Ichiro's 3000th Hit - 142 to go! First Ballot HOF! Topic

lad_buck
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do u ever talk to yourself and find yourself to be so smart and too smart to even understand what u are saying to yourself?
8/27/2013 11:49 AM
lad_buck
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(not u burnsy, the other guy)
8/27/2013 11:51 AM
bad_luck
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Posted by tecwrg on 8/27/2013 9:44:00 AM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 8/27/2013 9:39:00 AM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 8/27/2013 9:34:00 AM (view original):
FWIW, I looked up his game log, and most of the time he came out because his team was up or down by a large margin.  Strange that a ballplayer in his mid 20s is being rested late in games so much, but yea, there's that.
He also had a Damon-like arm.   Not sure we'll find any stats to back that up but, if you google Rickey Henderson and check enough articles, it can be confirmed.
Advanced fielding stats for Rickey at b-r.com indicate that he had a below-average arm for CF, with an Rof value of -2.

Rof -- Total Zone Outfield Arm Runs Above Avg
The number of runs above or below average the player was worth based on baserunner kills and baserunner advances.
Rtz: Total Zone Fielding Runs Above Average

In 1985 Mattingly was at -1. Now, one year of total zone doesn't really tell us much (for Mattingly or Henderson). So let's look at the career numbers:

In 14 1B "seasons" according to BR, Mattingly has a Rtz of 21 (he lost some points as an OF, but I'm ignoring those negatives and looking at 1B only). In 13 "seasons" as a CF, Henderson's Rtz is at 28 (also ignoring the 66 he had in LF and the -10 he had in RF).

I don't think either of those numbers are conclusive, but, if you think they have credibility (and apparently you think Total Zone is credible) then the ability gap between the players at their respective positions was small. They both look slightly above average.

A slightly above average CF is significantly more valuable than a slightly above average 1B, even more so if he is just as good offensively.
8/27/2013 11:51 AM
burnsy483
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I'm not sure what "seasons" means but Rickey played 2-3 full seasons in CF.  Started 407 games.
8/27/2013 11:55 AM
lad_buck
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ichiro can easily get in unless he retires in a year with multiple sluggers. that aspect favoring the slugger will never change. that aspect alone may not place ichiro as unanimous or as a top vote getter. retiring in the same year as other sluggers is an arbitrary event in the career of a baseball player but it can only happen to those who do not fit the factory mold that determines sluggers. yes the media-friendly aspect of any baseball player eligible for the hall is as sure as death and taxes. cannot get around it despite bad lucks inability to see pot holes on all those different roads he travels.
8/27/2013 11:59 AM
tecwrg
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Posted by bad_luck on 8/27/2013 11:51:00 AM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 8/27/2013 9:44:00 AM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 8/27/2013 9:39:00 AM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 8/27/2013 9:34:00 AM (view original):
FWIW, I looked up his game log, and most of the time he came out because his team was up or down by a large margin.  Strange that a ballplayer in his mid 20s is being rested late in games so much, but yea, there's that.
He also had a Damon-like arm.   Not sure we'll find any stats to back that up but, if you google Rickey Henderson and check enough articles, it can be confirmed.
Advanced fielding stats for Rickey at b-r.com indicate that he had a below-average arm for CF, with an Rof value of -2.

Rof -- Total Zone Outfield Arm Runs Above Avg
The number of runs above or below average the player was worth based on baserunner kills and baserunner advances.
Rtz: Total Zone Fielding Runs Above Average

In 1985 Mattingly was at -1. Now, one year of total zone doesn't really tell us much (for Mattingly or Henderson). So let's look at the career numbers:

In 14 1B "seasons" according to BR, Mattingly has a Rtz of 21 (he lost some points as an OF, but I'm ignoring those negatives and looking at 1B only). In 13 "seasons" as a CF, Henderson's Rtz is at 28 (also ignoring the 66 he had in LF and the -10 he had in RF).

I don't think either of those numbers are conclusive, but, if you think they have credibility (and apparently you think Total Zone is credible) then the ability gap between the players at their respective positions was small. They both look slightly above average.

