Savage Draft - Draft Strategy Writeups Topic

Posted by schwarze on 3/19/2024 9:02:00 PM (view original):
Midge... "Years ago I got tired of great closers getting shellacked in the 9th inning, so I quit using closers."

Guess what. Nothing has changed. That's why you don't see many true RPs on my teams.
It didn’t take me very much time playing this game before I was totally convinced that sometimes they do something goofy in the 9th inning to increase the chances of a crazy comeback.

I think they do something in basketball too because you see teams blow 20 point leads in the fourth quarter all the time.
3/19/2024 10:16 PM
I think it's more related to modern closers (i.e., <=1 IP/G) reaching 10-15 pitches before getting 3 outs, thus seeing their performance nose-dive. So the choice is for those pitchers stay in the game and throw 20-25 pitches and get bombed or seeing a less-talented RP comes in and gets hit b/c he's not as good.
3/19/2024 10:26 PM
Yeah, that’s another thing, when I first started playing I wanted to set things up like this guy pitches the 7th, that guy pitches the 8th and so on. You couldn’t really do that when they are going by number of pitches and we are going by innings. So I evolved.
3/19/2024 10:44 PM
Posted by Midge on 3/19/2024 10:16:00 PM (view original):
Posted by schwarze on 3/19/2024 9:02:00 PM (view original):
Midge... "Years ago I got tired of great closers getting shellacked in the 9th inning, so I quit using closers."

Guess what. Nothing has changed. That's why you don't see many true RPs on my teams.
It didn’t take me very much time playing this game before I was totally convinced that sometimes they do something goofy in the 9th inning to increase the chances of a crazy comeback.

I think they do something in basketball too because you see teams blow 20 point leads in the fourth quarter all the time.
I don't get the RP conundrumn. Does the engine recognize the lower salary and IP and penalize them.
Is any pitcher below 80 IP suspect and unworthy? Goose Gossage with the Padres did convince Dick Williams
that he would K Kirk Gibson in the WS and that didn't go well. Maybe it's hubris. Maybe WifS engine is built for
early to mid nineteenth century basball.
I really enjoy reading this team evals. Thank you for writing them and I hope sometime soon I can share strategy.
This draft was completely by the seat of my pants. My biggest regret was passing on Boggs at #32. The dude hit
62 doubles one season! That blows my mind!! So I panic and take Seaver instead. Probably way too early at that.
Oh well. I love baseball history so it was a fun draft.
When I was nine yrs old I bought a pack of trading cards titled World Series. It had a card for every world series
played. I was hooked and still can't wait until I'm nine yrs old again. The last year was 1968 with a picture of
Lolich and Gibson on the front. I'm pretty sure the '68 series was all day games. 1969 brought the Pilots to Seattle.
3/19/2024 10:52 PM
I remember those all day World Series games. If you were lucky your teacher brought a portable TV to school and you could watch at least some of it at school.
3/19/2024 11:04 PM
I’m trying to remember, was 1974 the first year they had some World Series games at night? I have a memory of Bill Buckner of the Dodgers getting thrown out at third base trying to go from first to third on a single. I was doing my U.S. History homework at the time.
3/19/2024 11:15 PM
seapilots wanted me to take a look at his teams and give him my two cents, so here we go.

1) Randy Johnson - Randy Johnson was a great baseball pitcher, but real baseball and WIS baseball are two different animals. I would prefer to be in the top half of the draft, 17th isn't the greatest starting position. I don't like the idea of taking a left handed starting pitcher in a draft where it's easy for teams to load their lineup with right handed power hitters. I haven't looked to see how Johnson is doing, but I'm afraid he will give up too many homers. If I was here I would have picked either Addie Joss if I went with a pitcher, or grabbed Ted Williams if I was in the market for a tall, skinny left handed hitter from San Diego.

2) Tom Seaver - Once again, Tom Seaver was a great pitcher, but this is WIS. Back when I played on a regular basis, I don't remember anyone using Tom Seaver. Red flag. Seaver is probably a good pick later in the draft, but this was too early. Babe Adams, Joe DiMaggio and Wade Boggs all went right after this pick and I like all of those picks better than Seaver. I would have gone Adams or DiMaggio here.

3) Charlie Gehringer - I like this pick. Good hitter, good defense up the middle, lots of good years. My third round pick was Johnny Bench and so far he has been awful.

4) Chuck Klein - A great hitter, but from a big hitting era. You have to be careful with guys from 1930 or thereabouts. I think it's more likely that I would have taken Larry Walker or Todd Helton with this pick.

5) Keith Foulke - Personally, I would not want to take a reliever this early in the draft, but that's just me. It seems to me guys were still grabbing good relievers late in the draft. Felix Hernandez was still available here, or a number of good hitters if you want to keep grabbing your starting lineup.

6) Nomar Garciaparra - A couple of (green) monster hitting years if you're going for the best two teams strategy. I'm not thrilled with his defense, if I ever take Garciaparra I would want to get a good defensive sub for late innings.

7) Curt Schilling - Another great pitcher, especially in the post season, but I'm afraid (without looking at his actual stats) that he might feed his pet gopher to often. If I was going to go with a pitcher here I would have looked for a starter who gives up fewer home runs.

