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College Football SimMatchup
WhatIfSports.com utilizes its college football simulation technology to present the most comprehensive, deterministic and unbiased ranking of all teams. We simulated every possible DI FBS match-up one hundred times, and used the winning percentages from 700,000+ games to evaluate every team. All 120 teams are ranked below with their average points for and against from the simulated games. Simulations are based on updated, strength-of-schedule-adjusted stats, so significant week-to-week changes could occur.
Most Notable Storyline:
Week Nine's two biggest games both turned into routs this past weekend. How did that affect the way the teams involved look in the latest power rankings?
They certainly move up, but perhaps none of them as far as you might have expected.
There may not have been a more stunning game this season than when Oregon thoroughly punished USC on Saturday, 47-20.
The Ducks, now arguably the hottest team in the land, move up three spots to #5 and are now beating all FBS opponents more than 94% of the time in 100 simulations against each team. Most notably, Oregon jumps Boise State, the only team that has beaten the Ducks this season. The USC Trojans drop, but just seven spots to #11, where they are beating their opponents 87.1% of the time.
And while the winner was perhaps less surprising, the score in Texas and Oklahoma State's showdown was certainly underwhelming considering the circumstances.
As a result of Texas' 41-14 thrashing, the Longhorns move up three spots and are now the second-ranked team in the country. Texas is easily the highest-scoring team in the simulations, scoring more than 51 points per game and are only 0.2 percentage points behind top-ranked Florida in terms of team winning percentage against all FBS teams. The Cowboys tumble, but only dip 11 spots and are still in the top 25. With a 76.8% winning percentage, they fall to #21.
With a loss to Houston under its belt, a Conference USA championship might not be in the cards for SMU, but coach June Jones certainly has the Mustangs - still trying to recover from the NCAA's "Death Penalty" sentence more than 20 years ago - on the right track. A two-touchdown victory at Tulsa this weekend moves SMU to 3-1 in league play and 4-4 overall and the Mustangs jump 26 spots this week, the most of any team. SMU now ranks 76th in the country, beating FBS opponents nearly 38% of the time.
Minnesota is a close second to SMU, gaining 23 spots and moving up to #69 with a victory over Michigan State. South Florida, which seemed to go into freefall when its undefeated start was followed by two consecutive losses, salvaged ground with a victory over West Virginia on Friday, regaining 19 spots from its previous drop and moving back into the top 25. North Carolina, which made a statement on Thursday by taking down Virginia Tech, jumps 13 spots to 59th.
Central Michigan, with just one loss, had flown under the radar this season but had a chance to make a stand against a BCS foe in Boston College. Instead, a 31-10 loss will likely relegate the Chippewas back to also-ran status for the remainder of this season. Central Michigan also has the dubious honor this week of the biggest drop in the rankings, falling 24 spots as a result of that loss to 58th in the country.
Tulsa's home loss to SMU costs it 17 spots in the rankings, while Purdue - which looked like a completely different team against Wisconsin Saturday than it did in a victory over Ohio State - loses 15 spots to 64th. Other notable BCS teams taking falls included Ole Miss, which drops 14 spots, and West Virginia which falls 13.
Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage (everyone plays everyone 100 times)
|3.||TCU Horned Frogs||-||95.6||46.4||10.0|
|4.||Alabama Crimson Tide||-2||95.1||43.0||8.0|
|7.||Boise State Broncos||-||92.7||42.4||11.7|
|10.||Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets||+4||89.4||47.6||20.0|
|12.||Penn State Nittany Lions||-||86.1||34.7||13.1|
|18.||Ohio State Buckeyes||-||79.4||31.8||13.7|
|20.||Notre Dame Fighting Irish||+2||77.4||38.4||21.5|
|21.||Oklahoma State Cowboys||-11||76.8||33.2||18.4|
|22.||California Golden Bears||+5||76.7||35.3||19.6|
|23.||Virginia Tech Hokies||-||75.4||33.4||19.7|
|24.||South Florida Bulls||+19||75.0||33.2||19.8|
|25.||Nevada Wolf Pack||-1||73.4||35.4||22.0|
|26.||Brigham Young Cougars||+2||71.4||33.0||21.7|
|28.||West Virginia Mountaineers||-13||70.8||31.2||18.3|
|29.||Miami (FL) Hurricanes||+4||69.6||29.4||19.3|
|32.||Fresno State Bulldogs||-6||68.3||35.0||23.5|
|33.||Oregon State Beavers||-1||68.2||28.8||20.3|
|34.||Rutgers Scarlet Knights||+11||66.6||27.9||18.4|
|35.||Texas Tech Red Raiders||+6||66.6||26.3||18.7|
|43.||South Carolina Gamecocks||-5||61.2||24.0||18.0|
|44.||Florida State Seminoles||+2||61.0||31.1||25.4|
|46.||Boston College Eagles||+11||60.0||22.7||18.6|
|47.||Southern Miss Golden Eagles||+9||59.5||26.1||21.3|
|48.||Texas A&M Aggies||+3||59.3||27.1||21.9|
|49.||Michigan State Spartans||-13||59.2||25.7||20.3|
|50.||Kansas State Wildcats||-10||58.6||24.1||20.1|
|51.||Air Force Falcons||-20||58.2||22.6||19.0|
|54.||Arizona State Sun Devils||+6||55.3||20.0||18.8|
|55.||Wake Forest Demon Deacons||+10||54.2||23.6||21.7|
|57.||Utah State Aggies||-2||51.5||25.3||24.8|
|58.||Central Michigan Chippewas||-24||51.4||23.3||22.2|
|59.||North Carolina Tar Heels||+13||51.0||17.5||17.6|
|61.||Mississippi State Bulldogs||+9||46.1||22.1||24.0|
|63.||Northern Illinois Huskies||+1||45.2||21.1||24.1|
|65.||East Carolina Pirates||+14||44.1||19.0||22.4|
|66.||Iowa State Cyclones||-5||44.1||21.5||25.6|
|69.||Minnesota Golden Gophers||+23||41.3||20.3||25.0|
|72.||Arkansas State Red Wolves||-1||39.6||18.2||24.4|
|73.||North Carolina State Wolfpack||+5||38.8||18.3||24.5|
|76.||Southern Methodist Mustangs||+26||37.9||16.8||24.8|
|77.||Louisiana Tech Bulldogs||+11||37.8||18.9||26.4|
|78.||Illinois Fighting Illini||+17||37.1||19.9||28.4|
|79.||Duke Blue Devils||+1||36.4||16.8||25.1|
|86.||Tulsa Golden Hurricane||-17||32.2||20.8||30.5|
|90.||Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders||+11||30.0||15.8||27.7|
|92.||Marshall Thundering Herd||-2||29.6||16.1||27.6|
|94.||Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns||-5||28.5||15.3||28.8|
|95.||Kent State Golden Flashes||+2||28.3||12.1||25.3|
|96.||San Diego State Aztecs||+3||28.2||12.6||23.9|
|98.||Western Michigan Broncos||-16||28.0||15.1||29.3|
|100.||Colorado State Rams||+6||26.3||14.8||27.4|
|101.||Florida Atlantic Owls||-17||26.1||19.0||32.4|
|102.||North Texas Mean Green||-11||25.8||17.5||32.6|
|105.||Army Black Knights||-||22.2||11.2||27.7|
|106.||Ball State Cardinals||+4||21.8||13.2||31.6|
|108.||Tulane Green Wave||+3||15.0||10.8||33.8|
|109.||Bowling Green Falcons||-2||13.2||10.5||33.8|
|112.||Western Kentucky Hilltoppers||-||9.7||10.2||40.1|
|113.||Florida International Golden Panthers||+3||8.2||8.1||36.7|
|114.||New Mexico Lobos||-1||7.9||6.7||33.8|
|115.||Miami (OH) RedHawks||-1||7.9||7.1||35.5|
|116.||Washington State Cougars||-1||6.0||7.6||38.2|
|118.||New Mexico State Aggies||-||5.8||6.8||38.1|
|119.||Eastern Michigan Eagles||+1||5.2||6.9||41.2|
|120.||San Jose State Spartans||-3||5.0||7.4||39.0|
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Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!