Week 5 NCAA Predictions

Scores from every upcoming game
By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com
September 22, 2008

Each Monday morning will preview every college football DI FBS game of the upcoming week. All of our college football content, including our most recent power rankings and links to the pre-season preview are located here. If you want to take WhatIfSports weekly college football and/or NFL picks with you (to your MySpace, Facebook or personal homepage), please see the widget below on the right or at this page.

The inputs to the 201 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position. Non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Games of the Week: #9 Alabama 14 @ #6 Georgia 30
Georgia finally gets a chance to break out as it returns home after two tough road showdowns to face a top ten team in Alabama. It's strength versus strength as Georgia's rush defense, allowing just 1.99 yards per carry, faces Alabama's rush offense, which has gone for 5.92 yards per play on the season. The Crimson Tide has not seen a defense nearly this talented or sound yet on the season, so expect the Bulldogs to win that critical battle in the trenches. They will likely get a couple of big plays from Matthew Stafford and the passing game to lead Georgia to victory 91.5% of the time and by an average score of 30-14.

#45 Virginia Tech 20 @ #23 Nebraska 32
Is Bo Pelini's version of the Blackshirts for real? With back-to-back-to-back games against Virginia Tech, Missouri and Texas Tech, we will find out very soon. Despite being statistically dominated in its last two games, Virginia Tech has found a way to win both contests by a score of 20-17. In one of the few non-conference games of note for Week 5, watch for Joe Ganz and the Cornhuskers offense to light up a much worse than usual Hokies' pass defense (96th in the nation thus far giving up 7.6 yards-per-attempt) en route to a home victory 80.6% of the time and by an average score of 32-20. In front of 80,000+ fans at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, it is going to be very difficult for Virginia Tech to play as poorly as it has this year and still win.

#21 TCU 7 @ #2 Oklahoma 40
USC's numbers are too good to keep them out of the number one spot in our power rankings, but the gap between the Trojans and the #2 Sooners is a lot closer than many may think. Oklahoma may be the most talented team in the country. With eight of its nine remaining games against teams in our top 35 (not to mention a possible Big 12 Championship game versus a team like #4 Missouri), the Sooners will have ample opportunity to prove that fact this season. TCU is a very good team with a defense that is among the top ten or so in the nation. Oklahoma could probably care less. The Sooners have hung 50+ points in all of their games, including when Sam Bradford threw a career-high two interceptions and the team clearly did not play its best game when it hosted a talented Cincinnati Bearcats squad that may have four or five 2009 NFL draft choices on defense. And we have not even discussed Oklahoma's defense... TCU is good enough to keep OU below 50. How about 40? The Sooners win this game 95% of the time and by an average score of 40-7.

Week 5 Scores for Every FBS Game

MatchupHome Win%Avg Score
Arkansas @ Texas9517-35
Rhode Island @ Boston College954-37
Morgan State @ Rutgers956-38
Illinois @ Penn State959-36
TCU @ Oklahoma957-40
Central Arkansas @ Tulsa955-51
Kent St. @ Ball State9513-43
Virginia Military @ Ohio955-36
Weber State @ Utah953-43
Mississippi @ Florida957-39
Mississippi State @ LSU954-50
Western Kentucky @ Kentucky957-28
SMU @ Tulane958-29
Army @ Texas A&M958-30
Fla. Int. @ Toledo959-33
Colorado St. @ California9413-33
UAB @ S. Carolina93.59-29
Houston @ East Carolina9316-32
Alabama @ Georgia91.514-30
Troy @ Oklahoma State90.516-36
Virginia @ Duke89.110-24
North Texas @ Rice89.114-26
Minn. @ Ohio State88.619-32
LA-Laf @ Kansas State87.622-37
Navy @ WF84.121-33
Nevada @ UNLV82.618-30
Virginia Tech @ Nebraska80.620-32
Tennessee @ Auburn80.611-22
Northwestern @ Iowa76.612-23
Maryland @ Clemson75.623-32
Idaho @ San Diego State74.611-20
UCF @ UTEP72.112-20
Marshall @ W. Virginia59.222-26
Stanford @ Washington58.714-19
North Carolina @ Miami (FL)58.222-27
Purdue @ Notre Dame57.718-22
Colorado @ Florida State57.219-22
Connecticut @ Louisville56.721-23
Bowling Green @ Wyoming48.315-12
Buffalo @ C. Michigan47.326-21
New Mexico @ New Mexico State38.323-17
Michigan State @ Indiana31.327-16
Cincinnati @ Akron30.334-24
San Jose State @ Hawaii26.919-9
Northern Illinois @ E. Michigan12.932-18
W. Michigan @ Temple6.535-16
Oregon @ Washington St.5.536-13
Arkansas St. @ Memphis539-18
Pittsburgh @ Syracuse534-9
South Florida @ NC St.539-12
Wisconsin @ Michigan533-9
Fresno State @ UCLA539-13
USC @ Oregon State546-8

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