Posted by shoe3 on 5/31/2016 9:39:00 PM (view original):
Yeah, the real problem is that negativity proliferates. Negative thoughts and feelings stick with you, and start to become perpetuating and self-justifying. Lots of people are open to, and even like these changes as presented in beta. The ones who hate it are going to be the loudest, and it's going to be an echo chamber. The game is going to be fine. Some will leave, but lots of people leave now.

This is exactly the perpetual argument that I responded to a few hours ago. I guess you either didn't read it or just don't care to respond.

The reality is, there is a critical mass for this game to be fun, at least for most of us. Some people like playing video games against the computer on easy, but most of the people playing HD do it for the competition. You've probably noticed some of the more veteran coaches complaining about the lack of users literally since you've been signed up on this site. Some remember how much more fun/competitive HD really was when worlds were full. Now they're what, about 1/3 full? At best?

That critical mass is still comfortably below where we are now, but it's not a huge margin. The last major update cost well over 50% of the user base within the first 6 months. This is not as big of an update, but it represents a substantial change in the most important aspect of the game, so it's a big adjustment. A lot of people don't like it. A lot of people didn't like it before they ever saw it. I'm not saying that was the right way to look at it, I'm saying it was a relatively common perspective. A lot of veteran users are rather disenchanted with seble's handling of game changes, rightly or not. And a lot of these unhappy, disgruntled, disenchanted users are going to leave when the update rolls out. Others will cut back on their numbers of teams.

I'm not convinced the game can take another hit like that and stay above the aforementioned critical mass. Like I said earlier, even if this change works out great, better than hoped for by the optimists, the game can still crash and burn if we drop down to the point where every human coach can easily make the NT every year at every level. More coaches leave because the competition is gone, profits go away, maybe Fox pulls the plug. Ultimately, the point I can't get past is that anything in the same ballpark as the exodus we saw after the release of potential will virtually unavoidably end HD. Doesn't matter how good the update is. You can tell people to be optimistic or leave all you want, but if they actually all leave, this game goes in the tank. There just aren't enough users left to take the hit.

The point that the optimistic crowd seems to be missing is that it doesn't even matter if the update is great. No matter how many times you tell them to, some people aren't going to wait and see and try to get used to it. And that's all that matters here.

That and the fact that it really is looking true that most of the people who are positive about the update have joined the site in the last 3-4 years, after the engine rewrite and the introduction of potential.

dahs you are awesome

I actually like the new scouting system. There could be some changes that would benefit it, but for the most part I like it. The new scouting is fresh and is a lot of fun in my opinion. It takes some work to find some talent. You don't just pay a service and know everything about every player in the state. You actually have to send your scout places, attend camps, and host camps to discover talent.

Posted by bk41129 on 5/31/2016 10:04:00 PM (view original):
I actually like the new scouting system. There could be some changes that would benefit it, but for the most part I like it. The new scouting is fresh and is a lot of fun in my opinion. It takes some work to find some talent. You don't just pay a service and know everything about every player in the state. You actually have to send your scout places, attend camps, and host camps to discover talent.

You forgot "get lucky enough to have your camps and your scouts find the right guy."

I mean really it just is just a bunch of hoops to go through? thats "innovative" ? level 1-3 are garbage and give you highly speculative information that carries a huge risk I don't forsee anyone being extremely successful doing that, yeh maybe you can build a consistent 1-2nd rounder doing that but thats not really success. Prestige not affecting camps and an assistant coach that makes anyone on TLC look smart makes those things a hassle and not actually that useful. I believe of the camp I hosted (B- Harvard) I had 3 B's and 7 C's all were terrible and I wouldn't have taken any on my current D1 teams and probably not even on my D2 teams(maybe some would), so I was left to dig through a pile of **** in all the D's and F's wow so innovative....

Yeh it could've been done well trying to freshen up recruiting, again still not a top problem, but it was implemented very poorly anyways so trying to "fix" something that doesn't really need fixing and not even doing a great job =/= good update.

Also things like preferences of playing uptempo or perimeter offense or strong defense are completely stupid. First off how do you measure that? My teams range from slowdown -> uptempo every season as well as thoughout each season I vary tempo's. Why does a Center with sub 20 per/bh/pas want to play a perimter based offense? How do you measure defenses? man teams give up few points, but press teams cause a lot of turnovers? Some years I have really strong offenses and average defenses and some years I have an elite defense? how do you manage that? going season to season for those factors is hilarious.

