Posted by schwarze on 4/10/2024 3:57:00 PM (view original):
Team: Astros 1981, 1981, 1989
Ballpark: Minute Maid Park

Pick 1.02 - 1981 Astros
If I had the #1 overall pick, I may have taken 1981 over 2019 anyway. I hadn't really thought that through yet. 2019 certainly has better hitting, but their SPs are a bit HR prone, which may not be an issue if you end up playing in the Astrodome. Anyway, as most of you know, this 1981 team is loaded with pitching, and unlike the 2020's seasons with short-inning pitchers, this team has 6 very good pitchers (4 SP, 2 RP) totaling over 1100 innings! My starting rotation includes Nolan Ryan (220, 2.16), Don Sutton (234, 2.20), Bob Knepper (231, 2.42) and Joe Niekro (245, 2.97). The two RPs I get aren't wussies... these two guys total over 200 IPs. Those 45-50 inning wimps that can barely throw 10 pitches without fatiguing can kiss my arse. Give me Dave Smith (111, 1.97) and Joe Sambito (94, 2.13) every day. At the time of this pick, I hadn't yet decided which two offensive players would make the cut. As it turns out, I never was able to get a good catcher, so Alan Ashby (.271, .361, .378, A+ arm) is part of my catching platoon. I considered Jeffrey Leonard as my eighth player, but I instead wanted the switch-hitting outfielder Tony Scott (.293, .342, .405, A/A-) since he is going to start as part of an OF platoon. It is my hope, I can get a strong Bagwell, Berkman, Biggio type of season with my next pick. Long wait though.

Pick 2.11 - 2016 Astros
With about eight picks before my turn, all those good hitting seasons were still available. Things are looking good. Then bam... 1997, 2000, 2001, 2003, 2002 all get taken back-to-back-to-back. Crap! Is this going to be another '64 White Sox situation (i.e., good-pitching-can't hit-lose-a-bunch-of-close-games type of team)? I strongly considered taking 1972 b/c they are loaded with offense (but too right-handed and zero pitching help). I was also looking at 2004 and 2006. Although I already had 1100+ strong innings, I wanted more depth. I know footballmm11 loves to grab those 2015+ seasons to load up on quality arms, so I decide to grab 2016 here right in front of him, then take one of 1972, 2004 or 2006 on the way back. Frankly, 2006 fits the best with my needs. Anyway 2016 provides me with RPs Chris Devenski (108, 1.68), Like Gregerson (58, 1.91) and Will Harris (64, 2.13). Note that Pat Neshek (47, 1.82) and his 0.78 IP/G can go f*ck himself. More importantly, 2016 gives me some offense. Jose Altuve (.338, .401, .510, A-/D-) and his poor range will play 2B. Carlos Correa (.274, .365, .430, A-/C+) is one of the better-hitting shortstops in Astros history. George Springer (.261, .363, .436, A/B-) is acceptable and better than anybody from 1981. Evan Gattis (.251, .323, .487, A/A+/A+) is labeled a DH even though he is an awesome defensive catcher. Finally, Luis Valbuena (.260, .361, .438) can cover 1B, 2B, 3B. All-in-all, no complaints with what 2016 brings to the table.

Pick 3.02 - 2006 Astros
As expected, footballmm11 took 2004, leaving me 2006. I get a solid short-season from Roger Clemens (114, 2.15). I can use him in long relief or even spot start him. Chris Sampson (34, 1.69) and Dan Wheeler (72, 2.37) complete a very strong bullpen. The Astros are going to crush the Rangers in interleague play. Offensively, I get my starting 1B, Lance Berkman (.315, .417, .599, B/A-) and my 3B platoon with Morgan Ensberg (.235, .393, .439, B/B+) / Mike Lamb (.307, .358, .452, C-/B-). Also platooning (with Tony Scott) is OF Luke Scott (.336, .426, .621, A+/D-). Since my Scott-OF-platoon only has 607 PA, I needed to add Willy Tavares (.278, .333, .338, B/A) to spot start a couple of games. 2016 and 2006 fit really well together. I still need a starting OF and preferably a left-handed bat.

Pick 4.11 - 1967 Rusty Staub
Bingo! Welcome to the team '67 Rusty Staub (.333, .398, .473, D+/C+). I figured the two stud Jim Wynn's would get selected, and Staub's defense isn't great so there was a chance he'd make it to me. What was a predominantly right-handed team can now start as many as 5 lefty/switch hitters.

Pitching Stats
Best 1450 innings: 2.20 erc#, .216 oav#, 1.07 whip#, 0.34 hr/9#

Hitting Stats
Including platoons, excluding scrubs: .296 avg#, .379 obp#, .472 slg#, .850 ops#

Outlook:
Compared to my Brewers team, this Astros team looks awesome. My guess is that a number of Astros teams will look really good compared to just about any other franchise. My pitching should finish near the top of the league, but my offense is probably average at best. I don't like my team's defense (especially range). I almost never use D- range guys but I needed Altuve's bat. This will ding my pitchers stats a bit. I would like to think this team can win 85-90 games. That should be good enough to advance to round 3, but I don';t think this team will challenge for a top 5 overall record.

Mid-Season Update

Record: 39-45, .464 (8th out of 12, in NL)
Exp Win%: .525 (5th)
1-Run Games: 12-14 (1-1 in extras)
Offense Rank: 6th
Pitching Rank: 4th
Defense Rank (Range): 8th
Defense Rank (Fielding): 8th

Comments: Early in the season, this team was a top 10 overall team. They were sitting at 23-13, performing exactly as I expected. Since then, they've gone 16-32. Also, they are 16-23 in games decided by 1-2 runs There are three teams selected in the Top 8 draft that currently aren't qualified for round 3. Two of those are my two picks.

This team was supposed to have the best relief pitching depth of all of my teams, yet those pitchers sim ERAs are all more than double their real life ERC# numbers. Dave Smith (1.97 real life erc# vs 3.79 sim era), Joe Sambito (2.13 vs 4.69), Wil Harris (2.13 vs 5.02), Luke Gregorson (1.91 vs 4.81), Chris Devenski (1.68 vs 4.57), Chris Sampson (1.69 vs 3.60). This is why I f*cking hate RPs. Every RP is better than all my SPs in real life, yet all my SPs are performing better than my RPs in the sim. What's the point?

The offense is led by Lance Berkman (.326/.401//607), who is currently 2nd in the MVP race (behind '94 Bagwell). Jose Altuve (.293/.366/.408) has been fine. Free agent Rusty Staub (.285/..367/.405) has been ok. The rest of the offense isn't very good. I think I need to bench CF Willy Tavares (.209/.256/.245) and simply platoon Tony Scott and Luke Scott the rest of the season.

