Posted by pbsilver11 on 12/31/2015 2:19:00 PM (view original):
Really? You mean when I spend $20 million on scouting, draft a 84 rated pitcher who shows splits at 84/86, then the pitcher signs and is actually a 75 rated pitcher with splits 73/68. That was my fault for not analyzing properly? How do,you analyze with bad information provided? Garbage in, garbage out.

You're also neglecting to acknowledge the flip side of your argument, the fact that prospects may actually have a higher ceiling than their $20m draft scouting may indicate.

In one of my first drafts after the update in question, a pitcher who probably would have been a top 5 draftee under the previous system fell to me with the 20th pick.  I'm sure that I'm not the only owner that's happened to since the update.

In the end, it all evens out.  Your job is to find a way to take advantage of the new system better than your fellow owners.

I really think that's the root of the "problem".    Those of us picking in the 20s are saying "Yeah, I got a top 10 guy" while those picking in the top 5 are saying "****, I got a SP4."      I know, on the rare occasion that I get a top 10 pick, I want a future HOFer.   It's just no longer guaranteed that it will happen.

There's that too.   I know I'd be a lot more disappointed at 8th than 28th if I didn't get what I thought I was getting. 

Posted by bripat42 on 12/31/2015 3:01:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 12/31/2015 2:49:00 PM (view original):
I really think that's the root of the "problem".    Those of us picking in the 20s are saying "Yeah, I got a top 10 guy" while those picking in the top 5 are saying "****, I got a SP4."      I know, on the rare occasion that I get a top 10 pick, I want a future HOFer.   It's just no longer guaranteed that it will happen.

And players are more likely to be drafted by owners whose scouts project them to be better. For example, if your scouts project Player X to be a future Hall of Famer and my scouts project him to be an SP4, the truth likely is somewhere in the middle. If you draft him, you'll be disappointed he's not a Hall of Famer. If I draft him, I'll be happy he's better than an SP4. And since your scouts value him more, you're more likely to rank him higher, which means you're more likely to draft him than I am. Which means top players frequently will be overvalued by the owners who actually draft them.

Very good point bripat. Very good point.

What I've been doing - since I am still new - is rating my players based on the scouting I have (regardless of need - you should really just draft the best players available) and then making sure they 1) play a lot, 2) have good coaching, 3) start at the proper level, and 3) get promoted consistently.

And thats it. Eff projections. 4 developmental seasons is over a year away, so who cares what the sim projects right now?

Posted by sjpoker on 12/31/2015 3:55:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bripat42 on 12/31/2015 3:01:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 12/31/2015 2:49:00 PM (view original):
I really think that's the root of the "problem".    Those of us picking in the 20s are saying "Yeah, I got a top 10 guy" while those picking in the top 5 are saying "****, I got a SP4."      I know, on the rare occasion that I get a top 10 pick, I want a future HOFer.   It's just no longer guaranteed that it will happen.

And players are more likely to be drafted by owners whose scouts project them to be better. For example, if your scouts project Player X to be a future Hall of Famer and my scouts project him to be an SP4, the truth likely is somewhere in the middle. If you draft him, you'll be disappointed he's not a Hall of Famer. If I draft him, I'll be happy he's better than an SP4. And since your scouts value him more, you're more likely to rank him higher, which means you're more likely to draft him than I am. Which means top players frequently will be overvalued by the owners who actually draft them.

Very good point bripat. Very good point.

What I've been doing - since I am still new - is rating my players based on the scouting I have (regardless of need - you should really just draft the best players available) and then making sure they 1) play a lot, 2) have good coaching, 3) start at the proper level, and 3) get promoted consistently.

And thats it. Eff projections. 4 developmental seasons is over a year away, so who cares what the sim projects right now?

Exactly.  Projections are worthless once a player has been drafted.  It's all about (really, ONLY about) development from that point forward.

Everyone keeps looking at the new scouting negitivity. These things are all what you make of them and what you can do with it.

If you take the extra time to rank your players, it's possible to rebuild or 'reload' your prospects in just one draft.

Luck helps too but it's all about probability and ststistical analysis. If, with your 5th overall pick you get an SP4, that is still a big league player. Good owners will start filling out their entire draft board and getting guys they ranked in their top 15 in the 5th and 6th round. Are they all going to hit? Of course not. But if you have 3 or 4 of your first 6 picks to make it to the bigs. You are doing pretty well.

