Pollet Ticks
Background: I played several 16x16 seasons for a stretch, then at some point a couple years ago had a conflict and had to skip one and then kind of lost track of this league. I kind of forgot how I’d prepared in the past but found an old Sheet I’d used before and could work off again. My approach is to research all the teammates in advance, making special note of elite SP and RP seasons as well as potentially useful ones, then noting good teammate positions for potential starters. I like to try to gauge the overall SP quality of the league early and target the choicest teammates who also come with a useful season, whenever possible. My theory in a league like this is you always have plenty of teammate hitters you can plug in somewhere. That’s the idea anyway. The rest of this is just my braindroppings written as we went along, so there’s proof that even if it was a terrible pick it was a terrible pick with some twisted logic behind it.
Initial pick: I got the heads-up from schwarze a few hours before the league posted and started researching some possible players. I got it down to a list of 4 or 5 pitchers I thought might be good picks based on these limitations. I got into the thread pretty quickly and was able to get the guy I’d settled on, Camilo Pascual. He had one strong season (2.46 ERC#) and a whole lot of ones you probably wouldn’t want to roster in a $120M league. Or even an $80M league really.
Then the rest of the picks came in, and well let’s just say it was a barrage of heavy hitters. Lots of lefty power in the mix, and suddenly a less-than-stellar righty SP seemed like a bad way to start my pitching staff. Especially when a bunch of big-inning pitchers were on the board, too. So I looked for the best outlier single season from a pitcher (ideally a lefty) to roster, with a high-inning reliever being the sort of rarity I thought would be especially helpful considering the paucity of relievers to go around in this era.
I landed on 1943 Howie Pollet, with his 125 innings of 1.84 ERC# and not more than a couple other seasons worth rostering. He’s not the sort of player who will start a panic in this draft trying to avoid his worst seasons, not with a Whitehill in the mix, but he’s going to saddle many people with a pretty weak $2-4M season nonetheless. With a salary of $4.7M, Pollet landed me the 14th pick in R1, which I figured would allow me a strong shot at one of the first picks in R2 as well and a chance to nab two seasons I really want close to back to back. The downside is waiting through 13 picks until you get to start …
Round 1, Pick 14: 1934 Babe Ruth
Well, y’all were there, so you know that 6 of the first 10 picks were Ruth. Basically all of his reasonable salary seasons went right away. But I was actually eyeing this $4M season all along because it came with 297 IP from Lefty Gomez at 2.20 ERC#, which I ranked as about as good as any SP season I could still get in this draft. The only similar teammate SP options included high-HR rate guys like Denny McLain and Juan Marichal. I was nervous as the picks came in leading up to my slot and almost at one point posted that I was certain footballmm11 would make this pick just before me. And no one was making any bad picks, either. Every single one forced me to cross someone off my short list for picks in the first two rounds.
Now, there is definitely an argument to be made that there are much worse things than being stuck with an expensive Ruth season. Fair enough, but $25M on one guy was likely to make things complicated, at the very least. This version is actually a pretty fine hitter (.963 OPS# in 495 PA) and makes a good LH half of a platoon. Of course there will be a lot of LH starters in this league, so he’ll face a lot of them too, I’m sure. And .963 OPS is weak by Ruth standards but no slouch in most any lineup while not breaking the bank here. There’s even a really strong Gehrig season available if I wind up able to roster an $11M 1B teammate.
Looking back: I never really thought about Gehrig again.
Round 2, Pick 4: 1931 Carl Hubbell
I would certainly have wanted the 1934 Hubbell if he would have lasted, but Primetime took him with the back-to-back. I was settled on taking one of the big SP here, with seasons I considered from Spahn, Grove, and Lyons. The final tough call was this pick or ‘27 Lyons, who went 4 picks later. Both came with a good SP teammate, in my case Bill Walker. My team just has to be named Friends of Bill W now, of course. IYKYK.
