Round 2 Draft Strategy Thread Topic

My favorite part of these drafts - post here.
4/10/2024 12:11 PM
Team: Brewers 1978, 1981, 1989
Ballpark: County Stadium

I had the #2 and #4 overall picks in the Top 8 Draft. Going into round 2, I wanted either 2019 Astros or 1981 Astros. But when footballmm11 took 2019 Astros with the first overall pick, I knew I could wait until pick #4 to take the 1981 Astros since footballmm11 also had pick #3. So that's when I started researching every other franchise. I was mostly looking for franchises with poor pitching that had a team with at least two really good SPs. I narrowed down my two choices to 2011 Angels and 1978 Brewers. Using a 200-inning minimum, the '11 Angels have the two of the top four SPs in Angels history. The '78 Brewers have two of the top eight SPs in Brewers history. The Brewers also have a plethora of useful hitters, so that's the direction I went.

Pick 1.01 - 1978 Brewers
Besides starting pitchers Mike Caldwell (294 ip, 3.41 erc#) and Lary Sorenson (281, 2.91), this team has one RP worth rostering in Bill Castro (50, 2.78). I ended up rostering the team's entire outfield with Larry Hisle (.290 avg#, .375 obp#, .532 slg#), Ben Oglivie (.303, .372, .496, B/A-) and Gorman Thomas (.246, .352, .513). Sixto Lezcano (.292, .379, .458) didn't make the cut. I could have added 3-4 infielders, although Yount and Cooper were eventually replaced with better versions of themselves. Sal Bando (.285, .373, .438, A-/A) will be my starting 3B while super-sub Don Money (.293, .362, .439) will play a little 1B, 2B and 3B.

Pick 2.12 - 1981 Brewers
I really wanted 2016 to add RP depth, but pedrocerrano sniped that season one pick in front of me. Getting sniped one pick away will be a recurring trend for my teams. So, instead of adding RP depth let's add one of the best RP in Brewers history, '81 Rollie Fingers (116, 1.54). He's going to have to pitch in 100 games for me, cause he's the only guy I got that can get outs late in the game. RP Jamie Easterly (93, 2.66) won't give up any HRs but his 5.0 bb/9# could be problematic. A last minute add was SP Pete Vuckovich (223, 3.56). You know this season was good enough to go 14-4 in 1981. He's my SP4, so I'd be happy to get a .500 season from him. I did get two starting batters from this season including a much needed lefty bat in Cecil Cooper (.320, .367, .500, C+/A-). '81 Robin Yount (.273, .316, 424, A/A+) replaces '78 Robin Yount (.293, .325, .427, C/A+) mainly due to his '78 season having only 535 PA. Charlie Moore (.301, .355, .415) will start at catcher vs LHP. Jim Gantner (B/A-) is a defensive replacement 2B. Ed Romero is nothing more than a scrub who can play the infield. Until round 4, light-hitting Ted Simmons was going to make the roster.

Pick 3.01 - 1989 Brewers
Picking back to back is a huge advantage, since I can make sure my two picks mesh well. I couldn't make the 1981 pick, if I was picking in the middle of the draft as it really only added 3-4 pieces. But 1981+1989 fit well together. I got my SP3 with Chris Bosio (235, 2.98) and also added some RP depth, with Dan Plesac (62, 2.40), Mark Kudson (124, 3.10) and Tony Fossas (61, 3.13). I later added Teddy Higuera (136, 3.39) in case I ever need to spot-start a LHP. I also added 2B/3B Paul Molitor (.315, .380, .438, B-/A-), who is similar statistically to 3B Sal Bando. Molitor will probably start at 2B, but I can mix and match Money/Molitor/Bando at 2B/3B depending on which hitters get hot. I also get to clone Robin Yount (.318, .384, .511) and play him in the outfield, moving Gorman Thomas to a backup role. Charlie O'Brien is simply a third string catcher.

Pick 4.12 - 1973 Darrell Porter
I wanted RP Doug Jones, but taxman2008 grabbed him at 4.07. Although any pitcher upgrade would be beneficial, there just weren't any pitchers with enough innings to move the needle. Meanwhile, my main catcher was '81 Ted Simmons (.216, .266., 381). I didn't want two automatic outs in the 8-9 holes, so I decided to upgrade the position. I chose '73 Darrell Porter (.254, .364, .458, A+ arm) over BJ Surhoff (.320, .370, .468, D arm) due to the arm. I've got to keep baserunners on first so my team's solid infield defense can turn some DPs.

Pitching Stats
Best 1450 innings: 2.73 erc#, .240 oav#, 1.14 whip#, 0.48 hr/9#)

Hitting Stats
Including platoons, excluding scrubs: .296 avg#, .365 obp#, .473 slg#, .838 ops#

Outlook:
Without building every other person's roster, it's really hard to know how good my Brewers stack up. I don't have any of the 2020's seasons with all the good short-inning RPs, so my bullpen will probably get destroyed (what else is new?). I do have 3 of the top 20 SPs in Brewers history (150+ ips). My offense looks to be below average when compared to other teams. But my defense should be above average. Feels like 75-80 win team..
4/10/2024 1:58 PM (edited)
Team: Astros 1981, 1981, 1989
Ballpark: Minute Maid Park

Pick 1.02 - 1981 Astros
If I had the #1 overall pick, I may have taken 1981 over 2019 anyway. I hadn't really thought that through yet. 2019 certainly has better hitting, but their SPs are a bit HR prone, which may not be an issue if you end up playing in the Astrodome. Anyway, as most of you know, this 1981 team is loaded with pitching, and unlike the 2020's seasons with short-inning pitchers, this team has 6 very good pitchers (4 SP, 2 RP) totaling over 1100 innings! My starting rotation includes Nolan Ryan (220, 2.16), Don Sutton (234, 2.20), Bob Knepper (231, 2.42) and Joe Niekro (245, 2.97). The two RPs I get aren't wussies... these two guys total over 200 IPs. Those 45-50 inning wimps that can barely throw 10 pitches without fatiguing can kiss my arse. Give me Dave Smith (111, 1.97) and Joe Sambito (94, 2.13) every day. At the time of this pick, I hadn't yet decided which two offensive players would make the cut. As it turns out, I never was able to get a good catcher, so Alan Ashby (.271, .361, .378, A+ arm) is part of my catching platoon. I considered Jeffrey Leonard as my eighth player, but I instead wanted the switch-hitting outfielder Tony Scott (.293, .342, .405, A/A-) since he is going to start as part of an OF platoon. It is my hope, I can get a strong Bagwell, Berkman, Biggio type of season with my next pick. Long wait though.