A slightly above average CF is significantly more valuable than a slightly above average 1B, even more so if he is just as good offensively.
What is the key "metric" that goes into Rtz?

Rickey only played two seasons fulltime in CF - '85 and '86.  1985, the Yankees had a very big fly-ball pitching staff.  I assume they also did in '86.

If range factor carries a lot of weight in Rtz, then that would artifically inflate Rickey's numbers as a CF as he would be getting more chances.  Likewise, it would artifically deflate Mattingly's numbers as more fly ball outs --> fewer ground ball outs.

You can't look at selected numbers in a vacuum and draw meaningful conclusion.
8/27/2013 12:04 PM
bad_luck
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Posted by burnsy483 on 8/27/2013 11:56:00 AM (view original):
I'm not sure what "seasons" means but Rickey played 2-3 full seasons in CF.  Started 407 games.
That's why I put it in quotes. They count it as a season if he made an appearance. By BR's standard, Henderson had 25 seasons of LF, 13 seasons of CF, and 4 seasons of RF. But Rtz isn't a rate stat, it's cumulative like runs or RBI, so it doesn't make much of a difference.
8/27/2013 12:06 PM
bad_luck
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Posted by tecwrg on 8/27/2013 12:04:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 8/27/2013 11:51:00 AM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 8/27/2013 9:44:00 AM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 8/27/2013 9:39:00 AM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 8/27/2013 9:34:00 AM (view original):
FWIW, I looked up his game log, and most of the time he came out because his team was up or down by a large margin.  Strange that a ballplayer in his mid 20s is being rested late in games so much, but yea, there's that.
He also had a Damon-like arm.   Not sure we'll find any stats to back that up but, if you google Rickey Henderson and check enough articles, it can be confirmed.
Advanced fielding stats for Rickey at b-r.com indicate that he had a below-average arm for CF, with an Rof value of -2.

Rof -- Total Zone Outfield Arm Runs Above Avg
The number of runs above or below average the player was worth based on baserunner kills and baserunner advances.
Rtz: Total Zone Fielding Runs Above Average

In 1985 Mattingly was at -1. Now, one year of total zone doesn't really tell us much (for Mattingly or Henderson). So let's look at the career numbers:

In 14 1B "seasons" according to BR, Mattingly has a Rtz of 21 (he lost some points as an OF, but I'm ignoring those negatives and looking at 1B only). In 13 "seasons" as a CF, Henderson's Rtz is at 28 (also ignoring the 66 he had in LF and the -10 he had in RF).

I don't think either of those numbers are conclusive, but, if you think they have credibility (and apparently you think Total Zone is credible) then the ability gap between the players at their respective positions was small. They both look slightly above average.

A slightly above average CF is significantly more valuable than a slightly above average 1B, even more so if he is just as good offensively.
What is the key "metric" that goes into Rtz?

Rickey only played two seasons fulltime in CF - '85 and '86.  1985, the Yankees had a very big fly-ball pitching staff.  I assume they also did in '86.

If range factor carries a lot of weight in Rtz, then that would artifically inflate Rickey's numbers as a CF as he would be getting more chances.  Likewise, it would artifically deflate Mattingly's numbers as more fly ball outs --> fewer ground ball outs.

You can't look at selected numbers in a vacuum and draw meaningful conclusion.
You can't look at selected numbers in a vacuum and draw meaningful conclusion

You just did that with Rof. And, I'm not really drawing a meaningful conclusion. I'm saying that maybe there's evidence that neither one was a superstar in the field.

Regardless, a league average (does that work for you?) CF has more defensive value than even a very good first baseman.

Then, looking at the offense for each player, Rickey pulls ahead. And then you add the stolen bases and it isn't close.

8/27/2013 12:10 PM
tecwrg
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I did not do that with Rof.  I used it as backing evidence to the general knowledge that Henderson had a weak arm.  One of your magical advanced statistics even backs that up.

