Round 2 Draft Strategy Thread Topic

Alright, think I got this about right. Here are my team averages for the PA/IP I'll use (I used 1400 instead of 1450 innings, since I have a couple teams short of 1450!)...
PA $/PA AVG# OBP# SLG# OPS#
ANA 5617 $ 9,213 0.307 0.384 0.486 0.870
HOU 5452 $ 9,077 0.302 0.383 0.511 0.894
KCR 5708 $ 7,886 0.305 0.352 0.443 0.795
MIL 5548 $ 7,677 0.281 0.355 0.457 0.812
NYM 5606 $ 7,734 0.291 0.354 0.457 0.812
SDP 5584 $ 8,111 0.286 0.362 0.461 0.823
TEX 5645 $ 8,753 0.307 0.377 0.495 0.872
WSN 5372 $ 8,437 0.299 0.370 0.490 0.860
IP $/IP OAV# WHIP# HR9# ERC#
ANA 1400 $ 31,987 0.212 1.10 0.53 2.45
HOU 1400 $ 38,578 0.199 0.97 0.52 1.96
KCR 1400 $ 36,432 0.202 1.04 0.40 2.18
MIL 1400 $ 32,425 0.205 1.09 0.61 2.45
NYM 1400 $ 34,890 0.219 1.07 0.39 2.38
SDP 1400 $ 39,099 0.196 0.99 0.49 2.00
TEX 1400 $ 30,517 0.211 1.08 0.61 2.47
WSN 1400 $ 35,482 0.205 1.03 0.46 2.14
4/11/2024 8:48 PM
Posted by schwarze on 4/11/2024 8:03:00 PM (view original):
Wow, who knew?
Well, I looked him up once when I used him in a theme, and then by chance I happened to be in a tribal government class where a Lumbee member was speaking. So I had a chance to ask him about Locklear and got more insight into how his fame impacted his tribe. Quite an unlikely life he's led, to be sure.
4/11/2024 8:53 PM
That is interesting. Somehow, now I feel even worse I didn’t take the 75 Padres. I would have helped my pitching staff, blocked schwarze, and gotten Locklear.
I was 98% sure I was going to grab them once 76 and 09 went but then started overthinking it and switched at last second.
4/11/2024 11:27 PM
I recalculated using 1400 innings. Your teams are way better than mine. Most of my teams are strong defensively, so maybe that will lessen the gap...
.
TEAM___ AVG#___ OBP#___ SLG#___ OPS#___
ANA 0.291 0.374 0.464 0.838
HOU 0.296 0.379 0.472 0.850
KCR 0.291 0.358 0.455 0.812
MIL 0.296 0.365 0.473 0.838
NYM 0.287 0.362 0.464 0.825
SDP 0.297 0.370 0.443 0.814
TEX 0.296 0.361 0.471 0.832
WSN 0.291 0.376 0.466 0.843
.
TEAM OAV# WHIP# HR9# ERC#
ANA 0.215 1.18 0.56 2.74
HOU 0.214 1.06 0.34 2.18
KCR 0.228 1.16 0.47 2.68
MIL 0.240 1.14 0.48 2.71
NYM 0.224 1.11 0.47 2.44
SDP 0.227 1.15 0.59 2.77
TEX 0.222 1.15 0.55 2.73
WSN 0.221 1.06 0.67 2.47
4/12/2024 11:00 AM
yeah capturing the defense is tricky. I also think your teams tend to perform better relative to their # numbers, probably because you're much better than me about finding value in the normalization, switch hitters, pitcher usage, etc. stuff that plays better in the sim.

i also picked ahead of you in 6 of the 8 drafts it looks like (MIL and KCR being the exceptions). you probably have the better teams for those two and the NYM, who I ended up not liking my team.
4/12/2024 1:29 PM
I'm guessing that footballmm11's numbers are straight averages rather than weighted averages? I don't see how 1400+ IP of a weighted average 2.45 ERC# is possible for those three Brewers years.

While I'm not going to have time to do any writeups, here are my team weighted average normalized slash lines based on 1400 IP and projected lineup usage:

Brewers: .296/.368/.488, 2.53 ERC#. Defense: bad IF, average OF and C.
Mets: .289/.364/.489, 2.26 ERC#. Defense: mediocre overall
Royals: .298/.363/.485, 2.67 ERC#. Defense: good C, average IF, bad OF.
4/12/2024 4:08 PM
Using his exact roster of Brewers pitchers, I come up with the following weighted averages his best 1400 of his innings...

2.58 erc#
.213 oav#
1.10 whip#
0.64 hr9#


4/12/2024 6:05 PM
Posted by barracuda3 on 4/12/2024 4:08:00 PM (view original):
I'm guessing that footballmm11's numbers are straight averages rather than weighted averages? I don't see how 1400+ IP of a weighted average 2.45 ERC# is possible for those three Brewers years.

