Week 5 predictions for every D-I/FBS college football game
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Each Monday morning, Whatifsports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including the home team's chances of winning (Home Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.
Check out our 2010 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Locks and Upsets of the Week available on Wednesdays.
The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those player's are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.
Game of the Week: Stanford (12) vs Oregon (7)
If you have the chance to procure a ticket to this Saturday's showdown in the PAC-10, you are one Lucky Duck.
Thanks, try the veal.
As tired as that one liner is, the Stanford Cardinal and Oregon Ducks are ready for the first of the month to wake-up, wake-up the rest of the country. With the SEC "down" this year, the Cardinal versus Ducks in primetime on national television hands the left-coast a platform to make a mark and prove that they do belong in the power-conference discussion. All of this is attainable without USC assistance. Sometimes fresh blood can be good for the game.
As I pointed out in last week's Heisman Trophy piece with Whatifsports.com's college football insider, Chris Rix, Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck may be the best college football player you don't know much about. Trying to stay up for the 11:15pm EST kick-offs are part of the reason he flies below the radar.
Luck did throw his first two interceptions of the season last Saturday at Notre Dame. However, those two aerial errors pale in comparison to his full body of work. Through four games this year he has tallied 11 touchdowns and thrown for 912 yards with a 62.7 completion percentage. Whatifsports.com staff writer, Joel Beall, had the privilege of watching Luck in person against the Irish and says he's the real deal. Bear in mind, this analysis is coming from a Notre Dame fan.
Stanford, ranked 9th in the AP, is starting the season 4-0 for the first time since Ronald Reagan was in office and is averaging the 4th most points per game in the country (48.0ppg) while holding opponents to just 13.8 points per game (12th/country).
Oregon proved it could handle the heat, literally, and stayed in the kitchen with a big road win at Arizona State. Game-time temperature in Tempe Saturday night was announced as 100-degrees.
The ball-hawking Ducks' defense, ranked 3rd in the country in points allowed (11.0/gm), forced the Sun Devils to turn the ball over seven (7!!) times. Steven Threet threw four interceptions and the team lost three fumbles. Two of the turnovers were returned for six points.
The unusual part of the Ducks' offensive attack, first in points scored (57.8/gm), was they went to the air instead of the ground against Arizona State. Oregon ranks third in the country in rushing yards (321.8/gm). Yet, in this contest, Darron Thomas (Jeremiah who?) threw for 260 yards and two touchdowns. The air game outgained the ground by over 100 yards.
The main question in Saturday's game will be: Can these two teams break the scoreboard - as the 1st ranked offense hosts the 4th ranked offense? Then there's the chance it becomes a defensive battle (highly unlikely) with the 3rd ranked defense taking on the 12th.
The Whatifsports.com college simulation engine "played" this game 101 times and the computer likes the Oregon Ducks 62.4-percent of the time by an average score 37-28.
Saturday's football buffet includes two other premiere match-ups that are worth highlighting.
The Red River Rivalry takes a back seat this season. Texas and Oklahoma did not help the hype with their underachieving performances against UCLA (Longhorns loss) and Cincinnati (Sooners gave up 305 passing yards) on Saturday. Still this game invokes a lot of interest and Mack Brown's team will have the chance to save face one week after being exposed. In 101 simulations, the college football simulation engine likes Texas 69.3-percent of the time upsetting Oklahoma at home.
Alabama survived their own scare by rallying back to beat Arkansas in their toughest test this season. Mark Ingram showcased his skills as he tries to earn a second Heisman Trophy and the Tide washed away Ryan Mallett's chances of winning the coveted trophy by picking the QB off three times. Some thought the Florida Gators were ripe for the picking at Kentucky. Urban Meyer sent a message begging to differ. Freshman quarterback/running back Trey Burton accounted for six of Florida's seven touchdowns against the Wildcats. In 101 simulations, the college football simulation engine likes the Crimson Tide 76.2-percent of the time.
Please Note: the Air Force, Louisville and Oregon State games have been re-simulated on 9/30 to account for injuries.