Posted by dahsdebater on 5/31/2016 10:10:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bk41129 on 5/31/2016 10:04:00 PM (view original):
I actually like the new scouting system. There could be some changes that would benefit it, but for the most part I like it. The new scouting is fresh and is a lot of fun in my opinion. It takes some work to find some talent. You don't just pay a service and know everything about every player in the state. You actually have to send your scout places, attend camps, and host camps to discover talent.

You forgot "get lucky enough to have your camps and your scouts find the right guy."

and get lucky and hope no one else did.

Posted by dahsdebater on 5/31/2016 4:48:00 PM (view original):
We're only a few days in, but the beta has already confirmed my suspicions that if and when the changes are enacted, I will be retiring from HD. I'm already down to 1 world. I don't have the regular free time that it seems is going to be necessary to actually be successful under the new scouting system. It also looks like luck is going to be a massively enhanced factor. What I like about D2 and D3 is that they're less luck-oriented than D1 (from a recruiting standpoint in particular). From early returns, it looks to me like luck factors more heavily into the lower divisions in the beta than in D1 under the current system. Maybe you'll find some good recruits, but I don't see an obvious path to a reasonably high probability of finding enough to fill 3-4 open spots in a region with competing schools. Maybe as we get deeper in and understand the processes better it will reveal itself, but it's not obvious now.

From my perspective, this is a bad change for a game that's already pushing the limits of how small the user base can be while remaining entertaining to play. And that's not about the luck factor. It's about the time input to maximize your odds of finding those good recruits. It's more work. I will say this - effort should correlate much more strongly with success. Under the current system, a guy who spends 12-15 hours per week micromanaging every aspect of 1-2 teams will develop an edge over a guy who spends 2 hours a week setting a few gameplanning settings and maybe 5-10 total hours on recruiting. But it's not a huge edge. With a little luck, the low-effort guy will still make deep tournament runs, and will certainly beat the high-effort guy head to head a reasonable proportion of the time. I think that gap is about to grow. If you're the high-effort guy, you're going to be excited about that. It's nice to have your efforts rewarded. I used to be that guy, I get it. But probably 75-80% of the user base fits more closely into the low-effort set. If enough of those guys get frustrated and quit then the population crash is easily going to outweigh the effort advantage, even for the high-effort users.

I agree with the vast majority of this post, and think it largely reflects my sentiments, but there are a few differences so I'd like to hash them out...if not directly show they unwittingly highlight my position. Firstly, I think your statements, especially the later portion of the second one, are a complete non-sequitur, in my humble opinion. You say in the first paragraph that "luck is going to be a massively enhanced factor" yet in the second you claim "if you're a high effort guy you're going to be excited about this", sooooo, which one is it??? And HONESTLY, I'm not trying to be a dick at all whatsoever, but if we could square those statements then we might actually find the answer to both the need to keep the game as it is and welcome in a whole new community and/or conform with the new WIS business model...no????

Posted by nachopuzzle on 5/31/2016 10:18:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dahsdebater on 5/31/2016 4:48:00 PM (view original):
We're only a few days in, but the beta has already confirmed my suspicions that if and when the changes are enacted, I will be retiring from HD. I'm already down to 1 world. I don't have the regular free time that it seems is going to be necessary to actually be successful under the new scouting system. It also looks like luck is going to be a massively enhanced factor. What I like about D2 and D3 is that they're less luck-oriented than D1 (from a recruiting standpoint in particular). From early returns, it looks to me like luck factors more heavily into the lower divisions in the beta than in D1 under the current system. Maybe you'll find some good recruits, but I don't see an obvious path to a reasonably high probability of finding enough to fill 3-4 open spots in a region with competing schools. Maybe as we get deeper in and understand the processes better it will reveal itself, but it's not obvious now.

