College Football Week 4 Picks and Predictions from WhatIfSports.com From WhatIfSports.com image

College Football Week 4 Picks and Predictions

Week 4 predictions for every D-I/FBS college football game

By Ryan Fowler and Jake Westrich - WhatIfSports.com
September 19, 2011

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

Check out our 2011 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week available on Wednesdays.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

<a href="http://msn.foxsports.com/video?vid=3ed44767-fd7b-4a0d-991f-e7fa996658fa" target="_new" title="">WhatIfSports: Week 4 CFB picks</a>

Game of the Week: Oklahoma State at Texas A&M

You might as well enjoy these Big 12 matchups while you can. Is it just me or does the Pac-12 add three more teams each weekend?

Oklahoma State at Texas A&M pits two of the top 20 scoring teams in the nation against each other.

Led by quarterback Brandon Weeden (384.7 pass yards per game / eight TDs / six INTs) and Justin Blackmon (109.7 receiving yards per game / three TDs), the Cowboys are averaging 52.3 points per game (third in nation). Their defense is a little suspect, allowing 27.0 ppg. Tulsa managed 33 points against OSU this past weekend.

Texas A&M head coach Mike Sherman may be six years removed from the "Lambeau leap" and traded the frozen tundra for the heat and humidity of College Station, but his offense-first mentality remains. The Aggies are averaging 41.5 points per game (17th in nation).

The Aggies lost on a last-second field goal to the Cowboys in the 2010 meeting. Former quarterback, Jerrod Johnson threw four interceptions in that game. This season it's Ryan Tannehill behind center. The former wide receiver replaced JJ at quarterback midway through last season and finished 2010 with 1638 yards and 13 touchdowns in eight games.

The WhatIfSports.com college football simulation engine "played" the Aggies and Cowboys 101 times and it's OSU winning 55.4 percent of the time by an average score of 38-35.

Arkansas at Alabama

The two SEC West foes meet a week after two differing outcomes in contests against members of the Sun Belt.

The Crimson Tide held the Mean Green of North Texas to 169 total yards in a 41-0 shutout.

The Razorbacks, on the other hand, had issues putting Troy to sleep in the second half. In fact, the Trojans outgained Arkansas 457-454. Bobby Petrino said in his post game press conference that he was frustrated with how the offense sputtered in the third and fourth quarters and allowed Troy to rally back.

Arkansas is adjusting to life without Ryan Mallett and with the growing pains that come with it. Junior quarterback Tyler Wilson was in coach Petrino's crosshairs for much of that second half and took the brunt of his rage. Wilson has thrown for 822 yards with five touchdowns and two picks in the first three games of the season.

Alabama will counter the Arkansas passing game with their backfield workhorse, Trent Richardson. The big guy is averaging 6.3 yards per rush with eight trips to the end zone in 'Bama's first three games.

Nick Saban's team ranks second in the nation in points allowed at 6.0. They allowed seven to Kent State, 11 to Penn State and as previously mentioned shutout North Texas.

The WhatIfSports.com college football simulation engine "played" Arkansas and Alabama 101 times and it's the Crimson Tide winning 70.4 percent of the time by an average score of 31-24.

