Week 7 predictions for every D-I/FBS college football game
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Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.
Check out our 2011 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week available on Wednesdays.
The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.
Game of the Week: Michigan at Michigan State
They are maize, blue, and all be damned, bowl eligible six weeks into the season. The Michigan Wolverines outscored the Northwestern Wildcats 28-0 in the second half to improve to 6-0 on the season. Brady Hoke is the first to start his Wolverines' head coaching career 6-0 since Bennie Oosterbaan in 1948.
It wasn't that long ago when Michigan's defense was the laughing-stock of the FBS. Their 12.5 points allowed per game currently rank eighth in all of college football. What's even more impressive is the fact that they've outscored opposing teams 114-21 in the second half this season. Yeah, the Wolverines have only allowed 21 second half points six games into the season. They've also forced 17 turnovers.
Then there is Denard Robinson and his weekly stab at breaking another school or national record. The versatile quarterback has accounted for at least three touchdowns in each of the past five games.
Michigan State heads into their in-state rivalry coming off a bye week. The Spartans' last win came against Ohio State, where they held the Buckeyes to seven points. At the time, this seemed like a huge accomplishment, but after witnessing OSU play the last few weeks, the weight of the win is much lighter.
MSU's offensive stats won't run up and punch you in the face. Kirk Cousins is 101-149 for nearly 1200 passing yards on the season with six touchdown passes, but four picks. Leveon Bell is averaging 5.1 yards per carry to go along with six touchdowns. The team's 28.0 points per game rank in the bottom half of all FBS schools.
Using our college football simulation engine, we "played" the Wolverines and Spartans 101 times and its Michigan eeking out the win 50.5 percent of the time by an average score of 32-31.
Arizona State at Oregon
A dislocated elbow may not keep LaMichael James out of the lineup this Saturday against Arizona State. During a radio interview after their Week 6 win over California, James said he suffered the same injury in high school and was out on the field the next week. We'll monitor his health status throughout the week, but as of right now, we left him out of the simulation.
Even without James, the Ducks offense is just as fast and efficient. On the rare occasion they go to the air, quarterback Darron Thomas has thrown 15 touchdowns and only two picks this season. Running backs, De'Anthony Thomas and Kenjon Barner are averaging 7.6 and 6.2 yards per carry, respectively, with five touchdowns combined.
Since losing to Illinois back in Week 3, ASU has ripped off three straight wins against USC, Oregon State and Utah. The Sun Devils' rush defense sits in the middle of the FBS pack, having allowed 119.7 yards per game on the ground. This will be tested against the Ducks.
Their offense is led by quarterback Brock Osweiler who has completed 68 percent of his passes this season. Running back Cameron Marshall has rushed for 347 yards on 81 carries and scored seven times. Aaron Pflugrad has hauled in 25 passes for 372 yards with four touchdowns to this point.
We simulated the Ducks and the Sun Devils 101 times and its Oregon taking it 79.2 percent of the time by an average score 36-24.
Please note: The South Carolina/Mississippi State and Tennessee/LSU games were resimulated on 10/13 to account for injuries and roster updates.
College Football Week 7
|Miami (FL) Hurricanes||45.5||24||Boxscore|
|@ North Carolina Tar Heels||54.5||25|
|@ Maryland Terrapins||20.8||19|
|Virginia Tech Hokies||80.2||33||Boxscore|
|@ Wake Forest Demon Deacons||19.8||22|
|Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets||82.2||28||Boxscore|
|@ Virginia Cavaliers||17.8||16|
|Florida State Seminoles||83.2||34||Boxscore|
|@ Duke Blue Devils||16.8||21|
|@ Cincinnati Bearcats||77.2||29|
|@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights||49.5||23|
|@ Pittsburgh Panthers||44.1||25|
|South Florida Bulls||79.7||28||Boxscore|
|@ Connecticut Huskies||20.3||17|
|@ Wisconsin Badgers||95.0||47|
|@ Iowa Hawkeyes||66.3||29|
|@ Penn State Nittany Lions||65.3||27|
|@ Michigan State Spartans||49.5||31|
|Ohio State Buckeyes||55.4||25||Boxscore|
|@ Illinois Fighting Illini||44.6||21|
|Ball State Cardinals||10.4||17||Boxscore|
|@ Ohio Bobcats||89.6||30|
|Eastern Michigan Eagles||10.9||16||Boxscore|
|@ Central Michigan Chippewas||89.1||33|
|@ Temple Owls||81.2||29|
|Western Michigan Broncos||30.7||29||Boxscore|
|@ Northern Illinois Huskies||69.3||36|
|Miami (OH) RedHawks||51.5||22||Boxscore|
|@ Kent State Golden Flashes||48.5||21|
|@ Bowling Green Falcons||26.7||21|
|Arizona State Sun Devils||20.8||24||Boxscore|
|@ Oregon Ducks||79.2||36|
|@ Washington Huskies||66.3||29|
|Brigham Young Cougars||50.5||26||Boxscore|
|@ Oregon State Beavers||49.5||25|
|@ California Golden Bears||27.7||22|
|@ Washington State Cougars||5.0||20|
|@ Auburn Tigers||55.4||25|
|South Carolina Gamecocks||52.5||26||Boxscore|
|@ Mississippi State Bulldogs||47.5||24|
|@ Tennessee Volunteers||9.9||16|
|@ Vanderbilt Commodores||8.9||16|
|Alabama Crimson Tide||94.1||39||Boxscore|
|@ Mississippi Rebels||5.9||14|
|New Mexico Lobos||11.4||14||Boxscore|
|@ Nevada Wolf Pack||88.6||32|
|Utah State Aggies||37.6||25||Boxscore|
|@ Fresno State Bulldogs||62.4||31|
|@ New Mexico State Aggies||23.8||18|
|@ San Jose State Spartans||14.9||22|
|Iowa State Cyclones||13.9||16||Boxscore|
|@ Missouri Tigers||86.1||29|
|@ Texas A&M Aggies||57.4||35|
|Kansas State Wildcats||52.5||29||Boxscore|
|@ Texas Tech Red Raiders||47.5||27|
|Oklahoma State Cowboys||78.7||36||Boxscore|
|@ Texas Longhorns||21.3||26|
|@ Kansas Jayhawks||5.0||15|
|@ Tulsa Golden Hurricane||82.2||38|
|@ Southern Methodist Mustangs||66.3||34|
|@ Tulane Green Wave||64.4||30|
|@ Marshall Thundering Herd||63.4||28|
|East Carolina Pirates||94.1||37||Boxscore|
|@ Memphis Tigers||5.9||13|
|@ Wyoming Cowboys||81.2||24|
|San Diego State Aztecs||60.4||26||Boxscore|
|@ Air Force Falcons||39.6||23|
|Boise State Broncos||95.0||46||Boxscore|
|@ Colorado State Rams||5.0||15|
|@ Troy Trojans||64.4||29|
|North Texas Mean Green||47.5||25||Boxscore|
|@ Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns||52.5||26|
|Western Kentucky Hilltoppers||56.4||25||Boxscore|
|@ Florida Atlantic Owls||43.6||22|
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