College Football Week 12 Picks and Predictions from WhatIfSports.com From WhatIfSports.com image

College Football Week 12 Picks and Predictions

Week 12 predictions for every D-I/FBS college football game

By Ryan Fowler and Jake Westrich - WhatIfSports.com
UPDATE: November 14, 2011

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

Check out our 2011 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week available on Wednesdays.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

<a href='http://msn.foxsports.com/video/college-football?videoId=12xxcuj6&from=null&src=v5:embed::uuids' target='_new' title='WhatIfSports: Week 12 CFB picks'>Video: WhatIfSports: Week 12 CFB picks</a>

Game of the Week: Nebraska at Michigan

Say all you want about the Michigan Wolverines. After Saturday's win over Illinois, one thing is for sure: this team doesn't need Denard Robinson to singlehandedly win games for them anymore. In fact, the versatile quarterback missed most of the second half with a bruised wrist. When running back Fitzgerald Toussaint is averaging 7.1 yards per carry against the Illini defense, all Brady Hoke needs to do is sit back and watch.

You know why?

As Michigan defensive coordinator Greg Mattison put it, "that was without a doubt, a Michigan defense," when speaking of the team's effort against Illinois. The former defensive coordinator of the Baltimore Ravens has taken a unit that ranked 108th in total defense (447.9 yards allowed per game) and 102nd in scoring defense (33.8 points allowed per game) in 2010 and turned it into one of the nation's best in less than 10 months. The Wolverines are 16th in total defense at 317.9 yards allowed per game and fifth in scoring defense (15.5 points allowed per game) 10 games into the season.

A sound offense blended with an overachieving defense has catapulted Michigan back into the national conversation.

That rush defense will be tested by Nebraska's 13th-ranked rushing offense. Taylor Martinez and Rex Burkhead combined for 177 rushing yards on 46 carries with a touchdown against Penn State last weekend. The duo has racked up over 1,800 rushing yards and 23 touchdowns in 10 games this season.

Using our college football simulation engine, we "played" Nebraska at Michigan 101 times and it has the Cornhuskers winning 61.4 percent of the time by an average score of 27-24.

USC at Oregon

Since they lost in their Week 1 opener against LSU, the Oregon Ducks have rattled off nine straight wins. They have outscored opponents 48.8-19.6 during that stretch. With their convincing win over Stanford last Saturday, the Ducks have re-entered the BCS National Championship picture.

All that stands in their way are the USC Trojans. With their 40-17 win over Washington, Lane Kiffin's crew has won five out of their last six games; the only loss coming to Stanford in triple-overtime back on October 29. As it stands now, the Trojans at 5-2 in the Pac-12 South sit a game up on Arizona State and UCLA for the right to play in the inaugural Pac-12 Championship game on December 2.

Now if our simulation picks are accurate, the Bruins and Sun Devils are predicted to win (see predictions below) and after 101 simulations USC is predicted to lose to Oregon 67.3 percent of the time by an average score of 34-28. So, heading into Week 13, we could have a three-way tie for first in the Pac-12 South.

Please note: The Washington/Oregon State, LSU/Mississippi and Boise State/San Diego State games were resimulated on 11/17 to account for injuries and roster updates.