College Football Week 4
MatchupWin%Avg Score
Massachusetts Minutemen 5.08Boxscore
@ Boston College Eagles95.046
Kansas State Wildcats31.722Boxscore
@ Miami (FL) Hurricanes68.328
Tulane Green Wave32.724Boxscore
@ Duke Blue Devils67.329
Temple Owls32.723Boxscore
@ Maryland Terrapins67.330
Southern Miss Golden Eagles59.430Boxscore
@ Virginia Cavaliers40.626
North Carolina Tar Heels64.426Boxscore
@ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets35.622
Florida State Seminoles70.330Boxscore
@ Clemson Tigers29.723
UTEP Miners 5.014Boxscore
@ South Florida Bulls95.037
Toledo Rockets41.626Boxscore
@ Syracuse Orange58.429
North Carolina State Wolfpack47.530Boxscore
@ Cincinnati Bearcats52.531
Notre Dame Fighting Irish49.527Boxscore
@ Pittsburgh Panthers50.528
LSU Tigers62.426Boxscore
@ West Virginia Mountaineers37.621
Ohio Bobcats64.426Boxscore
@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights35.621
Eastern Michigan Eagles 5.09Boxscore
@ Penn State Nittany Lions95.042
North Dakota State Bison 5.07Boxscore
@ Minnesota Golden Gophers95.039
South Dakota Coyotes 5.06Boxscore
@ Wisconsin Badgers95.066
Central Michigan Chippewas 7.919Boxscore
@ Michigan State Spartans92.135
Western Michigan Broncos25.223Boxscore
@ Illinois Fighting Illini74.830
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks27.221Boxscore
@ Iowa Hawkeyes72.829
Colorado Buffaloes32.221Boxscore
@ Ohio State Buckeyes67.828
San Diego State Aztecs42.630Boxscore
@ Michigan Wolverines57.432
South Alabama Jaguars 5.58Boxscore
@ Kent State Golden Flashes95.536
Cal Poly Mustangs 5.09Boxscore
@ Northern Illinois Huskies95.053
Virginia Military Keydets 6.98Boxscore
@ Akron Zips93.130
Bowling Green Falcons26.217Boxscore
@ Miami (OH) RedHawks73.825
Connecticut Huskies76.226Boxscore
@ Buffalo Bulls23.816
Army Black Knights81.226Boxscore
@ Ball State Cardinals18.813
California Golden Bears49.522Boxscore
@ Washington Huskies50.523
UCLA Bruins55.025Boxscore
@ Oregon State Beavers45.024
USC Trojans61.931Boxscore
@ Arizona State Sun Devils38.126
Oregon Ducks83.236Boxscore
@ Arizona Wildcats16.823
Florida Atlantic Owls 5.512Boxscore
@ Auburn Tigers95.537
Vanderbilt Commodores10.916Boxscore
@ South Carolina Gamecocks89.134
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs21.822Boxscore
@ Mississippi State Bulldogs78.235
Arkansas Razorbacks29.724Boxscore
@ Alabama Crimson Tide70.331
Florida Gators77.226Boxscore
@ Kentucky Wildcats22.816
Georgia Bulldogs91.138Boxscore
@ Mississippi Rebels 8.920
UC Davis Aggies 5.07Boxscore
@ Hawaii Warriors95.053
New Mexico State Aggies28.218Boxscore
@ San Jose State Spartans71.825
Colorado State Rams40.625Boxscore
@ Utah State Aggies59.430
Fresno State Bulldogs84.232Boxscore
@ Idaho Vandals15.820
UCF Knights49.528Boxscore
@ Brigham Young Cougars50.529
Rice Owls10.922Boxscore
@ Baylor Bears89.141
Missouri Tigers22.824Boxscore
@ Oklahoma Sooners77.233
Nevada Wolf Pack38.626Boxscore
@ Texas Tech Red Raiders61.429
Oklahoma State Cowboys55.438Boxscore
@ Texas A&M Aggies44.635
Georgia State Panthers 5.07Boxscore
@ Houston Cougars95.053
UAB Blazers15.823Boxscore
@ East Carolina Pirates84.235
Virginia Tech Hokies93.136Boxscore
@ Marshall Thundering Herd 6.914
Southern Methodist Mustangs95.045Boxscore
@ Memphis Tigers 5.011
Southern Utah Thunderbirds 5.08Boxscore
@ UNLV Rebels95.033
Tulsa Golden Hurricane 5.026Boxscore
@ Boise State Broncos95.046
Portland State Vikings 5.08Boxscore
@ TCU Horned Frogs95.063
Tennessee State Tigers 5.07Boxscore
@ Air Force Falcons95.049
Sam Houston State Bearkats 7.910Boxscore
@ New Mexico Lobos92.130
Nebraska Cornhuskers95.034Boxscore
@ Wyoming Cowboys 5.08
Central Arkansas Bears 5.07Boxscore
@ Arkansas State Red Wolves95.043
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns17.819Boxscore
@ FIU Golden Panthers82.231
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders39.626Boxscore
@ Troy Trojans60.430
Indiana Hoosiers70.331Boxscore
@ North Texas Mean Green29.725
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Ryan Fowler is the Content Manager for WhatIfSports.com. He can be reached at rfowler@whatifsports.com.

Jake Westrich is the Digital Content Coordinator for WhatIfSports.com. He can be reached at jwestrich@whatifsports.com.

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