The past draft I got a powerhouse 1B who could play in the big right now, a defensive catcher that can hit for average, an SP3-5 and a good CF. I know they aren't all going to be all stars but knowing that my suplamental picks won't just be bench warmers is a pretty cool feeling.

Drafted in one of my worlds on Christmas morning.  Because it's my first season in that world, I have 14 mil College scouting and 6 mil HS.  Threw out all the HS prospects, which was fine, because I never saw the first five players taken in the draft.  The top College player I saw, an SP, went 6th.

With the 18th pick, I got #2 on my board, THE best prospective hitter I saw.  He's a DH, possibly a C someday, but I play in the AL in that world so it's all good.  His currents turn out to be AA, perhaps AAA ready at age 20.

Every other draft I've ever taken part in, the best hitter goes in the top ten.  Under the old draft system where we could see Currents, NO WAY that player drops to the 18 spot.

(Assuming no Diamond in the Rough (DitR) and proper development.....)

Under the old system, almost every player taken in the first round of the draft made it to the majors.  Not all were HOF or AS quality but they played some role in the majors.  Didn't really matter how much one spent on scouting although the more you spent the more likely it was you got a better player.  A few players taken in the 2nd-3rd rounds would make the majors but no HOF or AS quality.  On the flip side, very rarely did a player taken after the 3rd round make it to the majors.  This did not reflect real life MLB at all which is why WIS finally put some resources into changing it.

Under the new system, in the first round you will have HOF players, AS players, other players who make the majors and a few who do not make the majors.  As before, the more you spend the more likely it will be to get a better player but no guarantee anymore.  This also means a few more players from rounds 2-3 and even lower will make it to the majors.  This more accurately reflects real life MLB.  Since 2000, there are dozens of examples where the 1st round draft pick of a real life MLB team did not turn out to be as good as they projected him to be.  It sucks when it happens to your team but that is how life works sometimes.  Even though projections are not as accurate as they were under the old system, the owner who spends more money will have more accurate projections than the owner who spends less (and will also see more players than the owner who spends less).

Now that we are a few months removed from the update taking effect, how are HBD owners reacting to the new system???  We are in spring training games in world Bo Jackson.  What was seen in the pre-season was this:  Spending on Coll-HS-IFA scouting is down with spending on free agents way up.  Just 1 world but I'm guessing that will be a likely trend for all of HBD.     

You'd be wrong.   College/HS scouting has increased/remained the same in Coop, MG and Mantle over the last three seasons.

What I like: the negative effect on tankers and tanking, and the more realistic and arbitrary results (that you mentioned).
What I don't like: I feel like I there is nothing I can do with my draft board. So many ratings are all over the place it just seems like it makes more sense to leave it the way it is and hope for the best. Maybe that's what some real pro teams do,

Posted by hypnotoad on 1/4/2016 7:08:00 AM (view original):
What I like: the negative effect on tankers and tanking, and the more realistic and arbitrary results (that you mentioned).
What I don't like: I feel like I there is nothing I can do with my draft board. So many ratings are all over the place it just seems like it makes more sense to leave it the way it is and hope for the best. Maybe that's what some real pro teams do,

I'm definitely spending less time on the draft under the new system than I used to.

I used to have what was essentially a three step process in doing my ranking of draft prospects, with the third step being a "fine tuning" step where I was making adjustments based on current ratings.  That was probably around 50% of the time that I spent on the draft.  Now that we don't have current ratings to look at, that third step has been eliminated.

I probably spend more.   Now that I know I can get a good player at pick 148, I want to increase the odds of getting him.

Yep.  One of my worlds is in ST right now and I have the 21st pick.  With my team not looking like a surefire contender, I held onto that pick rather than go after a Type A, because recent experience tells me that pick may now yield a potentially better player than it used to.

Posted by MikeT23 on 1/4/2016 7:59:00 AM (view original):
I probably spend more.   Now that I know I can get a good player at pick 148, I want to increase the odds of getting him.

This is my mindset as well.  It's hard to tell what the effect is going to be, but what I look for most is 'outliers' with respect to a prospect's overall numbers.  My  hunch is that the more money you spend, the fewer 'outliers' there are and the easier it might be to recognize them.

That seemed to work in a couple of drafts - it appears anyway.  It also appears to me that I will have to balance my budgets more.  There is less incentive to gamble on IFA's and more in getting decent players in FA.

All in all though I love the uncertainty.

Same. I salivate when I hear more owners are spending more on FA and less on the draft. Crank my scouting up to $20 and a bit more fine tuning and I'll be picking ML players into the 5th round.