2009 College Football Projections: Week 10 From WhatIfSports.com image

2009 College Football Projections

Week 10 NCAA Football Predictions
By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com
August 26th, 2009

WhatIfSports.com will preview a week of the college football season each day for 15 days, including projected scores from 10,000 simulations for all FBS games and updated standings as of that week. Once we have reached the end of the season, we will present our projected bowl match-ups with results.

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of August 1, 2009. A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

Also, see below for details on how you can run your own college football program with Gridiron Dynasty.

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Each regular season FBS game is simulated 10,000 times. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored. The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game. The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1% win is different than a 99% win). Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account. We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we don't expect any to do so.

Also, since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage. We are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2008. Once this step is complete, we make our modifications for 2009 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by the conference of the home team and then winning percentage of the home team, with the score reading the visitors first followed by the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95% chance of winning, that means that it won at 95% or more of the 10,000 simulations. Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. James Madison vs. Maryland), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Today we preview Week 10 (11/7/09).

Game of the Week: #9 Ohio State 19 @ #13 Penn State 18
The defacto Big Ten Championship game will take place on November 17 in Beaver Stadium when Ohio State travels to Penn State for a rematch of a game that the Nittany Lions won 13-6 in Columbus last year. With teams that look equally talented at just about every other position, this game should come down to the quarterbacks and secondary. Penn State lost every player from its 2008 defensive backfield, whereas Ohio State brings back everyone but Malcolm Jenkins. Watch for sophomore OSU quarterback Terrelle Pryor to return to his native Pennsylvania and outperform his Penn State counterpart Daryll Clark by making one or two big plays in the passing game. The Buckeyes find revenge and win 56.5% of the time and by an average score of 19-18. A Rose Bowl appearance likely awaits the Buckeyes... as does a rematch with USC.


MatchupHome Win%Avg Score
Wake Forest @ Georgia Tech95.07-31
Virginia @ Miami (FL)93.08-25
Duke @ North Carolina92.77-26
Maryland @ North Carolina State54.819-22
Florida State @ Clemson38.217-15
UCF @ Texas95.04-59
Texas A&M @ Colorado69.816-24
Baylor @ Missouri45.829-30
Kansas @ Kansas State5.034-12
Oklahoma @ Nebraska5.043-18
Oklahoma State @ Iowa State5.058-17
Louisville @ West Virginia95.09-39
Syracuse @ Pittsburgh95.08-31
Connecticut @ Cincinnati67.415-23
Northwestern @ Iowa95.08-26
Purdue @ Michigan81.77-19
Western Michigan @ Michigan State77.113-24
Ohio State @ Penn State43.519-18
Illinois @ Minnesota16.928-19
Wisconsin @ Indiana5.634-12
Florida Atlantic @ UAB64.122-29
Houston @ Tulsa25.938-31
Rice @ Southern Methodist21.928-19
UTEP @ Tulane19.330-20
Virginia Tech @ East Carolina14.624-11
Navy @ Notre Dame78.414-27
Troy @ Western Kentucky5.034-7
Miami (OH) @ Temple92.09-23
Eastern Michigan @ Northern Illinois72.813-24
Kent State @ Akron52.822-25
Bowling Green @ Buffalo38.219-16
Army @ Air Force95.07-33
New Mexico @ Utah95.07-34
Colorado State @ UNLV54.822-25
Brigham Young @ Wyoming5.034-11
TCU @ San Diego State5.035-8
Washington State @ Arizona95.06-41
Oregon State @ California87.713-30
Washington @ UCLA70.112-21
Oregon @ Stanford20.931-20
USC @ Arizona State5.046-7
Memphis @ Tennessee95.09-33
Northern Arizona @ Mississippi95.06-57
Tennessee Tech @ Georgia95.06-49
Vanderbilt @ Florida95.05-55
Eastern Kentucky @ Kentucky88.49-20
Furman @ Auburn88.47-24
South Carolina @ Arkansas80.112-26
LSU @ Alabama62.516-22
Louisiana-Lafayette @ Arkansas State80.414-29
Florida International @ Middle Tennessee44.517-16
Louisiana-Monroe @ North Texas43.219-18
Utah State @ Hawaii45.223-22
Boise State @ Louisiana Tech13.029-18
Nevada @ San Jose State6.632-13
Fresno State @ Idaho5.330-9

