Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 2:26:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 8:23:00 AM (view original):
Here, I'll break it down(and I think this is tec's argument too):
A runner on 2nd with two down and a .320 hitter at the plate. Assuming he doesn't choke like EM apparently did during his career(.269), you have a 32% chance of scoring a run. If there's a .250 hitter at the plate, you have a 25% chance of scoring a run.
Obviously, if the .320 hitter walks, you still have a 25% of scoring a run but the odds of scoring two runs increases. And you now have a chance to score three runs which was not possible without the walk. And this is where everything went bonkers. No one has disputed the possibility of multiple runs increasing with the walk.
But, if I'm in a close game, or there are two aces battling it out that day, I want that ONE run. And I want the better hitter attempting to get me that run.
THIS is what tec and I have been arguing.
Can't you guys retain anyfuckingthing for more than 3 minutes?
It's always better to have two guys on base as opposed to one. Even if the next hitter isn't as good.
Unless one run ends the game. And Martinez walked a grand total of one time (excluding IBB) with a runner on 2nd or 3rd when one run would have ended the game.