Super Bowl XLIX Prop Bet Predictions From WhatIfSports.com image

Super Bowl XLIX Prop Bet Predictions

Predictions for such important matters as the coin toss and Bill Belichick's hoodie color

WhatIfSports.com
January 27, 2015

Prior to the kickoff of last year's Super Bowl, the editorial staff at WhatIfSports.com had already experienced a gamut of emotions, from the high of accurately predicting the coin toss to the low of botching our national anthem wager. Such is the life of a prop bet enthusiast, living and dying with every Gisele Bundchen camera shot or eagerly awaiting Punxsutawney Phil's emergence to learn the result of a Groundhog Day parlay.

You too can experience the anguish and reward of Super Bowl prop bets, whether you're putting real money on the line or just playing for pride amongst friends. With the help of our NFL simulation engine, we've compiled predictions for some of the most popular prop bets of Super Bowl XLIX:

 
Prop BetVegas OddsWIS Prediction
Coin TossHeads (-105)
Tails (-105)
Tails
Idina Menzel's National Anthem2 minute, 1 secondUnder
Gatorade Shower ColorOrange (3/2)Orange
Yellow (5/2)
Clear/Water (3/1)
Red (15/2)
Blue (15/2)
Green (10/1)
"Deflated" MentionsO/U - (3.0)Under
Bill Belichick Hoodie ColorGray (-200)Blue
Blue (+175)
Red (+700)

Prop Bet Analysis

Coin Toss - A coin toss is the ultimate 50/50 proposition and it was our belief in a return to equilibrium that enabled us to correctly pick tails a season ago. Heads held a 24-23 lead going into last year's Super Bowl, so it stood to reason that tails was due. But now with heads and tails all tied up, it's anyone's guess. We can say with a modicum of confidence that a tails result will likely favor the Seahawks, while a heads flip is more likely to favor the Patriots. Seattle is 2-0 in the Super Bowl with the tails call and New England has found itself cheering for heads in its last four Super Bowl appearances and six of seven times overall. We also know that the NFC has won 15 of the last 17 tosses. With that in mind, we're predicting the NFC dominance to continue with a tails toss.

Idina Menzel's National Anthem - Perhaps most recognizable as the voice of Elsa from the movie "Frozen," Menzel has experience working the national anthem circuit. Her performance at the 2014 MLB All-Star Game was Super Bowl-caliber, complete with an enormous American flag covering most of the outfield and a military jet flyover. Despite those distractions, Menzel clocked an unofficial 1 minute, 59 seconds. With that recent rendition in mind, we're betting she finishes under 2 minutes, 1 second.

Gatorade Shower - In the waning moments of last year's Super Bowl, Zach Miller and Russell Wilson joined forces to douse coach Pete Carroll. Their Gatorade color of choice: orange. Miller's season-ending ankle injury might limit his participation in the ritual Gatorade shower, but if the Seahawks win (and we predict they will), look for orange to again be the go-to color.

If you're predicting a New England win, orange may be a bit too flashy. In three Super Bowl victories, Belichick has twice avoided a shower. It was only in 2005 that Tedy Bruschi had the nerve to drench his coach. Even then, Bruschi opted for ice water, as anything more colorful could have risked staining Belichick's favorite hoodie.

Deflated Mentions - Deflategate has been all the rage leading up to Super Bowl XLIX. It's sure to be part of the pregame broadcast, perhaps with some discussion of the impartial staff handling the game-day balls. But the bet parameters state that any mention of "deflated" or "deflate" must occur between the opening kickoff and the final whistle. It's our belief that Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth will keep the attention on the game at hand, so we'll take the under. However, be weary of a blowout. If the broadcast crew is short on storylines, deflation will make for easy subject matter.

Bill Belichick Hoodie Color - It's official. We've put more thought into Belichick's Super Bowl wardrobe than he's given his appearance all season.

First, let's eliminate red (+700). Belichick has yet to wear a red hoodie this year. He did dawn red in Super Bowl XLII, also in Glendale, Arizona, but the Patriots fell 17-14 to the New York Giants. Belichick won't make that mistake again. Oddsmakers are betting on gray (-200), but Belichick wore a gray hoodie just five of 18 games this season. He dressed in gray for two previous Super Bowls, the most recent resulting in a 21-17 loss to the Giants. Gray is out.

That leaves blue (+175), which has been the hoodie color of choice for 10 games this season. Blue also has momentum on its side, having been worn in both of New England's playoff games. The smart money is on blue. However, don't be surprised if this bet results in no action. (As the Bovoda Sportsbook says, "No Hoodie is No Action.") Belichick bucked the trend and wore a blue jacket three times in 2014. He also wore a blue jacket in his first two Super Bowl appearances, both Patriots victories.

Our NFL simulation engine also generated predictions for the following in-game prop bets:

 
Prop BetVegas OddsWIS Prediction
Score FirstPatriots (-115)Patriots - 50.4%
Seahawks (-115)
First Player TDLuke Willson (16/1)5.5%
Jermaine Kearse (14/1)5.8%
Doug Baldwin (12/1)6.2%
Brandon LaFell (12/1)7.5%
Julian Edelman (10/1)8.0%
Rob Gronkowski (13/2)8.4%
LeGarrette Blount (9/1)12.0%
Marshawn Lynch (11/2)17.0%
Super Bowl XLIX MVPLuke Willson (66/1)0.3%
Julian Edelman (16/1)0.7%
Doug Baldwin (33/1)1.4%
Rob Gronkowski (9/1)1.8%
LeGarrette Blount (12/1)3.1%
Marshawn Lynch (9/2)22.6%
Russell Wilson (7/2)32.0%
Tom Brady (7/4)37.3%


 
Team1st Qtr.2nd Qtr.3rd Qtr.4th Qtr.
New England Patriots4.37.33.76.6
Seattle Seahawks4.57.34.47.2

Simulate Super Bowl XLIX

 
Team1st Qtr.2nd Qtr.3rd Qtr.4th Qtr.
New England Patriots3101320
Seattle Seahawks3101724

View our Super Bowl XLIX Prediction

 
TeamLast 2 Minutes of HalfLast 2 Minutes of Game
New England Patriots52.3%34.4%
Seattle Seahawks51.8%33.9%

Super Bowl XLIX doesn't have to be your last taste of football until September. Let WhatIfSports.com provide your daily fix. Create your ultimate roster using our Dream Teams feature. Then take that roster and simulate it against ANY TEAM IN NFL HISTORY using our NFL SimMatchup tool.

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Jake Westrich is the Digital Content Coordinator for WhatIfSports.com. He can be reached at jwestrich@whatifsports.com.

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