Week 10 Standings

ConferenceTeamAbs RecordExp Record
Atlantic CoastGeorgia Tech8 - 28 - 2
Atlantic CoastVirginia Tech8 - 17 - 2
Atlantic CoastFlorida State9 - 06 - 3
Atlantic CoastNorth Carolina State7 - 26 - 3
Atlantic CoastNorth Carolina6 - 36 - 3
Atlantic CoastClemson5 - 46 - 3
Atlantic CoastMaryland5 - 45 - 4
Atlantic CoastMiami (FL)5 - 45 - 4
Atlantic CoastDuke4 - 54 - 5
Atlantic CoastWake Forest2 - 84 - 6
Atlantic CoastBoston College2 - 73 - 6
Atlantic CoastVirginia2 - 72 - 7
Big 12Texas9 - 08 - 1
Big 12Oklahoma State8 - 18 - 1
Big 12Oklahoma8 - 18 - 1
Big 12Kansas7 - 27 - 2
Big 12Baylor7 - 26 - 3
Big 12Texas Tech7 - 26 - 3
Big 12Missouri4 - 55 - 4
Big 12Nebraska4 - 55 - 4
Big 12Kansas State4 - 64 - 6
Big 12Colorado4 - 53 - 6
Big 12Texas A&M1 - 83 - 6
Big 12Iowa State2 - 83 - 7
Big EastWest Virginia9 - 08 - 1
Big EastPittsburgh8 - 17 - 2
Big EastRutgers8 - 06 - 2
Big EastCincinnati6 - 36 - 3
Big EastSouth Florida5 - 35 - 3
Big EastConnecticut3 - 64 - 5
Big EastLouisville2 - 73 - 6
Big EastSyracuse1 - 82 - 7
Big TenIowa9 - 19 - 1
Big TenOhio State9 - 18 - 2
Big TenPenn State9 - 18 - 2
Big TenIllinois7 - 27 - 2
Big TenWisconsin7 - 26 - 3
Big TenMichigan State6 - 46 - 4
Big TenNorthwestern6 - 46 - 4
Big TenMichigan4 - 64 - 6
Big TenMinnesota3 - 74 - 6
Big TenPurdue2 - 82 - 8
Big TenIndiana1 - 92 - 8
Conference USAHouston8 - 17 - 2
Conference USASouthern Miss7 - 27 - 2
Conference USAEast Carolina6 - 36 - 3
Conference USATulsa6 - 36 - 3
Conference USAMarshall5 - 44 - 5
Conference USAUTEP5 - 44 - 5
Conference USAUAB3 - 64 - 5
Conference USARice3 - 63 - 6
Conference USAMemphis2 - 73 - 6
Conference USASouthern Methodist2 - 72 - 7
Conference USATulane1 - 82 - 7
Conference USAUCF1 - 82 - 7
Independents (FBS)Notre Dame8 - 17 - 2
Independents (FBS)Navy6 - 46 - 4
Independents (FBS)Army2 - 73 - 6
Independents (FBS)Western Kentucky0 - 91 - 8
Mid-AmericanWestern Michigan9 - 17 - 3
Mid-AmericanBall State7 - 26 - 3
Mid-AmericanCentral Michigan6 - 36 - 3
Mid-AmericanNorthern Illinois5 - 45 - 4
Mid-AmericanOhio6 - 35 - 4
Mid-AmericanTemple4 - 55 - 4
Mid-AmericanKent State4 - 65 - 5
Mid-AmericanAkron5 - 44 - 5
Mid-AmericanBowling Green5 - 44 - 5
Mid-AmericanToledo3 - 64 - 5
Mid-AmericanBuffalo3 - 63 - 6
Mid-AmericanEastern Michigan0 - 92 - 7
Mid-AmericanMiami (OH)0 - 101 - 9
Mountain WestTCU9 - 08 - 1
Mountain WestUtah8 - 18 - 1
Mountain WestBrigham Young6 - 37 - 2
Mountain WestAir Force8 - 27 - 3
Mountain WestColorado State4 - 64 - 6
Mountain WestUNLV5 - 54 - 6
Mountain WestNew Mexico3 - 63 - 6
Mountain WestSan Diego State3 - 63 - 6
Mountain WestWyoming2 - 73 - 6
Pacific-10USC9 - 08 - 1
Pacific-10California8 - 17 - 2
Pacific-10Arizona6 - 26 - 2
Pacific-10Oregon State7 - 26 - 3
Pacific-10Oregon7 - 26 - 3
Pacific-10Stanford6 - 36 - 3
Pacific-10Arizona State4 - 55 - 4
Pacific-10UCLA3 - 63 - 6
Pacific-10Washington1 - 82 - 7
Pacific-10Washington State0 - 91 - 8
SoutheasternFlorida9 - 09 - 0
SoutheasternAlabama9 - 08 - 1
SoutheasternMississippi8 - 18 - 1
SoutheasternLSU7 - 27 - 2
SoutheasternGeorgia6 - 36 - 3
SoutheasternTennessee6 - 36 - 3
SoutheasternArkansas5 - 45 - 4
SoutheasternKentucky3 - 64 - 5
SoutheasternVanderbilt5 - 54 - 6
SoutheasternMississippi State2 - 73 - 6
SoutheasternAuburn3 - 73 - 7
SoutheasternSouth Carolina3 - 73 - 7
Sun BeltTroy7 - 26 - 3
Sun BeltArkansas State6 - 25 - 3
Sun BeltMiddle Tennessee6 - 45 - 5
Sun BeltFlorida Atlantic3 - 54 - 4
Sun BeltFlorida International5 - 44 - 5
Sun BeltLouisiana-Lafayette5 - 44 - 5
Sun BeltLouisiana-Monroe2 - 72 - 7
Sun BeltNorth Texas1 - 92 - 8
Western AthleticBoise State8 - 18 - 1
Western AthleticNevada8 - 17 - 2
Western AthleticLouisiana Tech6 - 36 - 3
Western AthleticFresno State6 - 35 - 4
Western AthleticHawaii3 - 64 - 5
Western AthleticUtah State4 - 53 - 6
Western AthleticNew Mexico State2 - 73 - 6
Western AthleticSan Jose State2 - 62 - 6
Western AthleticIdaho0 - 101 - 9

A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

Ever wanted to be in be in charge of your own college football program? With Gridiron Dynasty from WhatIfSports.com, you have a chance to do just that. From recruiting and running practice to gameplanning and scheduling - it is all under your control. Start at DIII and try to work your way up to winning the DI championship at your favorite school.

Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!

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