Posted by npb7768 on 4/28/2016 12:21:00 PM (view original):
I've kept records for some of my teams over the years, and I did a quick count.

It looks like around 57% of the time, the Sim AI in the CT outperforms its regular season results (point spreads). This is for 4 of my teams.
I've had 35 games vs Sims in my CT's, and 20 times the Sim did better in the tourney.

Crum Albertus Magnus (seasons 63 thru 68), Sim outperformed 6 out of 11.
Crum Merrimack (seasons 69 thru 74), Sim outperformed 3 out of 5.
Crum Holy Cross (seasons 75 thru 81), Sim outperformed 5 out of 8 (though I lost records for Crum Season 79).
Wooden Conn College (seasons 77 thru 81), Sim outperformed 6 out of 11.
So that's 20 out of 35 times, but pretty consistent across the board.
I have to find my current Naismith team for more numbers.

UPDATE:
Naismith Albertus Magnus (seasons 83 thru 87), Sim outperformed 4 out of 10 times, so only 40%, though 2 times they outperformed by only 1 point.

So, grand total, 24 out of 45 times, or 53.3% of the time, across 45 games.
So not that outrageous, but the Sim has outperformed vs 4 of my 5 teams, and I've had some really good teams through these seasons.

The biggest seasons that ****** me off were:

Wooden Conn College:
Season 81 (14-2): Reg Season beat Westfield State (6-10) by 15, then I lost by 5 in the CT.
Season 78 (16-0): Reg Season beat Amherst (10-6) by 5, then I lost by 6 in the CT.

Naismith Albertus Magnus:
Season 83 (15-1): Reg Season beat Newbury (11-5) by 12, then I lost by 4 in the CT.

Crum Albertus Magnus (13-3):
Season 63 (13-3): Reg Season beat Rivier (14-2) by 16, then I lost by 7 in the CT.
Season 66 (14-2): Reg Season beat Emmanuel (6-10) by 9, then I lost by 4 in the CT.

Crum Holy Cross:
Season 77 (13-3): Reg Season beat Lehigh (12-4) by 17, then I lost by 14 in the CT.
.

Interesting...and to call it a coaching problem is fantasy..or perhaps the SIM suddenly get pumped up when tourney time comes....right

his data actually suggests there is nothing to see... 53.3% outperforming when you would outperform 50% on average, is nothing. well, maybe you'd tie like 5%, and outperform 47.5% and underperform 47.5% or something. but still, 53.3% is pretty normal.

people have made this suggestion before, i've actually had the reverse. if i had a team in a mostly sim conference, its guaranteed to be a team i don't care about. those teams often lose regular season games, even to sims, but would rarely lose in the CT to a sim. in my case, its easily explained by amount of attention i paid regular season vs CT. but in general, i think the "you notice it more" explanation carries the day here, there is nothing according to admin different about how a sim plays regular season vs post season. also, you are more likely to play good sims in the CT, which means you are more likely to lose to sims in the CT, compared to the regular season - but that says nothing about playing the same sim, CT vs regular season. however, i suspect that the increased chance of losing to a sim in general (any sim, not a specific one) going up in the CT, does sour people's perceptions.

edit: you know, maybe im remembering wrong. when i saw this i was thinking for sure admin had commented on this specifically (tarek, not seble), but now im thinking i may have confused it with something else. im not sure. im still virtually 100% positive there is nothing different, but, i thought it was only fair to edit this post...

...especially given that it's not any kind of sample size.