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The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position.
Game of the Week: #20 San Diego 24 @ #3 Buffalo 26
With no top ten matchups and very few games projected to be close, this is the best game on the schedule in a relatively weak Week 7. Buffalo had one of the best weeks of any team last week - they got healthy and they did not lose. Teams at the top of our Power Rankings have not done so well this season. One of our top three teams has lost its next game in each of the first six weeks (all three lost in Week 6). Will that team be #3 Buffalo this week? Even though they get to play at home against our #20 team, the Bills are the most likely top three team to lose, as the Steelers get winless Cincinnati and the Titans play Kansas City. Oh yeah, and that #20 team is an obvious underachiever, that played in the AFC Championship game last year and has a more talented roster than Buffalo. Trent Edwards is undefeated this season when he can complete the game. After the bye week, he should be back and healthy enough to lead the team to victory. It's hard to see Edwards winning the battle with Phillip Rivers or Marshawn Lynch outplaying LaDainian Tomlinson, but the Bills are very adept at keeping their heads above water and staying out of trouble. San Diego's defense has shown that it is prone to giving up big plays, which means that a Lee Evans deep ball from Edwards could mean the difference. If the game is as close as the sim suggests, the battle may actually come down to Rian Lindell vs. Nate Kaeding. Based on recent perforamnce, Lindell gets the slight edge. The Bills win 50.7% of the time in the sim and by an average score of 26-24.
Click on the Boxscores below to see detailed team and player stat projections for every game.
Week 7 Scores for Every NFL Game
|Matchup||Home Win%||Avg Score||Seattle @ Tampa Bay||93||13-30||Boxscore||Detroit @ Houston||78.7||19-30||Boxscore||Minnesota @ Chicago||78||16-25||Boxscore||Cleveland @ Washington||76.6||18-28||Boxscore||Baltimore @ Miami||73.9||18-26||Boxscore||San Francisco @ New York||66.8||22-28||Boxscore||Denver @ New England||59.4||25-29||Boxscore||New Orleans @ Carolina||57.6||22-25||Boxscore||San Diego @ Buffalo||50.7||24-26||Boxscore||Indianapolis @ Green Bay||50.5||23-25||Boxscore||New York @ Oakland||49.7||25-21||Boxscore||Tennessee @ Kansas City||40.6||24-19||Boxscore||Dallas @ St. Louis||30.8||31-21||Boxscore||Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati||19.9||24-12||Boxscore|
Paul Bessire is the Senior Quantitative Analyst and Content Manager for WhatIfSports.com and a member of the Pro Football Writers of America. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!