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College Football SimMatchup
WhatIfSports.com utilizes its college football simulation technology to present the most comprehensive, deterministic and unbiased ranking of all teams. We simulated every possible DI FBS match-up one hundred times, and used the winning percentages from 700,000+ games to evaluate every team. All 120 teams are ranked below with their average points for and against from the simulated games. Simulations are based on updated, strength-of-schedule-adjusted stats, so significant week-to-week changes could occur.
Most Notable Storyline:
With back-to-back victories over Oregon and USC, Stanford has exploded onto the national scene. After dominating USC, the Cardinal continued blasting its way up the rankings as well, leaping all the way into the top ten for the first time this season.
Nearly a month ago, heading into Week 8 of the college football season, Stanford simply helped fill in the middle of the pack, winning 65.1% of their 100 games against all other FBS opponents.
Two weeks later, as the Cardinal prepared for their big game with Oregon, they had moved up 14 spots and were winning 71.2% of those games.
Two monumental games later and Toby Gerhart and Stanford are all the way up to eighth in the latest rankings. The Cardinal jumped 14 spots after beating the Ducks and five more this week after whaling on the Trojans. Now eighth in the country, they beat FBS teams nearly 89% of the time
Stanford is averaging 53 points per game over its last two outings. It piled up 469 total yards against USC, including 325 on the ground. The Cardinal racked up more than 500 yards against the Ducks, including 254 on the ground.
The offensive onslaught has help Stanford propel up the rankings and it now actually ranks sixth in scoring against FBS teams, outscoring opponents 46-17.
Just because the Big East race will be settled at the top by Cincinnati and Pittsburgh doesn't mean Rutgers is about to roll over from here on out. The Scarlet Knights won their third game in a row last week, crushing South Florida 31-0. The shutout moves Rutgers up 17 spots in this week's rankings to 17th as they now beat nearly 80% of all other FBS teams.
Florida Atlantic actually officially enjoys the biggest leap. The Owls avoided a three-game losing streak by beating Arkansas State and moving up 19 places this week to #80.
In other notable jumps, Wisconsin not only put Michigan's bowl hopes at risk, the Badgers moved up 10 more spots and while going unnoticed around the country, are now up to 14th in the latest rankings, ahead of Penn State and Iowa. Ole Miss moves up 14 spots after stomping Tennessee, Oregon State leaps 13 spots back into the top 25 and Hawaii gains 15 spots to move back into the upper half of the FBS at #58.
South Florida's freefall continues. The Bulls were ranked as high as 11th earlier this season, but after an undefeated run to start the year, they’ve plummeted 36 spots in the last month. Their latest loss, a shutout by Rutgers, drops them 22 spots, more than any other team this week. South Florida, now 47th in the country, beats FBC opponents just 58.9% of the time.
Winning doesn't always mean improvement in these rankings. Just ask BYU. The Cougars won their second straight game since losing to TCU at home, but drop 13 spots in the rankings this week after topping winless New Mexico by less than a touchdown.
In other notable losses, 19 seems to be the magic number as Kansas State, Wake Forest and Colorado all fall 19 spots. And Arizona and USC, each losers in Pac-10 play, each drop 12 spots to 21st and 22nd, respectively.
Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage (everyone plays everyone 100 times)
|2.||TCU Horned Frogs||-||97.2||51.5||9.2|
|4.||Alabama Crimson Tide||+1||95.4||44.2||8.2|
|6.||Boise State Broncos||-||93.0||45.9||13.2|
|7.||Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets||-||92.4||51.5||19.2|
|10.||Ohio State Buckeyes||+1||87.5||34.7||12.3|
|12.||Virginia Tech Hokies||+11||82.5||34.8||16.0|
|13.||Oregon State Beavers||+13||82.1||34.9||16.0|
|15.||Oklahoma State Cowboys||+1||81.2||35.8||16.0|
|17.||Rutgers Scarlet Knights||+17||79.6||32.4||15.3|
|23.||Penn State Nittany Lions||-2||76.2||30.8||16.1|
|25.||West Virginia Mountaineers||+5||75.2||33.7||18.1|
|27.||Brigham Young Cougars||-13||74.6||33.9||19.7|
|29.||Texas Tech Red Raiders||-2||72.5||28.5||17.4|
|30.||Air Force Falcons||+10||72.4||29.7||16.3|
|31.||California Golden Bears||+10||72.1||31.0||19.0|
|33.||Nevada Wolf Pack||+6||69.6||34.5||22.4|
|37.||Miami (FL) Hurricanes||-15||66.0||28.6||19.2|
|40.||South Carolina Gamecocks||+13||63.0||24.7||17.9|
|41.||Michigan State Spartans||+4||63.0||27.5||20.6|
|43.||Notre Dame Fighting Irish||-7||62.8||31.1||23.7|
|44.||Southern Miss Golden Eagles||+4||61.9||27.3||21.4|
|45.||Fresno State Bulldogs||-17||60.9||35.4||28.2|
|47.||South Florida Bulls||-22||58.9||26.9||22.8|
|48.||North Carolina Tar Heels||+12||58.2||18.9||15.6|
|49.||Northern Illinois Huskies||+7||58.2||26.1||21.6|
|50.||Florida State Seminoles||+2||57.9||32.3||28.0|
|51.||Boston College Eagles||-1||56.5||21.6||18.5|
|54.||Utah State Aggies||+13||54.7||27.2||25.0|
|55.||Central Michigan Chippewas||-||53.7||24.8||22.5|
|56.||Kansas State Wildcats||-19||53.1||23.7||22.0|
|62.||Wake Forest Demon Deacons||-19||49.3||23.0||23.8|
|63.||North Carolina State Wolfpack||-1||47.8||21.8||23.8|
|64.||Texas A&M Aggies||-13||45.6||23.1||25.0|
|65.||Southern Methodist Mustangs||+11||44.5||20.7||24.9|
|66.||Illinois Fighting Illini||+2||43.9||22.3||26.1|
|70.||East Carolina Pirates||-||42.8||18.8||22.6|
|71.||Tulsa Golden Hurricane||-8||42.5||24.2||28.9|
|73.||Arizona State Sun Devils||-16||41.8||16.8||20.7|
|74.||Mississippi State Bulldogs||-9||41.2||20.1||25.2|
|80.||Florida Atlantic Owls||+19||35.1||21.5||30.9|
|81.||Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders||-1||35.0||17.0||26.2|
|83.||Minnesota Golden Gophers||-9||34.3||16.0||24.9|
|86.||Kent State Golden Flashes||+2||32.3||13.8||23.4|
|90.||Louisiana Tech Bulldogs||+3||30.2||16.5||27.3|
|91.||Iowa State Cyclones||-6||29.7||17.4||29.2|
|92.||Arkansas State Red Wolves||-11||29.2||15.5||27.4|
|94.||Marshall Thundering Herd||-2||28.6||14.9||27.1|
|95.||Duke Blue Devils||-6||25.5||13.5||27.3|
|96.||Western Michigan Broncos||+1||24.7||14.3||30.4|
|98.||Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns||-4||22.6||12.9||29.8|
|99.||Army Black Knights||+4||22.0||11.9||29.2|
|100.||Colorado State Rams||+5||22.0||11.3||27.7|
|101.||North Texas Mean Green||+6||21.3||15.5||33.0|
|102.||Ball State Cardinals||-2||20.7||13.0||31.1|
|106.||Bowling Green Falcons||+3||18.3||10.9||31.3|
|107.||San Diego State Aztecs||+1||17.4||10.4||30.1|
|110.||Tulane Green Wave||+1||15.5||12.3||33.3|
|111.||Miami (OH) RedHawks||+1||11.5||8.0||34.1|
|112.||Western Kentucky Hilltoppers||+1||10.8||10.6||40.4|
|114.||Florida International Golden Panthers||+5||7.8||7.4||37.5|
|116.||New Mexico Lobos||-2||7.3||6.1||34.8|
|117.||New Mexico State Aggies||-1||6.3||6.8||38.3|
|118.||San Jose State Spartans||-1||5.9||8.3||40.1|
|119.||Washington State Cougars||-4||4.9||7.3||39.5|
|120.||Eastern Michigan Eagles||-||4.9||6.6||41.4|
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Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!