Posted by schwarze on 2/20/2024 4:15:00 PM (view original):
Here is a "way-too-early" look back at my projections. I will list the teams in order that I posted them (same order as I drafted them). The first number is the "probability of advancing" that I arbitrarily assigned each team. The second number is their current W-L record. The third number is their Exp Win%.

Giants: 85%, 19-16, .671
Tigers: 80%, 19-16, .583
Red Sox: 60%, 17-18, .519
Athletics: <5%, 23-12, .643 (this is a huge shock to me)
Yankees: 45%, 20-15, .638
Dodgers: 50%, 25-10, .602 (one of the few teams I have that is lucky in 1-run games, 6-2)
White Sox: 35%, 19-16, .487
Reds: 75%, 17-18, .599 (1-5 in 1-run games)
Browns: 20%, 19-16, .503
Phillies: 30%, 16-19, .515
Braves: 55%, 17-18, .511
Cardinals: 30%, 23-12, 635 (thought my pitching was terrible, somehow it's 1st in league)
Indians: 70% 20-15, .562
Pirates: 90%, 16-19, .540 (unlucky 1-run games record, 3-6, pitching worse than expected)
Cubs: 80%, 11-24, .372 (this team and my A's team shows that I know nothing about this game)
Senators: 20%, 16-19, .506

My A's and Cubs now have the same record (61-69).

Posted by schwarze on 2/4/2024 9:22:00 AM (view original):
Athletics 1902, 1912, 1981, 1944, 1951

I felt pretty good about the initial selection of the 1902 Athletics. They have two really strong dead-ball pitchers, Rube Waddell (2.31) and Bill Bernhard (1.84). Nap Lajoie (.378, .418, .572, A++) only has 459 PA, but can rake. 3B Lave Cross (.342, .373, .447) didn't make the cut, but should have. OF Socks Seybold (316, .374, .513) normalizes well. And Ossee Schreckengost (.324, .346, .426) is 50% of my catching platoon. Solid start.

My selection of the 1912 Athletics is where the wheels fell off on my A's draft. Note that this season is not a bad season, and certainly would have drawn interest form others. Eddie Collins (.348, .448, .453) and Frank Baker (.347, .402, .559) are stud infielders. Stuffy McInnis (.327, .382, 451) is a decent 1B that I eventually didn't use. But that's really it. Amos Strunk (.289, .364, .485) is nothing more than a good defensive replacement. And the two pitchers that I eventually added, Eddie Plank (2.97) and Byron Houck (3.13) are nothing more than innings-eaters. But I already had Lajoie at 2B and Lave Cross at 3B so and didn't really need Collins or Baker. I passed up 1933, 1928, 1927 and 1935 - all offensive juggernauts seasons, to basically get an upgrade at 3B and some extra PAs at 2B to supplement Lajoie's short season. Really really stupid pick. It's all downhill from here.

I was hoping either 1980 or 1981 would get back to me this round and both did. I kept going back and forth on which team to take. I finally landed on the 1981 Athletics, mainly because I liked the '81 versions of Rickey Henderson (.319, .412, .443, A++) and Dwayne Murphy (.251, .373, .413, A++) better than the '80 versions. I will admit that '80 Norris is better than '81 Steve McCatty (2.45). RP Tom Underwood (3.02) is underwhelming. My fifth player Wayne Gross is simply a backup 3B, who will never play.

Due to my incompetence, my roster still has a bunch of holes. 1944 Athletics provides me my first decent RP, Joe Berry (1.65) and since I still need more innings, I add Russ Christopher (3.10). I get my other half of my catching platoon, Hal Wagner (.330, .417, .452). Dick Siebert (.306, .389, 438) replaces McInnis at 1B. And Bobby Estalella (.298, .376, 424) can play defense at 1B and OF. So while all the other A's teams have guys like Foxx and Simmons, I got Dick Siebert and Dwayne Murphy starting. This is going to be a disaster.

Since I have no real power, I might as well go all out and try to build a good on-base-percentage team. 1951 Athletics gives me three starters, with 1B Ferris Fain (.344, .444, .471), SS Eddie Joost (.289, .402, 462) and OF Elmer Valo (.302, .405, .446). Gus Zernial (.274, .344, 526) is a pinch hitter who doesn't walk or hit for average, so I'm sure that will work out well. And he's a scary thought. Sam Zoldak (2.89) is my team's fifth best pitcher.

Outlook:
I have 16 teams and only 8 can advance. This team will be one of the eight that doesn't advance. Somehow, I drafted a team with a really bad offense and bad pitching. I have three decent SPs, one good RP, and the rest of the staff sucks. I do have a very good defense, and that's basically it. Probability that this team advances to round 2 is probably less than 5%.

Finally my pre-season prediction on my A's team is accurate. After an unlikely 26-12 start, this team is now my worst team at 62-71, although the team still has a .516 Exp Win% (4th best in A.L.). A tournament worse 9-27 record in 1-run games hasn't helped matters.