Pick 2.11 - 2016 Astros
With about eight picks before my turn, all those good hitting seasons were still available. Things are looking good. Then bam... 1997, 2000, 2001, 2003, 2002 all get taken back-to-back-to-back. Crap! Is this going to be another '64 White Sox situation (i.e., good-pitching-can't hit-lose-a-bunch-of-close-games type of team)? I strongly considered taking 1972 b/c they are loaded with offense (but too right-handed and zero pitching help). I was also looking at 2004 and 2006. Although I already had 1100+ strong innings, I wanted more depth. I know footballmm11 loves to grab those 2015+ seasons to load up on quality arms, so I decide to grab 2016 here right in front of him, then take one of 1972, 2004 or 2006 on the way back. Frankly, 2006 fits the best with my needs. Anyway 2016 provides me with RPs Chris Devenski (108, 1.68), Like Gregerson (58, 1.91) and Will Harris (64, 2.13). Note that Pat Neshek (47, 1.82) and his 0.78 IP/G can go f*ck himself. More importantly, 2016 gives me some offense. Jose Altuve (.338, .401, .510, A-/D-) and his poor range will play 2B. Carlos Correa (.274, .365, .430, A-/C+) is one of the better-hitting shortstops in Astros history. George Springer (.261, .363, .436, A/B-) is acceptable and better than anybody from 1981. Evan Gattis (.251, .323, .487, A/A+/A+) is labeled a DH even though he is an awesome defensive catcher. Finally, Luis Valbuena (.260, .361, .438) can cover 1B, 2B, 3B. All-in-all, no complaints with what 2016 brings to the table.

Pick 3.02 - 2006 Astros
As expected, footballmm11 took 2004, leaving me 2006. I get a solid short-season from Roger Clemens (114, 2.15). I can use him in long relief or even spot start him. Chris Sampson (34, 1.69) and Dan Wheeler (72, 2.37) complete a very strong bullpen. The Astros are going to crush the Rangers in interleague play. Offensively, I get my starting 1B, Lance Berkman (.315, .417, .599, B/A-) and my 3B platoon with Morgan Ensberg (.235, .393, .439, B/B+) / Mike Lamb (.307, .358, .452, C-/B-). Also platooning (with Tony Scott) is OF Luke Scott (.336, .426, .621, A+/D-). Since my Scott-OF-platoon only has 607 PA, I needed to add Willy Tavares (.278, .333, .338, B/A) to spot start a couple of games. 2016 and 2006 fit really well together. I still need a starting OF and preferably a left-handed bat.

Pick 4.11 - 1967 Rusty Staub
Bingo! Welcome to the team '67 Rusty Staub (.333, .398, .473, D+/C+). I figured the two stud Jim Wynn's would get selected, and Staub's defense isn't great so there was a chance he'd make it to me. What was a predominantly right-handed team can now start as many as 5 lefty/switch hitters.

Pitching Stats
Best 1450 innings: 2.20 erc#, .216 oav#, 1.07 whip#, 0.34 hr/9#

Hitting Stats
Including platoons, excluding scrubs: .296 avg#, .379 obp#, .472 slg#, .850 ops#

Outlook:
Compared to my Brewers team, this Astros team looks awesome. My guess is that a number of Astros teams will look really good compared to just about any other franchise. My pitching should finish near the top of the league, but my offense is probably average at best. I don't like my team's defense (especially range). I almost never use D- range guys but I needed Altuve's bat. This will ding my pitchers stats a bit. I would like to think this team can win 85-90 games. That should be good enough to advance to round 3, but I don';t think this team will challenge for a top 5 overall record.
4/10/2024 3:56 PM
#1 overall: 2019 Astros
Picking high in a few of these drafts is great. However, you're at two disadvantages. (1) You don't get to pick again for over 20 picks and (2) you pick last in the Free Agent round. That means you better get 8 usable players and you better get some good innings. On the plus side, you do get to pick back-to-back to fill out your 24-man roster, which should be super helpful to make it all fit together. For any of these high picks, I'm not planning on my free agent being anything more than a decent reliever/part-timer or replacement-level starter/outfielder. Not only will I be picking last in that round, but at the time of my last season pick, there will still be 11 seasons selected, so it will be impossible to even know what free agents will still be around.

Well, the 2019 Astros are definitely that. The SP trio of Verlander, Cole, and Greinke are the main attraction, of course. Bregman is a lock as well and can play third or short. There is also optionality on the final four spots. While no more starting pitcher options, there are 3 elite relievers with sub-2.00 ERC and 50+ innings (Osuna, Pressly, Harris). Springer will likely be an OF selection and there are two high-level partials in Correa and Alvarez. While I probably (hopefully?) won't need them, both Gurriel (1B/3B) and Altuve (2B) provide low-level full-time seasons, if necessary.

Post-draft: Pressly and Osuna joined the trio of starters as I rostered 5 pitchers. Bregman, Springer, and Correa were the 3 hitters. Was bummed to have to leave off Alvarez.

