Each Monday morning, we will preview every college football DI FBS game of the upcoming week. All of our college football content, including our most recent power rankings and links to the pre-season preview are located here. If you want to take WhatIfSports weekly college football and/or NFL picks with you (to your MySpace, Facebook or personal homepage), please see the widget below on the right or at this page.
The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of these games are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position.
Games of the Week: #5 Oklahoma State 36 @ #1 Texas Tech 32
Writing an explanation as to why our top team will lose to our fifth-ranked team at home may not seem easy, particularly when "hangover" is not programmed into the sim, but Oklahoma State is simply a tough matchup for Texas Tech (tougher than Texas). The Cowboys are a complete offensive team with one of the best ground games in the country to go with a dynamic playmaker at receiver in Dez Bryant. They also consistently win the turnover battle (as does Texas Tech, but unlike Texas). 274 rushing yards per game on 5.7 yards per carry could go a long way toward keeping Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree off of the field, especially if Oklahoma State can get an early lead. With an almost non-existent running game, Texas was able to expose Texas Tech deep (don't forget Jordan Shipley's early drop). With Kendall Hunter and company keeping the Red Raiders honest, Bryant could have a huge day in this spotlight game. Last Saturday's Big 12 showcase was an all-time great. "On paper" (in the computer), this one shapes up to be just as close and exciting. Oklahoma State adds even more chaos to BCS race by winning 54.2% of the time by an average score of 36-32.
#7 Alabama 24 vs. #20 LSU 19
Like every team in the SEC but Florida, neither of these teams is as good as its ranking in the BCS; yet, this game could definitely still mean quite a bit in the BCS title race. Both of these teams are looking to run the ball and stop the run - and they usually succeed in doing so. In this case, Alabama is a little better at both of those things and LSU completely lacks the passing game to overcome that disparity with a big play or two. Homefield advantage is all that keeps this close. Alabama wins 53.2% of the time and by and average score of 24-19.
#2 Penn State is on the road against a very talented, yet inconsistent #27 Iowa team. The Nittany Lions win 69.7% of the time and by and average score of 29-20, to make the chance that all three BCS unbeatens lose this weekend 7.7%. However, the chance that all three undefeated BCS teams win this weekend is just 17.3%, which leaves a 75% likelihood that at least one of those three loses. Elsewhere, #14 Utah sneaks by #12 TCU in Salt Lake City 61.2% of the time, #3 USC blows out #19 Cal 33-9 on average, #17 UNC edges #18 Georgia Tech at home 61.7% of the time and #22 West Virginia defeats #26 Cincinnati by two touchdowns in Morgantown.
Week 11 Scores for Every FBS Game
|Matchup||Home Win%||Avg Score|
|San Diego State @ Brigham Young||95||10-36|
|California @ USC||95||9-33|
|Tennessee-Martin @ Auburn||95||4-33|
|Utah State @ Boise State||95||11-31|
|Baylor @ Texas||91.5||22-40|
|Miami (OH) @ Buffalo||91||11-28|
|North Texas @ Florida Atlantic||91||15-34|
|Michigan @ Minn.||90||12-28|
|Kansas State @ Missouri||90||25-34|
|Western Kentucky @ Troy||88.1||13-27|
|Army @ Rice||86.6||15-31|
|Wyoming @ Tennessee||83.6||8-22|
|NC St. @ Duke||80.6||14-24|
|Colorado St. @ Air Force||80.6||16-30|
|Cincinnati @ W. Virginia||79.6||17-31|
|Marshall @ East Carolina||79.6||16-26|
|Louisville @ Pittsburgh||78.1||19-28|
|LA-Monroe @ Mid Tenn||76.6||17-28|
|Tulane @ Houston||75.6||22-32|
|UTEP @ LA-Laf||72.6||26-36|
|Syracuse @ Rutgers||72.1||20-28|
|Northern Illinois @ Ball State||71.6||21-30|
|Virginia @ WF||71.1||13-20|
|Arkansas @ S. Carolina||71.1||16-25|
|Toledo @ Akron||69.7||20-27|
|Purdue @ Michigan State||67.7||16-23|
|Stanford @ Oregon||65.7||17-27|
|Kansas @ Nebraska||64.7||27-34|
|Louisiana Tech @ San Jose State||63.2||12-18|
|Bowling Green @ Ohio||62.7||17-23|
|GA Tech @ North Carolina||61.7||19-24|
|Clemson @ Florida State||61.2||18-24|
|TCU @ Utah||61.2||17-22|
|Iowa State @ Colorado||59.7||17-21|
|New Mexico @ UNLV||59.2||22-26|
|Memphis @ SMU||50.7||26-28|
|Hawaii @ New Mexico State||47.3||24-21|
|Alabama @ LSU||46.8||24-19|
|Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech||45.8||36-32|
|Wisconsin @ Indiana||39.3||27-21|
|Notre Dame @ Boston College||37.8||20-14|
|Illinois @ W. Michigan||36.3||32-24|
|Maryland @ Virginia Tech||35.3||24-17|
|Ohio State @ Northwestern||33.3||21-13|
|Penn State @ Iowa||30.3||29-20|
|Nevada @ Fresno State||30.3||37-29|
|Arkansas St. @ Fla. Int.||27.4||25-15|
|S. Miss @ UCF||21.9||25-12|
|Oklahoma @ Texas A&M||16.4||37-22|
|Arizona St. @ Washington||10||29-14|
|Oregon State @ UCLA||8.5||30-12|
|Georgia @ Kentucky||5.5||33-11|
|Arizona @ Washington St.||5||35-7|
|Florida @ Vanderbilt||5||38-9|
Ever wanted to be in be in charge of your own college football program? With Gridiron Dynasty from WhatIfSports.com, you have a chance to do just that - and it's completely FREE for a limited time ($10.95 value). From recruiting and running practice to gameplanning and scheduling - it is all under your control. Start at DIII and try to work your way up to winning the DI championship at your favorite school. Play for free today using the promo code BTBGD.
Promo code is valid for new Gridiron Dynasty users in first season only. Offer expires 12/31/2008.
We hope that you enjoy our Beyond the Boxscore feature. As with all of our games, we are willing to listen to feedback and improve this page and content to make it as interesting and user-friendly as possible. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, please contact BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!