on a random note (well, not random, i just want to elaborate on this), i may be wrong about the speed thing. one of the co-coaches i coach with, who is a really good game planner, and successful with the press, also disagrees with me on the speed thing. tons of people do. also, i actually do think speed helps beat the press, more than it helps beat other offenses - i just think it is a relatively small effect, and that it is overstated and misunderstood in the minds of many coaches who play press.
generally speaking, my experience with the game in general, tells me that defense is based on aggregates, not individual ratings. really, that is true for the entire game. when players and teams are compared, the game is comparing their ability in some area, not individual ratings. that would be far more complex and nuanced, and for what gain? who is to say a player who has a masterful defensive mind and great technique, can't compensate for being slower? i don't believe this only based on theoretical reasons, but because of observation. this is a big part of why people hear me trying to get folks to talk about abilities, not ratings. abilities are really what matter, having great per if you don't have the spd/bh to back it up, its just not really worth anything, at the high levels of game play.
i think speed works the same way. speed is a key factor in creating steals, for press defenders - although not like it used to be. but, its still just a rating as part of an aggregate, an ability. i don't think stewdog or anyone disputes that. the question really is, is the offensive player able to avoid those steals if they have higher speed? i think this largely comes down to, is speed a factor in turnovers in general? my take is that speed is at most a minor impact in turnovers, and very possibly not a factor at all. to those who think speed is important to beating a press, keep in mind that speed is a guard skill, and great guards with good bh/pass usually have good speed, too. a team who has those bh/pass skills to beat a press, usually has the speed. so is the speed helping more, to stop turnovers, or is it just a coincidence, because high speed players usually have high bh/pass as well? its just important to keep that correlation in mind, when considering or investigating this issue.
all im saying is, its really hard to isolate the effect of speed on beating the press, compared to the effect of speed on beating man or zone teams. speed is really important, and is tightly correlated, from a recruit generation standpoint, with other key ratings that DO help more against the press. so, its very, very hard to determine if speed actually helps more against the press than against other defenses, there's just so much muddying the water. which, is why i am not totally convinced i am right on this, despite the vast majority of my success coming with press teams. if someone wants to investigate this further, to try to understand it, i would suggest trying to break it down to different aspects of the game. if speed helps more in beating a press team, what specifically is it helping more in? does it help you defend against the press team better? (probably not, that would kind of make no sense, your defense goes against their offense, not their defense). does it help you avoid turnovers more? i think that is probably the key question for most people. does it help you be more efficient scoring wise, once you "beat the press" in the traditional sense, meaning you get into your half court offense and don't turn the ball over? so like, does speed make your fg% higher, more so when playing a press team, than when you play a man team? of course speed helps on offensive efficiency, but does it help more vs the press, than against man or zone? does speed help more in terms of pushing a rebounding advantage? anyone can try to investigate these things, and come up with their own conclusion.
just to share my conclusion down that line of thinking, the one area i DO think speed is more helpful, in beating the press, than in beating other defenses, is in foul drawing. i think we'd all agree that speed is a key rating in terms of drawing fouls. drawing fouls is better against the press, than against other sets, because it can really compound their rotation / fatigue issues - this is along the lines of what i was talking about above, with the value of foul drawing strategies against the press. so, i do think speed is more valuable in beating the press, in that sense. i don't personally think it helps on the turnover front though, which is where i think most people think it helps. of course, i could be wrong about all of this! anyway, just some food for thought. trying to think through the impact of ratings, in the smaller pieces of the game, its really a valuable exercise, even if you don't know the answer in the end. it definitely helps bring clarity to what ratings matter and why.
1/27/2016 11:21 PM (edited)