Adding Walker and Hubbell puts me at 943 IP from 4 lefties at a .221 OAV and 1.11 WHIP with 0.34 HR/9. I think that’s a fine start at containing the likes of Ruth, Mathews and Mantle. I know I’ll wind up with tons of extra IP with all these workhorse guys in the draft, but at least I’ve got about 2/3 of what I’ll really need taken care of with as good a quality as you can expect in a draft like this. These Giants also have several other teammate possibilities if I need them in 1B Bill Terry, CF Mel Ott, and SS Travis Jackson. Now another long wait until it gets back to me, though I’m only dropping one spot next round …
Looking back: I wound up cutting Walker at the end, and the naming rules would have prevented that name anyway. Didn’t use any Hubbell teammates ultimately.
Round 3, Pick 5: 1936 Lefty Grove
I was sorely tempted to grab a choice Mantle or Hornsby season here before runs started on them, and I had a couple cheap seasons on my radar to save some money for later. But with the prospect of having several more big-inning SP to draft and their utility dwindling, I felt like the best use of the pick now was getting an actual useful season from another of them. I might end up with wasted seasons from all of Feller, Spahn, Lyons and (obviously) Whitehill, but racking up good innings feels wise to me at this stage.
This now gives me 1210 quality IP and the flexibility not to roster Walker as a teammate later if I don’t necessarily need him. For the moment, though, I have 5 lefties with a 2.43 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 0.38 HR/9. Also, there’s a fine $7.5M Jimmie Foxx (.338/.440/.631) teammate option if I can use him.
Looking back: I was determined to use Foxx’s bat since I managed to **** away getting an elite Ruth or Hornsby, so at least that worked out.
Round 4, Pick 7: 1955 Mickey Mantle
My one fear at this stage was a run on Hornsby seasons that weren’t cheap or expensive, and I flagged 4 I’d be happy with. Within 6 picks after me, 2 of those 4 already were gone. That left 5 owners ahead of me who still need Hornsby, and the first 3 passed on him. Then schwarze, who jumped me in the draft order this round, posted his pick for another of the seasons I targeted. That left a wait for nocomm999 to pick and see whether any lasted. And then of course the inevitable news … he took the last Hornsby I wanted.
The message came to me as I was finishing cooking dinner, and I knew I had to pivot quickly or delay the draft a little while. While I might still wind up with a super-costly Hornsby, I did have a need at this point to secure a big bat from someone in this draft for sure. I had narrowed down my Mantle options to 55, 59, or 61, but I was afraid of a repeat of the Hornsby run and decided to pick one now. There were good arguments for all of them, particularly a good bullpen arm with either 59 or 61. I made a hasty pick to go with 55 for a more balanced hitting profile than 61, which was super HR dependent. And it saved me over $1M, though it’s a gamble I can find a RP equivalent to Arroyo later as a teammate.
Looking back: Arroyo would have been nice, but Mantle got me two other key hitters ultimately: a good-fielding and not embarrassing Gil McDougald (.285/.361/.407) at 2B and half my catching from Elston Howard (.290/.336/.477)
Round 5, Pick 8: 1937 Rogers Hornsby
The run on the cheaper Hornsby seasons started up late in R4, and that meant soon I might be certain I’d be taking a $15M+ season unless I grabbed one of the final sub-$1M ones. Of course with all the mediocre LH pitching this league’s going to have, a $16M Hornsby might actually earn his salary at the plate. I just worry about all the inevitable dead weight to come and losing flexibility on teammates that could come at the end. I had to wait to see if calhoop and ronthegenius would take the two cheapest seasons ahead of me, and thankfully they left one. Now of course I have to draft a teammate season worthy of the spot, which is easier said than done, but at least I maintain more salary flexibility now. I have a strong defensive 2B option in McDougald (.765 OPS#) in hand, too, and I could do a lot worse.
Looking back: It hurts to see how good some of the lineups are with huge Ruth and Hornsby seasons, and I have neither. Even if my pitching is relatively strong, this is a hitting league and we might not be able to keep pace.