Henderson was also not a "league average" CF.  He was below average.  Don't you think that, with his offensive abilities, if he was a league average CF he would have played more than 2 fulltime seasons at the position?
8/27/2013 12:37 PM
lad_buck
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officially class is now underway for the next ninety minutes. attendance in this classroom here is fifty three. there is also another class that will be here after this session ends. your moderator today will not be myself. we have another student here who brought a weed eater with rechargeable batteries so as to make this landscape much more appealing. advanced notice that she is here to obliterate your numbers used in lame arguments that history should be changed in accord with your discoveries. please continue.
8/27/2013 12:40 PM
burnsy483
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Posted by tecwrg on 8/27/2013 12:37:00 PM (view original):
I did not do that with Rof.  I used it as backing evidence to the general knowledge that Henderson had a weak arm.  One of your magical advanced statistics even backs that up.

Henderson was also not a "league average" CF.  He was below average.  Don't you think that, with his offensive abilities, if he was a league average CF he would have played more than 2 fulltime seasons at the position?
Henderson had a weak arm.  Advanced metrics backs that up.  So they are right.

Henderson was below average overall in the field.  Advanced metrics does not back that up.  So they are wrong.

Got it.
8/27/2013 12:42 PM
bad_luck
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Posted by burnsy483 on 8/27/2013 12:42:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 8/27/2013 12:37:00 PM (view original):
I did not do that with Rof.  I used it as backing evidence to the general knowledge that Henderson had a weak arm.  One of your magical advanced statistics even backs that up.

Henderson was also not a "league average" CF.  He was below average.  Don't you think that, with his offensive abilities, if he was a league average CF he would have played more than 2 fulltime seasons at the position?
Henderson had a weak arm.  Advanced metrics backs that up.  So they are right.

Henderson was below average overall in the field.  Advanced metrics does not back that up.  So they are wrong.

Got it.
"The stat is only valid if it tells me what I already know."  - Tec
8/27/2013 12:49 PM
lad_buck
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So, we are dropping names here (from ESPN) to support these arguments ?  Why do we need names, if the names are prefaced with the word expert ?  Can we compare experts before a general assumption is made, mid-argument ?  It is generally accepted that an interview with any sportswriter who is associated with voting for the Hall of Fame yields no indication that they consider fielding statistics when determining which candidates will get their vote. It is moot when reviewing the past statistics of those enshrined in Cooperstown. Care to argue further that defensive numbers were never designed to provide sportswriters with neccessary validation to be in the Hall of Fame ?
8/27/2013 12:51 PM
tecwrg
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Posted by burnsy483 on 8/27/2013 12:42:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 8/27/2013 12:37:00 PM (view original):
I did not do that with Rof.  I used it as backing evidence to the general knowledge that Henderson had a weak arm.  One of your magical advanced statistics even backs that up.

Henderson was also not a "league average" CF.  He was below average.  Don't you think that, with his offensive abilities, if he was a league average CF he would have played more than 2 fulltime seasons at the position?
Henderson had a weak arm.  Advanced metrics backs that up.  So they are right.

Henderson was below average overall in the field.  Advanced metrics does not back that up.  So they are wrong.

Got it.
Which "advanced metric" says that Henderson was not a below average CF?
8/27/2013 12:54 PM
bad_luck
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Posted by tecwrg on 8/27/2013 12:37:00 PM (view original):
I did not do that with Rof.  I used it as backing evidence to the general knowledge that Henderson had a weak arm.  One of your magical advanced statistics even backs that up.

Henderson was also not a "league average" CF.  He was below average.  Don't you think that, with his offensive abilities, if he was a league average CF he would have played more than 2 fulltime seasons at the position?
Look, you wanted to use total zone, not me. Go complain to your mom.

Who knows why Henderson moved off CF. Maybe he hated it. Maybe he really wasn't very good overall. Maybe it wore him out and would have reduced his offensive effectiveness. Regardless, in 1985, he was at least league average, likely better than league average.

Going back to offense, pick a better-than-BA stat -- wOBA, wRC+, OPS, OPS+, oWAR...whatever. All of them will put Rickey equal to or better than Mattingly in 1985.

Even ignoring the 80 stolen bases, how can you pick the 1B over the CF in this situation?
8/27/2013 12:55 PM
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Ichiro's 3000th Hit - 142 to go! First Ballot HOF! Topic
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