I have 0 budgeted for college scouting, but see a college player who is rated as a 94 overall. Some funky ratings in there, obviously... Would you trust it enough to at least rank the guy in your top 20 or so, knowing he is most likely not THAT good, but still hoping for serviceable? I have a late pick, so it would really just be a flier.

I would not.

Nope. Every draft, I see three or four prospects on the "zero" side. There are usually one or two absurd stud projections. About one in four of those is ever actually drafted in the first round, and they don't project out anywhere near what Zero does.

Thanks. Another question. Do the guys who are "looking to be drafted in the first round" or "looking to be drafted in the first five rounds" count as questionable selections, assuming they actually are picked where they want to go?

Yes. Far as I can tell, they're about the same as "May sign if the deal is right." They'll likely consider their first offer for awhile then come back with an increased demand.

Posted by damag on 7/17/2023 3:51:00 PM (view original):
Nope. Every draft, I see three or four prospects on the "zero" side. There are usually one or two absurd stud projections. About one in four of those is ever actually drafted in the first round, and they don't project out anywhere near what Zero does.

Had the draft last night, and he didn't get anywhere close to me. He actually turned out to be pretty good, even if my projection of him as either a catcher or a shortstop was off.

https://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerRatings.aspx?pid=12423464

Yeah, you never know about those guys. If you are counting on him to be a good player, stay away. But if you are gambling on a 200:1 longshot, why not? It looks like he'll be a 1B/COF with a decent bat.

Are things going to even out for this guy, or does he actually suck?

https://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerRatings.aspx?pid=11223685

His DUR and STA are about as high as you can get which inflates his OVR (and thus perceived value for a lot of owners) compared to similar skilled players. But yeah, he's definitely underperforming what I'd expect by a wide margin. I'd compare him to someone like this, and that guy's running a full 1 run lower in ERA. That's a headscratcher

I’m a little confused here, for this guy how were they able to offer 10 million the first season then 18 every season after? Doesn’t each year have to be within 25% of each other?

https://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerContracts.aspx?pid=9773030

In a four-year contract, no season can comprise more than 30% of the total value of the contract. In a five-year contract, no season can comprise more than 25% or less than 10% of the total value of the contract.

Posted by brianplath on 7/28/2023 1:20:00 AM (view original):
His DUR and STA are about as high as you can get which inflates his OVR (and thus perceived value for a lot of owners) compared to similar skilled players. But yeah, he's definitely underperforming what I'd expect by a wide margin. I'd compare him to someone like this, and that guy's running a full 1 run lower in ERA. That's a headscratcher

Disagree with the "wide margin" part of this. He's underperforming a little; I'd expect 4.60 or so. But he gives up a fair number of HR with that GB/FB of 34, and it's not like he has any dominant ratings to compensate.

Brian-- your guy is performing about as I would expect. Half the difference between the two guys in ERA is the first guy underperforming; the other half is DH league vs. non-DH league.

Except he's only pitched 18% of his big league innings in the NL so you've got another 40% of the difference to find, hahaha

Well, that was sloppy of me...your guy is, in fact, outperforming what I would expect. Oops.

Is there a certain point in the preseason when players’ salaries for the year become guaranteed? Meaning, if I release some minor leaguers or a pre-arb guy before X stage, am I still on the hook just because they rolled over on the roster?