OK, first a slight factual correction, but I will address your actual question also.
As #3 - 1682 PA
As #4 - 3944 PA
As #5 - 1083 PA
I cannot believe that no one bothered to actually check whether Edgar was batting 5th that often, but apparently no one did. He wasn't.
Even in 1998, he hit 5th in 42 games, compared to cleanup in 103. But OK. I went through about 20 box scores and finally found 1 with him batting 5th (
here). In that game, 6th was Buhner. But Wilson did bat 6th in 14 games that season, so there certainly could have been one where Wilson followed Martinez.
In 1998, Edgar hit .322. So (focusing for a moment on the 1-run-is-all-we-care-about, and assuming no inf hits for Edgar), he scores a guy in the 2 outs, 1st and 3rd situation 32.2% of the time (I am intentionally excluding reach on error, but will bring them in if someone thinks it makes a big difference).
In 1998, Buhner got on base at a .344 clip, so he scores a guy in the 2 outs, 1st and 3rd situation (plus an Edgar walk) 34.4% of the time.
In 1998, Wilson got on base at a .308 clip, so he scores a guy in the 2 outs, 1st and 3rd situation (plus an Edgar walk) 30.8% of the time.
So yes, if there was a game where Wilson batted after Edgar (there weren't many), and if in that game there was a situation where Edgar come to the plate with 2 out and men on 1st and 3rd, and if in that situation in that game Seattle needed one and only 1 run and has no need for the possible benefit of addition runs, and if Edgar's batting average would not decline at all knowing he had to swing at what was offered, then yes - Scenario 2 (the one you prefer) would lead to a single run slightly under 3 times out of 200 [where Scenario 1 would not *edited for clarity*].
2/7/2014 3:38 PM (edited)