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The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position.
Game of the Week: #4 Carolina 21 @ #14 Tampa Bay 24
There are only three games in Week 6 that pit two teams with winning records (Atlanta vs. Chicago and Dallas vs. Arizona are the others), and two of them include teams from the NFC South. This game is big for the division that has been far better than most expected. The beauty of the NFL may also be summed up in this game, where we are actually predicting our #4 team to lose to our #14 team (we are also predicting #12 to beat #3 this week). Parity is a great thing. In the NFL right now, there appears to be one great team (the New York Giants), one pretty good team (Washington), two horrible teams (Detroit and St. Louis), two teams that find ways to play just below their competition each week (Houston and Cincinnati) and 26 teams lumped together. When that happens and so many teams are even, divisional matchups between two teams with winning records become absolutely crucial. With Brian Griese banged up and mostly ineffective and Joey Galloway like still out, look for Jeff Garcia to step in... and hand the ball off to Earnest Graham and Warrick Dunn en route to the narrow Tampa Bay victory. In 10,001 simulations the Buccaneers average 143.6 yards on 30.6 carries (4.7 yards-per-carry) to win 56.7% of the time.
Click on the Boxscores below to see detailed team and player stat projections for every game.
Week 6 Scores for Every NFL Game
|Matchup||Home Win%||Avg Score||St. Louis @ Washington||95||11-35||Boxscore||Cincinnati @ New York||91.5||14-29||Boxscore||Detroit @ Minnesota||89.9||16-31||Boxscore||New England @ San Diego||80.9||21-31||Boxscore||Jacksonville @ Denver||71||23-29||Boxscore||Oakland @ New Orleans||62.7||23-28||Boxscore||Dallas @ Arizona||61||26-30||Boxscore||Carolina @ Tampa Bay||56.7||21-24||Boxscore||Baltimore @ Indianapolis||56.1||20-23||Boxscore||Chicago @ Atlanta||47.5||26-22||Boxscore||Miami @ Houston||39.9||27-21||Boxscore||Green Bay @ Seattle||37.2||26-19||Boxscore||Philadelphia @ San Francisco||30.4||30-21||Boxscore||New York @ Cleveland||25.1||28-17||Boxscore|
Paul Bessire is the Senior Quantitative Analyst and Content Manager for WhatIfSports.com and a member of the Pro Football Writers of America. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!