Posted by footballmm11 on 2/20/2024 6:37:00 PM (view original):
I didn't give expected advancement odds, but here's my 36-game update with some commentary:

VERY GOOD: 8 teams
8 of my 15 teams are at 22-14 or better (over 60% win%) AND have an expected win% of 55% or better. Except for my Giants (1 GB of juice), all are in 1st Place.

CHW 1916-1963-1994-1986-1935	25-11	1st Place
BOS 2018-1903-1948-1975-2017	25-11	1st Place
PHI 1980-2021-1933-1920-1943	24-12	1st Place
CLE 2017-2022-1922-1912-1949	23-13	1st Place
SFG 2003-1903-2015-1994-1962	22-14	2nd Place
CHC 1909-2021-1928-1984-1967	22-14	1st Place
DET 1935-1945-1903-2023-1925	22-14	1st Place
MIN 1915-1924-1970-2013-1978	22-14	1st Place

ON THE BUBBLE: 6 teams
I have 6 teams between records of 16-20 (.444) to 19-17 (.528). They all have Exp% around 50% as well, except for the Reds who are .400 x% but 6-3 in 1-run games. My Cardinals team, as schwarze mentioned earlier, has not hit great despite my very high expectations for the offense. They have scored more lately, but still far short of expectations. Only one of these teams, the Dodgers, would currently advance. They are in 1st Place (barely) in a bad division.

LAD 2021-2016-1954-2017-2001	19-17
NYY 1930-2017-1981-2022-2004	18-18
STL 2004-1953-1970-1917-2016	18-18
ATL 1994-2012-2022-1973-1951	17-19
BAL 1991-1973-1925-1993-1978	16-20
CIN 1923-1939-1965-2012-2022	16-20

NOT GOOD: 1 team
After a promising 6-1 start, my A's team has just cratered, going 7-22 since. We've had 3 separate losing streaks of at least 5 games and a .409 Exp% to prove we're not competitive. The offense is last in the league and the pitching has been slightly above average but nowhere near good enough to make up for the poor hitting.

OAK 2020-2019-1904-1969-1941

13-23

VERY GOOD: 8 teams
8 of my 15 teams are: (a) at least 10 games over .500, (b) have an Exp% at least .525 and (c) are very likely to advance. All are in 1st place currently, except for the Giants. San Francisco has a tough league overall and I'm in a tough division, so they're probably the one team out of this group with the biggest risk of not advancing, but I think all 8 likely get through.

From my 36-game update, 7 of the 8 teams are the same, with the White Sox dropping out and the Dodgers sliding in.

CHC 1909-2021-1928-1984-1967	95-48	1st Place
PHI 1980-2021-1933-1920-1943	89-54	1st Place
CLE 2017-2022-1922-1912-1949	88-55	1st Place
MIN 1915-1924-1970-2013-1978	88-55	1st Place
DET 1935-1945-1903-2023-1925	84-59	1st Place
SFG 2003-1903-2015-1994-1962	79-64	2nd Place
LAD 2021-2016-1954-2017-2001	77-66	1st Place
BOS 2018-1903-1948-1975-2017	77-66	1st Place

ON THE BUBBLE: 6 teams
After my top 8, there's a pretty big gap to my next group of teams. These 6 are mostly .500 and slightly below (my CHW are barely above!) and also mostly out of the playoffs. The one exception there is my Yankees team who is winning a bad division, but it likely won't matter anyway as they'll be one of my lowest qualifying teams and likely outside my top 8 so they'll be dropped.

The White Sox have been the most disappointing of late, though their Exp% is by far the best of this group. My Cardinals team also has been disappointing overall--they were very bad early, as I mentioned in my earlier update...then had a great run to get a few games above .500, but have struggled again of late.

As for advancement, if any of these teams do make it they're likely dropped, though I may need 1 or 2 from this group if things go south with a couple of my top 8 teams. The Yankees, as I mentioned are in good shape due to their division. The CHW are also probably more likely than not to be top 6. Both STL and OAK may advance by virtue of being in a weak league. The Braves and Orioles, however, are unlikely to advance.

CHW 1916-1963-1994-1986-1935	72-71	3rd Place
ATL 1994-2012-2022-1973-1951	71-72	4th Place
NYY 1930-2017-1981-2022-2004	70-73	1st Place
STL 2004-1953-1970-1917-2016	70-73	3rd Place
OAK 2020-2019-1904-1969-1941	69-74	2nd Place
BAL 1991-1973-1925-1993-1978	68-75	4th Place

NOT GOOD: 1 team
For most of the season now, this Reds team has been by far the worst of my squads. They simply can't score--dead last among Cincinnati teams in runs. The 60-83 record is 8 games behind my next-worst team and their Exp% is correspondingly the worst as well.

CIN 1923-1939-1965-2012-2022

60-83

3rd Place

I wish there were a built-in WAR calculation so it could be easily determined which draft picks added the most value.