Is there an ideal strategy to roll a first round pick into next season? I’m picking high, but the options don’t fit my needs well. I’d prefer to roll this pick into next season. Should I target a ‘probably won’t sign guy’, or a ‘may sign guy’?

the probably won’t sign guys available are much worse than my pick spot. Like drafting a 75 overall in the top 10. If I took a probably won’t sign guy ahead of where he is supposed to go, does that make it more likely he signs?

If you already know you don't want either guy, I'd go with the safer bet to not sign. No need to have them receive your initial offer to sit on it and demand more money; holding up money that you could use on IFA. I say holding up your money because if I remember correctly, you cannot pull back the offer - they have to reject it to get the comp pick? Sorry, been too long for me to recall correctly.

Your best shot is targeting a probably won’t sign guy with his Mom as his agent. However, accept the risk he could sign. I had the top pick in my first season in a world. I took a highest ranked guy who met that criteria, a 5th round talent. I met his initial demand, he surprisingly accepted. Ideally one of those won’t sign is a highly ranked guy but buyer beware if you go further down the board.

per FAQ:

" In order to receive the compensation pick you must offer the player 100% of his initial demands, he must refuse to sign, and you must never withdraw your offer to the draft pick at any time."

So you basically need to pay their initial demands by never withdrawing the offer to get the type D. The risk of the "probably won't sign guy" is that he costs more money to get the type D pick, and if he happens to sign it's extra painful.

IMO the safe bet is to just take the best "may sign" guy and hope that he rejects the offer. It will be less expensive if he rejects it, it will be less expensive if he accepts it, and you get a better prospect if he accepts it.

It's nice to play for Type D w/ no great choices, but don't bend over backwards for it. You need to pay the signing bonus this year and next year, you need to wait an extra year for your pick, and there's some chance next year's draft is just as bad anyway.

I never draft for need because the player generally won't be ready to play in the majors for at least 2 seasons after this one. Lots can change in between.