Round 2, Pick 12: 2004 Astros
Round 3, Pick 1: 1980 Astros

The 2019 team gives such a huge headstart, not just with the pitching but Bregman's 3B/SS eligibility gives some nice flexibility as well. 2004 was the easy pick here as it brings two studs in the 1B/OF with Beltran in CF and Berkman with the ability to play 1B or a corner OF spot. Jeff Kent is a solid 2B as well. I also get to add a 4th starter in Clemens and an elite relief season in Lidge.

My biggest problem at this point is the catching position. There's just not much in Astros history and certainly not any great options on seasons that have other actually useful pieces. I decide to just piece together a catching duo the best I can and maybe I can upgrade with a free agent. In addition to some catching PA, I need one 1B/OF and a platoon-mate for Correa, though that can be a SS or a 3B (with Bregman sliding to SS). I finally settled on 1980, mostly for the pitching. JR Richard has the ridiculous 113 IP and Joe Sambito adds another 90 under 2.00 ERC. Dave Smith and Vern Ruhle give me another 250+ innings with still pretty good quality (sub-3.00 ERC).

The hitting options mostly just plug holes. Cesar Cedeno is the best of them and he'll start alongside Springer and Beltran, moving Berkman to 1B. Terry Puhl is a solid 4th OF and lefty bad with good defense. It's not pretty but Alan Ashby is currently the heavy side of a catching platoon with 2004 Brad Ausmus. That tandem could certainly use a free agent upgrade! Gary Woods is a pinch-hitter extroardinaire (55 PA, .994 OPS#). With my final two spots from 2004, I grabbed two platoon options for the left side of my infield--3B Mike Lamb and SS Adam Everett. I will likely give Lamb the first shot as he's a better hitter, though his D/B- defense alongside Bregman's A/D defense at SS may be less than ideal.

I have 6 1/2 really good starters (Bregman, Beltran, Berkman, Cedeno, Springer, Kent, and Correa). Lamb/Everett is just okay as a platoon-mate and my catching situation is an abomination. I don't need any pitching with over 1500 innings currently slated, so hopefully the catcher free agent comes to fruition, though I'll have to wait until the final pick of the Astros draft. However, I will note that a pretty good Piazza just went with the final FA pick in the Mets draft so maybe most others already have their catching situations figured out.

Post-draft: Only change was that once I got Biggio as a FA, I dropped Ausmus and added Bagwell, though 2004 is far from his best season and he won't do much more than pinch hit.

Round 4, Pick 12: 1991 Craig Biggio
The Astros (along with the Angels) have a pretty terrible collection of catchers. I didn't even have good ones, if you were grading on a curve. Luckily, all the catchers made it to me at the end. It came down to Biggio, 74 Milt May, and 85 Mark Bailey. May is a lefty with an A arm, but only 453 PA. Bailey is a switch-hitter, also has an A arm, plus a nice .395 OBP, but even fewer PA at 402. The downsides for Biggio are C- arm, right-handed hitter, and less slugging. The positives, however, are 64 speed (always nice to not have that 40s catcher speed) and 609 PA, meaning I don't have to get 1/3 of a season from Ashby or Ausmus.

Post-draft analysis
Park: Minute Maid Park
Clone: none
The 2019 Astros are loaded all over. I could have taken 12 or 13 players from their team. In particular, the SP trio is a huge draw--I have them ranked as the 2nd, 4th, and 6th-best in franchise history. I will be shocked if this isn't the best staff in the league, as I was also able to add 1980 JR Richard, a couple good reliever in 04 Lidge and 80 Sambito, and even a solid 04 Clemens.

The offense should be serviceable, though not spectacular. There are certainly better Killer Bs out there than my versions of Bagwell, Biggio, Berkman, Beltran, and Bregman (though I have pretty good versions of all except Bagwell). My weakest spot is either 2B (Kent) or the other half of my Correa platoon (either Lamb or Everett).

I'd be shocked if this team doesn't win 90+ games and comfortably advance to the next round. Hopefully they'll live up to their #1 pick billing.
4/10/2024 4:27 PM
#3 overall: 2020 Padres
The 2020 seasons constantly pop up and for the Padres it's a good one. Dinelson Lamet is arguably the best Padres starting pitcher. Trevor Rosenthal only has 27 IP/162 but it comes with a 0.28 ERC! Zach Davies likely makes it as another starter and there are a couple more relief options with sub-2 ERC (Pomeranz, Clevinger).

Two stud hitters at tougher-to-fill infield positions are locks--Machado at 3B and Tatis Jr. at SS. Beyond them, no studs, but some solid variety depending on needs later on--Wil Myers great bat, Grisham great glove, Cronenworth plays all 4 infield spots, Nola behind the plate, etc.

Post-draft: I ended up taking Grisham over Myers, despite Myers better bat. I didn't need Cronenworth or Nolan, which is good because I may not have been able to squeeze them in.

Round 2, Pick 12: 1990 Padres
Round 3, Pick 1: 2011 Padres

Need to fill out the lineup, outside of 3B/SS, and get another 1000 innings. 1990 is the first team that jumped out to me. Robby Alomar is one of the best remaining 2B. Bip Roberts is multi-positional but I'll play him in the OF along with Tony Gwynn. Jack Clark has a monster hitting season (.978 OPS#) with 442 PA at 1B. I also get a reasonable half-time catcher in Benito Santiago. I also ended up rostering Joe Carter, despite his .293 OBP# as he's A+/A+ defense at 1B and B+/A- in the OF with 85 speed...should be a nice bench piece. Just as important, I get two solid big-inning starters in Bruce Hurst and Ed Whitson, combining for over 450 innings and ERC under 3.00.

My offense is pretty much set at this point, though I still need some catcher at-bats and to figure out the final pieces of my 1B/OF puzzle, though I have options there. Mostly, though, I need about another 500 innings of pitching. 2011 has 5 pitchers under 3.00 ERC and they total...get this...EXACTLY 500 innings. Not that that's some magic number I needed, but seemed cool. Anyway, Latos and Luebke have the bigger inning totals (334 combined), Mike Adams is the stud reliever, and Heath Bell and Josh Spence bring along two more solid bullpen arms.