Final thoughts
Just like my Brewers team, luck has not been on my side in close games. Clearly, this team has the potential to win games (they showed it early) and the relief pitching is supposed to be a positive, not a negative. Willy Tavares only has 2 + plays in CF, so I don't think benching him will cost me too much on defense, and I should improve greatly on offense. If we can just get baclk to .500, my team's Exp Win% will be enough to break any ties on qualification for round 3.

Posted by schwarze on 4/10/2024 7:21:00 PM (view original):
Team: Angels 1982, 1972, 2018
Ballpark: Anaheim Stadium

Pick 1.04 - 1982 Angels
I have the fourth pick in League 2, and the first two picks are 2020 Angels and 1964 Angels. Surely njbigwig will take the best Mets season and guarantee himself back-to-back picks in rounds 2-3, right? Then my strategy to take 1978 Brewers over 2011 Angels as the #2 overall pick will have paid off. Nope. He sticks that knife right in the gut. Now what do I do? Well, I come up with a unique strategy. In past leagues, I am always amazed at how effective Nolan Ryan's high-walk seasons tend to be in the sim (despite not so great ERC# numbers). My thinking is that if I can grab one or two high-walk low-oav Nolan Ryan seasons and put great hitting and strong defense behind it, maybe that will turn into a winning formula. That's why I took 1982. From this roster, I end up getting six starters - C Bob Boone (.256, .311, .328 A+ arm), 1B Rod Carew (.319, .397, .393, B-/A+), 2B Bobby Grich (.261, .371, .438, B+/A), 3B Doug DeCinces (.301, .369, .537, B/A+), OF Fred Lynn (.299, .375, .506, A-/B), OF Brian Downing (.281, .369, .471, A+/C). Reggie Jackson (.275, .376, .522, C/D-) was also part of the original starting lineup but was replaced later - he still makes the team as a spot starter and pinch hitter. The only pitcher to make the roster is long RP, Bruce Kison (142, 2.98)

Pick 2.09 - 1972 Angels
So now I am looking at all of the Nolan Ryan teams. All his 1970's teams are still available. 1972 has the most usable innings from other pitchers (plus has one of the best Ryan seasons). I also really like 1965 due to 800 decent innings along with a stud SS (stud being relative to the Angels history) which I badly needed. I also like 1981 (i.e,. Forsch, Burleson).

Since it's likely one of 1965 or 1981 makes it back to me, I go with 1972. I just couldn't pass up 1100 innings, given that I got almost no pitching with my first round pick. 1972 gives me three good SPs: Nolan Ryan (297, 2.57), Andy Messersmith (178, 2.52), Rudy May (215, 3.04) and one not-so-great SP in Clyde Wright (263, 3.43) plus one RP Steve Barber (61, 2.51). The hitting on this team is pretty worthless, which is why I probably could have waited. John Stephenson and Jack Hiatt are two backup catchers with low-PA, both who hit better than Boone. My last player is a backup 1B, Bob Oliver, to spell Carew a few games.

Pick 3.04 - 2018 Angels
Crap, crap, CRAP! njbigwig does it to me again. He takes 1965. Then footballmm11 takes 1981. Now I have no SS. Of course, all the other Nolan Ryan seasons make it back to me. I start scrambling to find a shortstop. I have 1250 innings, so pitching isn't an issue. The best SS I find is 2018 Andrelton Simmons (.292, .337, .417, A/A) so that's the main reason I took this season. Oh, they also have a stud Mike Trout (.312, .460, .628). Wait, don't I already have three starting OFs? Yes, but I didn't feel comfortable starting Reggie and is D- range. Let's go all-in on having great defense everywhere. What else does this team give me? Not much. Three RPs, Taylor Cole (36, 1.85), Jose Alvarez (63, 2.51) and Shohei Otani (52, 2.88). The other three players are defensive replacements and not even worth mentioning. That 1972 pick in round 2 was a critical mistake. I should have taken 1965, then if 1972 gets picked, I simply take 1976 with 570 innings of Ryan and Tanana. Stupid.

Pick 4.09 - 2010 Jered Weaver
Well, at least we salvaged some pitching in the player draft. The 1976 season lasted until pick 35 - what a steal (if you needed innings). Starting pitchers '75 Tanana, '73 Ryan and '89 Blyleven all got taken in the player draft. I was hoping to get Blyleven (for his low HR) but am happy to get '10 Jered Weaver (224, 2.54). He immediately becomes my best SP. I have no decent RP so I'm going to have to use guys in tandems. What an clusterf*ck of a pitching staff.

Pitching Stats
Best 1450 innings: 2.77 erc#, .217 oav#, 1.19 whip#, 0.56 hr/9#

Hitting Stats
Including platoons, excluding scrubs: .291 avg#, .374 obp#, .464 slg#, .838 ops#

Outlook:
This team's only hope to be an above-500 team is if their defense is ranked #1 in the league. Even with that, I wouldn't be surprised if this team has a poor record in 1-run games and/or blows a lot of late-inning leads. The offense should be above average but the pitching will be way below average. Feels like a 73-76 win team, pretty much what Nolan Ryan's Angels teams were.

Mid-Season Update

Record: 45-39, .536 (tied for 2nd out of 12, in AL)
Exp Win%: .455 (9th)
1-Run Games: 15-7 (3-2 in extras)
Offense Rank: 11th
Pitching Rank: 4th
Defense Rank (Range): 1st
Defense Rank (Fielding): 1st

Comments: Well, as I said above, if this team's defense is ranked #1, then this team could be above .500, and sure enough, it's ranked #1 in defense and I'm above .500. We're very lucky in 1-run games and this despite a very poor bullpen. Every one of my RPs have ERAs worse than my top 3 SPs, yet somehow I am winning close games.

'72 Nolan Ryan (9-9, 2.79, 182 Ks in 164 IPs) is pitching exactly like he did in real life in the 1970's.... on a pace to strike out 350+ batters while walking 200+ batters, while having a good ERA but only a .500 record. Somehow, Jered Weaver (8-8, 3.29) has the same W-L record as Rudy May (8-8, 4.59) despite having an ERA more than a run lower. Clyde Wright (12-7, 3.30) is exceeding expectations. I'm certain the league's #1 defense is helping all my starting pitchers. The bullpen is awful even with great defense. SP Andy Messersmith (2-3, 10/13 saves, 3.89) is by far the best guy out of the pen. After that, it gets ugly quick.

