Soon I will have to make a decision weather or not to keep Neil Leach -
whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerStats.aspx?pid=11267890

I don't believe I have had a bigger case of overachievement in my HBD experience. His ratings lead me to project that he should hit .266/.322/.435. (.757 OPS)

In 2461 AB over four seasons, he has actually hit .284/.355/.481. (.836 OPS). And he's gotten better each year, even though he is past 27,

Interested to hear what other people think. Why is this guy preforming so well, and should I expect it to continue?

My base-case projections are about the same as yours. However--
1) His speed, which I don't figure into OPS calculations (even though I should), probably increases his SLG by about 10-20 points due to doubles and triples
2) Playing half his games in BOS is worth about another total of 20 points in OPS.

So I'd expect a modest dip down to an OPS of about .790, and wouldn't sweat the small difference between my projections and what he did his first three years in the majors. The season he just finished is the fluke, just pretend it didn't happen and pay him accordingly.

Closet comp I could find was Ernest Clements in Cobbfather who plays in Austin, he sports a .247 / .319 / .407 / .726 line with 10-15 HR and ~20 SBs a season. The OBP isn't far off (.003) from each other.

	Con	Pwr	vL	vR	Eye	Run	Spd
Neil Leach	39	68	54	56	84	61	92
Ernest Clements	45	64	66	45	79	62	88

The patience (Neil 69 v Ernest 98) and Temper (Neil 32 v Ernest 0) are quite different. Makeup is a wash (48 v 50).

There is no good reason to keep him.. I doubt he is signed as a FA.. I'd only start a guy like this if he was a GG SS

thanks for your responses, everyone, especially dedelman. The observation about Fenway is confirmed by the fact that he puts up much better numbers at home. And like you my basic formula for projecting stats does not include speed. Turns out that this guy actually led the league in doubles last year with 54. I'll keep him as part of my COF/1B rotation and rest him on the road.

There are million 1B/RF that can hit way better than this for cheap as well. I'd ditch him.

His stats are a tick above what I'd expect even in Boston, but not outrageously so. I wouldn't expect him to have another S63 again but I think he's playable. Agree you can probably find someone better, though.