The main hitter I need from 2011 is catcher Nick Hundley, 308 PA with A-rated arm and solid .825 OPS bat. I looked at Cameron Maybin but preferred Trent Grisham from 2020 in centerfield, and I already have Joe Carter as a low-OBP defensive speedster, so I left him off. Orlando Hudson made it though Alomar doesn't really need much of a backup, Hudson is a better fielder so can sub late in games. Jesus Guzman can hit...when Clark needs to rest I'll have to decide between Guzman's bat and Carter's glove at 1B.

Not sure on free agent needs, probably just a reliever again given I'll have last pick in that round.

Round 4, Pick 12: 2000 Trevor Hoffman
I was lucky enough, thanks to 2020 and 1990, to get 4 good starters such that there wasn't even a free agent SP that would be an upgrade. Among the hitters, there were no substantial upgrades at any of the IF positions, including catcher. The best I could do in the OF would be Johnny Grubb or Mark Kotsay over Tony Gwynn, which was a tiny upgrade.

That led me to just take the best relief innings I could get. Mostly here I'm upgrading on a still-relatively-useful Mat Latos or Heath Bell. Hoffman is an upgrade, however. At the very least, he'll replace Bell's 2.61 ERC with 1.95 and a substantially lower walk rate.

Post-draft analysis
Park: Jack Murphy Stadium
Clone: none

Very happy with the #3 overall pick here. With the addition of Grisham in CF, 2020 gave me 3 up-the-middle starters, my ace, and my closer (plus a #2 starter and two more setup arms). 1990 ended up being a perfect fit, getting two solid starters to complete the rtoation and 4 1/2 starting position players that fit perfectly around Tatis and Machado. That allowed a luxury pick in 2011 to mostly get a catcher and a quartet of relief pitchers.

I debated putting this team in Petco, but felt the staff didn't need the help that much and it might hurt Machado, Tatis, and Clark, my main power hitters. Given they are all right-handed and Jack Murphy is more favorable to LF power (even) than RF (-1), I decided to go with the more neutral park.

Once again, my pitching should be the strong suit and probably the strongest in the league. My outfield is the weak spot, though I do have the 23rd, 28th, and 45th ranked OFers, so not terrible. My infield is a strenght, with Machado and Tatis top of their position and both Alomar and Clark above average. I'd hope for around 90 wins and a rather comfortable advancement.
4/10/2024 6:51 PM
Team: Angels 1982, 1972, 2018
Ballpark: Anaheim Stadium

Pick 1.04 - 1982 Angels
I have the fourth pick in League 2, and the first two picks are 2020 Angels and 1964 Angels. Surely njbigwig will take the best Mets season and guarantee himself back-to-back picks in rounds 2-3, right? Then my strategy to take 1978 Brewers over 2011 Angels as the #2 overall pick will have paid off. Nope. He sticks that knife right in the gut. Now what do I do? Well, I come up with a unique strategy. In past leagues, I am always amazed at how effective Nolan Ryan's high-walk seasons tend to be in the sim (despite not so great ERC# numbers). My thinking is that if I can grab one or two high-walk low-oav Nolan Ryan seasons and put great hitting and strong defense behind it, maybe that will turn into a winning formula. That's why I took 1982. From this roster, I end up getting six starters - C Bob Boone (.256, .311, .328 A+ arm), 1B Rod Carew (.319, .397, .393, B-/A+), 2B Bobby Grich (.261, .371, .438, B+/A), 3B Doug DeCinces (.301, .369, .537, B/A+), OF Fred Lynn (.299, .375, .506, A-/B), OF Brian Downing (.281, .369, .471, A+/C). Reggie Jackson (.275, .376, .522, C/D-) was also part of the original starting lineup but was replaced later - he still makes the team as a spot starter and pinch hitter. The only pitcher to make the roster is long RP, Bruce Kison (142, 2.98)

Pick 2.09 - 1972 Angels
So now I am looking at all of the Nolan Ryan teams. All his 1970's teams are still available. 1972 has the most usable innings from other pitchers (plus has one of the best Ryan seasons). I also really like 1965 due to 800 decent innings along with a stud SS (stud being relative to the Angels history) which I badly needed. I also like 1981 (i.e,. Forsch, Burleson).

Since it's likely one of 1965 or 1981 makes it back to me, I go with 1972. I just couldn't pass up 1100 innings, given that I got almost no pitching with my first round pick. 1972 gives me three good SPs: Nolan Ryan (297, 2.57), Andy Messersmith (178, 2.52), Rudy May (215, 3.04) and one not-so-great SP in Clyde Wright (263, 3.43) plus one RP Steve Barber (61, 2.51). The hitting on this team is pretty worthless, which is why I probably could have waited. John Stephenson and Jack Hiatt are two backup catchers with low-PA, both who hit better than Boone. My last player is a backup 1B, Bob Oliver, to spell Carew a few games.

Pick 3.04 - 2018 Angels
Crap, crap, CRAP! njbigwig does it to me again. He takes 1965. Then footballmm11 takes 1981. Now I have no SS. Of course, all the other Nolan Ryan seasons make it back to me. I start scrambling to find a shortstop. I have 1250 innings, so pitching isn't an issue. The best SS I find is 2018 Andrelton Simmons (.292, .337, .417, A/A) so that's the main reason I took this season. Oh, they also have a stud Mike Trout (.312, .460, .628). Wait, don't I already have three starting OFs? Yes, but I didn't feel comfortable starting Reggie and is D- range. Let's go all-in on having great defense everywhere. What else does this team give me? Not much. Three RPs, Taylor Cole (36, 1.85), Jose Alvarez (63, 2.51) and Shohei Otani (52, 2.88). The other three players are defensive replacements and not even worth mentioning. That 1972 pick in round 2 was a critical mistake. I should have taken 1965, then if 1972 gets picked, I simply take 1976 with 570 innings of Ryan and Tanana. Stupid.

