NFL Playoff Predictions

Playoff Odds (plus boxscores from every Divisional game)
By Paul Bessire,
January 5th, 2009

Each Tuesday morning during the season, we will preview every NFL game of the upcoming week. For our playoff preview, we have simulated from the Divisional playoff round all the way through the playoffs 10,001 times, giving us odds for every team winning in each round. Those odds as well as boxscores for the four upcoming Divisional round games are below. All of our NFL content, including our most recent power rankings and weekly fantasy projections, is located here. The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position.

NFL Playoffs (Winning Percentages from 10,001 simulations)

TeamDIV Win%CC Win%SB Win%
Pittsburgh Steelers64.932.017.7
Philadelphia Eagles59.435.417.5
Tennessee Titans52.830.317.0
Carolina Panthers75.335.516.3
Baltimore Ravens47.226.614.7
New York Giants40.623.811.5
San Diego Chargers35.111.24.2
Arizona Cardinals24.75.31.1

Boxscores for Every NFL Divisional Game

MatchupHome Win%Avg Score
Arizona @ Carolina75.321-31Boxscore
San Diego @ Pittsburgh64.917-23Boxscore
Baltimore @ Tennessee52.816-19Boxscore
Philadelphia @ New York40.620-19Boxscore

Paul Bessire is the Senior Quantitative Analyst and Content Manager for and a member of the Pro Football Writers of America. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at Thanks!

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