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College Football SimMatchup
WhatIfSports.com utilizes its college football simulation technology to present the most comprehensive, deterministic and unbiased ranking of all teams. We simulated every possible DI FBS match-up one hundred times, and used the winning percentages from 700,000+ games to evaluate every team. All 120 teams are ranked below with their average points for and against from the simulated games. Simulations are based on updated, strength-of-schedule-adjusted stats, so significant week-to-week changes could occur.
Most Notable Team:
Alabama might have jumped Florida in some polls, but in the BCS standings and our Power Rankings, the Gators remain top dog - yet it could hardly get any closer.
Florida continues to win 98.8% of the games it plays in 100 simulations against every other FBS team. In those games, the Gators, coming off a victory over Arkansas thanks to a last-minute field goal, are scoring more points than any other team - more than 50 per game - and are winning by an average margin of 42 points.
Alabama is right on the Gators' heels, winning 98.6% of its games against FBS opponents. The Tide, coming off a solid victory over South Carolina, are giving up fewer points than any other team. Their 5.5 points allowed per game is more than two points less than any other team and actually a wider margin of victory than the Gators.
Florida has held the top spot throughout the entire season. Alabama rose to #2 heading into Week 4. At that time, the Gators were winning 0.5% more games than the Tide. That was the closest the race had been until this week.
Whether or not Bama can pass up Florida in our rankings might come down to margin of victory this weekend. Florida travels to take on 3-4 Mississippi State while Alabama hosts 3-3 Tennessee.
One week after producing the biggest drop and falling all the way outside the top 100, the Colorado Buffaloes returns with a vengeance. Thanks to a big upset of Kansas, Colorado picks up all 31 spots it fell last week... and then some. The Buffaloes jump back up 45 spots to 56th and are again beating more than 50% of the their opponents.
Clemson, rebounding from two consecutive losses with a thrashing of Wake Forest, jumps 22 spots to 31st. Both Pitt and Georgia Tech cut their rises toward the top in half. The Panthers moves up 20 spots to 20th and the Yellow Jackets go up 19 to 19th. Houston, behind quarterback Case Keenum, rises 20 spots to 14th after thrashing Tulane.
The biggest losses belong to the Mountain West Conference. Colorado State had TCU on its heels for nearly an entire half, but 44 consecutive points later, the Rams drop 27 spots and out of our top 100. The Rams have lost four straight since starting 3-0, an early run that included a victory over the biggest jumper of the week, Colorado.
The Wyoming Cowboys fall drastically as well. One week after a 2-0 MWC start helped them jump 25 spots, they nearly gave it all back, falling 23 after a 10-0 loss at Air Force. Virginia Tech, upset by Georgia Tech, falls from sixth all the way to 27th. Both Kansas and Wake Forest drop 20 spots after surprising losses. And Texas A&M, with its third straight loss, drops 26 more spots and is now only winning 42.5% of its games.
Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage (everyone plays everyone 100 times)
|2.||Alabama Crimson Tide||-||98.6||48.2||5.5|
|4.||TCU Horned Frogs||+3||95.3||46.9||9.7|
|6.||Boise State Broncos||-2||93.3||46.2||11.5|
|10.||Oklahoma State Cowboys||+6||85.4||39.0||16.8|
|12.||Penn State Nittany Lions||+5||84.4||34.3||13.9|
|13.||West Virginia Mountaineers||+6||83.8||36.7||13.9|
|16.||Brigham Young Cougars||-1||80.0||37.7||19.0|
|18.||Miami (FL) Hurricanes||+3||77.6||33.4||16.3|
|19.||Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets||+19||77.1||39.1||20.1|
|21.||Ohio State Buckeyes||-11||76.1||27.4||12.8|
|22.||South Florida Bulls||-11||75.6||34.1||19.1|
|23.||Notre Dame Fighting Irish||+1||75.0||35.8||20.6|
|24.||Texas Tech Red Raiders||+15||74.2||28.8||16.1|
|27.||Virginia Tech Hokies||-21||73.0||31.9||16.9|
|30.||South Carolina Gamecocks||+1||70.3||25.1||15.0|
|32.||California Golden Bears||+5||70.1||30.8||19.3|
|34.||Oregon State Beavers||+12||68.6||28.2||18.4|
|35.||Central Michigan Chippewas||-2||68.1||30.9||19.7|
|36.||Air Force Falcons||+6||67.4||24.9||15.8|
|39.||Michigan State Spartans||-3||66.1||28.3||18.4|
|40.||Fresno State Bulldogs||-11||65.7||33.0||23.0|
|46.||Nevada Wolf Pack||+4||62.4||30.6||23.3|
|47.||Kansas State Wildcats||+20||61.6||26.9||19.8|
|49.||Rutgers Scarlet Knights||-4||60.0||24.7||19.7|
|50.||Florida State Seminoles||+2||59.7||28.8||24.3|
|53.||Arizona State Sun Devils||+18||56.4||19.3||17.0|
|54.||Boston College Eagles||+8||56.2||22.3||18.2|
|59.||Tulsa Golden Hurricane||-10||50.6||22.4||22.6|
|60.||Northern Illinois Huskies||-5||49.3||23.8||23.6|
|61.||Wake Forest Demon Deacons||-20||49.2||22.1||21.7|
|64.||Southern Miss Golden Eagles||-||47.7||21.1||22.0|
|67.||Utah State Aggies||-2||45.0||22.4||26.4|
|68.||North Carolina Tar Heels||-5||44.4||13.4||16.7|
|70.||Iowa State Cyclones||+14||42.9||21.3||25.2|
|71.||Arkansas State Red Wolves||-15||42.7||19.4||23.2|
|72.||North Carolina State Wolfpack||-18||42.6||19.3||22.5|
|73.||Texas A&M Aggies||-26||42.5||20.1||25.1|
|75.||Mississippi State Bulldogs||+5||39.7||19.4||24.5|
|78.||Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns||-5||38.2||18.5||25.2|
|81.||Minnesota Golden Gophers||-15||36.3||16.1||24.4|
|85.||Louisiana Tech Bulldogs||+8||33.5||17.1||26.3|
|86.||East Carolina Pirates||+9||33.2||15.6||23.9|
|87.||Western Michigan Broncos||-2||33.2||16.5||27.0|
|91.||Marshall Thundering Herd||-9||26.8||14.6||28.2|
|92.||North Texas Mean Green||+5||26.1||15.3||30.3|
|93.||Duke Blue Devils||-1||25.7||14.5||28.4|
|94.||Illinois Fighting Illini||-5||25.0||15.6||32.1|
|95.||Southern Methodist Mustangs||+7||24.4||12.2||28.0|
|96.||Army Black Knights||-||23.9||11.2||27.7|
|100.||San Diego State Aztecs||+5||20.7||10.0||27.0|
|102.||Colorado State Rams||-27||20.0||12.5||29.9|
|103.||Florida Atlantic Owls||+5||20.0||15.5||35.6|
|104.||Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders||-17||19.8||10.5||27.6|
|105.||Kent State Golden Flashes||+1||19.7||10.4||29.0|
|106.||Tulane Green Wave||-8||16.7||12.7||31.4|
|108.||Bowling Green Falcons||+1||15.4||10.3||33.6|
|111.||Ball State Cardinals||+2||11.0||9.0||34.2|
|112.||New Mexico Lobos||+2||9.4||6.6||34.0|
|113.||Florida International Golden Panthers||-1||8.9||8.5||37.4|
|114.||Western Kentucky Hilltoppers||-3||8.5||9.1||40.3|
|115.||San Jose State Spartans||+3||7.6||8.1||40.1|
|117.||Miami (OH) RedHawks||-1||6.3||5.7||36.2|
|118.||New Mexico State Aggies||-1||6.0||6.3||37.9|
|119.||Washington State Cougars||+1||6.0||5.8||36.0|
|120.||Eastern Michigan Eagles||-1||5.0||6.1||40.8|
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Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!