Pick 4.09 - 2010 Jered Weaver
Well, at least we salvaged some pitching in the player draft. The 1976 season lasted until pick 35 - what a steal (if you needed innings). Starting pitchers '75 Tanana, '73 Ryan and '89 Blyleven all got taken in the player draft. I was hoping to get Blyleven (for his low HR) but am happy to get '10 Jered Weaver (224, 2.54). He immediately becomes my best SP. I have no decent RP so I'm going to have to use guys in tandems. What an clusterf*ck of a pitching staff.

Pitching Stats
Best 1450 innings: 2.77 erc#, .217 oav#, 1.19 whip#, 0.56 hr/9#

Hitting Stats
Including platoons, excluding scrubs: .291 avg#, .374 obp#, .464 slg#, .838 ops#

Outlook:
This team's only hope to be an above-500 team is if their defense is ranked #1 in the league. Even with that, I wouldn't be surprised if this team has a poor record in 1-run games and/or blows a lot of late-inning leads. The offense should be above average but the pitching will be way below average. Feels like a 73-76 win team, pretty much what Nolan Ryan's Angels teams were.
4/10/2024 7:21 PM (edited)
#5 overall: 2017 Nationals
Scherzer and Strasburg are both top 10 starters for the Nationals/Expos franchise. Gio Gonzalez may join them in the rotation as well. Ryan Madson is an elite reliever and if needed he can partner with Matt Albers and/or Sean Doolittle in the pen.

The infield could be covered if I want, with Murphy (2B), Rendon (3B), and Turner (SS) all having top-10 franchise seasons. Harper likely takes up a corner outfield and heart-of-the-order spot. Hopefully can do better but some downstream options like Michael A. Taylor (B/A) who could man CF if needed, or Zimmerman who can bash but not field at 1B.

Post-draft: I ended up rostering Harper, Murphy, and Rendon, but had to leave Turner's partial season off. That allowed me to then roster 3 relievers in addition to the two stud starters.

Round 2, Pick 12: 1980 Expos
Round 3, Pick 1: 2012 Nationals

I originally had a spreadsheet error and thought I would be adding 2020 Nationals with their stud Soto + Trea Turner seasons, but alas they had been taken. I had already earmarked 1980 as a good fit. Gary Carter is a top 5 catcher and Andre Dawson has a great centerfield season. Steve Rogers has a solid season with 281 innings and Woodie Fryman has a nice relief season. That fills some key holes. There are some varying depth pieces here, depending on how many innings I need.

For my other season, I'd like to upgrade on 1B (1980 Warren Cromartie is fine, but not great), SS (2017 Trea Turner is good, but freeing up a 2017 spot would be great as there are tons of great options), and OF. I also need a few hundred innings and if I can get a little extra, I can drop 2017 Gio Gonzalez and grab another of the elite relievers like Matt Albers (1.67 ERC). 2012 ended up being the choice. Unlike the 2020 studs I thought I was getting, there aren't any elite hitters here, but I do get my starting 1B (LaRoche, #5 in franchise history), SS (Desmond, #8), and an OF platoon with Harper (not his best season, but he'll be my clone) and Werth. For pitching, I get a much better Gio Gonzalez (allowing me to drop 2017 Gio) and a couple more bullpen arms.

Obviously, will be picking last among the free agents, but don't have a huge need that has to be filled. Unless some unanticipated player falls, this is likely just a spot to take the best relief innings left.

Round 4, Pick 12: 2005 Chad Cordero
Was hoping one of the better relievers would fall, but Peralta, Clippard and Murray all got snatched up before me. There are some good hitters left, such as Vlad Guerrero, but none are substantial enough upgrades on my starters. I narrowed it down to 2005 teammates Cordero and Hector Carrasco. Cordero has the higher HR numbers while Carraso has higher BB totals. I went with Cordero for no particularly strong reason.

Post-draft analysis
Park: Nationals Stadium
Clone: Bryce Harper

The pitching should be the class of the league. Scherzer, Strasburg, and Gonzalez are all top 10 starters. The pen should be very strong with 6 relievers (Madson, Doolittle, Albers, Storen, Cordero, and Fryman) all below 2.20 ERC.

I didn't end up with any of the top 20 hitters in Expos/Nationals history, but I got a bunch in the next wave. 2017 Harper, Dawson, Murphy, Carter, and Rendon are all top-50 guys. Desmond and LaRoche are top 10 at weak positions. It should be a balanced and deep lineup with solid defense and speed all around. Again, feeling good and simliar to my other top 5 picks, I expect this one to be among the top few Expos teams and advance, hopefully near the top of the board.
4/11/2024 3:52 PM (edited)
Team: Royals 1993, 1975, 1983
Ballpark: Royals Stadium

Pick 1.03 - 1993 Royals
I had the 8th pick in League 3. The first five picks were Expos/Nationals. The first two Royals picks were 1972 and 1979. I didn't see an Expos/Nationals team that stood out, so I decided to go with a Royals team. The knee-jerk reaction here would be to take 1980. '80 George Brett and '80 Willie Wilson are the two most expensive hitters in the Royals database. My rankings have 1980 as the KC season with the most usable salary. They really have no stud pitchers, but they do have 4 pitchers totaling 885 innings with ERC# below 3.40. After seeing how bad my offense is, I kind of wish I had taken 1980.

Anyway, 1993 has five usable pitchers... Kevin Appier (239, 2.12) is a stud and a favorite of mine. David Cone (254, 3.07) is top 20 Royals SP. Jeff Montgomery (88, 1.77), Stan Belinda (70, 2.89) and Tom Gordon (156, 3.00) round out 800 very solid innings. The offense isn't great, but I got three strong defensive players in OF Brian McRae (.280, .321, 400, B/A-), SS Greg Gagne (.278, .315, .393, A/C+) and C Mike MacFarlane (.271, .356, .484, A+ arm). Yep, now you see why I should've taken 1980.