The disappointing part of this team is the offense. Here I go outside my norm and draft an offense-only season with my first round pick (1982), yet my team is ranked 11th in runs scored. Here are my grossly underachieving 1982 hitters. Bobby Grich (.819 ops irl vs .521 ops sim), Reggie Jackson (.907 vs .615), Doug DeCinces (.916 vs .693), Brian Downing (.850 vs .640). Sadly, I've benched Reggie Jackson for another underachieving OF, Mike Trout, who is hitting a robust .231. Apparently, he's turned into a 3-true-outcomes player (on pace for 35 HRs, 134 walks and 160 strikeouts)

Final thoughts
Well, if I expect positive regression for my Astros and Brewers teams, then negative regression should be coming for my Angels team. I'm not use to having a team with a 15-7 record in 1-run games, so I'm sure this team's success will be short-lived, especially if my 1982 batters don't start hitting.

Posted by schwarze on 4/10/2024 9:05:00 PM (view original):
Team: Royals 1993, 1975, 1983
Ballpark: Royals Stadium

Pick 1.03 - 1993 Royals
I had the 8th pick in League 3. The first five picks were Expos/Nationals. The first two Royals picks were 1972 and 1979. I didn't see an Expos/Nationals team that stood out, so I decided to go with a Royals team. The knee-jerk reaction here would be to take 1980. '80 George Brett and '80 Willie Wilson are the two most expensive hitters in the Royals database. My rankings have 1980 as the KC season with the most usable salary. They really have no stud pitchers, but they do have 4 pitchers totaling 885 innings with ERC# below 3.40. After seeing how bad my offense is, I kind of wish I had taken 1980.

Anyway, 1993 has five usable pitchers... Kevin Appier (239, 2.12) is a stud and a favorite of mine. David Cone (254, 3.07) is top 20 Royals SP. Jeff Montgomery (88, 1.77), Stan Belinda (70, 2.89) and Tom Gordon (156, 3.00) round out 800 very solid innings. The offense isn't great, but I got three strong defensive players in OF Brian McRae (.280, .321, 400, B/A-), SS Greg Gagne (.278, .315, .393, A/C+) and C Mike MacFarlane (.271, .356, .484, A+ arm). Yep, now you see why I should've taken 1980.

Pick 2.10 - 1975 Royals
Starting with B.McRae, Gagne and MacFarlane on offense isn't going to scare any pitchers, so I need hitting, badly. This 1975 team gets me four starting batters, all who are better hitters than the slop I got from 1993. 1975 John Mayberry (.293, .417, .549, C/B+) will be my team's best hitter. The other starting batters include 3B George Brett (.310, .354, .458, C+/B), OF Hal McRae (.309, .367, .443, B/D+) and OF Amos Otis (.249, .342. .387, B+/B+). Catcher Bob Stinson (.268, .346, .362, A+ arm) will platoon with MacFarlane. I get my SP3, Steve Busby (261, 3.05) plus two more RPs, Steve Mingori (51, 2.71) and Marty Pattin (177, 3.23)

Pick 3.03 - 1983 Royals
I still needed a 2B, an OF upgrade and some bullpen help. Let's address the bullpen by grabbing one of the best RPs in franchise history. Dan Quisenberry (139, 1.76) set up Jeff Montgomery nicely. Paul Splittorff (156, 3.56) is a lefty spot starter and probably mostly a mop-up guy. But I'm able to fill three big holes. I am using my clone option on George Brett (.309, .386, .553, D/C+) who will start in the OF (over Amos Otis). Frank White (.259, .284, .397, A/A+) was penciled in as a starter, but after round 4, he will come in for defense. Willie Aikens (.301, .374, .529) is a nice pinch hitter. Butch Davis (.342, .360, .499, C/A-) can pinch hit and come in for defense in the OF. Don Slaught (.310, .336, .379) gives me an offensive minded catcher. UL Washington is my only backup SS and is actually a worse hitter than Gagne.

Pick 4.10 - 2019 Whit Merrifield
While I preferred Jose Offerman (who went early), I am very happy to get Whit Merrifield (.308, .352, .433, B-/A+), who is a big offensive upgrade over Frank White, while not losing much defensively.

Pitching Stats
Best 1450 innings: 2.70 erc#, .229 oav#, 1.16 whip#, 0.47 hr/9#

Hitting Stats
Including platoons, excluding scrubs: .291 avg#, .358 obp#, .455 slg#, .812 ops#

Outlook:
I'm guessing many Royals teams aren't going to look that great. I hope others post their team's normalized stats for easy comparison. I do have 3 of the top 22 KC starting pitchers and the back end of the bullpen is very strong. My defense is above average. Not sure how the offense will do. I think this team can finish over .500 and possibly get to 90 wins if we get lucky in 1-run games. Fun fact: I'll have both Hal and Brian McRae in my starting lineup.

Mid-Season Update

Record: 40-44, .476 (8th out of 12, in AL)
Exp Win%: .528 (3rd)
1-Run Games: 8-17 (0-7 in extras)
Offense Rank: 10th
Pitching Rank: 2nd
Defense Rank (Range): 10th
Defense Rank (Fielding): 2nd

Comments: This is the fourth team I've posted and for all four, the winning % and the expected winning% are on the opposite sides of .500, which is why I said that luck is playing a much more important factor on round 3 qualification than it should. So far, three of my teams that should be qualifying aren't, while one team that shouldn't qualify is. How stupid is that?

Kevin Appier (9-1, 2.34) has been great. The rest of the starters not so much (17-29, ERAs between 4.20-4.25). Still, this team is ranked 2nd in pitching despite my two best RPs, Jeff Montgomery (1.77 erc# vs 5.80 era), Dan Quisenberry (1.76 vs 3.78) both killing me. Montgomery and Quiz were supposed to be the key to this team winning close games. Instead, these two are 6-9 with 9 blown saves. The last eleven 1-run games my Royals have played have all resulted in a loss. Outrageous! Oh, and we're 0-7 in extra innings which include games I lost by more than 1-run. So of course, we have the third best Exp Win% in the A.L., but are currently not a round 3 qualifying team.

I'm not sure what the issue is with the lack of offense on all of my teams. 1975 was drafted specifically to get a stud 1B, John Mayberry. His .963 real life OPS is the highest on my roster, but I've had to bench him as his sim performance (.748) is the third worst on the team. Part time 1B, Willie Aikens (.862) has been much better. Hell, for a long part of the season, weak-hitting Frank White was better than Mayberry. Did I mention that '83 George Brett (.947) has the team's second best real life OPS and also sucks in the sim (.734). Basically, my two best real life hitters have the 2nd and 3rd worst sim OPS on my team. How is this even possible?

Final thoughts
This round has me doubting my understanding of this game. With a lower effective salary cap, with weaker hitting and pitching talent, I figured the better players would perform closer to real life, but really good RPs suck and really good hitters suck. WTF? I really have no idea where this team will end up.

