Week 13 NCAA Predictions

Scores from every upcoming game
By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com
November 17, 2008

Each Monday morning, we will preview every college football DI FBS game of the upcoming week. All of our college football content, including our most recent power rankings and links to the pre-season preview are located here. If you want to take WhatIfSports weekly college football and/or NFL picks with you (to your MySpace, Facebook or personal homepage), please see the widget below on the right or at this page.

The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of these games are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position.

Game of the Week: #2 Texas Tech 35 @ #3 Oklahoma 41
This is not just a game between two top three teams; it is the game could throw a wrench into everything. With the Big 12 South champion likely making the national championship, many may call this the de facto national semifinal, but three teams could benefit. In the simulations, Oklahoma uses homefield advantage and its lack of exploitable weaknesses to sneak by Texas Tech by 59.4% of the time and by less than a touchdown at 41-35 on average. If that is the case and OU wins by a small margin in a close game, our guess would be that Texas would benefit enough in the polls based on the "lesser loss" approach. My personal opinion would be that Oklahoma, which has destroyed two other teams that could play in BCS games in Cincinnati and TCU, is most deserving of the "Big 12 South championship." My professional opinion (i.e. what the computer would say) is that, if the outcome is exactly what we predict, Oklahoma would likely be slightly ahead of Texas Tech and then Texas in our power rankings (probably #2 behind Florida). The other 40.6% of the time, we don't have to worry... this week at least.

Other Notable Games in Week 13
It almost seems like we could include every game (not involving Florida or Wisconsin) here. In the rivalry games, #12 Ohio State routs Michigan 95% of the time by an average score of 33-8, #14 Utah wins a classic Holy War 58.7% of the time against #15 BYU by an average of 28-24, #21 UNC could use any QB and win at NC State 95% of the time by an average of 34-9, in a thriller, 0-10 Washington gets its first victory 66.7% of the time at 1-10 Washington State by an average score of 20-17 and in that huge #1 Florida/Citadel rivalry, the Gators roll 77-3 (our biggest projected margin of the season). In other games that will have a profound impact on the BCS (non-ACC edition because we don't want to list all of them), #6 Penn State has no problem with Michigan State, emerging victorious 95% of the time by a score of 37-8, #10 Boise State plays a tough game against Nevada, winning 68.5% of its games by a close score of 29-24, #17 Oregon State plays a similar game on the road at Arizona, winning 69.4% of the time by a score of 26-21 and, most importantly, the #20 Cincinnati Bearcats have no problem with Pitt as they roll to the biggest win in school history 73.0% of the time and by a score of 27-18.

Week 13 Scores for Every FBS Game

MatchupHome Win%Avg Score
NC St. @ North Carolina959-34
Cal Poly @ Wisconsin954-54
Michigan @ Ohio State958-33
Michigan State @ Penn State958-37
Tulane @ Tulsa9521-48
Syracuse @ Notre Dame959-31
Citadel @ Florida953-77
North Texas @ Mid Tenn89.612-29
Idaho @ Hawaii8914-32
Army @ Rutgers87.813-31
UTEP @ Houston85.524-40
Miami (OH) @ Toledo8313-27
Marshall @ Rice81.820-33
Stanford @ California81.514-28
LA-Monroe @ Fla. Int.80.914-28
UCF @ Memphis77.112-23
Miami (FL) @ GA Tech76.711-21
Duke @ Virginia Tech74.812-22
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati7318-27
E. Michigan @ Temple7317-27
Air Force @ TCU72.616-26
Iowa State @ Kansas State69.724-33
Florida Atlantic @ Arkansas St.65.123-31
LA-Laf @ Troy6323-30
Tennessee @ Vanderbilt61.910-15
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma59.436-41
Brigham Young @ Utah58.724-28
Connecticut @ South Florida57.919-23
Louisiana Tech @ New Mexico State52.420-22
Boston College @ WF51.513-14
Indiana @ Purdue48.519-21
Florida State @ Maryland46.422-22
Buffalo @ Bowling Green43.722-22
Colorado St. @ Wyoming37.921-19
Northern Illinois @ Kent St.37.826-24
Washington @ Washington St.33.920-17
Mississippi @ LSU32.527-23
Arkansas @ Mississippi State31.619-15
Boise State @ Nevada31.529-24
Akron @ Ohio30.925-21
Oregon State @ Arizona30.626-21
Fresno State @ San Jose State26.726-19
W. Virginia @ Louisville25.723-16
East Carolina @ UAB23.226-19
UNLV @ San Diego State21.526-18
Illinois @ Northwestern19.527-18
Iowa @ Minn.14.428-16
Clemson @ Virginia10.622-10
Ball State @ C. Michigan9.838-23

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