Pick 2.10 - 1975 Royals
Starting with B.McRae, Gagne and MacFarlane on offense isn't going to scare any pitchers, so I need hitting, badly. This 1975 team gets me four starting batters, all who are better hitters than the slop I got from 1993. 1975 John Mayberry (.293, .417, .549, C/B+) will be my team's best hitter. The other starting batters include 3B George Brett (.310, .354, .458, C+/B), OF Hal McRae (.309, .367, .443, B/D+) and OF Amos Otis (.249, .342. .387, B+/B+). Catcher Bob Stinson (.268, .346, .362, A+ arm) will platoon with MacFarlane. I get my SP3, Steve Busby (261, 3.05) plus two more RPs, Steve Mingori (51, 2.71) and Marty Pattin (177, 3.23)

Pick 3.03 - 1983 Royals
I still needed a 2B, an OF upgrade and some bullpen help. Let's address the bullpen by grabbing one of the best RPs in franchise history. Dan Quisenberry (139, 1.76) set up Jeff Montgomery nicely. Paul Splittorff (156, 3.56) is a lefty spot starter and probably mostly a mop-up guy. But I'm able to fill three big holes. I am using my clone option on George Brett (.309, .386, .553, D/C+) who will start in the OF (over Amos Otis). Frank White (.259, .284, .397, A/A+) was penciled in as a starter, but after round 4, he will come in for defense. Willie Aikens (.301, .374, .529) is a nice pinch hitter. Butch Davis (.342, .360, .499, C/A-) can pinch hit and come in for defense in the OF. Don Slaught (.310, .336, .379) gives me an offensive minded catcher. UL Washington is my only backup SS and is actually a worse hitter than Gagne.

Pick 4.10 - 2019 Whit Merrifield
While I preferred Jose Offerman (who went early), I am very happy to get Whit Merrifield (.308, .352, .433, B-/A+), who is a big offensive upgrade over Frank White, while not losing much defensively.

Pitching Stats
Best 1450 innings: 2.70 erc#, .229 oav#, 1.16 whip#, 0.47 hr/9#

Hitting Stats
Including platoons, excluding scrubs: .291 avg#, .358 obp#, .455 slg#, .812 ops#

Outlook:
I'm guessing many Royals teams aren't going to look that great. I hope others post their team's normalized stats for easy comparison. I do have 3 of the top 22 KC starting pitchers and the back end of the bullpen is very strong. My defense is above average. Not sure how the offense will do. I think this team can finish over .500 and possibly get to 90 wins if we get lucky in 1-run games. Fun fact: I'll have both Hal and Brian McRae in my starting lineup.
4/10/2024 9:05 PM (edited)
#7 overall: 2010 Rangers
While my first 3 picks were pretty easy to settle on, I struggled with this pick. Milwaukee has a couple great pitching years (2020 and 2021) but not much hitting in either. I looked at a couple Royals and Angels seasons as well. I settled on the 2010 Rangers because there's not many other seasons that can cover 8 spots and provide a little bit of value all over the diamond.

Pitching (and starting pitching, in particular) is in short supply in Texas. While Cliff Lee, CJ Wilson, and Colby Lewis have their issues (homer-prone, walk-prone, etc.), they each provide 200+ innings at a top-25 level, with Lee a true (Rangers) ace. Feliz and/or O'Day may join them in the pen.

The main attraction on the hitting side is Josh Hamilton, though Nelson Cruz brings power, speed, and A- range as well. Outfield is not the hardest position to fill, but getting two top-5 studs is always useful. After that, I have the option of Kinsler and/or Andrus in the middle infield, if wanted. Neither is elite, but both would be serviceable at least.

Post-draft: If you want to see how much I regretted this choice, check out my Brewers write-up. As for this team though, I ended up rostering the 3 hitters--Hamilton, Cruz, and Kinsler--and the 5 pitchers mentioned above.

Round 2, Pick 12: 2001 Rangers
Round 3, Pick 1: 1961 Senators

2010 was heavy on pitching but light on hitting, especially at premium positions. Enter 2001 with arguably the #1 A-Rod season at SS and a very good I-Rod at C (only 470 PA, but teammate Doug Mirabelli will join him). Not Palmeiro's best season but he'll be fine at 1B. And I get two interesting and flexible utility seasons from Frank Catalanotto and Randy Velarde. Between them, about 850 PA--Velarde can play 2B or 3B and Catalanotto can play 3B, OF, or 1B. At this point, I don't need Andrus so I lock in Kinsler's 460 PA from 2010 at 2B. Not much pitching here, but Jeff Zimmerman will bring a bullpen arm, albeit a homer-prone one.

Depending on where Catalanotto goes, I either need 3B or corner OF at-bats, assuming Kinsler and Velarde handle 2B duties. And most importantly, I need about 500-600 innings. Pitching is not the strong suit of the Rangers/Senators franchise. I looked a bit at 2020, which would have been Lance Lynn (also homer-prone) and a bunch of relievers, but the hitting options were non-existent and the inning volume wasn't quite there. 1961 fit much better, led by Dick Donovan (170 IP, 2.15 ERC). Bennie Daniels and Tom Sturdivant, both with ERC in the low-3s, fill out the remaining competitive innings. I did end up grabbing Joe McClain to give an innings buffer.