Posted by schwarze on 4/10/2024 10:55:00 PM (view original):
Team: Mets 2008, 1975, 2016
Ballpark: Shea Stadium

Pick 1.08 - 2008 Mets
In league 2, the first four teams selected were the Angels. Seven of the next nine picks were Mets. Since I already had my Angels team, I was locked into taking a Mets team at pick #14. Although it was tempting to grab one of those 1970's Tom Seaver Mets teams, I felt like there were enough Tom Seaver seasons where I could get one in round 2. I started looking at Mets teams with a lot of offensive starters. 2008 was perfect. This season gives me four starting batters - 1B, 2B, 3B and OF, all with at least 686 PAs! No need for backups. These include Carlos Delgado (,272 .352, .502, B/B-), David Wright (.303, .389, .518, B/B-), Jose Reyes (.298, .356, .459, B/C) and Carlos Beltran (.285, .375, .484, A/A+). Plus, I get half my catching platoon with Brian Schneider (.258, .338, .352, B+/A+/B+). Ryan Church (.277, .345, .423, A/B) gives me a backup OF and defensive replacement. Not only did this season fill 4.5 starting positions, but I even get a solid SP, Johan Santana (234, 2.78) and a stud reliever, Billy Wagner (47, 1.58). Considering this was the eighth Mets team selected, I am very pleased.

Pick 2.05 - 1975 Mets
I had my eye on 2000 Mets, but pedrocerrano took them 2 picks in front of me. I guess it's time to get some pitching. This season allows me to add two SPs, one RP and 2-3 more starting position players. Tom "Terrific" Seaver (281, 2.33) should be in the Cy Young race. I didn't know it at the time, but Jon Matlack (229, 3.22) is the team's worst SP. The three RPs are Ken Sanders (43, 1.87), Skip Lockwood (49, 2.11) and Bob Apodaca (85, 2.29). 2B Felix Milan (.285, .330, .354, C/C-) is my worst hitter but will only play about 1/3 of the time. Rusty Staub (.285, .372, .455, C+/B-) will play one of the corner OF spots. Jerry Grote (.298, .358, .380, A/A/A-) will share time behind the plate. Things are going very well so far. I have 1000 innings and 7 starting batting spots.

Pick 3.08 - 2016 Mets
I probably could have made a better pick here. I didn't need much, so I should have maximized getting the biggest impactful player. Instead, I picked a team that gave me a decent (not great) third outfielder, Yoenis Cepsedes (.284, .357, .515, C+.B-). I get an upgrade at 2B, albeit with only 458 PA, with Neil Walker (.286, .351, 460, B+/C-). I get three decent RPs, Addison Reed (78, 1.68), Jeurys Familia (78, 2.38) and Seth Lugo (64, .275). I get a couple one decent SP, Noah Syndergaard (184, 2.73). TJ Rivera is a pinch hitter and backup infielder (.338, .349, .461). Based on who I grabbed in round 4, I don't even need Jacob deGrom (148, 3.33), but don't really have anybody better to take.

Pick 4.05 - 1978 Craig Swan
I didn't really need another SP here. The best RP was Tug McGraw, but I passed on him b/c I haven't had luck with him in other leagues. I have a lot of RP depth, and I wanted to upgrade Matlack, so I grabbed Craig Swan (208, 2.44) even though McGraw's stats are way better than Swan's. Instead, footballmm11 took McGraw four picks after I took Swan. That's why he has has been crushing this tournament.

Pitching Stats
Best 1450 innings: 2.47 erc#, .225 oav#, 1.11 whip#, 0.48 hr/9#

Hitting Stats
Including platoons, excluding scrubs: .287 avg#, .362 obp#, .464 slg#, .825 ops#

Outlook:
This team has decent, but not dominant pitching. Seaver and Swan are both top 20, but Syndergaard and Santana are not even top 30. The defense is not great, maybe slightly below average. The bullpen is deep, which is rare for my teams. I have plenty of extra innings (is this a plus?). The hitting is strong at SS, 3B, but a bit weak at 1B and OF. I should have used my third pick on a dominant player like '87 Daryl Strawberry. This feels like an 81-81 team.

Mid-Season Update

Record: 36-50, .419 (12th out of 12, in NL)
Exp Win%: .418 (12th)
1-Run Games: 13-14 (6-5 in extras)
Offense Rank: 12th
Pitching Rank: 9th
Defense Rank (Range): 6th
Defense Rank (Fielding): 7th

Comments: Finally, a team of mine whose Expected Win% and Actual Win% are in sync. Both suck. Not that it really would make any difference, but this team has the worst bullpen in the league, with a league-leading 15 blown saves already (also a 12-19 record for my bullpen). Maybe I should have taken Tug McGraw over '78 Craig Swan (5-8, 4.06) in the free agent draft. Billy Wagner (1.58 erc# in real life vs 6.38 ERA in sim) has been abysmal. Addison Reed (1.68 vs 5.13), Bob Apodaca (2.29 vs 7.11), Jeurys Familia (2.38 vs 6.20) are all dumpster fires out of the pen. I'd like to see what other bullpen has performed worse than their real life numbers than this bullpen. I mean, all my guys have ERAs *three times* worse than their real life erc#.

Offensively, it's another last league worst run-scoring unit for me. David Wright (.302/.390/.534) and Carlos Delgado (38 HRs, .518 slug) are supposed to be my two of my best hitters. But similar to my Royals team, my best real life hitters are among my worst sim hitters. Wright is at .244/.338/.362 and Delgado is at .215/.308/.332. with 8 HRs. It's not like he's facing deadball pitching? How does a guy with 38 real life HRs have 8 through 86 games? Oh, Jose Reyes (19 triples in real life) has 4 so far.

Final thoughts
This is my worst team by far. I've pretty much given up on them. Anytime they win a game, I always feel bad for the opponent as they are probably thinking... "Damn, I can't believe I lost to schwarze's crappy Mets team". Because that's how I would feel when my good teams lose to crappy teams.

Posted by schwarze on 4/10/2024 10:55:00 PM (view original):
Team: Mets 2008, 1975, 2016
Ballpark: Shea Stadium

Pick 1.08 - 2008 Mets
In league 2, the first four teams selected were the Angels. Seven of the next nine picks were Mets. Since I already had my Angels team, I was locked into taking a Mets team at pick #14. Although it was tempting to grab one of those 1970's Tom Seaver Mets teams, I felt like there were enough Tom Seaver seasons where I could get one in round 2. I started looking at Mets teams with a lot of offensive starters. 2008 was perfect. This season gives me four starting batters - 1B, 2B, 3B and OF, all with at least 686 PAs! No need for backups. These include Carlos Delgado (,272 .352, .502, B/B-), David Wright (.303, .389, .518, B/B-), Jose Reyes (.298, .356, .459, B/C) and Carlos Beltran (.285, .375, .484, A/A+). Plus, I get half my catching platoon with Brian Schneider (.258, .338, .352, B+/A+/B+). Ryan Church (.277, .345, .423, A/B) gives me a backup OF and defensive replacement. Not only did this season fill 4.5 starting positions, but I even get a solid SP, Johan Santana (234, 2.78) and a stud reliever, Billy Wagner (47, 1.58). Considering this was the eighth Mets team selected, I am very pleased.

