Each Tuesday morning during the season, we will preview every NFL game of the upcoming week. All of our NFL content, including our most recent power rankings and weekly fantasy projections, is located here. The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position.
According to the simulations, these are the playoff odds for each team that is still alive:
AFC Playoff Odds
Tennessee, Pittsburgh and Indianapolis: 100%
San Diego: 87.5%
New England: 48.4% (45.1% AFC East, 3.3% WC)
NYJ: 19.7% (14.7% AFC East, 5.0% WC)
NFC Playoff Odds
NYG, Arizona, Carolina (56.0% NFC South) and Atlanta (44.0% NFC South): 100%
Tampa Bay: 34.8%
Chicago: 31.0% (26.6% NFC North, 4.4% Wild Card)
Using the outcomes below, the NFL playoff matchups and seeding look like this:
AFC Wild Card Games
#6 Baltimore (11-5) @ #3 New England (11-5)
#5 Indianapolis (11-5) @ #4 San Diego (8-8)
#1 Tennessee (14-2) and #2 Pittsburgh (12-4) receive byes
Eliminated: New York Jets (10-6), Miami (10-6), Houston (8-8), Denver (8-8), Buffalo (7-9), Jacksonville (5-11), Oakland (4-12), Cleveland (4-12), Cincinnati (3-12-1) and Kansas City (3-13).
NFC Wild Card Games
#6 Tampa Bay (10-6) @ #3 Minnesota (9-7)
#5 Carolina (11-5) @ #4 Arizona (8-8)
#1 New York Giants (13-3) and #2 Atlanta (11-5) receive byes
Eliminated: Philadelphia (9-6-1), Washington (9-7), New Orleans (9-7), Dallas (9-7), Chicago (9-7), Green Bay (6-10), San Francisco (6-10), Seattle (5-11), St. Louis (2-14) and Detroit (0-16), which has a 73.7% chance of ending the season winless.
Week 17 Scores for Every NFL Game
|Matchup||Home Win%||Avg Score||Jacksonville @ Baltimore||88.9||9-25||Boxscore||Cleveland @ Pittsburgh||87.7||9-24||Boxscore||Denver @ San Diego||87.5||15-30||Boxscore||St. Louis @ Atlanta||82.5||17-31||Boxscore||Detroit @ Green Bay||73.7||21-32||Boxscore||Oakland @ Tampa Bay||67.7||17-24||Boxscore||Miami @ New York||59.7||19-23||Boxscore||Carolina @ New Orleans||53.3||25-29||Boxscore||Chicago @ Houston||53.2||18-20||Boxscore||Dallas @ Philadelphia||51.4||18-20||Boxscore||Kansas City @ Cincinnati||49.5||17-19||Boxscore||New York @ Minnesota||43.2||21-21||Boxscore||Tennessee @ Indianapolis||33.9||18-14||Boxscore||Seattle @ Arizona||29.5||24-19||Boxscore||Washington @ San Francisco||25.7||19-14||Boxscore||New England @ Buffalo||24.6||27-20||Boxscore|
Paul Bessire is the Senior Quantitative Analyst and Content Manager for WhatIfSports.com and a member of the Pro Football Writers of America. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!