The hitting options aren't fantastsic, but they cover a lot of ground. Given my free agent pick will likely be a hitter but comes at the very end of the draft, the flexibility will be helpful. Gene Woodling is probably the gem of the group and his 399 PA, left-handed bat, and .400+ OBP will be a great platoon in RF. Bob Johnson is a utility IF with ratings at SS, 3B, and 2B--his best defense is at shortstop, but of course with A-Rod, he won't play there so we'll use his C-level ratings at the other two spots. Currently, he'll platoon probably with Catalanotto at 3B, but the free agent will likely force him to a bench utility role. The last two spots will be some combination of filler between Willie Tasby (B/A- in the OF), Jim King (big bat, poor fielding), Danny O'Connell (good OBP, no power, A+ range at 3B), and Ken Retzer (only 58 PA, but great hitting and can play catcher).

Most likely, I'm guessing I'll go with a 3B with my free agent. The extra flexibility may allow me to take someone like 2017 Beltre who only has 389 PA but one of the best per-PA players out there. 2017 probably gets taken as a season, but if not he may slide to the end of the FA draft.

Round 4, Pick 12: 1980 Buddy Bell
I knew I was likely to go 3B here and the top two free agents were both still available. It came down to 2014 Adrian Beltre against Bell. Beltre had a higher OBP and more PA, but Bell has the A/A fielding (compared to B+/B- for Beltre). With Bob Johnson, Velarde and Catalanotto all having 3B ratings, I can easily support Bell who only has 538 PA.

Post-draft analysis
Park: Griffith Stadium
Clone: none

I'm really not making use of the clone option so far. Oh well. I spent some time looking at the stadium options. While I do have some power (A-Rod, Palmeiro, Hamilton), I think there's a lot of power in the Senators/Rangers franchise. Some of my pitchers are homer-prone. And frankly, with my 1961 pick giving me exclusive rights to Griffith, I felt like I just needed to do it. We'll see how it goes.

I ended up putting my 4 starters into two tandems since I had two lefties (Wilson, Lee) and two righties (Daniels, Lewis). I don't feel like I got great use out of this Top 8 pick. 2010 certainly helped with pitching but I had to spend a pick almost solely to fill out the offense. Maybe A-Rod and Hamilton can carry the offense, but the rest seems more solid than great. The pitching is good and maybe I'm just underrating it because the Rangers don't historically have a ton of pitching. I'll guess around 85 wins--a bit above average but not dominant. In contention for the wild card spot.
4/11/2024 3:52 PM (edited)
schwarze, are you doing a PA/IP-weighted average for your team's normalized stats?
4/10/2024 9:09 PM
League 1, Pick 12: At this juncture 6 Astros teams and 5 Rangers teams were gone. I was pretty worried about the depth of Rangers pitching and decided it was best to dip into the Astros pool and see if I can put enough good pieces together.
1986 Astros: The attraction here was Mike Scott's 276 magnificent innings, along with two other useful SP in Nolan Ryan and Bob Knepper. I also rostered three RP here in Dave Smith, Charlie Kerfeld, and Danny Darwin, so that's 917 good innings with plenty of useful offenses still on the board for me in Round 2. Only platoon 3B Denny Walling and OF Kevin Bass made it among the hitters.
2003 Astros: Calhoop took the 2000 'Stros a couple picks before my slot, and I would have preferred them. But I had 2003 rated pretty high based on my needs. I get virtually an entire starting lineup here: 1B Jeff Bagwell, 2B Jeff Kent, SS Julio Lugo, 3B Morgan Ensberg, OF Richard Hidalgo, and OF Lance Berkman. Works for me! Oh, did I mention two great RP in Billy Wagner and Octavio Dotel? This felt like a great pick.
1969 Astros: At this point, I could use another SP and a CF as well as a catcher who isn't terrible. Well, I got 2 out of 3 here. Larry Dierker is a second stud to pair with Scott atop the rotation, and Jimmy Wynn and his super OBP topping the lineup. I also get two middle infield depth pieces I need in Joe Morgan and Dennis Menke, because my 2003 starters are under 600 PA. As for catching, well I do get Johnny Edwards and his A+ arm (48% CS). Someone has to bat 8th, I suppose.
FA: I was hoping either the 88 Scott or 2010 Oswalt might fall to me, and thankfully Oswalt did. He gives me 212 IP with a 2.34 ERC#, darn good for my 3rd starter. This pushes Ryan and Knepper to the back of the rotation and long duty, which is all just fine with me.
Outlook: This looks like a pretty solid squad all around, probably my favorite of my four teams this round. I'd like to think they have a strong shot at advancing, but of course division alignment could prove hazardous to our chances.
4/10/2024 9:10 PM
Posted by footballmm11 on 4/10/2024 9:09:00 PM (view original):
schwarze, are you doing a PA/IP-weighted average for your team's normalized stats?
Yes, basically.

For hitters, I assign each player a usage% so each position adds up to 100%. I don't use PA exactly, b/c it doesn't make sense to weight a guy with 750 PA more than a guy with 700 PA. I assume both play players will play 100% at their respective positions. If a guy has 600 PA, I will give him 90% weight and a backup 10% weight.

For IP, I use straight Innings as weight. If my total is 1500, I'll cut 50 innings off my worst pitcher.
4/10/2024 9:29 PM
ok i'll try to do that for my teams
4/10/2024 10:29 PM
Team: Mets 2008, 1975, 2016
Ballpark: Shea Stadium

Pick 1.08 - 2008 Mets
In league 2, the first four teams selected were the Angels. Seven of the next nine picks were Mets. Since I already had my Angels team, I was locked into taking a Mets team at pick #14. Although it was tempting to grab one of those 1970's Tom Seaver Mets teams, I felt like there were enough Tom Seaver seasons where I could get one in round 2. I started looking at Mets teams with a lot of offensive starters. 2008 was perfect. This season gives me four starting batters - 1B, 2B, 3B and OF, all with at least 686 PAs! No need for backups. These include Carlos Delgado (,272 .352, .502, B/B-), David Wright (.303, .389, .518, B/B-), Jose Reyes (.298, .356, .459, B/C) and Carlos Beltran (.285, .375, .484, A/A+). Plus, I get half my catching platoon with Brian Schneider (.258, .338, .352, B+/A+/B+). Ryan Church (.277, .345, .423, A/B) gives me a backup OF and defensive replacement. Not only did this season fill 4.5 starting positions, but I even get a solid SP, Johan Santana (234, 2.78) and a stud reliever, Billy Wagner (47, 1.58). Considering this was the eighth Mets team selected, I am very pleased.

