College Football Week 12 Picks and Predictions From WhatIfSports.com image

College Football Week 12 Picks and Predictions

Week 12 predictions for every D-I/FBS college football game

WhatIfSports.com
November 11, 2013

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

Check out our 2013 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

Game of the Week: Oklahoma State at Texas

Less than two months ago, media speculation over the job security of Mack Brown was running rampant. Though the Longhorn faithful remain restless, Brown has recovered from a 1-2 start to navigate his team to a 6-0 record in the Big 12 conference, including a 36-20 win over Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry. A Big 12 championship is far from locked up, with two of the team's remaining opponents Oklahoma State and Baylor ranked in the AP Top 25 and another, Texas Tech, no slouch either. After needing overtime to beat West Virginia in Week 11, the Longhorns seem more likely to go 0-3 than 3-0 down the stretch, but at least Brown and the Longhorns control their destiny as they host the Cowboys in the WhatIfSports.com Game of the Week.

The Longhorns average nearly 10 more points than the opposition, scoring 34.4 points per game, 37th nationally. However, the offense will be without leading rusher Johnathan Gray for the remainder of the season. After totaling 780 yards and four scores in the season's first nine contests, Gray suffered an Achilles injury against West Virginia. Gray's absence means more touches for juniors Malcolm Brown and Joe Bergeron.

Given Gray's injury and the daunting remaining schedule, the Longhorns would greatly benefit from improved play at quarterback. Unfortunately, Case McCoy hasn't demonstrated much passing prowess this season. The senior has thrown six picks in the last four contests. While he did manage 283 yards and three scores against the Mountaineers, his 55.1 completion percentage was less-than-impressive against a defense that has given up the 10th-most passing yards per game.

Oklahoma State was less fortunate in its game against West Virginia, losing 30-21 in Week 5, the Cowboys' lone defeat. With an 8-1 record, a Big 12 championship is firmly within reach as the two schools ahead of Oklahoma State in the standings Texas and Baylor represent the Cowboys' next two opponents.

However, even with wins over the Longhorns and undefeated Bears, Oklahoma State may need to beat the Sooners in the season finale to ensure a share of the Big 12 crown. Hardly an easy road for the Cowboys, as their remaining opponents possess a combined 22-4 record.

Though Oklahoma State has fielded a few championship-caliber teams during the Mike Gundy coaching era, the Cowboys' defense has rarely been the toast of Stillwater. Not the case this year, as the Cowboys surrender the 20th-fewest points in the FBS at 19.7 points per game. The unit is strong against the pass and rush, boasting the ninth-best opponent passer rating in the country while allowing the 22nd-fewest yards per carry.

On offense, senior quarterback Clint Chelf has taken the reigns from sophomore J.W. Walsh. Though he's completed just 50.7 percent of his pass attempts, Chelf is a more explosive runner than Walsh, averaging 7.7 yards per rush. Speaking of the ground game, Desmond Roland and Jeremy Smith have combined for 19 scores, though neither is on pace to cross the 1,000-yard plateau.

So who wins this Big 12 battle with conference championship implications? According to the WhatIfSports.com college football simulation engine, the Cowboys beat the Longhorns 56.4 percent of the time by an average score of 27-22. For the rest of this week's predictions, check below:

College Football Week 12
MatchupWin%Avg Score 
Syracuse Orange10.917Boxscore
@ Florida State Seminoles89.132 
Maryland Terrapins29.717Boxscore
@ Virginia Tech Hokies70.322 
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets34.720Boxscore
@ Clemson Tigers65.326 
North Carolina State Wolfpack43.123Boxscore
@ Boston College Eagles56.924 
North Carolina Tar Heels46.521Boxscore
@ Pittsburgh Panthers53.522 
Miami (FL) Hurricanes55.927Boxscore
@ Duke Blue Devils44.124 
Purdue Boilermakers27.217Boxscore
@ Penn State Nittany Lions72.825 
Indiana Hoosiers27.722Boxscore
@ Wisconsin Badgers72.329 
Michigan Wolverines56.422Boxscore
@ Northwestern Wildcats43.621 
Michigan State Spartans69.323Boxscore
@ Nebraska Cornhuskers30.717 
Ohio State Buckeyes85.131Boxscore
@ Illinois Fighting Illini14.917 
Miami (OH) RedHawks37.117Boxscore
@ Kent State Golden Flashes62.922 
Ball State Cardinals42.628Boxscore
@ Northern Illinois Huskies57.429 
Buffalo Bulls46.525Boxscore
@ Toledo Rockets53.527 
Ohio Bobcats49.522Boxscore
@ Bowling Green Falcons50.523 
Central Michigan Chippewas61.928Boxscore
@ Western Michigan Broncos38.123 
Akron Zips75.226Boxscore
@ Massachusetts Minutemen24.817 
Utah Utes25.218Boxscore
@ Oregon Ducks74.826 
California Golden Bears43.621Boxscore
@ Colorado Buffaloes56.425 
Oregon State Beavers44.624Boxscore
@ Arizona State Sun Devils55.426 
Washington Huskies44.625Boxscore
@ UCLA Bruins55.427 
Washington State Cougars47.529Boxscore
@ Arizona Wildcats52.530 
Stanford Cardinal65.824Boxscore
@ USC Trojans34.218 
Troy Trojans18.820Boxscore
@ Ole Miss Rebels81.230 
Kentucky Wildcats22.817Boxscore
@ Vanderbilt Commodores77.225 
Florida Gators26.714Boxscore
@ South Carolina Gamecocks73.323 
Georgia Bulldogs46.520Boxscore
@ Auburn Tigers53.522 
Alabama Crimson Tide83.230Boxscore
@ Mississippi State Bulldogs16.818 
Idaho State Bengals 5.08Boxscore
@ BYU Cougars95.047 
South Alabama Jaguars45.024Boxscore
@ Navy Midshipmen55.026 
Iowa State Cyclones22.818Boxscore
@ Oklahoma Sooners77.227 
TCU Horned Frogs28.218Boxscore
@ Kansas State Wildcats71.823 
Texas Tech Red Raiders46.528Boxscore
@ Baylor Bears53.530 
Oklahoma State Cowboys56.427Boxscore
@ Texas Longhorns43.622 
West Virginia Mountaineers65.326Boxscore
@ Kansas Jayhawks34.720 
UAB Blazers23.822Boxscore
@ East Carolina Pirates76.230 
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs33.720Boxscore
@ Rice Owls66.326 
FIU Golden Panthers34.721Boxscore
@ UTEP Miners65.326 
Florida Atlantic Owls60.422Boxscore
@ Southern Miss Golden Eagles39.620 
Marshall Thundering Herd70.326Boxscore
@ Tulsa Golden Hurricane29.720 
Wyoming Cowboys24.824Boxscore
@ Boise State Broncos75.233 
Colorado State Rams55.026Boxscore
@ New Mexico Lobos45.022 
San Jose State Spartans66.329Boxscore
@ Nevada Wolf Pack33.723 
San Diego State Aztecs69.324Boxscore
@ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors30.718 
Texas State Bobcats49.022Boxscore
@ Arkansas State Red Wolves51.024 
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns83.731Boxscore
@ Georgia State Panthers16.318 
Houston Cougars32.725Boxscore
@ Louisville Cardinals67.329 
Connecticut Huskies38.622Boxscore
@ SMU Mustangs61.426 
Memphis Tigers42.119Boxscore
@ South Florida Bulls57.923 
Cincinnati Bearcats50.523Boxscore
@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights49.522 
UCF Knights84.230Boxscore
@ Temple Owls15.817 
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Jake Westrich is the Digital Content Coordinator for WhatIfSports.com. He can be reached at jwestrich@whatifsports.com.

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