Pick 2.05 - 1975 Mets
I had my eye on 2000 Mets, but pedrocerrano took them 2 picks in front of me. I guess it's time to get some pitching. This season allows me to add two SPs, one RP and 2-3 more starting position players. Tom "Terrific" Seaver (281, 2.33) should be in the Cy Young race. I didn't know it at the time, but Jon Matlack (229, 3.22) is the team's worst SP. The three RPs are Ken Sanders (43, 1.87), Skip Lockwood (49, 2.11) and Bob Apodaca (85, 2.29). 2B Felix Milan (.285, .330, .354, C/C-) is my worst hitter but will only play about 1/3 of the time. Rusty Staub (.285, .372, .455, C+/B-) will play one of the corner OF spots. Jerry Grote (.298, .358, .380, A/A/A-) will share time behind the plate. Things are going very well so far. I have 1000 innings and 7 starting batting spots.

Pick 3.08 - 2016 Mets
I probably could have made a better pick here. I didn't need much, so I should have maximized getting the biggest impactful player. Instead, I picked a team that gave me a decent (not great) third outfielder, Yoenis Cepsedes (.284, .357, .515, C+.B-). I get an upgrade at 2B, albeit with only 458 PA, with Neil Walker (.286, .351, 460, B+/C-). I get three decent RPs, Addison Reed (78, 1.68), Jeurys Familia (78, 2.38) and Seth Lugo (64, .275). I get a couple one decent SP, Noah Syndergaard (184, 2.73). TJ Rivera is a pinch hitter and backup infielder (.338, .349, .461). Based on who I grabbed in round 4, I don't even need Jacob deGrom (148, 3.33), but don't really have anybody better to take.

Pick 4.05 - 1978 Craig Swan
I didn't really need another SP here. The best RP was Tug McGraw, but I passed on him b/c I haven't had luck with him in other leagues. I have a lot of RP depth, and I wanted to upgrade Matlack, so I grabbed Craig Swan (208, 2.44) even though McGraw's stats are way better than Swan's. Instead, footballmm11 took McGraw four picks after I took Swan. That's why he has has been crushing this tournament.

Pitching Stats
Best 1450 innings: 2.47 erc#, .225 oav#, 1.11 whip#, 0.48 hr/9#

Hitting Stats
Including platoons, excluding scrubs: .287 avg#, .362 obp#, .464 slg#, .825 ops#

Outlook:
This team has decent, but not dominant pitching. Seaver and Swan are both top 20, but Syndergaard and Santana are not even top 30. The defense is not great, maybe slightly below average. The bullpen is deep, which is rare for my teams. I have plenty of extra innings (is this a plus?). The hitting is strong at SS, 3B, but a bit weak at 1B and OF. I should have used my third pick on a dominant player like '87 Daryl Strawberry. This feels like an 81-81 team.

Mid-Season Update

Record: 36-50, .419 (12th out of 12, in NL)
Exp Win%: .418 (12th)
1-Run Games: 13-14 (6-5 in extras)
Offense Rank: 12th
Pitching Rank: 9th
Defense Rank (Range): 6th
Defense Rank (Fielding): 7th

Comments: Finally, a team of mine whose Expected Win% and Actual Win% are in sync. Both suck. Not that it really would make any difference, but this team has the worst bullpen in the league, with a league-leading 15 blown saves already (also a 12-19 record for my bullpen). Maybe I should have taken Tug McGraw over '78 Craig Swan (5-8, 4.06) in the free agent draft. Billy Wagner (1.58 erc# in real life vs 6.38 ERA in sim) has been abysmal. Addison Reed (1.68 vs 5.13), Bob Apodaca (2.29 vs 7.11), Jeurys Familia (2.38 vs 6.20) are all dumpster fires out of the pen. I'd like to see what other bullpen has performed worse than their real life numbers than this bullpen. I mean, all my guys have ERAs *three times* worse than their real life erc#.

Offensively, it's another last league worst run-scoring unit for me. David Wright (.302/.390/.534) and Carlos Delgado (38 HRs, .518 slug) are supposed to be my two of my best hitters. But similar to my Royals team, my best real life hitters are among my worst sim hitters. Wright is at .244/.338/.362 and Delgado is at .215/.308/.332. with 8 HRs. It's not like he's facing deadball pitching. How does a guy with 38 real life HRs have 8 through 86 games? Oh, Jose Reyes (19 triples in real life) has 4 so far.

Final thoughts
This is my worst team by far. I've pretty much given up on them. Anytime they win a game, I always feel bad for the opponent as they are probably thinking... "Damn, I can't believe I lost to schwarze's crappy Mets team". Because that's how I would feel when my good teams lose to crappy teams.

Posted by schwarze on 4/11/2024 10:59:00 AM (view original):
Team: Nationals 2018, 2015, 1989
Ballpark: Olympic Stadium

Pick 1.12 - 2018 Nationals
Pick 2.01 - 2015 Nationals
I had the 17th pick in league 3. I had already taken the Royals earlier, so I was locked in to the Expos/Nationals. One spot before my turn, I had finally settled on the season I wanted. Then once again, calhoop crushed my soul by sniping 1987 from my grasp. It was late at night, and I had no idea what to do now. Since I was the 11th Expos team, I thought it would be more beneficial to trade down with somebody behind me so I could take a double pick. With apologies to DarthDurron (who picked one spot right behind me and assumed he'd get the 12th Expos team), I made an offer to mllama54, b/c he's usually quick to reply. I didn't realize how late it was, so he didn't reply right away. I woke up to find out that he had accepted and seemed happy to take Pedro's 1997 season.

At this point, I realized that I wasn't going to find any teams with 8 useful players, so I decided "WTF - let's have some fun". I grabbed Max Scherzer's two best available seasons left, which also included Bruce Harper's stud season. I didn't even care how many holes I still had left to fill, at least I got three stars on the team. (Most of my other teams don't really have the stars). Here's the tally of the players I got with these two picks... two good SPs, one mediocre SP, a couple of good RPs, a couple of ok RPs, a crappy 2B platoon, a decent hitting 3B, a good-fielding SS, a stud OF plus a lefty-platoon outfielder.