Pick 2.05 - 1975 Mets
I had my eye on 2000 Mets, but pedrocerrano took them 2 picks in front of me. I guess it's time to get some pitching. This season allows me to add two SPs, one RP and 2-3 more starting position players. Tom "Terrific" Seaver (281, 2.33) should be in the Cy Young race. I didn't know it at the time, but Jon Matlack (229, 3.22) is the team's worst SP. The three RPs are Ken Sanders (43, 1.87), Skip Lockwood (49, 2.11) and Bob Apodaca (85, 2.29). 2B Felix Milan (.285, .330, .354, C/C-) is my worst hitter but will only play about 1/3 of the time. Rusty Staub (.285, .372, .455, C+/B-) will play one of the corner OF spots. Jerry Grote (.298, .358, .380, A/A/A-) will share time behind the plate. Things are going very well so far. I have 1000 innings and 7 starting batting spots.

Pick 3.08 - 2016 Mets
I probably could have made a better pick here. I didn't need much, so I should have maximized getting the biggest impactful player. Instead, I picked a team that gave me a decent (not great) third outfielder, Yoenis Cepsedes (.284, .357, .515, C+.B-). I get an upgrade at 2B, albeit with only 458 PA, with Neil Walker (.286, .351, 460, B+/C-). I get three decent RPs, Addison Reed (78, 1.68), Jeurys Familia (78, 2.38) and Seth Lugo (64, .275). I get a couple one decent SP, Noah Syndergaard (184, 2.73). TJ Rivera is a pinch hitter and backup infielder (.338, .349, .461). Based on who I grabbed in round 4, I don't even need Jacob deGrom (148, 3.33), but don't really have anybody better to take.

Pick 4.05 - 1978 Craig Swan
I didn't really need another SP here. The best RP was Tug McGraw, but I passed on him b/c I haven't had luck with him in other leagues. I have a lot of RP depth, and I wanted to upgrade Matlack, so I grabbed Craig Swan (208, 2.44) even though McGraw's stats are way better than Swan's. Instead, footballmm11 took McGraw four picks after I took Swan. That's why he has has been crushing this tournament.

Pitching Stats
Best 1450 innings: 2.47 erc#, .225 oav#, 1.11 whip#, 0.48 hr/9#

Hitting Stats
Including platoons, excluding scrubs: .287 avg#, .362 obp#, .464 slg#, .825 ops#

Outlook:
This team has decent, but not dominant pitching. Seaver and Swan are both top 20, but Syndergaard and Santana are not even top 30. The defense is not great, maybe slightly below average. The bullpen is deep, which is rare for my teams. I have plenty of extra innings (is this a plus?). The hitting is strong at SS, 3B, but a bit weak at 1B and OF. I should have used my third pick on a dominant player like '87 Daryl Strawberry. This feels like an 81-81 team.
4/10/2024 10:55 PM (edited)
League 2, Pick 6: I was a bit surprised to see four Angels teams go first, and then kstober broke the Mets seal with the excellent 1988 squad. I decided to stick with the Mets for reasons I really can't recall. I'm pretty sure it had to do with better pitching depth, because I hate having to use awful pitchers in my rotation.
2015 Mets: I was doing a lot of research on different teams at the same time, so I'm pretty sure what drew me to these Mets was getting 3 SP and a handful of good RP right off the bat. Jacob DeGrom (2.15 ERC#) and Matt Harvey (2.46) wound up making the rotation, but Noah Syndergaard got squeezed out later. I've also got two low-inning, low-ERC# RP in Erik Goeddel and Logan Verrett (I swear I never heard of him before) and a stout Jeurys Familia as well. The attraction on offense here pretty much starts and stops with Yoenis Cespedes, but I'll also get a good platoon C in Travis D'Arnaud and an IF piece in Daniel Murphy.
1997 Mets: It was time to get some offense here, which I knew kstober would also need after taking his 88 Mets to start. I felt I could save my pitching-heavier pick for my next choice instead. This netted me starters/platoon guys in C Todd Hundley, 1B John Olerud, 3B Edgardo Alfonzo, OF Lance Johnson, and OF Butch Huskey. SP Rick Reed (2.50) and a couple decent relievers in John Franco and Greg McMichael are nice bonuses for a team taken primarily for bats.
1990 Mets: This pick pulled in the pitching depth I needed to be able to focus on hitters with my FA pick. SP Sid Fernandez, David Cone, and Frank Viola are all useful, and Wally Whitehurst is another body in the pen. From the offense, I'll be starting Darryl Strawberry, mostly wasting Dave Magadan, and sticking Gregg Jefferies into the mix at 2B and 3B. Initially I also had Howard Johnson penciled in at SS, but I really wasn't happy about it.
FA: I might have been tempted by 2023 Francisco Lindor or 2010 David Wright had either fallen to me, but I really couldn't pass up a much better offensive HoJo from 1991. He's a D/A- fielder, so the errors are going to be a source of pain all season. He'd better rack up some homers and put his speed to good use in the heart of the order to make up for it.
Outlook: It's the Mets, so they'll manage to disappoint all of us. I guess I like my pitching staff even without a Seaver. I've got 6 useful SP, so maybe I'll run a trio of tandems out there or something fun like that. I haven't thought it through yet. I should find a way to get Magadan's bat in the lineup, but the defense is already pretty iffy. If we have trouble scoring early on, I might suck it up and get him in there somewhere.
4/10/2024 11:49 PM
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