Round 6, Pick 4: 1964 Warren Spahn
There were several players I actually wanted at this point, but I’m also really aware of what I don’t want: more wasted salary than necessary. This $2.7M Spahn was the last one left under $6.2M, and I don’t see that I need any of the innings or teammates from any other version badly enough to spend the extra money on them. Granted, the opportunity cost here will be missing out on seasons and teammates I want, but I feel like salary flexibility at the end is going to be more valuable than anything at this point. I still need albatross versions of Feller and Whitehill, not to mention Lyons and Abernathy. That’s a lot of salary I can’t get much use out of!
On the plus side, though this is the worst of all Spahn seasons and will be a mopup for me, he comes with several potentially useful teammates: C Joe Torre, SS Denis Menke, and OF Hank Aaron or Rico Carty.
Looking back: Though I’d initially overlooked him, RP Bobby Tiefenauer (73 IP, 2.63 ERC#) wound up being a useful option. None of the hitters made it.
Round 7, Pick 5: 1966 Ted Abernathy (Braves partial)
When I went to bed with a handful of picks ahead of me, the 1937 Lyons I really wanted had not yet been taken, nor had the two Cuyler seasons I had highlighted. As I started to catch up in the morning, I noticed a couple Cuyler seasons had gone but I hadn’t checked yet to see if they matched my list. Then it was down to calhoop before me, and of course he took the Lyons. This marked the second time someone jumped me in the draft order and took the guy I wanted the next round, which is officially infuriating.
I decided to take stock of where a good bullpen upgrade remained among teammate options, and I realized that group got painfully small quickly. So that meant a quick pivot to a $1.2M Abernathy who comes with a great 63 IP Pat Jarvis (1.69 ERC#) and a usable 145 IP Clay Carroll (2.58 ERC#). I suspect rostering both of them will remove Bill Walker ultimately and push one of these dead-weight salary SP into some limited SP4 action. I know I know, it’s not wasted if you use it …
Looking back: I had Carroll on the team until the end, when I swapped in Tiefenauer because I couldn’t see how Carroll would actually use all his innings and he’s not all that amazing anyway. Jarvis will be the closer with no in-game fatigue concerns at least.
Round 8, Pick 3: 1931 Jim Bottomley
There were really only two strong hitting Bottomley seasons left, and I was pretty sure they wouldn’t last another round. The $7M 1925 season is definitely worthy and I would have taken it had I needed to. But this 441 PA season is almost as productive (.932 OPS# compared with .965) and more efficient to deploy. I have a handful of potential part-time RH 1B to work with depending on where else I have a need. 1937 Beau Bell can play 1B and corner OF to share time with both Bottomley and Ruth, and in fact I’m doing that with him in another theme league right now. At $5.4M, he might be the ticket. If I have the $$ (doubtful), I could also deploy 1936 Jimmie Foxx (who has OF ratings, though not exactly good ones) that way.
Another way I could go is to take one of two Joe Torre seasons available to me where he can play C and 1B. He could take 200 PA at 1B and the rest at C to share time with whichever Spud I draft. Since I’ll need a second C anyway, that would create roster efficiency. And I even have a $2,4M Bill Skowron who has 311 PA and could be a straight platoon mate with Bottomley. Combined they’d cost about $6.2M, which is a $1M savings over the 1925 Bottomley.
This is a good time to try to assess my likely 9 teammate position spots. I currently have two SP (Gomez and Walker) and two RP (Jarvis and Carroll) sitting in spots. I’ll need a 2B for sure and a second C, plus a way to fill the 1B/OF gap. That’s 7 spots. I assume Mathews plays 3B, but maybe Dark gets a bench spot and I use an 8th teammate at SS. That leaves 1 more as the backup OF to Cuyler if needed. Whether I’ll have salary space to do it the way I want to remains to be seen.
Looking back: This basically played out as planned, amazingly. Some names changed, but the roles held up.