SP - '15 Max Scherzer (229, 2.13)
SP - '18 Max Scherzer (221, 2.03)
SP - '15 Stephen Strasburg (127, 2.95)
RP - '18 Sean Doolittle (45, 0.93)
RP - '15 Felipe Rivero (48, 1.75)
RP - '15 Joe Ross (77, 2.77)
RP - '15 Drew Storen (55, 2.81)
2B - '15 Danny Espinosa (.244, .317, .401, A+/B-) and '18 Daniel Murphy (.308, .342, .443, C/D-)
3B - '18 Anthony Rendon (.317, .394, .524, A/D+)
SS - '18 Trea Turner (.279, .350, .405, A,B)
OF - '15 Bryce Harper (.336, .468, .642, C/C+)
OF - '18 Juan Soto (.301, .412, .506, A-/C-)

I also rostered a crappy backup catcher ('18 Matt Weiters) and some backup OFs ('15 Denard Span & '18 Adam Eaton). OK - it's not as bad as I had originally thought. But I still need a starting catcher, starting first baseman, a starting outfielder, and over 600 innings of pitching. No problem.

Pick 3.12 - 1989 Expos
This is where getting the first pick in the player draft comes in handy. There are no seasons with a decent catcher that also fills the other needs I have. So knowing I can get Gary Carter in the player draft, I am able to find a gem of a season, with 1989. It has almost everything I need. Let's start with pitching. Bryn Smith (216, 2.67) is the 7th ranked Expos/Nationals SP (200+ IP). If I lower the requirement to 199 innings, Pascual Perez (199, 2.90) is ranked 26th. Mark Langston (250, 3.18) isn't terrible and is my only LHSP. RPs Tim Burke (85, 2.47) and Zane Smith (48, 2.79) add depth to the pen. What about offense? Andres Galarraga (.265, .335, .443, B-/B+) isn't going to scare anybody but he does have a 112 OPS+ and will start at 1B. Tim Wallach (.286, .350, .428, B/B) provides some backup PAs for Rendon. And Tim Raines (.295, .404, .427, A/D) is my OF3 and will lead off. Considering this was the 36th team selected, I feel fortunate to get them

Pick 4.01 - 1975 Gary Carter
There are only 16 catchers in Expos/Nationals history with at least 500 PA. '75 Gary Carter (.270, .361, .422, A+ arm) is ranked 8th in OPS#. Considering mllama45 selected Michael Barrett (ranked 13th if you include catchers with 400+ PA) right after I took Carter, I think the trade was probably a good thing for me. Not sure if I would've taken 1997 or not. I hadn't looked past 1987.

Pitching Stats
Best 1450 innings: 2.50 erc#, .222 oav#, 1.07 whip#, 0.67 hr/9#

Hitting Stats
Including platoons, excluding scrubs: .291 avg#, .376 obp#, .466 slg#, .843 ops#

Outlook:
After my double pick in round, I thought for sure this team was going to lose 90+ games... but the 1989 pick really saved me. This team is still offensively challenged. The defense is probably slightly above average. The starting pitching should be solid as I have 3 of the top 7 SPs (>200 IPs). They are a bit HR prone though. The bullpen isn't very good or deep. Feels like a 76-82 win team, maybe a bit better if the bullpen can not suck.

Mid-Season Update

Record: 48-38, .558 (tied for 2nd out of 12, in NL)
Exp Win%: .587 (1st)
1-Run Games: 9-10 (5-5 in extras)
Offense Rank: 5th
Pitching Rank: 1st
Defense Rank (Range): 9th
Defense Rank (Fielding): 1st

Comments: Well, this team is the opposite of my Mets team. They have a good winning% and a good expected winning%. I drafted two really good Max Scherzers, but in a very odd quirk, the lesser '15 Scherzer (13-2, 2.35) is crushing it (1st in Cy Young race) while the better '18 Scherzer (4.28) has been disappointing. Somehow, '18 Scherzer is 8-5 while Mark Langston is 4-10 with a better ERA (3.96) - I guess Langston must not be getting any run support. Bryn Smith (7-9, 4.41) is supposed to be a top 10 Expos pitcher, but has been below league average for me. The bullpen has blown 13 saves (league avg is 10). Tim Burke (3.02), Drew Storen (2.01), Felipe Rivero (3.324) and Sean Doolittle (3.33) have all been good, while Zane Smith (7.53), Joe Ross (5.52) and Pascual Perez (5.86) have been terrible.

The fifth ranked offense in the NL is led by '15 Bryce Harper (.316/.477/.592, 20 HRs, 69 RBIs). He is ranked #1 in the MVP race. '89 Tim Raines (.306, .407, .476) and Juan Soto (.286/.410/.485) have been solid contributors. The defense has been excellent, with a league leading .990 fielding percentage. Free agent Gary Carter isn't hitting at all (.225/.292/.341) but he has thrown out 16 of 37 stolen base attempts (43%).

Final thoughts
The third round pick of 1989 really saved this team, filling a bunch of holes. These drafts can be so weird. I loved my 1981 Astros team, but they are struggling, and I assumed this Nationals team was a loser, but they have been really good. Who knows anymore.

Posted by schwarze on 4/11/2024 5:09:00 PM (view original):
Team: Rangers 1989, 1983, 2017
Ballpark: Arlington Stadium

Pick 1.05 - 1989 Rangers
I had picks #2 and #11 in league 1. My top pick was the 1981 Astros, so this pick was going to be the Rangers. The split was 6 Astros / 4 Rangers teams when my turn came up. I'm not a big fan of the Rangers franchise in general. They never have any good pitching. Many of their best hitters don't draw walks. I wanted to make sure I got a team with at least 2 usable starting pitchers. Did you know that in the franchise history, there are only 20 starting pitchers (180+ innings) with ERC# <= 3.00. Not surprisingly, footballmm11 grabbed 2010 (C.Lee 2.25, C.Wilson 2.96, C.Lewis 3.08) as the first Rangers season off the board. Nice pick. I picked 1989 to get Nolan Ryan (240, 2.32) and Kevin Brown (191, 3.02). I got just one RP from this roster, but he's a good one... Jeff Russell (73, 1.77). Considering I drafted this team for their SP, I got three starting batters with OPS+ >= 120... 2B Julio Franco (.317, .388, .461, B-/C-) and OFs Ruben Sierra (.307, .349, .542, C/C-) and Harold Baines (.310, .396, .465, D+/C). Gino Petralli (.305, .369, .407, C- arm) provides 200 catching PAs. Scott Fletcher (A+/B-) provides a defensive replacement for Frano at 2B. Although I'm not thrilled with my defense (so far), but at least I got 7 useful pieces out of this season.