While I'm not going to have time to do any writeups, here are my team weighted average normalized slash lines based on 1400 IP and projected lineup usage:

Brewers: .296/.368/.488, 2.53 ERC#. Defense: bad IF, average OF and C.
Mets: .289/.364/.489, 2.26 ERC#. Defense: mediocre overall
Royals: .298/.363/.485, 2.67 ERC#. Defense: good C, average IF, bad OF.
very possible i did it wrong, let me check!
4/12/2024 6:27 PM
Posted by footballmm11 on 4/11/2024 8:48:00 PM (view original):
Alright, think I got this about right. Here are my team averages for the PA/IP I'll use (I used 1400 instead of 1450 innings, since I have a couple teams short of 1450!)...
PA $/PA AVG# OBP# SLG# OPS#
ANA 5617 $ 9,213 0.307 0.384 0.486 0.870
HOU 5452 $ 9,077 0.302 0.383 0.511 0.894
KCR 5708 $ 7,886 0.305 0.352 0.443 0.795
MIL 5548 $ 7,677 0.281 0.355 0.457 0.812
NYM 5606 $ 7,734 0.291 0.354 0.457 0.812
SDP 5584 $ 8,111 0.286 0.362 0.461 0.823
TEX 5645 $ 8,753 0.307 0.377 0.495 0.872
WSN 5372 $ 8,437 0.299 0.370 0.490 0.860
IP $/IP OAV# WHIP# HR9# ERC#
ANA 1400 $ 31,987 0.212 1.10 0.53 2.45
HOU 1400 $ 38,578 0.199 0.97 0.52 1.96
KCR 1400 $ 36,432 0.202 1.04 0.40 2.18
MIL 1400 $ 32,425 0.205 1.09 0.61 2.45
NYM 1400 $ 34,890 0.219 1.07 0.39 2.38
SDP 1400 $ 39,099 0.196 0.99 0.49 2.00
TEX 1400 $ 30,517 0.211 1.08 0.61 2.47
WSN 1400 $ 35,482 0.205 1.03 0.46 2.14
barracuda3 was correct! I was weighting by Usage (0-100%) only when I needed to weight by Usage * IP/PA. Here it is corrected:
PA $/PA AVG# OBP# SLG# OPS#
ANA 5617 $ 9,117 0.298 0.382 0.472 0.854
HOU 5452 $ 9,095 0.296 0.385 0.505 0.890
KCR 5708 $ 8,188 0.302 0.351 0.454 0.805
MIL 5548 $ 7,972 0.283 0.354 0.468 0.822
NYM 5606 $ 8,005 0.293 0.355 0.468 0.824
SDP 5584 $ 8,256 0.286 0.360 0.461 0.821
TEX 5645 $ 9,192 0.309 0.380 0.512 0.893
WSN 5372 $ 8,717 0.298 0.368 0.500 0.868
IP $/IP OAV# WHIP# HR9# ERC#
ANA 1400 $ 30,567 0.224 1.13 0.53 2.65
HOU 1400 $ 38,615 0.201 0.97 0.56 2.01
KCR 1400 $ 31,683 0.219 1.09 0.49 2.49
MIL 1400 $ 31,228 0.213 1.10 0.64 2.58
NYM 1400 $ 33,310 0.226 1.09 0.43 2.50
SDP 1400 $ 33,712 0.214 1.05 0.57 2.31
TEX 1400 $ 29,524 0.224 1.12 0.55 2.62
WSN 1400 $ 33,853 0.210 1.07 0.48 2.32
4/12/2024 6:31 PM
"League 4, Round 1, Pick 8 (#14 in League 4): 2018 Brewers
I royally screwed this draft up... As I mentioned above, I should have taken 2020 or 2021 with one of my Top 8 picks."


I just noticed that footballmm11's Brewers team is in the same division as both pedrocerrano (2021 Brewers) and barracuda3 (2020 Brewers). I have to admit, that made me chuckle a little bit.
4/12/2024 7:52 PM (edited)
Figures!
4/12/2024 8:20 PM
How do you all easily calculate the normalized/weighted stats of your teams?
4/12/2024 8:35 PM
I multiply each stat category by each pitcher's innings. Then add up those totals and divide that by total innings (i.e., 1400). It doesn't make sense to include all your pitchers if you drafted 1575 innings. I reduce the worst's pitchers innings total such that my overall total gets to 1400. IN some cases, my worst pitcher drops out of the equation altogether.

For hitters, I do something similar, but instead of using their exact PAs, I use estimated playing time percentages (making sure each position adds up to 100%). So if I have a batter with 750 PA, he gets 100% weight. If I have another batter with 700 PA, he also gets 100% weight. I generally use 700 PA as the cutoff for playing 162 games. The exception is catchers.... I usually use 650 PA, so if my best catcher has 450 PA and my worst catcher has 300 PA, Catcher1 gets 69% (=450/650) and Catcher2 gets 31% (=200/650). After I multiply all the %'s by stat category, I can add up those totals and divide by 8.

Occasionally, I will add in like 10% for a stud pinch hitter (who won't ever start), but then divide the total by 8.1.
4/13/2024 10:59 AM (edited)
I think you missed the word “easily” in his question.
4/13/2024 11:12 AM
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