Posted by schwarze on 4/10/2024 1:58:00 PM (view original):
Team: Brewers 1978, 1981, 1989
Ballpark: County Stadium
I had the #2 and #4 overall picks in the Top 8 Draft. Going into round 2, I wanted either 2019 Astros or 1981 Astros. But when footballmm11 took 2019 Astros with the first overall pick, I knew I could wait until pick #4 to take the 1981 Astros since footballmm11 also had pick #3. So that's when I started researching every other franchise. I was mostly looking for franchises with poor pitching that had a team with at least two really good SPs. I narrowed down my two choices to 2011 Angels and 1978 Brewers. Using a 200-inning minimum, the '11 Angels have the two of the top four SPs in Angels history. The '78 Brewers have two of the top eight SPs in Brewers history. The Brewers also have a plethora of useful hitters, so that's the direction I went.
Pick 1.01 - 1978 Brewers
Besides starting pitchers Mike Caldwell (294 ip, 3.41 erc#) and Lary Sorenson (281, 2.91), this team has one RP worth rostering in Bill Castro (50, 2.78). I ended up rostering the team's entire outfield with Larry Hisle (.290 avg#, .375 obp#, .532 slg#), Ben Oglivie (.303, .372, .496, B/A-) and Gorman Thomas (.246, .352, .513). Sixto Lezcano (.292, .379, .458) didn't make the cut. I could have added 3-4 infielders, although Yount and Cooper were eventually replaced with better versions of themselves. Sal Bando (.285, .373, .438, A-/A) will be my starting 3B while super-sub Don Money (.293, .362, .439) will play a little 1B, 2B and 3B.
Pick 2.12 - 1981 Brewers
I really wanted 2016 to add RP depth, but pedrocerrano sniped that season one pick in front of me. Getting sniped one pick away will be a recurring trend for my teams. So, instead of adding RP depth let's add one of the best RP in Brewers history, '81 Rollie Fingers (116, 1.54). He's going to have to pitch in 100 games for me, cause he's the only guy I got that can get outs late in the game. RP Jamie Easterly (93, 2.66) won't give up any HRs but his 5.0 bb/9# could be problematic. A last minute add was SP Pete Vuckovich (223, 3.56). You know this season was good enough to go 14-4 in 1981. He's my SP4, so I'd be happy to get a .500 season from him. I did get two starting batters from this season including a much needed lefty bat in Cecil Cooper (.320, .367, .500, C+/A-). '81 Robin Yount (.273, .316, 424, A/A+) replaces '78 Robin Yount (.293, .325, .427, C/A+) mainly due to his '78 season having only 535 PA. Charlie Moore (.301, .355, .415) will start at catcher vs LHP. Jim Gantner (B/A-) is a defensive replacement 2B. Ed Romero is nothing more than a scrub who can play the infield. Until round 4, light-hitting Ted Simmons was going to make the roster.
Pick 3.01 - 1989 Brewers
Picking back to back is a huge advantage, since I can make sure my two picks mesh well. I couldn't make the 1981 pick, if I was picking in the middle of the draft as it really only added 3-4 pieces. But 1981+1989 fit well together. I got my SP3 with Chris Bosio (235, 2.98) and also added some RP depth, with Dan Plesac (62, 2.40), Mark Kudson (124, 3.10) and Tony Fossas (61, 3.13). I later added Teddy Higuera (136, 3.39) in case I ever need to spot-start a LHP. I also added 2B/3B Paul Molitor (.315, .380, .438, B-/A-), who is similar statistically to 3B Sal Bando. Molitor will probably start at 2B, but I can mix and match Money/Molitor/Bando at 2B/3B depending on which hitters get hot. I also get to clone Robin Yount (.318, .384, .511) and play him in the outfield, moving Gorman Thomas to a backup role. Charlie O'Brien is simply a third string catcher.
Pick 4.12 - 1973 Darrell Porter
I wanted RP Doug Jones, but taxman2008 grabbed him at 4.07. Although any pitcher upgrade would be beneficial, there just weren't any pitchers with enough innings to move the needle. Meanwhile, my main catcher was '81 Ted Simmons (.216, .266., 381). I didn't want two automatic outs in the 8-9 holes, so I decided to upgrade the position. I chose '73 Darrell Porter (.254, .364, .458, A+ arm) over BJ Surhoff (.320, .370, .468, D arm) due to the arm. I've got to keep baserunners on first so my team's solid infield defense can turn some DPs.
Pitching Stats
Best 1450 innings: 2.73 erc#, .240 oav#, 1.14 whip#, 0.48 hr/9#)
Hitting Stats
Including platoons, excluding scrubs: .296 avg#, .365 obp#, .473 slg#, .838 ops#
Outlook:
Without building every other person's roster, it's really hard to know how good my Brewers stack up. I don't have any of the 2020's seasons with all the good short-inning RPs, so my bullpen will probably get destroyed (what else is new?). I do have 3 of the top 20 SPs in Brewers history (150+ ips). My offense looks to be below average when compared to other teams. But my defense should be above average. Feels like 75-80 win team..
Mid-Season Update
Record: 37-47, .440 (11th out of 12, in AL)
Exp Win%: .548 (4th)
1-Run Games: 10-18 (1-9 in extras)
Offense Rank: 11th
Pitching Rank: 1st
Defense Rank (Range): 2nd
Defense Rank (Fielding): 2nd
Comments: What a huge disappointment this team has been, although it's mostly due to bad luck. There is so much parity in these leagues that the 1-run record has a disproportional importance in overall success. Some of my best teams (based on Exp. Win%) are below .500 while some of my worst teams are way above .500. Despite stud RP '81 Rollie Fingers having a good season for me (4-3, 8/9 in saves, 0.87 whip, 2.16 ERA), this team has the worst 1-run (and extra-inning) record in the league. My team is 16/18 in saves. So the idea that having great pitching, a solid defense and a good bullpen means having a good record in 1-run games is bullsh*t. It's all luck. Ace SP '78 Mike Caldwell started off terribly (2-8, 3.91) but has been good as of late (9-9, 3.02 current). Lary Sorensen is 10-3, 3.76 and threw a 105-pitch no-hitter (only blemish was a 9th inning walk). The pitching is ranked #1 and isn't the issue.
The offense has been awful. I should have rostered Sixto Lezcano over Gorman Thomas (.168/.227/.355) who has been permanently benched. Don Money (.302/.361/.424) has supplanted Sal Bando (.259/.332/.397) as my everyday 3B. But the biggest disappointment is my free agent, Darrell Porter (.218/.299/.457). I should have went with weak-hitting '81 Ted Simmons and instead used my free agent on a *good* hitter. It appears that I do have two automatic outs at the bottom of the lineup.
Final thoughts
Maybe I should have taken 2021 Brewers (pedrocerrano's team is 53-31), but if I take them with the first pick, I probably still don't get 2016 since I am drafting last in round 2. My team's pitching is actually better than pedrocerrano's dominant team. But his team has scored 100 runs more than my team. Clearly, there should be some positive regression coming in 1-run games, but even 80 games may not be enough of a sample size to made up the ground needed to qualify for round 3.
5/11/2024 10:33 PM (edited)