Round 9, Pick 5: 1952 Bob Feller
I decided I’d go with the cheapest remaining Feller, 1952, if he fell to me, because it’s a $2M savings over the next lowest salary. The problem is a few owners could pick him before it got around to me. I was certain this time it would be BeAllEndAll, who had jumped me in the order this round so it would mark the third time that happened. But miraculously, no one took him so I had to pounce.
Now sure it would be nice to pick someone I want now and then, but I’ve done the math and keeping all these unwanted players’ salaries to a minimum will give me options that are better than anyone I could draft right now on offense.
As for teammates, the Bob Lemon from this season is actually quite good, 2.39 ERC# across 326 innings with a 0.44 HR/9. The problem is he costs over $10.7M and there’s almost no chance I can muster that. I would have to replace Walker and Carroll, which would hurt the bullpen, though it would save money if it comes to it later.
Looking back: Lemon is now my Game 1 starter. I have at least one RH SP in the mix after all.
Round 10, Pick 4: 1955 Alvin Dark
There was a bit of a run on Cuyler and Dark seasons, and in fact all the options for the latter that I still could stomach disappeared. At this point, they’re all going to cause pain. I can still work with a cheaper version of Cuyler, I think, though I almost jumped to take his 1931 solid season and already started writing that up before reconsidering. I’m not worried about runs on Mathews or Davis, both of whom have many options that work. And the remaining pitchers aren’t going to provide much savings, though there are two slightly cheaper Lyons seasons that wouldn’t be bad to land.
That leaves Dark as the place to go now. Two of his 5 remaining seasons have D-/D- ratings at SS, and at this point I am almost going to have to just use him at SS because I won’t be able to afford to waste his salary entirely. I narrowed it down to the two most usable defensive seasons, 1955 or 1956 (Cardinals), and just had to wait to see if BeAll, the one owner ahead of me who needs one, took either of those. He didn’t, so I took one with 535 PA at a slightly lower $/PA because I will have an easier time finding a backup with the right amount of PA. For the moment, I’m plugging in George Strickland of the 52 Indians with 109 PA (.626 OPS#) and A range, which is fine for a backup/defensive replacement.
With 8 spots to fill yet (5 draftees and 3 teammates based on what I get), I am sitting at about $80M in salary. At least $10M more will be wasted on two pitcher draftees, plus I should spend about $8M on Davis and Mathews and anywhere from $2-6M on Cuyler.
Looking back: If you’re going to just be terrible at a position offensively, SS is a good place to do it. But B-/C+ defense doesn’t exactly thrill me.
Round 11, Pick 5: 1935 Kiki Cuyler (Reds partial)
I went around and around on this pick, testing out whether I’d be happier with a $6M Cuyler with an .872 OPS and 72 speed in my lineup or taking a cheap version as a backup and cashing in my teammate savings on someone better. I did and re-did the calculations a few times, and I am pretty sure I’ll be able to put someone better in there. I’ll be able to use 3 teammates for the combination of platooning with Davis, Bottomley, and Ruth and filling the last OF spot. I have several C/1B or 1B/OF options as well as straight OF, so it will come down to how much I’ve managed to stock away. I still have no prototypical leadoff hitter, so I have my eye on taking a Cobb teammate of Whitehill, should that work out. But a lot can happen by then.
Looking back: I really pinned my hopes on getting a Cobb to lead off and didn’t have a decent second option. I’m not sure I did much better than Cuyler ultimately.
Round 12, Pick 3: 1961 Eddie Mathews
I had left my Cuyler proxy with schwarze before bedtime and then woke up in the middle of the night and checked the draft status (as one does, of course) to see that two Mathews seasons had gone already. This of course sparked a brief panic that every last usable Mathews season would be drafted before it came back to me, and I had to settle my brain sufficiently to go back to bed. But I was pretty resolved that this was the round to take the one I wanted among those remaining, because getting stuck with a soft version of his for $4M would definitely take some punch out of my lineup. I was pleased to wake up and see a string of not-Mathews picks that at least ensured I’d get a strong season.