From my perspective, this is a bad change for a game that's already pushing the limits of how small the user base can be while remaining entertaining to play. And that's not about the luck factor. It's about the time input to maximize your odds of finding those good recruits. It's more work. I will say this - effort should correlate much more strongly with success. Under the current system, a guy who spends 12-15 hours per week micromanaging every aspect of 1-2 teams will develop an edge over a guy who spends 2 hours a week setting a few gameplanning settings and maybe 5-10 total hours on recruiting. But it's not a huge edge. With a little luck, the low-effort guy will still make deep tournament runs, and will certainly beat the high-effort guy head to head a reasonable proportion of the time. I think that gap is about to grow. If you're the high-effort guy, you're going to be excited about that. It's nice to have your efforts rewarded. I used to be that guy, I get it. But probably 75-80% of the user base fits more closely into the low-effort set. If enough of those guys get frustrated and quit then the population crash is easily going to outweigh the effort advantage, even for the high-effort users.

I agree with the vast majority of this post, and think it largely reflects my sentiments, but there are a few differences so I'd like to hash them out...if not directly show they unwittingly highlight my position. Firstly, I think your statements, especially the later portion of the second one, are a complete non-sequitur, in my humble opinion. You say in the first paragraph that "luck is going to be a massively enhanced factor" yet in the second you claim "if you're a high effort guy you're going to be excited about this", sooooo, which one is it??? And HONESTLY, I'm not trying to be a dick at all whatsoever, but if we could square those statements then we might actually find the answer to both the need to keep the game as it is and welcome in a whole new community and/or conform with the new WIS business model...no????

the more effort you put in the better your luck gets?

Posted by nachopuzzle on 5/31/2016 10:18:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dahsdebater on 5/31/2016 4:48:00 PM (view original):
We're only a few days in, but the beta has already confirmed my suspicions that if and when the changes are enacted, I will be retiring from HD. I'm already down to 1 world. I don't have the regular free time that it seems is going to be necessary to actually be successful under the new scouting system. It also looks like luck is going to be a massively enhanced factor. What I like about D2 and D3 is that they're less luck-oriented than D1 (from a recruiting standpoint in particular). From early returns, it looks to me like luck factors more heavily into the lower divisions in the beta than in D1 under the current system. Maybe you'll find some good recruits, but I don't see an obvious path to a reasonably high probability of finding enough to fill 3-4 open spots in a region with competing schools. Maybe as we get deeper in and understand the processes better it will reveal itself, but it's not obvious now.

From my perspective, this is a bad change for a game that's already pushing the limits of how small the user base can be while remaining entertaining to play. And that's not about the luck factor. It's about the time input to maximize your odds of finding those good recruits. It's more work. I will say this - effort should correlate much more strongly with success. Under the current system, a guy who spends 12-15 hours per week micromanaging every aspect of 1-2 teams will develop an edge over a guy who spends 2 hours a week setting a few gameplanning settings and maybe 5-10 total hours on recruiting. But it's not a huge edge. With a little luck, the low-effort guy will still make deep tournament runs, and will certainly beat the high-effort guy head to head a reasonable proportion of the time. I think that gap is about to grow. If you're the high-effort guy, you're going to be excited about that. It's nice to have your efforts rewarded. I used to be that guy, I get it. But probably 75-80% of the user base fits more closely into the low-effort set. If enough of those guys get frustrated and quit then the population crash is easily going to outweigh the effort advantage, even for the high-effort users.

I agree with the vast majority of this post, and think it largely reflects my sentiments, but there are a few differences so I'd like to hash them out...if not directly show they unwittingly highlight my position. Firstly, I think your statements, especially the later portion of the second one, are a complete non-sequitur, in my humble opinion. You say in the first paragraph that "luck is going to be a massively enhanced factor" yet in the second you claim "if you're a high effort guy you're going to be excited about this", sooooo, which one is it??? And HONESTLY, I'm not trying to be a dick at all whatsoever, but if we could square those statements then we might actually find the answer to both the need to keep the game as it is and welcome in a whole new community and/or conform with the new WIS business model...no????

With the higher levels of scouting, effort will help. Based on what I'm seeing here and in the test world forums, some guys seem to be blindly bumping recruits that initially seem potentially interesting up to level 4 pretty much without further thought. That's obviously a mistake and a waste of money. As has been pointed out in a few places, intelligent use of deductive reasoning can tell you at level 2 when a guy is likely not worth pursuing further, even if it's not blatantly obvious. But remembering what you saw at each level, tracking, deciding who to further scout, is going to take time and effort and something that looks like paperwork. Some coaches like that, and many don't.