Pick 2.08 - 1983 Rangers
I needed (wanted) more pitching and 1983 had a number of pitchers that would be helpful. Start with SP Charlie Hough (252, 3.26). I know a 3.26 ERC# isn't sexy, but I guarantee many Rangers teams will start guys who are worse. Rick Honeycutt (175, 3.03) represents my only LH SP and now I have 4 starting pitchers (858 innings). When you add in RPs Victor Cruz (25, 1.97), Dave Tobik (44, 2.28), Dave Stewart (59, 2.56) and Odell Jones (67, 2.65), my team is now up to 1126 innings. 1989 also brings me two great defensive players, 3B Buddy Bell (.275, .333, .402, A-/A) and CF George Wright (.274, .321, .415, B/A+). I actually got 8 very solid pieces with this season. Through two rounds, it appears this will be a pitching and defense oriented team.

Pick 3.05 - 2017 Rangers
I still need a C, 1B, SS and at least 300 more innings (including one SP). I was all set to grab 2003 in order to get Alex Rodriguez to be my starting SS, but I didn't like the other hitters and other than a few RPs, 2003 didn't really help my pitching staff. Sure, that year has a bunch of guys with 115-118 OPS+ but most are poor fielders. With all the subpar Rangers pitching, I want to have a great defense at least at the important positions like CF and SS. Who is the Rangers all-time best fielding SS? That's right 2017 Elvis Andrus (.297, .340, 447, A-/A+++). This season also provided an offensive (and defensive) upgrade at 3B, albeit with only 389 PA, and that's Adrian Beltre (.315, .386, .508, A/A+). Since I still needed to fill both C and 1B, I decided to get my 1B in round 4. 2017 also provides me with two catchers, Robinson Chirinos (.258, .363, .481, D+ arm) and Jonathan Lucroy (.268, .348, .349, C- arm). Sadly, none of my three catchers can throw anybody out. The other key fact on why I selected this year is that I got a 5th SP, Yu Darvish (187, 3.20) and two more strong RPs, Keone Kela (39, 1.55) and Alex Claudio (83, 2.25). Oh, my last pick is a defensive OF, Carlos Gomez (.259, .343, .438, B-/A).

Pick 4.08 - 2005 Mark Teixeira
Despite picking 8th in the player draft, I was able to get my first choice, '05 Mark Teixeira (.398, .379, .553, A/C+). '07 Teixeira went at pick 4.04 and he might be a bit better than the '05 version, but with 155 fewer PAs. Teixeira easily becomes my team's best hitter. I did have to sweat out mllama54's pick as I knew he needed a 1B and picked one spot in front of me. He settled on '94 Will Clark (whom I probably would have taken if he took Teixeira). Rafael Palmeiro had a couple of decent seasons available as well.

Pitching Stats
Only drafted 1435 innings: 2.71 erc#, .220 oav#, 1.14 whip#, 0.55 hr/9#

Hitting Stats
Including platoons, excluding scrubs: .296 avg#, .361 obp#, .471 slg#, .832 ops#

Outlook:
Once again, I focused more on pitching and defense than offense. As a result, I have zero shares of Ivan Rodriguez, Alex Rodriguez, Juan Gonzalez or any of the other big-name Rangers sluggers. My pitching should be near the top of the league, but I fear that this team will struggle to score runs. I have zero players with a real life OBP# > .390. Is that bad? It will be fun watching Andrus and Wright combine for 50-60 + plays at SS/CF though. This is probably a 75-win team. If my offense can be at least league average (by beating up other teams' terrible SPs), then we can maybe win 80+ games.

Mid-Season Update

Record: 48-38, .558 (tied for 1st out of 12, in AL)
Exp Win%: .505 (5th)
1-Run Games: 19-8 (2-2 in extras)
Offense Rank: 11th
Pitching Rank: 1st
Defense Rank (Range): 1st
Defense Rank (Fielding): 1st

Comments: So this is what is feels like to have a team be very lucky in close games? 19-8 in 1-run games is outrageous. When you are at the opposite extremes for hitting and pitching, it usually means a .500 team, and based on my run differential, that's what this team should be. But being +11 in 1-run games equates to be +10 in the actual win-loss record.

The pitching is doing exactly what I expected, ranked 1st overall. '89 Nolan Ryan (8-6, 3.68, 201 Ks) has an outside chance at 400 strikeouts. '17 Yu Darvish (10-7, 3.28) and '89 Kevin Brown (8-6, 4.26) have been ok. My 4th SP, Charlie Hough has been terrible (5.82) but somehow is 7-7. The key to this team is the surprising bullpen performance. '89 Jeff Russell (21/25 saves, 2.93) did have a 1.08 ERA thru 28 games, but since then has two blowups and an ERA over 10 over the last 7 games. But he's mostly been solid. But five other bullpen guys have ERAs between 2.42 and 3.70, so no complaints here. Funny thing is that this bullpen is worse (in real life) than my Astros bullpen (which is getting killed).

As predicted, the offense does really suck. Ruben Sierra (.301/.346/.491) is the best hitter, and free agent Mark Teixeira (.254/.355/.427) is finally coming around after being around .210 most of the first half of the season. The defense has been fantastic, and George Wright and Elvis Andrus have combined for 24 + plays so far, so a little below my 50-60 prediction.

Final thoughts
This is one of those rare instances where one could argue that a good bullpen and a great defense may be helping my team win close games, although we've already seen that not being the case for some of my other teams. I do expect to start losing some 1-run games. Hopefully, this team will still finish over .500 and qualify for round 3, b/c I can't assume my unlucky teams will turn it around.

Posted by schwarze on 4/11/2024 6:44:00 PM (view original):
Team: Padres 2023, 1995, 1975
Ballpark: San Diego Stadium

Pick 1.06 - 2023 Padres
I had picks #1 and #10 in league 2. Since my top pick was the 1978 Brewers, this pick was had to be Padres team. The split was 4 Brewers / 5 Padres teams when my turn came up. Unlike footballmm11, I tend to avoid teams in the 2020's. I hate the low-inning pitchers (with low IP/G) plus many of the best offensive players are HR-dependent low-OBP guys who have terrible range (probably b/c of all the strikeouts). Here's a question... which is rarer, a no-hitter or a pitcher in the 2020's to reach 200 innings? Did I mention that I hate 2020's baseball? So with that lead-in, why in the hell did I take 2023 as the 6th Padres team off the board? They have a couple of decent pitchers, including SPs Blake Snell (180, 2.57) and Michael Wacha (134, 2.94) and some useful RPs... Robert Suarez (28, 1.65), Tom Cosgrove (51, 1.93). Note that I did not roster walk-machine Josh Hader despite his 2.06 ERC# for reasons I've already mentioned in previous posts. But the main reason I like this team is they provide four solid starting batters (including three great defensive infielders). Ha-Seong Kim (.267, .354, .381, A/B+) will play 2B. Manny Machado (.264, .322, .445, A/A) was slotted to play 3B but was replaced later. Juan Soto (.281, .413, .502, B/D+) is a corner OF and is my best hitter. Xander Bogaerts (.292, .353, .422, A/B) starts at SS. And since I wasn't able to get a full-time catcher, Luis Campusano (.326, .359, .473, D- arm) has to be rostered.