The feared run never came, so I had my choice of Mathews seasons still. Sometimes it’s easier when the other owners only leave you one acceptable choice, alas. It came down to njbigwig as the last owner who could take a Mathews, and I had the 1959, 1960, and 1961 seasons all rating out pretty similarly. He took 1959 off the board for me, which was of course the one I had just settled on as my favorite. I went with 1961 for the better glove and higher AVG of the two.
Looking back: Glad I waited on Mathews as long as I did because I am happy with this version, but maybe I should have taken my preferred Whitehill here and pushed it one more round on Eddie?
Round 13, Pick 4: 1931 Earl Whitehill
There’s definitely a chess game at play now as I try to spend as little as possible on my Lyons and Whitehill picks and also get a Davis season I like. Only two of us still need Lyons, and there’s an 800K difference in the salary if schwarze takes his first. There are still 4 Whitehill seasons under $6M, but potentially I get stuck with more salary if a run begins after my pick. And I think I have enough catcher platoon options to manage whatever I get from Davis.
Though there are some teammates I might consider if I were to have been stuck with a more expensive Whitehill, at this point the one I really wanted is gone (I waited one round too long for the 1925 and Cobb) and the rest are just ballast. Might as well lock in some savings here and avoid a potential run that costs me more later.
Looking back: Wow, that’s a lot of wasted pitching salary I’ve accumulated. But at least I knew I’d get nothing from this guy regardless.
Round 14, Pick 4: 1928 Ted Lyons
The last of the dead-weight pitchers joins the party, ballooning us to nearly 2,400 innings. Was this a good strategy? Was there a great alternative? Too late now!
Round 15, Pick 3: 1935 Spud Davis
I had two choices left, but at least this one hits for average. His 373 PA fit with Elston Howard’s 321 decently enough. Howard should face the more HR-vulnerable pitchers or play in the parks that favor them, at least if I manage it right.
Looking back: What Davis also brought to the table was an option not previously on my radar for my last OF spot: Joe Medwick (.353/.386/.576). He doesn’t walk or run well, but he will have to work for a leadoff guy anyway. I tried a few other guys in this spot, including an $8.8M Aaron and a $10.4M Mays, but I was able to roster this $7M Medwick and add Bob Lemon with the salaries working out just right.
Summing up: So I wound up with Mantle, Mathews, Medwick, Foxx and McDougald as everyday players, plus the catching platoon and Dark occasionally spelled by his backup. The 1B/LF spot will rotate among Bottomley and Ruth with Foxx flip-flopping positions and ultimately Bottomley being a really good PH for quite a lot of games. Cuyler will just rest starters and such, but he’s really the only wasted hitter at $1.5M. And there will be a lot of high-scoring games, so extra PA won’t likely hurt.
As for pitching, I have 1,416 desirable innings, which means the albatrosses don’t have to do much of anything except occupy space. But I do have 981 innings worth of them, so that at least promises some occasional late-inning fun in blowouts and extra-inning nightmares. We’re bound to give up a couple 7-run 11th innings.
How to deploy my innings ideally remains to be seen, as Lemon and Gomez can pitch nearly every third day with Grove and Hubbell filling in the gaps. They will just move into setup roles when they’re not in the rotation, but it might be hard to use all their innings well. I really only have 3 relievers with 260 IP, so I’d imagine there should be plenty of opportunities for that extra starter to get used. I’ll find out soon enough.
I had no idea what ballpark to use here. I don’t think we necessarily will hit more HR than other teams, though we have good power. No one really hits a mittfull of 2B or 3B either aside from Medwick, and I have a few .280+ hitters along with just three who exceed .340. My compromise was a fairly neutral park, Forbes, with +1 for 1B to help my hitters but not push my pitchers too much. Possibly an extreme pitchers park would have been smarter, but it was a decision I left until the end of a really long day and just punted for something middle of the road. I’m sure like many other things, I’ll regret it soon enough.