College Football Week 12
MatchupWin%Avg Score 
Virginia Cavaliers20.822Boxscore
@ Florida State Seminoles79.232 
North Carolina Tar Heels30.722Boxscore
@ Virginia Tech Hokies69.327 
Maryland Terrapins43.624Boxscore
@ Wake Forest Demon Deacons56.426 
Clemson Tigers78.229Boxscore
@ North Carolina State Wolfpack21.819 
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets78.230Boxscore
@ Duke Blue Devils21.819 
Cincinnati Bearcats44.622Boxscore
@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights55.423 
Louisville Cardinals66.826Boxscore
@ Connecticut Huskies33.221 
Miami (FL) Hurricanes69.328Boxscore
@ South Florida Bulls30.721 
Indiana Hoosiers 5.018Boxscore
@ Michigan State Spartans95.040 
Minnesota Golden Gophers19.819Boxscore
@ Northwestern Wildcats80.230 
Penn State Nittany Lions51.521Boxscore
@ Ohio State Buckeyes48.520 
Iowa Hawkeyes55.025Boxscore
@ Purdue Boilermakers45.022 
Nebraska Cornhuskers61.427Boxscore
@ Michigan Wolverines38.624 
Wisconsin Badgers80.733Boxscore
@ Illinois Fighting Illini19.318 
Ball State Cardinals13.922Boxscore
@ Northern Illinois Huskies86.136 
Army Black Knights25.720Boxscore
@ Temple Owls74.327 
Akron Zips29.217Boxscore
@ Buffalo Bulls70.824 
Eastern Michigan Eagles35.118Boxscore
@ Kent State Golden Flashes64.924 
Western Michigan Broncos56.430Boxscore
@ Miami (OH) RedHawks43.626 
Ohio Bobcats69.828Boxscore
@ Bowling Green Falcons30.222 
Toledo Rockets71.333Boxscore
@ Central Michigan Chippewas28.724 
California Golden Bears14.920Boxscore
@ Stanford Cardinal85.135 
USC Trojans32.728Boxscore
@ Oregon Ducks67.334 
Colorado Buffaloes35.624Boxscore
@ UCLA Bruins64.431 
Arizona Wildcats38.623Boxscore
@ Arizona State Sun Devils61.429 
Utah Utes54.526Boxscore
@ Washington State Cougars45.525 
Washington Huskies59.428Boxscore
@ Oregon State Beavers40.625 
Furman Paladins 5.06Boxscore
@ Florida Gators95.054 
Georgia Southern Eagles 5.05Boxscore
@ Alabama Crimson Tide95.061 
Samford Bulldogs 5.07Boxscore
@ Auburn Tigers95.051 
Citadel Bulldogs 5.07Boxscore
@ South Carolina Gamecocks95.050 
Kentucky Wildcats 7.914Boxscore
@ Georgia Bulldogs92.132 
Mississippi State Bulldogs23.321Boxscore
@ Arkansas Razorbacks76.731 
Vanderbilt Commodores34.720Boxscore
@ Tennessee Volunteers65.325 
LSU Tigers95.038Boxscore
@ Mississippi Rebels 5.012 
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs47.028Boxscore
@ Nevada Wolf Pack53.030 
Utah State Aggies56.426Boxscore
@ Idaho Vandals43.623 
Fresno State Bulldogs68.329Boxscore
@ Hawaii Warriors31.723 
Navy Midshipmen76.230Boxscore
@ San Jose State Spartans23.820 
New Mexico State Aggies 9.918Boxscore
@ Brigham Young Cougars90.137 
Boston College Eagles35.621Boxscore
@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish64.426 
Kansas Jayhawks12.921Boxscore
@ Texas A&M Aggies87.138 
Texas Tech Red Raiders36.127Boxscore
@ Missouri Tigers63.931 
Kansas State Wildcats52.525Boxscore
@ Texas Longhorns47.524 
Oklahoma Sooners75.237Boxscore
@ Baylor Bears24.828 
Oklahoma State Cowboys95.042Boxscore
@ Iowa State Cyclones 5.019 
Southern Methodist Mustangs 6.928Boxscore
@ Houston Cougars93.141 
Tulane Green Wave35.624Boxscore
@ Rice Owls64.429 
UCF Knights69.330Boxscore
@ East Carolina Pirates30.725 
Southern Miss Golden Eagles84.239Boxscore
@ UAB Blazers15.823 
Marshall Thundering Herd86.128Boxscore
@ Memphis Tigers13.914 
Tulsa Golden Hurricane88.137Boxscore
@ UTEP Miners11.922 
Colorado State Rams 5.016Boxscore
@ TCU Horned Frogs95.040 
UNLV Rebels10.915Boxscore
@ Air Force Falcons89.131 
New Mexico Lobos16.816Boxscore
@ Wyoming Cowboys83.229 
Boise State Broncos88.141Boxscore
@ San Diego State Aztecs11.923 
Florida Atlantic Owls19.318Boxscore
@ Troy Trojans80.730 
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers48.526Boxscore
@ North Texas Mean Green51.528 
FIU Golden Panthers50.525Boxscore
@ Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks49.524 
Arkansas State Red Wolves61.428Boxscore
@ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders38.624 
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Ryan Fowler is the Content Manager for WhatIfSports.com. He can be reached at rfowler@whatifsports.com.

Jake Westrich is the Digital Content Coordinator for WhatIfSports.com. He can be reached at jwestrich@whatifsports.com.

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