Original Thread (too long now, takes up a whole page)
pkoopman Posted:
1) You still don't understand what the word "random" means, and are using it improperly. You should stop, it's starting to look like you're deliberately mischaracterizing what the recruiting game is now. I talk about probabilities because that's what the recruiting game is based on now, a probabilistic model rather than a deterministic one. 51 doesn't beat 49 100% of the time in recruiting. "Old system...don't know how much someone else was going to spend on a guy" isn't randomness or an example of a probabilistic model, it's just an unknown variable. No one said there were no unknown variables in the previous version. We just didn't think eBay bidding was a fun or realistic simulation of real life recruiting.
2) "It's frustrating for many to know that even if your strategy is better, you might still lose" is an incoherent objection. You may as well say "My horse was a better horse, his workout time was faster. How could he lose this race? I'm so frustrated!" or "I have the bigger, shinier and more expensive gun, it's frustrating that I could be killed in battle by a guy with a bayonet." If you consider losing a single recruit as an upset of your strategy in a probabilistic world, then your strategy wasn't better. Your strategy was myopic and poor.
3) "How I prioritize, who I target, and how much I invest is literally no different than before..." Even if literally true, which I doubt, the effects of those strategies and how they play in a multi-player universe, are now different. If you understand that 51 doesn't always beat 49 for a recruit, you can feel better about challenging others, and you can expect to be challenged more often. 3.0 promotes battles for valuable commodities, where the previous version incentivized risk aversion.
4) On that 3rd paragraph, as I recall, the stated goal was for national recruiting to be more feasible for elite recruits - so for high D1. The intention was never for D3 to recruit nationally, at least not "fully scouted" guys. For a new player, who isn't used to having an exhaustive and completely accurate current scouting report for literally every recruitable high school and juco player in the world at her/his fingertips, I suspect scouting will be fun to the extent that s/he enjoys the discovery process.
=======================
I agree with 1) completely. The
probabilistic model used is NOT random. It does contain elements of chance that are based on probability. If people don't like that model of recruiting, certainly if they can not ever come to accept that form of recruiting, this is not the game for them. It's just that simple.
As for 2) .. Also agreed. An HD2.0 only approach to recruiting, with no planning for increased variability in obtaining the top recruits is indeed myopic.
As for 3) .. Again 100% agreement.
As for 4) Agreed again. They specifically changed the original design to keep scouting 'more local' for D-III and also to an extent D-II, while making it easier at D-1 to scout and recruit nationally. I think this system does that. Elite Div-1 teams can certainly recruit good players at much farther distances now. They can also lose battles close to home. Both good things.
I understand that some people do not like the probabilistic model for recruiting. But I personally think that it better models how 18 year old recruits make decisions like this. Where they have their commitment ceremonies. They call the media together and they have 2, 3, 4, etc,. Hats on the table and they pick one. There are a lot of variables besides just an ebay style auction that go into that process. And I firmly believe that this probabilistic recruiting system is much better at simulating that process.
Now that they have committed to doing SOMETHING about EEs (somehow learning of them earlier in the process, though they have not spelled it out completely.) .. if that something also adds more recruiting time to the second session for coaches who are changing jobs, then they will have addressed both of the major issues I have with HD 3.0.
11/23/2016 8:29 AM (edited)