Week 12 predictions for every D-I/FBS college football game
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Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.
Check out our 2011 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week available on Wednesdays.
The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.
Game of the Week: Nebraska at Michigan
Say all you want about the Michigan Wolverines. After Saturday's win over Illinois, one thing is for sure: this team doesn't need Denard Robinson to singlehandedly win games for them anymore. In fact, the versatile quarterback missed most of the second half with a bruised wrist. When running back Fitzgerald Toussaint is averaging 7.1 yards per carry against the Illini defense, all Brady Hoke needs to do is sit back and watch.
You know why?
As Michigan defensive coordinator Greg Mattison put it, "that was without a doubt, a Michigan defense," when speaking of the team's effort against Illinois. The former defensive coordinator of the Baltimore Ravens has taken a unit that ranked 108th in total defense (447.9 yards allowed per game) and 102nd in scoring defense (33.8 points allowed per game) in 2010 and turned it into one of the nation's best in less than 10 months. The Wolverines are 16th in total defense at 317.9 yards allowed per game and fifth in scoring defense (15.5 points allowed per game) 10 games into the season.
A sound offense blended with an overachieving defense has catapulted Michigan back into the national conversation.
That rush defense will be tested by Nebraska's 13th-ranked rushing offense. Taylor Martinez and Rex Burkhead combined for 177 rushing yards on 46 carries with a touchdown against Penn State last weekend. The duo has racked up over 1,800 rushing yards and 23 touchdowns in 10 games this season.
Using our college football simulation engine, we "played" Nebraska at Michigan 101 times and it has the Cornhuskers winning 61.4 percent of the time by an average score of 27-24.
USC at Oregon
Since they lost in their Week 1 opener against LSU, the Oregon Ducks have rattled off nine straight wins. They have outscored opponents 48.8-19.6 during that stretch. With their convincing win over Stanford last Saturday, the Ducks have re-entered the BCS National Championship picture.
All that stands in their way are the USC Trojans. With their 40-17 win over Washington, Lane Kiffin's crew has won five out of their last six games; the only loss coming to Stanford in triple-overtime back on October 29. As it stands now, the Trojans at 5-2 in the Pac-12 South sit a game up on Arizona State and UCLA for the right to play in the inaugural Pac-12 Championship game on December 2.
Now if our simulation picks are accurate, the Bruins and Sun Devils are predicted to win (see predictions below) and after 101 simulations USC is predicted to lose to Oregon 67.3 percent of the time by an average score of 34-28. So, heading into Week 13, we could have a three-way tie for first in the Pac-12 South.
Please note: The Washington/Oregon State, LSU/Mississippi and Boise State/San Diego State games were resimulated on 11/17 to account for injuries and roster updates.
College Football Week 12
|@ Florida State Seminoles||79.2||32|
|North Carolina Tar Heels||30.7||22||Boxscore|
|@ Virginia Tech Hokies||69.3||27|
|@ Wake Forest Demon Deacons||56.4||26|
|@ North Carolina State Wolfpack||21.8||19|
|Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets||78.2||30||Boxscore|
|@ Duke Blue Devils||21.8||19|
|@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights||55.4||23|
|@ Connecticut Huskies||33.2||21|
|Miami (FL) Hurricanes||69.3||28||Boxscore|
|@ South Florida Bulls||30.7||21|
|@ Michigan State Spartans||95.0||40|
|Minnesota Golden Gophers||19.8||19||Boxscore|
|@ Northwestern Wildcats||80.2||30|
|Penn State Nittany Lions||51.5||21||Boxscore|
|@ Ohio State Buckeyes||48.5||20|
|@ Purdue Boilermakers||45.0||22|
|@ Michigan Wolverines||38.6||24|
|@ Illinois Fighting Illini||19.3||18|
|Ball State Cardinals||13.9||22||Boxscore|
|@ Northern Illinois Huskies||86.1||36|
|Army Black Knights||25.7||20||Boxscore|
|@ Temple Owls||74.3||27|
|@ Buffalo Bulls||70.8||24|
|Eastern Michigan Eagles||35.1||18||Boxscore|
|@ Kent State Golden Flashes||64.9||24|
|Western Michigan Broncos||56.4||30||Boxscore|
|@ Miami (OH) RedHawks||43.6||26|
|@ Bowling Green Falcons||30.2||22|
|@ Central Michigan Chippewas||28.7||24|
|California Golden Bears||14.9||20||Boxscore|
|@ Stanford Cardinal||85.1||35|
|@ Oregon Ducks||67.3||34|
|@ UCLA Bruins||64.4||31|
|@ Arizona State Sun Devils||61.4||29|
|@ Washington State Cougars||45.5||25|
|@ Oregon State Beavers||40.6||25|
|@ Florida Gators||95.0||54|
|Georgia Southern Eagles||5.0||5||Boxscore|
|@ Alabama Crimson Tide||95.0||61|
|@ Auburn Tigers||95.0||51|
|@ South Carolina Gamecocks||95.0||50|
|@ Georgia Bulldogs||92.1||32|
|Mississippi State Bulldogs||23.3||21||Boxscore|
|@ Arkansas Razorbacks||76.7||31|
|@ Tennessee Volunteers||65.3||25|
|@ Mississippi Rebels||5.0||12|
|Louisiana Tech Bulldogs||47.0||28||Boxscore|
|@ Nevada Wolf Pack||53.0||30|
|Utah State Aggies||56.4||26||Boxscore|
|@ Idaho Vandals||43.6||23|
|Fresno State Bulldogs||68.3||29||Boxscore|
|@ Hawaii Warriors||31.7||23|
|@ San Jose State Spartans||23.8||20|
|New Mexico State Aggies||9.9||18||Boxscore|
|@ Brigham Young Cougars||90.1||37|
|Boston College Eagles||35.6||21||Boxscore|
|@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish||64.4||26|
|@ Texas A&M Aggies||87.1||38|
|Texas Tech Red Raiders||36.1||27||Boxscore|
|@ Missouri Tigers||63.9||31|
|Kansas State Wildcats||52.5||25||Boxscore|
|@ Texas Longhorns||47.5||24|
|@ Baylor Bears||24.8||28|
|Oklahoma State Cowboys||95.0||42||Boxscore|
|@ Iowa State Cyclones||5.0||19|
|Southern Methodist Mustangs||6.9||28||Boxscore|
|@ Houston Cougars||93.1||41|
|Tulane Green Wave||35.6||24||Boxscore|
|@ Rice Owls||64.4||29|
|@ East Carolina Pirates||30.7||25|
|Southern Miss Golden Eagles||84.2||39||Boxscore|
|@ UAB Blazers||15.8||23|
|Marshall Thundering Herd||86.1||28||Boxscore|
|@ Memphis Tigers||13.9||14|
|Tulsa Golden Hurricane||88.1||37||Boxscore|
|@ UTEP Miners||11.9||22|
|Colorado State Rams||5.0||16||Boxscore|
|@ TCU Horned Frogs||95.0||40|
|@ Air Force Falcons||89.1||31|
|New Mexico Lobos||16.8||16||Boxscore|
|@ Wyoming Cowboys||83.2||29|
|Boise State Broncos||88.1||41||Boxscore|
|@ San Diego State Aztecs||11.9||23|
|Florida Atlantic Owls||19.3||18||Boxscore|
|@ Troy Trojans||80.7||30|
|Western Kentucky Hilltoppers||48.5||26||Boxscore|
|@ North Texas Mean Green||51.5||28|
|FIU Golden Panthers||50.5||25||Boxscore|
|@ Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks||49.5||24|
|Arkansas State Red Wolves||61.4||28||Boxscore|
|@ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders||38.6||24|
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