8) Earl Averill - A good hitter from the thirties, where everyone hit. If I was going to go hitter here, I would have jumped all over Manny Ramirez.

9) Gary Carter - One of the best catchers from his era. I think I would rather have Yogi Berra in the 10th round than Gary Carter in the 9th round, but if you're going to take a catcher, Gary Carter is a catcher. This is what is fun about a baseball draft league, do I take a pitcher or a player, should I grab a starter or a reliever, should I grab the best hitter available or that middle infielder with a good glove?

10) Pie Traynor - Not a big fan of this pick. I like more power from third base. Al Rosen, who has one great season, went in the 12th round. Ken Caminiti, who has one great season, went in the 14th round. If you can't get one of the real good third basemen early in the draft, I would wait and piece something together later. Then again, maybe he was your mom's uncle and you wanted to have Uncle Pie on your team.

11) Arthur Rhodes - Huston Street - Penny Lane - Maxwell Boulevard - The very next pick was Edgar Martinez, a great designated hitter (FROM SEATTLE!). At this point in the draft I would rather take an every day player or a starting pitcher.

12) Vladimir Guerreo - This is more like it. I like .345 with 44 homers more than I like a relief pitcher. If this was basketball, would you rather have a good shooter who can play 36 minutes per game or a good defender who plays 6 minutes per game? If you want relievers, don't let me stop you. I could be totally wrong on the relievers thing, but when we're drafting I like it when someone else takes a relief pitcher. That just leaves one more starter or position player for me.

13) Mike Mussina - I like this pick. Five usable seasons this late in the draft is nice. I decided I was going to draft Mussina and literally one minute later you took him. I had to settle for Mort Cooper, who at best has maybe three decent season.

14) Felipe Rivero/Vadsquez - Relief pitcher. Phooey. Is he still in jail?

15) Jim Bottomly - Was he the best first baseman available? Wasn't he the guy who had 12 RBI's in one game? I think I would have taken McCovey or Mattingly before Bottomly. I say this without looking at his stats. I would have taken a first baseman before the 15th round.

16) Moises Alou & Mike Jackson - Here we are in the 16th round and there are still good hitters available. If you want a good bullpen, is it possible to pick your nine starting players and four or five good starting pitchers and then start building a bullpen?

17) Chris Hoiles & Octavio Dotel - Hoiles seems like a good partner for Carter and Dotel adds to your bullpen.

18) Joe Sambito & Ben Sheets - Sambito had a lot of good years pitching in that giant TV studio better known as the Astrodome. I remember the name Ben Sheets. I don't remember how good he was. I am not going to look him up. I'm sure that Ben was a fine young man and will greatly improve the overall quality of your ball clubs. Not as much as Orville Overall would have, but hey, it's the 18th round.

19) Melvin Mora & Pete Runnels - If I remember, they both had some decent seasons with the bat. At this point I assume you're picking backups who might have a season where they could start.

20) Charlie Hollocher & Derek Lee - Charlie Hollocher..........Derrek Lee is a pretty nice bat for your last pick. I remember thinking in the last round that there were still guys that I wanted to add to my teams available, but we were out of picks. As tired as I was of updating by round twenty, I might want to add a couple of rounds next time so we can add a player or two to get rid of the $200,000 guys and/or some other dead weight.

My opinion is only my opinion, but I am always glad to hear what other people think of how I did. I think we're all always looking for ways to improve.
3/24/2024 8:03 PM (edited)
Well, it took 36 games, but my five teams now have W-L records that coincide with how strong I expected the teams to be based on how I built them...

Team #1 = 30-6
Team #2 = 21-15
Team #3 = 19-17
Team #4 = 18-18
Team #5 = 17-19
3/31/2024 10:16 PM
I just don’t get the base stealing. I have a Christian Yelich who had 30 SB and 2 CS. For me he is 6 and 4. I have a Juan Soto who had 12 SB and 1 CS. For me he has 1 SB and 2 CS. I don’t set these guys on 5 so they run too much. I also have a Johnny Bench who was 11 and 0. For me, the last time I looked, he was 0 and 2. This seems like it should be an easy thing to get right.

I would prefer some type of setting where you can have your guy attempt a stolen base if the catcher is B+ or worse and he stays at first if the catcher is A- or better. It would also be nice to be able to adjust that if there are two outs and a singles hitter is at bat.
4/7/2024 8:34 PM
I noticed a long time ago that guys with high SB% but low attempts always seems to do *significantly* worse than expected. Guys like '85 Herr. I eventually stopped letting them steal. I wonder if the SB algorithm dings them due to low attempts (similar to how good-hitting pitchers with very low PAs don't come near their real life hitting numbers).

Maybe I will roster a bunch of these guys in the WIS Championship $80M theme. If they do poorly against D+ (and worse) arms, then that's proof that something is broken.
4/7/2024 11:04 PM (edited)
Many years ago I tried using the 57 innings pitched with 0 home runs allowed Andy Rincon as a closer in an Open League. He gave up tons of home runs. I asked them why. They told me that they gave him an average number of home runs allowed per nine innings for that season. I don’t remember what their reasoning was, but I’m sure it was stupid.
4/9/2024 5:26 PM
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