College Football Week 5
|East Carolina Pirates||6.9||11||Boxscore|
|@ North Carolina Tar Heels||93.1||34|
|Miami (FL) Hurricanes||49.5||25||Boxscore|
|@ Clemson Tigers||50.5||26|
|Duke Blue Devils||57.4||28||Boxscore|
|@ Maryland Terrapins||42.6||28|
|Notre Dame Fighting Irish||64.4||27||Boxscore|
|@ Boston College Eagles||35.6||24|
|Virginia Tech Hokies||73.3||36||Boxscore|
|@ North Carolina State Wolfpack||26.7||31|
|Florida State Seminoles||75.2||31||Boxscore|
|@ Virginia Cavaliers||24.8||24|
|Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets||84.2||36||Boxscore|
|@ Wake Forest Demon Deacons||15.8||20|
|@ Connecticut Huskies||95.0||37|
|Florida International Golden Panthers||5.0||6||Boxscore|
|@ Pittsburgh Panthers||95.0||50|
|Tulane Green Wave||9.9||16||Boxscore|
|@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights||90.1||34|
|Florida Atlantic Owls||13.9||24||Boxscore|
|@ South Florida Bulls||86.1||39|
|Penn State Nittany Lions||49.5||20||Boxscore|
|@ Iowa Hawkeyes||50.5||22|
|@ Michigan State Spartans||37.6||37|
|@ Indiana Hoosiers||29.7||27|
|@ Minnesota Golden Gophers||7.9||16|
|Ohio State Buckeyes||95.0||39||Boxscore|
|@ Illinois Fighting Illini||5.0||12|
|Ball State Cardinals||5.0||10||Boxscore|
|@ Central Michigan Chippewas||95.0||34|
|@ Toledo Rockets||39.6||25|
|@ Bowling Green Falcons||28.7||19|
|Kent State Golden Flashes||78.2||23||Boxscore|
|@ Miami (OH) RedHawks||21.8||13|
|Northern Illinois Huskies||82.2||27||Boxscore|
|@ Akron Zips||17.8||17|
|@ Western Michigan Broncos||7.9||22|
|@ Eastern Michigan Eagles||5.0||10|
|Washington State Cougars||5.0||8||Boxscore|
|@ UCLA Bruins||95.0||41|
|@ USC Trojans||86.1||38|
|Arizona State Sun Devils||17.8||19||Boxscore|
|@ Oregon State Beavers||82.2||33|
|@ Oregon Ducks||62.4||37|
|Alcorn State Braves||5.0||9||Boxscore|
|@ Mississippi State Bulldogs||95.0||54|
|@ Auburn Tigers||95.0||43|
|@ LSU Tigers||86.1||29|
|@ Alabama Crimson Tide||76.2||29|
|@ Mississippi Rebels||64.4||30|
|Cal Poly Mustangs||5.0||7||Boxscore|
|@ Fresno State Bulldogs||95.0||57|
|@ San Jose State Spartans||95.0||33|
|Louisiana Tech Bulldogs||41.6||27||Boxscore|
|@ Hawaii Warriors||58.4||34|
|Brigham Young Cougars||64.4||28||Boxscore|
|@ Utah State Aggies||35.6||27|
|Boise State Broncos||95.0||60||Boxscore|
|@ New Mexico State Aggies||5.0||8|
|@ Army Black Knights||11.9||16|
|@ Baylor Bears||66.3||35|
|Texas A&M Aggies||52.5||31||Boxscore|
|@ Oklahoma State Cowboys||47.5||31|
|@ Oklahoma Sooners||30.7||22|
|@ Colorado Buffaloes||22.8||24|
|Texas Tech Red Raiders||85.1||34||Boxscore|
|@ Iowa State Cyclones||14.9||21|
|Marshall Thundering Herd||25.7||26||Boxscore|
|@ Southern Miss Golden Eagles||74.3||35|
|Tulsa Golden Hurricane||58.4||29||Boxscore|
|@ Memphis Tigers||41.6||27|
|Southern Methodist Mustangs||95.0||37||Boxscore|
|@ Rice Owls||5.0||22|
|@ Air Force Falcons||69.3||29|
|@ New Mexico Lobos||41.6||24|
|Nevada Wolf Pack||92.1||43||Boxscore|
|@ UNLV Rebels||7.9||25|
|TCU Horned Frogs||95.0||47||Boxscore|
|@ Colorado State Rams||5.0||11|
|Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns||34.7||17||Boxscore|
|@ North Texas Mean Green||65.3||26|
|@ Arkansas State Red Wolves||38.6||24|
Ryan Fowler is the Content Manager for Whatifsports.com. He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org.