Posted by contrarian23 on 7/3/2022 10:03:00 AM (view original):
Posted by just4me on 6/1/2022 8:24:00 PM (view original):
People used to tell me the same thing when I first started developing the fatigue strategy. It wasn’t until I posted the thread “How to Win With 800 IP” and Grizzly took off with it that people took it serious.
I still have my tickets to admin when I was going through my first tests around that and telling them it could be exploited to a dominating effect and it took two seasons of data and me steam rolling a TOC before they understood and started brainstorming ideas to curtail that strategy.
This is not that, but is built on a much better understanding of the fatigue model than we used to have (I’ve got three separate threads around the different types of pitching fatigue in the main forum, plus elbirdo’s invaluable PC allocation thread). Understanding how fatigue works on each aspect and how to minimize the impacts of fatigue when it is in play allows for much more efficient IP drafting.
That’s where this comes together, and if I were all about trying to win, I’d be pushing the extreme in every one of these leagues: go big or go home. My WISC teams (almost) always mirror whatever strategy du jour I’m playing with or testing around.
But, along these lines, and as a result of these conversations, I’ve entered two teams into what should be competitive leagues. One with 1,044 IP in a $60m OL. The other with 1,101 IP in a $90m TOC advantage league. Neither team has a mopup and both play in hitters parks. I plan to use IP stretching and fatigue mitigation strategies simultaneously.
There’s much discussed value around stretching pitchers in the main forum (including samples of these low IP teams winning 110-120 games, a CL (granted that one only won 87 but dominated the playoffs). If you can draft the equivalent of $40k/IP for $30k/IP, that allows you to draft a much better offense to go along with similar quality pitching.
But I also am not one who adjusts things game to game. I’m a set it and forget it manager. I often go 2-3 weeks without looking at the managers office for any given team (though I do look at the play-by-plays after every game).
Thought I would check in on the two teams referenced above, since I am in both of these leagues.
just4me's team in the 90M TOC Advantage league (with 1100 IP) is currently 23-53, sporting a team ERA of 9.14. They have allowed 812 runs in 76 games, which is by far the worst in the league, except for 1 owner who drafted a ton of really mediocre innings and appears to have abandoned his team.
It's still early in the 60M league (where just4me has a team with 1044 IP), but that team is currently 8-14, ERA of 6.99. They lead the league in runs scored (147) though not by a wide margin. They lead the league in runs allowed (177) which is 25% more than any other team.
Granting that it's still early in the 60M, and perhaps time for things to turn around there, I will stick with the "this is a really bad gamble" conclusion.
Just to close out this thread, I will point out the following.
just4me's team in the 90M TOC advantage league:
49-113
1038 runs scored (a very good total to be sure, but only ranked 7th overall)
1859 runs allowed (by far the worst in the league except for one team that was obviously completely abandoned)
just4me's team in the 60M league:
57-97 with 8 games to play
1153 runs scored (more than 250 ahead of the next closest team)
1488 runs allowed (almost 600 more than the next closest team)
My point here isn't to be critical. just4me is a legendary WIS competitor for whom I have a lot of respect. And it is of course possible that life has just intervened the past 2 months and he wasn't able to really execute the strategy he describes for getting maximum stretch out of his IP. But since the apparent point of these 2 teams was to demonstrate that it's possible to win with very low IP in a competitive league against other strong owners, I think the results speak for themselves. At best you can say that this is a high-risk strategy that has a very small chance of paying off if you get very lucky and can devote maximum attention to your team. My own assessment is that it's a suboptimal way to allocate your salary budget, and that you are much better off with a more traditional number of IP.