Posted by footballmm11 on 2/20/2024 6:37:00 PM (view original):
I didn't give expected advancement odds, but here's my 36-game update with some commentary:
VERY GOOD: 8 teams
8 of my 15 teams are at 22-14 or better (over 60% win%) AND have an expected win% of 55% or better. Except for my Giants (1 GB of juice), all are in 1st Place.
CHW 1916-1963-1994-1986-1935 |
25-11 |
1st Place |
BOS 2018-1903-1948-1975-2017 |
25-11 |
1st Place |
PHI 1980-2021-1933-1920-1943 |
24-12 |
1st Place |
CLE 2017-2022-1922-1912-1949 |
23-13 |
1st Place |
SFG 2003-1903-2015-1994-1962 |
22-14 |
2nd Place |
CHC 1909-2021-1928-1984-1967 |
22-14 |
1st Place |
DET 1935-1945-1903-2023-1925 |
22-14 |
1st Place |
MIN 1915-1924-1970-2013-1978 |
22-14 |
1st Place |
ON THE BUBBLE: 6 teams
I have 6 teams between records of 16-20 (.444) to 19-17 (.528). They all have Exp% around 50% as well, except for the Reds who are .400 x% but 6-3 in 1-run games. My Cardinals team, as schwarze mentioned earlier, has not hit great despite my very high expectations for the offense. They have scored more lately, but still far short of expectations. Only one of these teams, the Dodgers, would currently advance. They are in 1st Place (barely) in a bad division.
LAD 2021-2016-1954-2017-2001 |
19-17 |
NYY 1930-2017-1981-2022-2004 |
18-18 |
STL 2004-1953-1970-1917-2016 |
18-18 |
ATL 1994-2012-2022-1973-1951 |
17-19 |
BAL 1991-1973-1925-1993-1978 |
16-20 |
CIN 1923-1939-1965-2012-2022 |
16-20 |
NOT GOOD: 1 team
After a promising 6-1 start, my A's team has just cratered, going 7-22 since. We've had 3 separate losing streaks of at least 5 games and a .409 Exp% to prove we're not competitive. The offense is last in the league and the pitching has been slightly above average but nowhere near good enough to make up for the poor hitting.
OAK 2020-2019-1904-1969-1941 |
13-23 |
VERY GOOD: 8 teams
8 of my 15 teams are: (a) at least 10 games over .500, (b) have an Exp% at least .525 and (c) are very likely to advance. All are in 1st place currently, except for the Giants. San Francisco has a tough league overall and I'm in a tough division, so they're probably the one team out of this group with the biggest risk of not advancing, but I think all 8 likely get through.
From my 36-game update, 7 of the 8 teams are the same, with the White Sox dropping out and the Dodgers sliding in.
CHC 1909-2021-1928-1984-1967 |
95-48 |
1st Place |
PHI 1980-2021-1933-1920-1943 |
89-54 |
1st Place |
CLE 2017-2022-1922-1912-1949 |
88-55 |
1st Place |
MIN 1915-1924-1970-2013-1978 |
88-55 |
1st Place |
DET 1935-1945-1903-2023-1925 |
84-59 |
1st Place |
SFG 2003-1903-2015-1994-1962 |
79-64 |
2nd Place |
LAD 2021-2016-1954-2017-2001 |
77-66 |
1st Place |
BOS 2018-1903-1948-1975-2017 |
77-66 |
1st Place |
ON THE BUBBLE: 6 teams
After my top 8, there's a pretty big gap to my next group of teams. These 6 are mostly .500 and slightly below (my CHW are barely above!) and also mostly out of the playoffs. The one exception there is my Yankees team who is winning a bad division, but it likely won't matter anyway as they'll be one of my lowest qualifying teams and likely outside my top 8 so they'll be dropped.
The White Sox have been the most disappointing of late, though their Exp% is by far the best of this group. My Cardinals team also has been disappointing overall--they were very bad early, as I mentioned in my earlier update...then had a great run to get a few games above .500, but have struggled again of late.
As for advancement, if any of these teams do make it they're likely dropped, though I may need 1 or 2 from this group if things go south with a couple of my top 8 teams. The Yankees, as I mentioned are in good shape due to their division. The CHW are also probably more likely than not to be top 6. Both STL and OAK may advance by virtue of being in a weak league. The Braves and Orioles, however, are unlikely to advance.
CHW 1916-1963-1994-1986-1935 |
72-71 |
3rd Place |
ATL 1994-2012-2022-1973-1951 |
71-72 |
4th Place |
NYY 1930-2017-1981-2022-2004 |
70-73 |
1st Place |
STL 2004-1953-1970-1917-2016 |
70-73 |
3rd Place |
OAK 2020-2019-1904-1969-1941 |
69-74 |
2nd Place |
BAL 1991-1973-1925-1993-1978 |
68-75 |
4th Place |
NOT GOOD: 1 team
For most of the season now, this Reds team has been by far the worst of my squads. They simply can't score--dead last among Cincinnati teams in runs. The 60-83 record is 8 games behind my next-worst team and their Exp% is correspondingly the worst as well.
CIN 1923-1939-1965-2012-2022 |
60-83 |
3rd Place |