Pick 2.07 - 1995 Padres
The problem with taking a 2020's team early is that I still need a ton of innings. I used a first round pick and didn't even get 400 innings. I really could use '75 or '76 Randy Jones here, but I need more offense. After researching a bit, I find that 1995 gives me two potential *mediocre* SPs, with Joey Hamilton (230, 3.14) and Andy Ashby (217, 3.48), along with a mediocre RP, Doug Bochtler (51, 3.40). Why would I use this pick on mediocrity? Because I needed the 3.5 starting position players. Tony Gwynn (.368, .402, .471, A/D+) can play almost full-time. Ken Caminiti (.302, .379, .500, C-/A) is a huge offensive upgrade over Machado at 3B plus I much prefer the switch hitter. Steve Finley (.297, .364, .407, C/B-) will have to start if CF since he's got my best range. And Brad Ausmus (.292, .352, 399, A+ arm) gets me to 90% of the needed PA at catcher. Scott Livingstone (.336, .379, .477, C/D-) was going to be just a pinch hitter, but based on my next pick, he will platoon at 1B. This season was a key pick for me. Now I feel that I can score some runs.

Pick 3.06 - 1975 Padres
Watching 2009 and 1976 go two picks in front of me, now I have to sweat out ronthegenius. With everybody else sniping me, there is no way he passes on 1975, right? Well, miracle of all miracles, he takes 1997. Before this pick, I have 900 innings and there's not great innings either. I was thrilled that I get to add Randy Jones (285, 2.34) to my staff, who is now my ace. Also thrilled to add Brent Strom (121, 2.65), who will pitch in long-relief. Not so thrilled to add Danny Frisella (98, 3.61), who will pitch mop-up, but his addition gives my team 1463 innings. There is not much on the offense, which is why this team was still around in round 3. I am starting platooning Willie McCovey (.254, .346, .467, C-/D+) at 1B. Johnny Grubb (.272, .343, .370, A/B) will be a defensive replacement for Finley in CF. Gene Locklear (.324, .379, .446) is a pinch hitter. Hector Torres will give my three infielders some rest, while Bob Davis will get a few games in at catcher. Neither Torres or Davis can hit a lick. Maybe they will both play at the same time, when my worst SP (Ashby) has to start, with Frisella coming in mopup.

Pick 4.07 - 1999 Trevor Hoffman
I considered upgrading at catcher or 1B but there just wasn't a hitter worth rostering at those positions. Maybe I should have added '93 Gwynn who would've been an upgrade over Steve Finley, but I really just needed better pitching. I considered Drew Pomeranz since he had 100 innings, but '99 Trevor Hoffman (68, 1.60) turns into the team's best pitcher.

Pitching Stats
Best 1450 innings: 2.80 erc#, .228 oav#, 1.16 whip#, 0.59 hr/9#

Hitting Stats
Including platoons, excluding scrubs: .297 avg#, .370 obp#, .443 slg#, .814 ops#

Outlook:
At first, I thought the addition of '75 Randy Jones would transform a mediocre team into a playoff contender. Then as I looked at my team a bit closer, I realized that adding Jones transformed this team from a 100-loss team to an 90-loss team. God, what an awful pitching staff I have (even with Jones and Hoffman). 50% of my starting rotation ranks outside the top 30. Andy Ashby is ranked 50th! What have I done? My defense isn't even that great. Maybe my offense is above average, but it's not good enough to withstand poor pitching. I wouldn't be shocked if this team has the lowest salary in the entire tournament. Projection 90 losses.

Mid-Season Update

Record: 52-35, .598 (1st out of 12, in NL)
Exp Win%: .571 (1st)
1-Run Games: 21-9 (7-3 in extras)
Offense Rank: 2nd
Pitching Rank: 7th
Defense Rank (Range): 5th
Defense Rank (Fielding): 11th

Comments: Well, the luck factor has been on my side - I hadn't even realized this b/c not that long ago, we were slightly above .500 in 1-run games, but we had a recent 8-0 run in 1-run outcomes. Other than this luck, I really don't understand why this team is 17 games over .500. We're 2nd in runs scored, but 4.7 runs per game isn't exactly the '27 Yankees. I think part of this is the fact that my home park is San Diego Stadium, which isn't as extreme as Petco.

'23 Juan Soto (.272/.419/.473) leads the offense. '95 Tony Gwynn (.313/.358/.431), '95 Ken Caminiti (.285/.348/.407) and '23 Ha-Seong Kim (.274/.346/.415) have been decent. Ironically, I may have the worst starting 1B in the NL, with a washed up '75 Willie McCovey (.211/.292/.386). The defense hasn't really helped the team, as I never was able to get a good defensive OF, so of course, Steve Finley's B- range has resulted in 6 minus plays so far. I have 28 minus plays as a tea, vs only 17 plus plays. At least, we're not making errors.

I was so thrilled to get '75 Randy Jones and his quantity of innings has been key, but the quality of his starts hasn't been what I expected. Sure 9-7, 3.76 is not terrible, but it's nearly the worst ERA of my four SPs. He's only 2 games over .500 for a team that's 17 games over .500. Mediocre SPs, Joey Hamilton (12-4, 3.26) and Andy Ashby (9-7, 3.66) are pitching better. The key to this team's close games may be my free agent pick, '99 Trevor Hoffman. He is 3-0, 8/9 in saves with a ridiculous 0.39 ERA in 33 games / 23 innings (Yes - I have a quick hook). Unless I allow him to pitch in non-save situations, and/or let him throw more than 15 pitches in a game, he's never going to get to his 68 real life innings though.

Final thoughts
This team has been a bright spot in an otherwise frustrating round 2. Teams that should be winning, aren't winning while teams that shouldn't be winning, are winning. If there is no rhyme or reason to why teams are having or not having success, then why even go to the bother of trying to figure all of this out. As it stands now, I should get the maximum of 4 teams to advance to round 3, but with all the luck on close games that could flip the other way, who really knows. With this Padres team being on the lucky side of the ledger - this is the first time since early in the last juice tournament that my aggregate record in 1-run games is over .500.