northern Sun, 5th all-time in Iba D2 victories & winner of the last 6 CT. Not only that, he has won the last 20 regular season West div titles and has made the NT 36 of the last 43 seasons (forgive me if I lose count). This year’s Wayne St. is led by a strong upperclassmen defensive presence and strong post play. While it seems like a virtual certainty we will see the Wildcats in the NT this season, the suddenly competitive West has put jt’s 20 year hold on the West in question. After years of dominance, when asked about the possibility of finishing 4th in the overall conference, jt wouldn’t really comment but did say that he was aware of the developing situation and it just feels awful…or something like that.

Nebraska –Kearney: metsfan215 is in his 3rd season as coach of the Lopers, barely missed the NT last season but put his team in the PIT and won 20 in the second year of a rebuild. Winner of the NT with Kansas back in season 41, metsfan has quickly built UNK into a contender with the expectation of reaching the NT this season, with a chance at making a deep run. The ’80 team has 6 seniors and is surprisingly balanced for a team running the Triangle. The strength, though, it seems is having so many strong scoring options, with 5 individual players rated 80 or higher at either LP or PE. Having already beaten a top 25 team this season, other Northern Sun coaches have loudly proclaimed metsfan’s team would be sneaking up on no one, no matter the result.

New Mexico Highlands: Also, in his 3rd season, long_ge has the Cowboys running hard with high expectations. Playing high tempo FB/FCP ball, NMHU got enough key wins last season to make an NT appearance. While last year’s team was young and had no seniors, this year the team has matured and has no freshmen. Early hype has NMHU ranked in the top 10, but this school has never had a team finished ranked and has not won an NT game in nearly 60 seasons. They key stat to watch for the Cowboys this year will be free throws. Expect FT made to exceed opponents FT attempted, as NMHU runs an uptempo brand of ball with the highest rated stamina in D2, possibly higher than any D1 school by season's end.

I'm loving this thread - it used to be 10 pages long in the stronger seasons of DII Iba (which seems like years ago)

Any predictions Iba-wide for top DII teams? Could you  just pick anyone in the Heartland?