Luck is tangential to that. There are 2 aspects here: you need to get lucky enough to find the right guys, and you need to put in time to ensure that you follow up with the right ones and optimally use your resources. But at D2 and D3 in particular, I do think luck wins out to a great extent. The number of guys you'll be able to afford to get to level 3/4 is going to be extremely limited. The number you'll be able to even test out to level 2 is not huge. Your sample sizes are tiny. Even there, your odds certainly improve with effort. But the luck factor is looking huge to me.

Perhaps a better short answer to your question would be this: in the current engine, we can fairly quickly and easily sift through, typically, several hundred potentially viable recruits. Under the new engine, it takes a greater amount of effort and data tracking to sift through several dozen potentially viable recruits. I can see where it seems like an oxymoron, but I think the impact of both luck and effort is enhanced, with luck being a bigger roadblock in the lower divisions and effort likely a bigger roadblock in D1. But I haven't really tested out what a D1 scouting budget looks like in a practical sense.

I think its a pretty big ***** move to request a ban...then fallback on some bullshit account so your voice can still be heard.

Here's what they teach during day #1 at martyrdom school...you don't come back to life until god seble says so.

Posted by viva_il_re on 5/31/2016 11:01:00 PM (view original):

Posted by nachopuzzle on 5/31/2016 10:46:00 PM (view original):
I think its a pretty big ***** move to request a ban...then fallback on some bullshit account so your voice can still be heard.

Here's what they teach during day #1 at martyrdom school...you don't come back to life until god seble says so.

I've been trying to get banned here too... I made it clear I was going to get banned on this account as well. But then dahs had to get all reasonable up in here. So there isn't anyone to argue with right now.... unless cubcub wants to stop being a ***** *** ***** and come out and play.

maybe this will help

**** you

#pleasebanmehereto
#nomoreaccountstouse

#youlikethat

So, this is the curriculum from day #2 of martyrdom school....you're special because you have insight which nobody else has...and in fact you very might well be the chosen one...kinda like Neo from that ridiculous 2nd matrix film.

Posted by shoe3 on 5/31/2016 9:39:00 PM (view original):
Yeah, the real problem is that negativity proliferates. Negative thoughts and feelings stick with you, and start to become perpetuating and self-justifying. Lots of people are open to, and even like these changes as presented in beta. The ones who hate it are going to be the loudest, and it's going to be an echo chamber. The game is going to be fine. Some will leave, but lots of people leave now.

Well put. Of course, the loudest will continue to exhibit all the thought process of an echo chamber. No problem, really, because you can skip their posts. Plenty of other people actually have something to say that has thought behind it.

There's one sentence up there that sums it up pretty well: "A lot of people didn't like it [the update] before they even saw it," or words to that effect. That is exactly true, and those people who weren't thinking then aren't thinking yet ... and there is no reason that I can see to expect them to start actually thinking any time soon.

Posted by CoachSpud on 6/1/2016 12:03:00 AM (view original):

Posted by shoe3 on 5/31/2016 9:39:00 PM (view original):
Yeah, the real problem is that negativity proliferates. Negative thoughts and feelings stick with you, and start to become perpetuating and self-justifying. Lots of people are open to, and even like these changes as presented in beta. The ones who hate it are going to be the loudest, and it's going to be an echo chamber. The game is going to be fine. Some will leave, but lots of people leave now.

Well put. Of course, the loudest will continue to exhibit all the thought process of an echo chamber. No problem, really, because you can skip their posts. Plenty of other people actually have something to say that has thought behind it.

There's one sentence up there that sums it up pretty well: "A lot of people didn't like it [the update] before they even saw it," or words to that effect. That is exactly true, and those people who weren't thinking then aren't thinking yet ... and there is no reason that I can see to expect them to start actually thinking any time soon.

So you're also going to conveniently ignore that fact that motivation, and who's "right," are totally irrelevant here? If everybody expressing negative opinions here or in the test world forums pulls all of their teams, HD is dead. It's as simple as that. It doesn't matter what their reasons are. If they leave, HD stops being fun and stops making money. Whether the users give up because the worlds are underpopulated to the point of no competitive interest, or FOX shuts it down, that kills HD inside of a year if the currently unhappy users aren't appeased somehow.